On (ONON)
Market Price (1/20/2026): $45.0 | Market Cap: $28.4 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Footwear
On (ONON)
Market Price (1/20/2026): $45.0Market Cap: $28.4 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Footwear
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 9.9x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 116x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 69x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 127x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.4% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Sustainable Consumption, and Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more. | Key risksONON key risks include [1] heavy reliance on third-party manufacturing concentrated in Asia, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Sustainable Consumption, and Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 9.9x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 116x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 69x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 127x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.4% |
| Key risksONON key risks include [1] heavy reliance on third-party manufacturing concentrated in Asia, Show more. |
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are key points explaining the negative movement of ONON's stock:
1. Negative Technical Performance and Market Lagging: ONON has received poor technical ratings, with an overall score of 2 out of 10, indicating below-average performance in the market. Both its medium and short-term trends show negative signs, and it has been outperformed by 78% of other stocks in the past year. The stock is also lagging the broader market, as the S&P500 Index has been trading near new highs while ONON remains in the middle of its 52-week range.
2. Analyst Downgrades: Several analyst firms issued downgrades for ONON during this period. For example, Williams Trading downgraded On Holding (ONON) from "Buy" to "Hold" on January 9, 2026. Zacks Research also downgraded ONON to a "Hold" rating on January 14, 2026. These downgrades reflect a cautious outlook from financial analysts.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 21.3% change in ONON stock from 10/31/2025 to 1/19/2026 was primarily driven by a 55.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| 10312025 | 1192026 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 37.15 | 45.05 | 21.27% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2718.20 | 2876.80 | 5.83% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.00% | 7.80% | 55.95% |
| P/E Multiple | 174.02 | 126.81 | -27.13% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 636.58 | 631.39 | 0.81% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 21.26% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 1/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ONON | 21.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.4% | 17.7% |
| Sector (XLY) | 1.9% | 14.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -7.2% change in ONON stock from 7/31/2025 to 1/19/2026 was primarily driven by a -15.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| 7312025 | 1192026 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 48.57 | 45.05 | -7.25% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2536.70 | 2876.80 | 13.41% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.18% | 7.80% | -4.73% |
| P/E Multiple | 149.45 | 126.81 | -15.15% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 638.78 | 631.39 | 1.16% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -7.26% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 1/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ONON | -7.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.7% | 27.6% |
| Sector (XLY) | 10.7% | 27.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -24.8% change in ONON stock from 1/31/2025 to 1/19/2026 was primarily driven by a -57.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| 1312025 | 1192026 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 59.88 | 45.05 | -24.77% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2158.80 | 2876.80 | 33.26% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.84% | 7.80% | 33.59% |
| P/E Multiple | 301.34 | 126.81 | -57.92% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 634.09 | 631.39 | 0.43% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -24.77% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2025 to 1/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ONON | -24.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.9% | 50.1% |
| Sector (XLY) | 6.1% | 52.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 94.2% change in ONON stock from 1/31/2023 to 1/19/2026 was primarily driven by a 174.9% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| 1312023 | 1192026 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 23.20 | 45.05 | 94.18% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1046.51 | 2876.80 | 174.90% |
| P/S Multiple | 6.52 | 9.89 | 51.55% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 294.29 | 631.39 | -114.55% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -160.62% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2023 to 1/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ONON | 94.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 76.5% | 43.9% |
| Sector (XLY) | 68.4% | 44.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ONON Return | 8% | -55% | 57% | 103% | -15% | -1% | 31% |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | 24% | -18% | 1% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 1% | 85% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ONON Win Rate | 50% | 33% | 50% | 58% | 42% | 0% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | � | 57% | 45% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 100% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ONON Max Drawdown | -17% | -58% | -1% | -3% | -36% | -3% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | -32% | -46% | -1% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | 0% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: NKE, DECK, LULU, AS, VFC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 1/16/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ONON | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -68.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 221.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 717 days | 464 days |
Compare to NKE, DECK, LULU, AS, VFC
In The Past
On's stock fell -68.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/17/2021. A -68.9% loss requires a 221.6% gain to breakeven.
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AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for On (ONON):
- The Lululemon of running shoes and athletic apparel.
- A premium, Swiss-engineered challenger to Nike and Adidas, focused on innovative running technology and sleek design.
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- Performance Running Shoes: High-performance athletic footwear featuring CloudTec® cushioning technology, designed for various running terrains and distances.
- Outdoor & Trail Footwear: Specialized shoes engineered for hiking, trail running, and outdoor adventures, offering durability and grip.
- Everyday & Lifestyle Footwear: Casual shoes that integrate performance technology with stylish designs, suitable for daily wear and urban exploration.
- Performance Apparel: A range of athletic clothing including tops, bottoms, and outerwear, designed for comfort and functionality during active pursuits.
- Accessories: Complementary items such as socks, hats, and bags, enhancing the overall athletic experience.
