Olaplex (OLPX)
Market Price (5/4/2026): $2.035 | Market Cap: $1.4 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Other Specialty Retail
Olaplex (OLPX)
Market Price (5/4/2026): $2.035Market Cap: $1.4 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Other Specialty Retail
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Luxury Consumer Goods, and Direct-to-Consumer Brands. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.5% Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -123% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 39x Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -14% Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 54% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.6% Key risksOLPX key risks include [1] brand-damaging lawsuits alleging its products cause hair loss and contain banned chemicals, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Luxury Consumer Goods, and Direct-to-Consumer Brands. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.5% |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -123% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 39x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -14% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 54% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.6% |
| Key risksOLPX key risks include [1] brand-damaging lawsuits alleging its products cause hair loss and contain banned chemicals, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Olaplex (OLPX) stock has gained about 30% since 1/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Acquisition by Henkel provided a significant premium to shareholders.
On March 26, 2026, Olaplex announced a definitive agreement to be acquired by Germany-based global conglomerate Henkel for $1.4 billion, or $2.06 per share in cash. This acquisition price represented a premium of approximately 55% over Olaplex's closing stock price on March 25, 2026, and about 45% over the 30-day volume-weighted average price.
2. Stronger-than-anticipated Q4 2025 financial results indicated stabilization.
Olaplex reported its fourth-quarter and fiscal year 2025 financial results on March 5, 2026, surpassing revenue expectations. The company achieved net sales of $105.1 million in Q4 2025, a 4.3% increase year-over-year, exceeding analysts' consensus estimate of $104.21 million. This performance, which included an EPS of $0.01 in line with estimates, marked a stabilization in financial performance following previous declines.
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1. Acquisition by Henkel provided a significant premium to shareholders.
On March 26, 2026, Olaplex announced a definitive agreement to be acquired by Germany-based global conglomerate Henkel for $1.4 billion, or $2.06 per share in cash. This acquisition price represented a premium of approximately 55% over Olaplex's closing stock price on March 25, 2026, and about 45% over the 30-day volume-weighted average price.
2. Stronger-than-anticipated Q4 2025 financial results indicated stabilization.
Olaplex reported its fourth-quarter and fiscal year 2025 financial results on March 5, 2026, surpassing revenue expectations. The company achieved net sales of $105.1 million in Q4 2025, a 4.3% increase year-over-year, exceeding analysts' consensus estimate of $104.21 million. This performance, which included an EPS of $0.01 in line with estimates, marked a stabilization in financial performance following previous declines.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 28.5% change in OLPX stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/3/2026 was primarily driven by a 27.3% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1.58 | 2.03 | 28.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 419 | 423 | 1.0% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.5 | 3.2 | 27.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 667 | 668 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 28.5% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| OLPX | 28.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.6% | -11.0% |
| Sector (XLY) | -1.9% | -0.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 95.2% change in OLPX stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/3/2026 was primarily driven by a 95.9% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1.04 | 2.03 | 95.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 423 | 423 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.6 | 3.2 | 95.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 666 | 668 | -0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 95.2% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| OLPX | 95.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.5% | 1.3% |
| Sector (XLY) | -0.7% | 11.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 55.0% change in OLPX stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/3/2026 was primarily driven by a 56.0% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1.31 | 2.03 | 55.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 423 | 423 | 0.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.1 | 3.2 | 56.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 663 | 668 | -0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 55.0% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| OLPX | 55.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 30.4% | 13.3% |
| Sector (XLY) | 21.2% | 22.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -45.1% change in OLPX stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/3/2026 was primarily driven by a -39.9% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 3.70 | 2.03 | -45.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 704 | 423 | -39.9% |
| P/S Multiple | 3.4 | 3.2 | -6.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 649 | 668 | -2.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -45.1% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| OLPX | -45.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 78.7% | 24.9% |
| Sector (XLY) | 64.4% | 29.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| OLPX Return | 19% | -82% | -51% | -32% | -23% | 51% | -92% |
| Peers Return | 39% | -15% | 3% | -21% | 10% | -11% | -6% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 5% | 92% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| OLPX Win Rate | 50% | 25% | 33% | 50% | 50% | 75% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 47% | 50% | 45% | 43% | 65% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| OLPX Max Drawdown | -7% | -86% | -74% | -50% | -42% | -10% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -7% | -34% | -26% | -33% | -32% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: EL, PG, COTY, ULTA, SBH.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/1/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | OLPX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.5% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 70 days | 79 days |
In The Past
Olaplex's stock fell -25.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 34.3% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | OLPX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.5% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 70 days | 79 days |
In The Past
Olaplex's stock fell -25.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 34.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Olaplex (OLPX)
Olaplex Holdings, Inc. manufactures and sells hair care products. The company offers hair care shampoos and conditioners for use in treatment, maintenance, and protection of hair. It provides hair care products to professional hair salons, retailers, and everyday consumers. The company was founded in 2014 and is based in Santa Barbara, California.
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Here are a few analogies for Olaplex:
- Estée Lauder for premium hair care.
- The La Mer of hair treatments.
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- Hair Care Shampoos: Products designed to cleanse hair, formulated for its treatment, maintenance, and protection.
- Hair Care Conditioners: Products designed to moisturize and detangle hair, formulated for its treatment, maintenance, and protection.
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Olaplex (OLPX) primarily sells its hair care products to other companies, specifically professional hair salons and major retailers, which then distribute to everyday consumers. This indicates that its major customers are businesses rather than individuals directly.
Its major customer companies and categories include:
- Ulta Beauty, Inc. (symbol: ULTA)
- Sephora (a division of LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton, symbol: LVMUY)
- Amazon.com, Inc. (symbol: AMZN)
- Professional Hair Salons: Olaplex supplies products to a vast network of professional hair salons, which represents a significant business-to-business customer segment for the company. While individual salons are independent businesses, Olaplex's professional channel is a core part of its distribution strategy.
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Amanda Baldwin, Chief Executive OfficerAmanda Baldwin was appointed Chief Executive Officer of Olaplex in December 2023. Prior to joining Olaplex, she served as Chief Executive Officer of Supergoop LLC, a leading SPF skincare brand, since July 2016. Before Supergoop!, Ms. Baldwin was a Senior Vice President at L Catterton, a global consumer-focused investment fund, where she worked with management teams across the portfolio, particularly in the beauty sector. She also led the omnichannel marketing strategy for Dior Beauty at Louis Vuitton Moet Hennessy (LVMH) and held several positions at Clinique, a part of The Estée Lauder Companies.
Catherine Dunleavy, Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer
Catherine Dunleavy joined Olaplex as Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer, effective August 13, 2024. Previously, she served as President and, prior to that, as Chief Financial Officer at the travel lifestyle brand Away. Ms. Dunleavy spent three years at Nike, with her most recent role as Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Global Operations, Technology and Vice President, Strategic Investments. Before Nike, she spent 16 years at Comcast and NBCUniversal, holding various roles including Chief Financial Officer of the Cable Entertainment Group and Executive Vice President, Content Distribution. She began her career at General Electric. Ms. Dunleavy also serves on the board of TEGNA (NYSE: TGNA).
John Duffy, General Counsel
John Duffy has served as General Counsel for Olaplex since April 2022. Before joining Olaplex, Mr. Duffy was a senior corporate attorney at Tiffany & Co., where he provided legal counsel on corporate, transactional, governance, and other matters, eventually serving as Vice President - Associate General Counsel, Corporate & Real Estate. He joined Tiffany & Co. in 2014. Prior to that, he was an attorney at the law firm of Cravath, Swaine & Moore LLP from 2009 to 2014, specializing in corporate, transactional, and securities law.
Trisha Fox, Chief People Officer
Trisha Fox joined Olaplex as Chief People Officer in May 2023. Prior to Olaplex, Ms. Fox was the Chief Human Resources Officer for Whole Earth Brands, where she provided strategic and operational human resources leadership following the company's IPO. Before her time at Whole Earth Brands, she served as Chief Human Resources Officer for Viad Corp., leading a global human resources function with a focus on organizational design, capability building, leadership development, and HR operations.
Katie Gohman, Chief Marketing Officer
Katie Gohman was appointed Chief Marketing Officer of Olaplex, with an effective start date of July 15, 2024. She joined Olaplex from Marc Jacobs, where she served as Chief Marketing Officer, overseeing the strategic and creative vision for the brand. Her previous experience includes roles as Senior Vice President of Global Marketing and Operations at Ralph Lauren and Vice President of Global Marketing at Coach. Ms. Gohman began her career at L'Oréal, where she held senior marketing positions for various brands, including Lancôme, Clarisonic, and Kiehl's.
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The key risks to Olaplex Holdings, Inc. (OLPX) are:
- Litigation and Brand Reputation Damage: Olaplex faces significant legal challenges, including ongoing class-action lawsuits alleging that its products cause hair damage and other adverse effects. These lawsuits and related negative publicity have led to a decline in consumer trust and damaged the brand's reputation, directly impacting sales and stock value.
- Intense Competition and Shifting Consumer Preferences: The hair care market, particularly the bond-building segment pioneered by Olaplex, is highly competitive. The company faces rivalry from major consumer packaged goods (CPG) companies such as L'Oréal and Unilever, as well as innovative competitors like K18, which offers alternative hair repair technologies. Additionally, macroeconomic pressures are influencing consumer spending, leading some to "trade down" from premium products, further intensifying the competitive landscape.
- Declining Sales, Profitability Pressure, and Execution Risks of Transformation Strategy: Olaplex has experienced significant net sales declines and shrinking operating margins in recent periods. While the company is implementing a transformation strategy to address these challenges, there are inherent execution risks associated with rolling out new products, managing promotional activities, and navigating a volatile global consumer environment, which could continue to impact revenue trajectory and profitability.
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Olaplex Holdings, Inc. (OLPX) operates within several significant addressable markets for its hair care products.
The global retail haircare products market was estimated at $93 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 6% from 2024 to 2029. Within this broader market, Olaplex primarily operates in the prestige haircare category, which is forecast to grow globally at an approximate 7% CAGR from 2024 to 2029.
For professional hair care products, the global market was valued at $24.5 billion in 2026 and is expected to reach $38.3 billion by 2036, with a CAGR of 4.6%. Another source estimated the global professional hair care market at approximately $38.28 billion in 2025.
In the United States, prestige haircare sales reached $4.9 billion in 2025, an 8% increase over 2024. Consumers are also estimated to spend over $200 billion globally on salon haircare services annually, which drives the market for professional haircare products.
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Olaplex Holdings, Inc. (OLPX) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through a multi-faceted strategy focusing on product innovation, market expansion, and enhanced brand engagement.
Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth:
- New Product Development and Innovation: Olaplex is committed to expanding its product pipeline beyond its core bond-building technology and launching new categories to address a wider array of hair concerns. Recent examples include the introduction of No. 3PLUS Complete Repair Treatment in February 2026 and the No. 0.5 Scalp Longevity Treatment in April 2025. Additionally, the acquisition of Purvala Bioscience in August 2025 signals a strategic move toward science-driven innovation, potentially leading to new product categories within and beyond haircare.
- International Market Expansion: The company is actively pursuing continued international expansion, particularly targeting emerging markets. This strategy aims to broaden Olaplex's global reach, strengthen its presence in existing international markets, and access untapped customer bases.
- Strategic Channel Growth, particularly in Professional and Direct-to-Consumer (DTC): Olaplex is focused on energizing its hero products and accelerating its go-to-market model globally. The professional channel has demonstrated growth, with a deliberate shift of international volume towards professional partners identified as a primary growth engine. The direct-to-consumer channel, specifically olaplex.com, is also experiencing positive momentum due to increased marketing investments.
- Enhanced Marketing and Brand Revitalization Efforts: Olaplex has made significant marketing investments and underwent a brand relaunch in early 2025. This includes a refreshed visual identity and new campaigns, such as "Designed to Defy," aimed at increasing brand awareness, improving consumer sentiment, and ultimately stimulating purchase intent.
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Share Repurchases
- Olaplex Holdings, Inc. has reported $0.00 in share buybacks over the last few years.
Share Issuance
- Olaplex Holdings, Inc. completed its Initial Public Offering (IPO) on October 4, 2021, raising approximately $1.5 billion.
- As of February 26, 2025, the company had 664,619,629 shares of common stock outstanding.
Outbound Investments
- In August 2025, Olaplex acquired the biotech company Purvala Bioscience for an undisclosed sum, marking the company's first acquisition in its history.
- This acquisition was intended to expand Olaplex's scientific and intellectual property portfolio beyond its core bond-building technology.
Capital Expenditures
- Olaplex's capital expenditures were approximately $3.22 million over the trailing twelve months as of March 1, 2026.
- Capital expenditures are typically limited and are dependent on strategic initiatives, including investments in infrastructure and customer base expansion.
- Projected capital expenditures are $2 million for 2025, $2 million for 2026, and $2 million for 2027.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Olaplex Stock Shares Rally 51% In A Day, Now Is Not The Time To Buy The Stock | 03/27/2026 | |
| Olaplex (OLPX) +19%: Aggressive Buying Ahead of Q4 Earnings Release | 03/05/2026 | |
| Olaplex Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| Would You Still Hold Olaplex Stock If It Fell 30%? | 10/17/2025 | |
| Olaplex (OLPX) Net Income Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Olaplex (OLPX) Debt Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Olaplex (OLPX) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Olaplex (OLPX) EBITDA Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Olaplex (OLPX) Operating Income Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Olaplex (OLPX) Tax Expense Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Olaplex Stock To $1? | 03/27/2026 | |
| OLPX Stock Up 21% after 6-Day Win Streak | 06/25/2025 |
Trade Ideas
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04302026 | FUN | Six Flags Entertainment | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04242026 | MGM | MGM Resorts International | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -1.5% | -1.5% | -1.5% |
| 04242026 | WEN | Wendy's | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -2.5% | -2.5% | -5.3% |
| 04102026 | WHR | Whirlpool | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -0.8% | -0.8% | -4.8% |
| 04022026 | SKY | Champion Homes | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | -1.2% |
| 09302023 | OLPX | Olaplex | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -1.5% | 20.0% | -35.4% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 46.66 |
| Mkt Cap | 12.9 |
| Rev LTM | 9,100 |
| Op Inc LTM | 955 |
| FCF LTM | 729 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 353 |
| CFO LTM | 1,044 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,005 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 0.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.1% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -2.6% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -3.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 9.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 11.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 12.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 12.9 |
| P/S | 1.9 |
| P/Op Inc | 16.1 |
| P/EBIT | 15.5 |
| P/E | 1.8 |
| P/CFO | 15.8 |
| Total Yield | 2.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.1% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -12.8% |
| 6M Rtn | -3.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 35.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | -20.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -8.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -17.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -8.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 4.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -101.9% |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $2.03 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 1.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 09/30/2021 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -0.5% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $1.74 | $1.45 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 16.9% | 40.1% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 122.5% | 83.7% |
