Tearsheet

Olaplex (OLPX)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $1.17 | Market Cap: $780.5 Mil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Other Specialty Retail

Olaplex (OLPX)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $1.17
Market Cap: $780.5 Mil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Other Specialty Retail

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -96%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -151%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.5%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -16%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.8%
1 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 8.3%
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.7%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Luxury Consumer Goods, and Direct-to-Consumer Brands.
  
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%
1 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 8.3%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Luxury Consumer Goods, and Direct-to-Consumer Brands.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -96%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -151%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.5%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -16%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.8%
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.7%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

OLPX Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

**1.   Q3 2025 Financial Underperformance Highlighted Deteriorating Profitability and Sales Declines.** Olaplex's third-quarter 2025 financial results, reported on November 6, 2025, showed a net sales decrease of 3.8% to $114.6 million compared to the same period in 2024. Additionally, net income fell to $11.1 million from $14.8 million in the prior year's third quarter, and adjusted EBITDA experienced a significant 31.0% decrease to $30.8 million. Selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses also saw a substantial rise of 49.2%. These declines in key profitability metrics, despite a revenue beat, likely contributed to a negative market sentiment over the period.

**2.   Deteriorating Profitability from Q2 2025 Continued to Impact Investor Confidence.** Although Olaplex's second-quarter 2025 earnings, reported on August 7, 2025 (just before the specified period), showed revenue exceeding expectations, the company swung to a net loss of $0.01 per share, missing consensus estimates. This mixed performance was further underscored by a significant drop in its operating margin, falling to -1.1% from 15.7% a year prior, primarily due to increased marketing and administrative overhead. This initial signal of weakening profitability likely sustained negative pressure on the stock into the subsequent months.

**3.   Persistent Long-Term Declines in Sales and Earnings Per Share Signaled Fundamental Weakness.** Several reports noted that Olaplex has experienced a consistent struggle with declining sales, with an annual rate of 16.4-17.3% over the past three years. Concurrently, earnings per share (EPS) declined by 49.6-50.8% annually over the same period, indicating that the company faced difficulties in translating sales into profit due to its fixed cost base and shrinking demand. These long-term trends likely reinforced a bearish outlook among investors.

**4.   Analyst Downgrades and Reduced Price Targets Reflected Growing Caution.** Throughout the period, various analyst firms expressed increasing caution regarding Olaplex's stock. Weiss Ratings reiterated a "sell (d)" rating on October 8, 2025. Furthermore, Barclays cut its price target from $1.50 to $1.25 and issued an "equal weight" rating on November 10, 2025. Wall Street Zen also downgraded Olaplex from a "hold" to a "sell" rating on November 29, 2025. This series of cautious and negative revisions from analysts likely contributed to the stock's downward trajectory.

**5.   The Stock Reached a New 52-Week Low, Indicating Significant Investor Pessimism.** Olaplex's stock hit a new 52-week low of $0.9923 on November 19, 2025. Reaching such a low point typically reflects a broad lack of investor confidence and strong downward momentum in the stock's price, signaling deep-seated concerns about the company's performance and future prospects.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
OLPX Return---82%-51%-32%-36%-96%
Peers Return76%51%-14%11%9%-3%168%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
OLPX Win Rate-67%25%33%50%40% 
Peers Win Rate62%68%43%57%48%42% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
OLPX Max Drawdown---86%-74%-50%-42% 
Peers Max Drawdown-38%-11%-38%-25%-26%-25% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TSCO, ULTA, CHWY, BBWI, WINA.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventOLPXS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-95.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven2062.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days

Compare to TSCO, ULTA, CHWY, BBWI, WINA


In The Past

Olaplex's stock fell -95.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/3/2022. A -95.4% loss requires a 2062.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Olaplex (OLPX)

Better Bets than Olaplex (OLPX)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to OLPX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%
OLPX_9302023_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE09302023OLPXOlaplexDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-1.5%20.0%-35.4%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%
OLPX_9302023_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE09302023OLPXOlaplexDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-1.5%20.0%-35.4%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Olaplex