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On Holding AG (ONON)
On (On Holding AG) is a global sportswear company specializing in performance running shoes, apparel, and accessories. While On distributes its products through a network of wholesale partners (retailers) and directly through its own e-commerce channels and retail stores, its ultimate customers are individuals. Therefore, the company primarily serves the following categories of customers:
- Performance Runners: This core customer segment includes a wide range of runners, from casual joggers to elite athletes, who seek high-performance footwear and apparel for training, racing, and injury prevention. They value On's innovative CloudTec® technology for cushioning and propulsion, and often look for specialized gear for different running needs (e.g., road, trail, speed).
- Active Lifestyle Enthusiasts: These customers integrate fitness and movement into their daily lives, engaging in activities such as walking, gym workouts, light hiking, or general fitness. They prioritize comfort, versatility, and stylish design in their footwear and apparel for both athletic pursuits and everyday active wear, seeking products that support an active yet comfortable lifestyle.
- Fashion-Conscious Urban Consumers: This segment appreciates On's distinctive minimalist design, comfort, and sustainable focus for daily wear, urban commuting, and casual street style. They seek footwear and apparel that blends athletic functionality with modern aesthetics, valuing the brand's unique design language and understated sophistication.
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Martin Hoffmann, CEO & CFO
Martin Hoffmann serves as the CEO and CFO of On, having become the sole CEO effective July 1, 2025, and continuing to serve as CFO while a search for a new CFO is completed. He joined On in 2013 as CFO and became Co-CEO in 2021, playing a significant role in the company's 2021 public listing on the New York Stock Exchange. Prior to joining On, Mr. Hoffmann was the Chief Financial Officer of Valora Retail, a publicly traded European retail company, from 2009 to 2013. He also worked in strategic business management consulting at CTcon GmbH from 2003 to 2009. He holds a diploma in Business Management and Computer Science from the University of Kaiserslautern.
Caspar Coppetti, Co-Founder & Executive Co-Chairman
Caspar Coppetti co-founded On in 2010 alongside David Allemann and Olivier Bernhard. He has served as Executive Co-Chairman since April 2021 and was previously Chairman and Global Sales Director since January 2010. Mr. Coppetti holds a doctorate in Economics. His experience includes serving as a Managing Partner and Chief Strategy Officer for the brand agency Young & Rubicam from 2004 to 2010 and as a Management Consultant at McKinsey & Company from 2001 to 2003.
David Allemann, Co-Founder & Executive Co-Chairman
David Allemann is a co-founder of On, which he established in 2010 with Caspar Coppetti and Olivier Bernhard. As Executive Co-Chairman since April 2021, he has focused on product creation, establishing production, design, global marketing, branding, and scaling the direct-to-consumer business. Before On, Mr. Allemann was the Chief Marketing Officer for Vitra, a design furniture brand, from 2006 to 2010. He also held the position of Managing Director at the advertising agency Young & Rubicam in Switzerland from 2002 to 2006 and worked as a strategy consultant at McKinsey & Company from 2000 to 2002. He holds a Master of Law degree from the University of Zurich and completed an Advanced Management Programme at INSEAD Business School.
Olivier Bernhard, Co-Founder & Executive Board Member
Olivier Bernhard is a co-founder of On, established in 2010 with David Allemann and Caspar Coppetti. He is a former world champion triathlete and duathlete, and the company originated from his pursuit of the perfect running shoe. He focuses on product and innovation for the company.
Craig Jones, Chief Supply Chain Officer
Craig Jones joined On as Chief Supply Chain Officer in April 2025. Prior to his role at On, he served as SVP of Distribution and Logistics Operations at Levi Strauss. His previous experience also includes serving as CEO at Specialized and COO at Dyson.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The public company On (ONON) faces several key risks to its business operations and financial performance.- Supply Chain and Tariff Risks: On is significantly dependent on third-party partners for manufacturing, logistics, and distribution, with a substantial portion of its sourcing reportedly from Vietnam. This reliance exposes the company to risks such as disruptions, increased costs, and potential impacts on product quality and availability. Furthermore, the risk of new tariffs, particularly from China, could further compress margins due to the company's heavy reliance on imported materials and products and its manufacturing base in Asia.
- Foreign Exchange Headwinds: As a Swiss company, On reports its financials in Swiss Francs (CHF), while its sales and cost of goods sold are primarily in other currencies like the Euro and US Dollar. Fluctuations in exchange rates, particularly a weakening of the US Dollar against the Swiss Franc, can negatively impact the company's reported earnings and profit margins.
- Intensifying Competition and Maintaining Premium Strategy: The sportswear market is highly competitive, with established global players actively seeking to gain or regain market share. On's strategy relies on its premium positioning, product innovation, and distinct brand identity. There is a risk that increased competition could lead to competitors offering similar features at lower price points, making it challenging for On to sustain its premium pricing and market differentiation. Additionally, aggressive global expansion efforts could lead to margin pressure if consumer demand shifts or if new markets and categories do not scale as expected, potentially diluting the brand's identity.
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The addressable markets for On's (ONON) main products and services are substantial on a global scale.
For its core product category of footwear, particularly running shoes, the global market size is significant. The global running shoes market was valued at approximately USD 52.18 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to nearly USD 77.68 billion by 2032. Another estimate places the global running shoes industry at US$ 45.7 billion in 2024, with a projection to reach US$ 73.0 billion by the end of 2035. The broader global outdoor footwear market, which includes various types of outdoor shoes, was valued at USD 42.13 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 79.21 billion by 2031.
