On (ONON)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $48.31 | Market Cap: $30.5 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Footwear
On (ONON)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $48.31Market Cap: $30.5 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Footwear
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 9.3x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 64x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 119x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% | Key risksONON key risks include [1] heavy reliance on third-party manufacturing concentrated in Asia, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Sustainable Consumption, and Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Sustainable Consumption, and Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 9.3x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 64x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 119x |
| Key risksONON key risks include [1] heavy reliance on third-party manufacturing concentrated in Asia, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ONON Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for the movement of On (ONON) stock for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:
1. Strong Q3 2025 Earnings Beat. On Holding AG reported third-quarter 2025 financial results on November 12, 2025, significantly exceeding analyst expectations. The company announced net sales of CHF 794.4 million against estimates of CHF 777.0 million, and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of CHF 0.43, substantially higher than the CHF 0.25 per share anticipated by analysts.
2. Enthusiastic Market Reaction to Earnings. Following the robust Q3 2025 earnings report, investors responded positively, with On Holding shares surging approximately 8.7% in pre-market trading. One report even indicated a 24.93% increase in the stock price, closing at $43.41, directly after the earnings announcement, reflecting strong investor confidence.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ONON Return | � | � | -55% | 57% | 103% | -12% | � |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | � | � | -15% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ONON Win Rate | � | 67% | 33% | 50% | 58% | 42% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | � | � | 57% | 47% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ONON Max Drawdown | � | � | -58% | -1% | -3% | -36% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | -46% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NKE, DECK, LULU, AS, VFC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ONON | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -68.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 221.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 717 days | 464 days |
Compare to WWW, WEYS, FOSL, FWDI, ONON
In The Past
On's stock fell -68.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/17/2021. A -68.9% loss requires a 221.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Would You Still Hold On Stock If It Fell 30%? | Return | |
| Fundamental Metrics: ... |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ONON. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.3% | 15.3% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.3% | 15.3% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for On
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 56.89 |
| Mkt Cap | 20.2 |
| Rev LTM | 7,821 |
| Op Inc LTM | 945 |
| FCF LTM | 880 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 804 |
| CFO LTM | 968 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 893 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 12.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 14.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 12.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 11.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 10.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 14.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 10.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 20.2 |
| P/S | 2.6 |
| P/EBIT | 14.1 |
| P/E | 48.8 |
| P/CFO | 15.6 |
| Total Yield | 3.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.1% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 24.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 6.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 3.1% |
| 12M Rtn | -15.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | -22.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 24.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 2.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -9.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -25.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -96.2% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11122025 | 6-K 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8122025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5132025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3042025 | 20-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8132024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5142024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3122024 | 20-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11142023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8152023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5162023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3212023 | 20-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11162022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8162022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5172022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3182022 | 20-F 12/31/2021 |
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