Peers to compare with:

Financials

OLPXTSCOULTACHWYBBWIWINAMedian
NameOlaplex Tractor .Ulta Bea.Chewy Bath & B.Winmark  
Mkt Price1.1954.07544.5233.9519.01430.1644.01
Mkt Cap0.828.624.514.14.01.59.0
Rev LTM41915,39911,65512,3457,370859,512
Op Inc LTM201,4881,5951631,26254712
FCF LTM7295295246378345623
FCF 3Y Avg13676997235475544554
CFO LTM761,8281,2966111,00145806
CFO 3Y Avg1401,5991,3585071,01644762

Growth & Margins

OLPXTSCOULTACHWYBBWIWINAMedian
NameOlaplex Tractor .Ulta Bea.Chewy Bath & B.Winmark  
Rev Chg LTM-3.5%4.3%2.9%9.2%-0.2%3.3%3.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-16.0%4.5%7.7%9.1%-1.8%1.6%3.1%
Rev Chg Q-3.8%7.2%9.3%8.6%1.5%5.2%6.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-1.1%1.7%2.1%2.0%0.3%1.3%1.5%
Op Mgn LTM4.8%9.7%13.7%1.3%17.1%64.3%11.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg18.3%9.9%14.4%0.7%17.0%64.3%15.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-3.3%-0.0%-0.1%0.3%-0.4%-0.9%-0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM18.1%11.9%11.1%5.0%13.6%53.0%12.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg31.1%10.6%12.1%4.4%13.7%52.7%12.9%
FCF/Rev LTM17.3%6.2%8.2%3.8%10.6%52.8%9.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg30.2%5.1%8.7%3.1%10.2%52.4%9.4%

Valuation

OLPXTSCOULTACHWYBBWIWINAMedian
NameOlaplex Tractor .Ulta Bea.Chewy Bath & B.Winmark  
Mkt Cap0.828.624.514.14.01.59.0
P/S2.12.01.81.40.920.91.9
P/EBIT22.820.213.295.94.932.021.5
P/E-176.527.317.5116.88.642.822.4
P/CFO11.616.516.228.96.339.516.4
Total Yield-0.6%3.7%5.7%0.9%14.3%4.6%4.1%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%2.7%2.2%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg10.9%2.9%4.7%2.3%9.9%3.0%3.9%
D/E0.40.20.10.00.80.00.1
Net D/E0.10.20.1-0.00.70.00.1

Returns

OLPXTSCOULTACHWYBBWIWINAMedian
NameOlaplex Tractor .Ulta Bea.Chewy Bath & B.Winmark  
1M Rtn12.3%3.5%5.2%3.1%-20.5%6.6%4.3%
3M Rtn-16.8%-9.7%2.5%-16.7%-37.0%-4.9%-13.2%
6M Rtn-13.1%10.5%16.9%-28.2%-27.8%5.1%-4.0%
12M Rtn-42.5%-3.5%37.7%1.0%-46.8%8.6%-1.3%
3Y Rtn-80.5%26.7%15.5%-24.4%-53.3%95.7%-4.4%
1M Excs Rtn12.3%3.5%5.3%3.2%-20.5%6.7%4.4%
3M Excs Rtn-23.8%-15.8%-2.5%-22.9%-44.9%-13.4%-19.3%
6M Excs Rtn-27.9%-4.2%2.2%-42.9%-42.5%-9.7%-18.8%
12M Excs Rtn-51.9%-16.6%27.3%-11.9%-59.4%-5.7%-14.3%
3Y Excs Rtn-150.8%-44.4%-53.7%-89.9%-121.7%22.6%-71.8%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity8,761,349
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-5.1%
Average Daily Volume1,303,935
Days-to-Cover Short Interest6.72
Basic Shares Quantity667,066,071
Short % of Basic Shares1.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024304202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024806202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023229202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231107202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022228202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022511202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021308202210-K 12/31/2021