On (ONON)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $47.0 | Market Cap: $29.9 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Footwear
On (ONON)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $47.0Market Cap: $29.9 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Footwear
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 12x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 214x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 80x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 244x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.8% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Sustainable Consumption, and Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Sustainable Consumption, and Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 12x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 214x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 80x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 244x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.8% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ONON Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for why On (ONON) stock moved by approximately 4.4% between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025:
1. Strong Q3 2025 Earnings Beat: On Holding AG reported robust financial results for the third quarter of 2025 on November 12, 2025, significantly surpassing analyst expectations for both earnings per share and revenue. This strong performance, with earnings beating projections by approximately 74%, led to a substantial positive reaction in its stock price, including an approximate 8.7% rise in pre-market trading.
2. Raised Full-Year 2025 Guidance: Following the impressive Q3 results, On raised its full-year 2025 guidance across key metrics, including an expected net sales growth of 34% year-over-year on a constant currency basis and a gross profit margin of around 62.5%. This upward revision signaled strong confidence from management in the company's sustained momentum and future performance.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ONON Return | - | - | -55% | 57% | 103% | -18% | 19% |
| Peers Return | -7% | 14% | -36% | 6% | 61% | 10% | 27% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ONON Win Rate | - | 67% | 33% | 50% | 58% | 30% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 25% | 47% | 32% | 42% | 43% | 35% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ONON Max Drawdown | - | - | -58% | -1% | -3% | -36% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -34% | -3% | -41% | -21% | -15% | -33% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WWW, WEYS, FOSL, FWDI, ONON.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ONON | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -68.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 221.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 717 days | 464 days |
Compare to WWW, WEYS, FOSL, FWDI, ONON
In The Past
On's stock fell -68.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/17/2021. A -68.9% loss requires a 221.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| On Stock Jump Looks Great, But How Secure Is That Gain? | Return | |
| Fundamental Metrics: ... |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ONON. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for On
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 17.46 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.9 |
| Rev LTM | 1,084 |
| Op Inc LTM | 33 |
| FCF LTM | 33 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 44 |
| CFO LTM | 34 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 47 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -10.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | -8.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -2.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 3.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 4.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.9 |
| P/S | 1.2 |
| P/EBIT | 12.2 |
| P/E | 18.7 |
| P/CFO | 19.3 |
| Total Yield | 2.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 8.1% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 24.0% |
| 3M Rtn | 9.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 7.1% |
| 12M Rtn | -11.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 60.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 24.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -0.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -7.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -24.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -8.5% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8122025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5132025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3042025 | 20-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8132024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5142024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3122024 | 20-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11142023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8152023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5162023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3212023 | 20-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11162022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8162022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5172022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3182022 | 20-F 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11162021 | 6-K 9/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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