Olaplex (OLPX)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $1.17 | Market Cap: $780.5 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Other Specialty Retail
Olaplex (OLPX)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $1.17Market Cap: $780.5 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Other Specialty Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -96%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -151% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.5%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -16%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.8% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 8.3% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.7% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Luxury Consumer Goods, and Direct-to-Consumer Brands. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 8.3% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Luxury Consumer Goods, and Direct-to-Consumer Brands. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -96%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -151% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.5%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -16%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.8% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.7% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
OLPX Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
**1. Q3 2025 Financial Underperformance Highlighted Deteriorating Profitability and Sales Declines.**
Olaplex's third-quarter 2025 financial results, reported on November 6, 2025, showed a net sales decrease of 3.8% to $114.6 million compared to the same period in 2024. Additionally, net income fell to $11.1 million from $14.8 million in the prior year's third quarter, and adjusted EBITDA experienced a significant 31.0% decrease to $30.8 million. Selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses also saw a substantial rise of 49.2%. These declines in key profitability metrics, despite a revenue beat, likely contributed to a negative market sentiment over the period.
**2. Deteriorating Profitability from Q2 2025 Continued to Impact Investor Confidence.**
Although Olaplex's second-quarter 2025 earnings, reported on August 7, 2025 (just before the specified period), showed revenue exceeding expectations, the company swung to a net loss of $0.01 per share, missing consensus estimates. This mixed performance was further underscored by a significant drop in its operating margin, falling to -1.1% from 15.7% a year prior, primarily due to increased marketing and administrative overhead. This initial signal of weakening profitability likely sustained negative pressure on the stock into the subsequent months.
**3. Persistent Long-Term Declines in Sales and Earnings Per Share Signaled Fundamental Weakness.**
Several reports noted that Olaplex has experienced a consistent struggle with declining sales, with an annual rate of 16.4-17.3% over the past three years. Concurrently, earnings per share (EPS) declined by 49.6-50.8% annually over the same period, indicating that the company faced difficulties in translating sales into profit due to its fixed cost base and shrinking demand. These long-term trends likely reinforced a bearish outlook among investors.
**4. Analyst Downgrades and Reduced Price Targets Reflected Growing Caution.**
Throughout the period, various analyst firms expressed increasing caution regarding Olaplex's stock. Weiss Ratings reiterated a "sell (d)" rating on October 8, 2025. Furthermore, Barclays cut its price target from $1.50 to $1.25 and issued an "equal weight" rating on November 10, 2025. Wall Street Zen also downgraded Olaplex from a "hold" to a "sell" rating on November 29, 2025. This series of cautious and negative revisions from analysts likely contributed to the stock's downward trajectory.
**5. The Stock Reached a New 52-Week Low, Indicating Significant Investor Pessimism.**
Olaplex's stock hit a new 52-week low of $0.9923 on November 19, 2025. Reaching such a low point typically reflects a broad lack of investor confidence and strong downward momentum in the stock's price, signaling deep-seated concerns about the company's performance and future prospects.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| OLPX Return | - | - | -82% | -51% | -32% | -36% | -96% |
| Peers Return | 76% | 51% | -14% | 11% | 9% | -3% | 168% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| OLPX Win Rate | - | 67% | 25% | 33% | 50% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 68% | 43% | 57% | 48% | 42% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| OLPX Max Drawdown | - | - | -86% | -74% | -50% | -42% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -38% | -11% | -38% | -25% | -26% | -25% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TSCO, ULTA, CHWY, BBWI, WINA.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | OLPX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -95.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 2062.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to TSCO, ULTA, CHWY, BBWI, WINA
In The Past
Olaplex's stock fell -95.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/3/2022. A -95.4% loss requires a 2062.5% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Would You Still Hold Olaplex Stock If It Fell 30%? | Return | ||
| Olaplex (OLPX) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Olaplex (OLPX) Debt Comparison | Financials | ||
| Olaplex (OLPX) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Olaplex (OLPX) EBITDA Comparison | Financials | ||
| Olaplex (OLPX) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Olaplex (OLPX) Tax Expense Comparison | Financials | ||
| Olaplex (OLPX) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| Why Olaplex Stock Moved: OLPX Stock Has Lost 96% Since 2021 Fiscal End, Primarily Due To Unfavorable Change In Price To Sales Multiple (P/S) | |||
| OLPX Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| OLPX Stock Up 21% after 6-Day Win Streak | June 25th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to OLPX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| 09302023 | OLPX | Olaplex | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -1.5% | 20.0% | -35.4% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| 09302023 | OLPX | Olaplex | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -1.5% | 20.0% | -35.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Olaplex
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 44.01 |
| Mkt Cap | 9.0 |
| Rev LTM | 9,512 |
| Op Inc LTM | 712 |
| FCF LTM | 623 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 554 |
| CFO LTM | 806 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 762 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 11.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 15.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 12.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 9.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 9.0 |
| P/S | 1.9 |
| P/EBIT | 21.5 |
| P/E | 22.4 |
| P/CFO | 16.4 |
| Total Yield | 4.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.9% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.3% |
| 3M Rtn | -13.2% |
| 6M Rtn | -4.0% |
| 12M Rtn | -1.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | -4.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -19.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -18.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -14.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -71.8% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3042025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5112022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3082022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |