Tearsheet

Olaplex (OLPX)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $1.335 | Market Cap: $890.5 Mil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Other Specialty Retail

Olaplex (OLPX)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $1.335
Market Cap: $890.5 Mil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Other Specialty Retail

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -89%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -144%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.5%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -16%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.8%
1 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 8.3%
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.7%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Luxury Consumer Goods, and Direct-to-Consumer Brands.
  Key risks
OLPX key risks include [1] brand-damaging lawsuits alleging its products cause hair loss and contain banned chemicals, Show more.
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%
1 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 8.3%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Luxury Consumer Goods, and Direct-to-Consumer Brands.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -89%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -144%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.5%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -16%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.8%
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.7%
6 Key risks
OLPX key risks include [1] brand-damaging lawsuits alleging its products cause hair loss and contain banned chemicals, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

OLPX Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback



1. Olaplex reported a 3.8% year-over-year decrease in net sales for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025, reaching $114.6 million. While this figure surpassed analyst estimates, the decline in top-line revenue contributed to negative sentiment.

2. The company experienced significant declines in key sales channels and regions during Q3 2025, with Specialty Retail sales decreasing by 13.5% and net sales in the United States falling by 14.6%. This indicated weakness in core markets and distribution points.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
OLPX Return-82%-51%-32%-17%
Peers Return-2%39%-15%3%-21%11%5%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
OLPX Win Rate67%25%33%50%50% 
Peers Win Rate48%65%47%50%45%43% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
OLPX Max Drawdown-86%-74%-50%-42% 
Peers Max Drawdown-48%-7%-34%-26%-33%-31% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: EL, PG, COTY, ULTA, SBH.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventOLPXS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-95.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven2062.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days

Compare to TSCO, ULTA, CHWY, BBWI, WINA


In The Past

Olaplex's stock fell -95.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/3/2022. A -95.4% loss requires a 2062.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Olaplex (OLPX)

Better Bets than Olaplex (OLPX)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to OLPX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
12.8%12.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.4%5.4%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.5%15.5%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.3%15.3%-1.6%
OLPX_9302023_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE09302023OLPXOlaplexDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-1.5%20.0%-35.4%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
12.8%12.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.4%5.4%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.5%15.5%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.3%15.3%-1.6%
OLPX_9302023_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE09302023OLPXOlaplexDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-1.5%20.0%-35.4%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Olaplex

Peers to compare with:

Financials

OLPXELPGCOTYULTASBHMedian
NameOlaplex Estee La.Procter .Coty Ulta Bea.Sally Be. 
Mkt Price1.33105.30147.813.26585.9815.0760.19
Mkt Cap0.938.0346.22.824.51.613.7
Rev LTM41914,32684,9335,79911,9823,7018,890
Op Inc LTM201,14120,5094761,586328809
FCF LTM7267014,9432991,042173484
FCF 3Y Avg13618415,127324961159254
CFO LTM761,27218,9234901,359275881
CFO 3Y Avg1401,78818,6165451,349257947

Growth & Margins

OLPXELPGCOTYULTASBHMedian
NameOlaplex Estee La.Procter .Coty Ulta Bea.Sally Be. 
Rev Chg LTM-3.5%-8.2%1.2%-5.7%5.5%-0.4%-1.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-16.0%-6.8%1.8%3.1%7.3%-1.0%0.4%
Rev Chg Q-3.8%-11.9%3.0%-5.6%12.9%1.3%-1.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-1.1%-3.1%0.8%-1.6%2.8%0.3%-0.4%
Op Mgn LTM4.8%8.0%24.1%8.2%13.2%8.9%8.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg18.3%9.7%23.6%9.4%14.0%8.5%11.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-3.3%-1.1%-0.1%-0.8%-0.4%-0.1%-0.6%
CFO/Rev LTM18.1%8.9%22.3%8.5%11.3%7.4%10.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg31.1%11.6%22.2%9.2%11.8%6.9%11.7%
FCF/Rev LTM17.3%4.7%17.6%5.2%8.7%4.7%6.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg30.2%1.4%18.0%5.5%8.4%4.3%7.0%

Valuation

OLPXELPGCOTYULTASBHMedian
NameOlaplex Estee La.Procter .Coty Ulta Bea.Sally Be. 
Mkt Cap0.938.0346.22.824.51.613.7
P/S2.12.24.20.62.00.42.1
P/EBIT22.8-46.516.4-23.2---3.4
P/E-176.5-28.121.5-9.220.68.2-0.5
P/CFO11.625.019.07.218.05.814.8
Total Yield-0.6%-3.6%4.7%-10.9%4.9%12.2%2.0%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg10.9%1.0%4.1%5.3%--4.7%
D/E0.40.30.11.2--0.4
Net D/E0.10.20.11.1--0.1

Returns

OLPXELPGCOTYULTASBHMedian
NameOlaplex Estee La.Procter .Coty Ulta Bea.Sally Be. 
1M Rtn30.4%22.8%1.4%-2.7%15.0%5.9%10.4%
3M Rtn-7.6%19.9%-7.2%-24.5%10.8%-1.5%-4.3%
6M Rtn-7.6%42.0%-5.2%-31.9%23.8%77.3%9.3%
12M Rtn-33.8%37.1%-10.9%-55.5%38.3%22.6%5.8%
3Y Rtn-75.8%-53.8%6.0%-58.9%29.9%17.3%-23.9%
1M Excs Rtn29.7%22.0%0.6%-3.4%14.3%5.2%9.7%
3M Excs Rtn-11.5%18.8%-6.7%-25.0%8.2%-4.5%-5.6%
6M Excs Rtn-20.0%29.6%-17.5%-44.3%11.4%64.9%-3.1%
12M Excs Rtn-47.7%22.8%-22.4%-67.6%27.1%9.8%-6.3%
3Y Excs Rtn-144.1%-122.9%-63.9%-127.3%-44.3%-37.6%-93.4%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil2024202320222021
Single Segment458704598282
Total458704598282


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity9,057,973
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520253.4%
Average Daily Volume999,495
Days-to-Cover Short Interest9.06
Basic Shares Quantity667,066,071
Short % of Basic Shares1.4%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/6/20251.9%8.5%15.1%
8/7/20251.4%3.5%5.7%
3/4/202521.7%14.5%-6.5%
11/7/2024-9.5%-2.2%19.6%
8/6/202418.6%-8.1%23.8%
4/4/2024-6.8%-15.3%-8.5%
11/7/202325.4%25.4%85.5%
8/8/2023-9.5%-26.3%-28.6%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive556
# Negative998
Median Positive18.6%8.5%17.3%
Median Negative-9.1%-8.1%-17.2%
Max Positive25.4%25.4%85.5%
Max Negative-56.7%-56.1%-42.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024304202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024806202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023229202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231107202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022228202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022511202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021308202210-K 12/31/2021