In the apparel segment, On operates within the larger global sportswear market. This market was estimated at USD 335.92 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 646.01 billion by 2030. A more specific sub-segment, the global outdoor apparel market, was estimated at USD 17.47 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow to USD 29.85 billion in 2034.
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On (symbol: ONON) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:
- International Expansion and Market Penetration: The company anticipates significant growth from expanding its presence in international markets, particularly in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) and Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) regions. APAC, including key markets like China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Australia, has shown extraordinary year-over-year growth, with management indicating that international expansion is still in its early stages. This geographic diversification is crucial for increasing market share and overall revenue.
- Growth of the Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) Channel: On is strategically investing in and expanding its DTC channels, including e-commerce and its network of flagship stores globally. This channel has consistently outperformed, contributing to a higher mix of DTC sales and improved gross profit margins. The strong performance of flagship stores, such as the one in Chengdu, serves as a blueprint for future retail expansion, further enhancing consumer engagement and driving sales directly.
- Expansion of Apparel and Accessories: While footwear remains the primary revenue driver, the apparel and accessories segments are scaling rapidly and are identified as significant opportunities for future growth. The company is focused on executing well in the apparel business to boost its total addressable market and increase cross-selling opportunities, with apparel sales growing significantly year-over-year.
- New Product Launches and Strategic Innovation: On's ability to build a portfolio of strong franchises and introduce innovative product releases is a consistent driver of demand across its performance and lifestyle portfolios. Strategic innovation, such as LightSpray automated manufacturing, underpins its long-term premium positioning and is expected to contribute to sustained growth.
- Increased Brand Awareness and Market Share Gains: Strategic marketing and continued efforts to elevate brand awareness among its communities are expected to drive revenue growth through increased consumer engagement and market penetration. The company aims to further elevate its market share in running and enhance its performance credibility globally.
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Share Issuance
- On Holding AG completed its Initial Public Offering (IPO) on September 17, 2021.
- The IPO involved the offering of 31,100,000 Class A ordinary shares at a public offering price of $24.00 per share.
- On offered 25,442,391 Class A ordinary shares, generating gross proceeds of $858.4 million (including the exercise in full of the underwriters' option to purchase additional shares).
Capital Expenditures
- On's capital expenditures (cash outflows) were approximately -$20.94 million in 2020, -$39.31 million in 2021, -$89.09 million in 2022, -$54.58 million in 2023, and an estimated -$72.90 million for 2024.
- For the trailing twelve months ended June 2025, capital expenditures were approximately -$79.96 million.
- These capital expenditures primarily focus on acquiring or upgrading physical assets, including property, industrial buildings, and equipment.
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Peer Comparisons for On
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Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 54.71 |
| Mkt Cap | 22.3 |
| Rev LTM | 7,821 |
| Op Inc LTM | 945 |
| FCF LTM | 880 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 804 |
| CFO LTM | 968 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 893 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 12.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 14.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 12.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 11.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 10.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 14.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 10.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.7% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $45.05 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 28.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 09/15/2021 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -29.2% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $45.07 | $47.17 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | up |
| Distance from DMA | -0.0% | -4.5% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 52.1% | 51.6% |
| Downside Capture | 119.86 | 164.74 |
| Upside Capture | 146.65 | 113.25 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 18.2% | 50.1% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.12 | 0.71 | 0.89 | 1.20 | 1.29 | 1.47 |
| Up Beta | -0.24 | -2.26 | -0.77 | 1.81 | 1.49 | 1.47 |
| Down Beta | 1.16 | 0.78 | 1.21 | 0.98 | 1.07 | 1.31 |
| Up Capture | 196% | 270% | 140% | 69% | 105% | 498% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 23 | 37 | 72 | 143 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 20 | 28 | 57 | 116 | 362 |
| Down Capture | 66% | 61% | 100% | 134% | 122% | 109% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 18 | 27 | 55 | 108 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 20 | 35 | 67 | 132 | 383 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
nullBased On 5-Year Data
nullBased On 10-Year Data
nullReturns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | |||
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2025 | 11/12/2025 | 6-K (09/30/2025) |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/12/2025 | 6-K (06/30/2025) |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/13/2025 | 6-K (03/31/2025) |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/04/2025 | 20-F (12/31/2024) |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/12/2024 | 6-K (09/30/2024) |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/13/2024 | 6-K (06/30/2024) |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/14/2024 | 6-K (03/31/2024) |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/12/2024 | 20-F (12/31/2023) |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/14/2023 | 6-K (09/30/2023) |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/15/2023 | 6-K (06/30/2023) |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/16/2023 | 6-K (03/31/2023) |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/21/2023 | 20-F (12/31/2022) |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/16/2022 | 6-K (09/30/2022) |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/16/2022 | 6-K (06/30/2022) |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/17/2022 | 6-K (03/31/2022) |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/18/2022 | 20-F (12/31/2021) |
External Quote Links
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