| Downside Capture | -0.20 | 0.45 |
| Upside Capture | 77.48 | 107.31 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -10.9% | 13.5% |
OLPX Betas & Captures as of 4/30/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.07 | -1.39 | -0.90 | 0.09 | 0.89 | 1.27 |
| Up Beta | 0.16 | 0.33 | 0.06 | 0.22 | 1.49 | 1.47 |
| Down Beta | -0.34 | -8.03 | -5.62 | -1.43 | -0.00 | 0.88 |
| Up Capture | -3% | 53% | 75% | 175% | 122% | 129% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 6 | 17 | 29 | 62 | 115 | 337 |
| Down Capture | 0% | -106% | -54% | -6% | 94% | 110% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 6 | 16 | 22 | 46 | 108 | 362 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with OLPX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OLPX | 62.4% | 83.4% | 0.91 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 21.3% | 18.8% | 0.90 | 21.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 30.6% | 12.5% | 1.88 | 13.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 39.5% | 27.2% | 1.20 | -16.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 51.5% | 17.9% | 2.20 | -7.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.1% | 13.5% | 0.67 | 20.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -17.1% | 42.2% | -0.33 | 8.2% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with OLPX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OLPX | -38.7% | 78.2% | -0.32 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 6.7% | 23.8% | 0.24 | 38.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 35.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.5% | 17.9% | 0.94 | -1.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 14.3% | 19.1% | 0.61 | 0.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.5% | 18.8% | 0.09 | 36.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.7% | 56.2% | 0.35 | 18.4% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with OLPX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OLPX | -21.7% | 78.2% | -0.32 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.7% | 22.0% | 0.53 | 38.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 35.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.6% | 15.9% | 0.71 | -1.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.7% | 17.7% | 0.46 | 0.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 36.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.7% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 18.4% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 3/5/2026 | -17.7% | -26.4% | 14.0% |
| 11/6/2025 | 1.9% | 8.5% | 15.1% |
| 8/7/2025 | 1.4% | 3.5% | 5.7% |
| 3/4/2025 | 21.7% | 14.5% | -6.5% |
| 11/7/2024 | -9.5% | -2.2% | 19.6% |
| 8/6/2024 | 18.6% | -8.1% | 23.8% |
| 4/4/2024 | -6.8% | -15.3% | -8.5% |
| 11/7/2023 | 25.4% | 25.4% | 85.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 5 | 5 | 7 |
| # Negative | 10 | 10 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 18.6% | 8.5% | 15.1% |
| Median Negative | -9.3% | -11.7% | -17.2% |
| Max Positive | 25.4% | 25.4% | 85.5% |
| Max Negative | -56.7% | -56.1% | -42.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 03/05/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/04/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/29/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/28/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/11/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Net Sales | 414.00 Mil | 424.50 Mil | 435.00 Mil | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 420.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Gross Profit Margin | 71.0% | 71.5% | 72.0% | 0.7% | 0.5% | Raised | Guidance: 71.0% for 2025 |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Margin | 21.0% | 21.5% | 22.0% | 2.4% | 0.5% | Raised | Guidance: 21.0% for 2025 |
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/6/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Revenue | 410.00 Mil | 420.50 Mil | 431.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 420.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Adjusted Gross Profit Margin | 70.5% | 71.0% | 71.5% | 0 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 71.0% for 2025 |
| 2025 Adjusted EBITDA Margin | 20.0% | 21.0% | 22.0% | 0 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 21.0% for 2025 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Duffy, John C | General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 4152026 | 2.02 | 11,471 | 23,171 | 1,962,196 | Form |
| 2 | Baldwin, Amanda | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 3162026 | 1.17 | 451,837 | 528,649 | 10,681,533 | Form |
| 3 | Fox, Trisha L | Chief People Officer | Direct | Sell | 3162026 | 1.26 | 25,421 | 32,030 | 1,361,257 | Form |
| 4 | Duffy, John C | General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 3162026 | 1.26 | 34,962 | 44,052 | 1,238,397 | Form |
| 5 | Dunleavy, Catherine | COO and CFO | Direct | Sell | 3162026 | 1.26 | 93,809 | 118,199 | 3,813,875 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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