Avista (AVA)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $39.34 | Market Cap: $3.2 BilSector: Utilities | Industry: Multi-Utilities
Avista (AVA)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $39.34Market Cap: $3.2 BilSector: UtilitiesIndustry: Multi-Utilities
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, Dividend Yield is 5.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.1% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -22%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -61% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 102% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25% | Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.2% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 19% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, Renewable Energy Transition, and Electrification of Everything. Themes include Grid Automation, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, Dividend Yield is 5.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.1% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 19% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, Renewable Energy Transition, and Electrification of Everything. Themes include Grid Automation, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -22%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -61% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 102% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.2% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
AVA Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for why Avista (AVA) stock moved by 8.9% for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Strong Q3 2025 Earnings Beat: Avista reported diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.36 for the third quarter of 2025 on November 5, 2025, significantly surpassing analysts' consensus estimates which ranged from $0.27 to $0.29. This positive earnings surprise likely bolstered investor confidence.
2. Benefits from Regulatory Rate Cases and Disciplined Cost Management: The better-than-expected third-quarter financial results were primarily driven by the benefits of general rate cases, customer load growth, and disciplined cost management. These factors highlighted strong operational execution within the company's core utility segment.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AVA Return | -13% | 10% | 9% | -15% | 8% | 13% | 8% |
| Peers Return | 1% | 13% | 3% | -11% | 15% | 15% | 39% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AVA Win Rate | 50% | 42% | 67% | 42% | 50% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 48% | 57% | 60% | 55% | 55% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AVA Max Drawdown | -31% | -7% | -11% | -27% | -10% | -4% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -28% | -9% | -14% | -24% | -10% | -10% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: D, XEL, ED, NEE, SRE. See AVA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AVA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -30.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -37.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 59.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -23.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 367 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -50.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 101.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 848 days | 1480 days |
Compare to D, XEL, ED, NEE, SRE
In The Past
Avista's stock fell -30.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/24/2023. A -30.5% loss requires a 43.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to AVA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | PEG | Public Service Enterprise | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.7% |
| 09262025 | PCG | PG&E | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.5% | 2.5% | 0.0% |
| 09052025 | AES | AES | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.3% | 9.3% | -3.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | PEG | Public Service Enterprise | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.7% |
| 09262025 | PCG | PG&E | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.5% | 2.5% | 0.0% |
| 09052025 | AES | AES | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.3% | 9.3% | -3.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Avista
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 81.67 |
| Mkt Cap | 48.8 |
| Rev LTM | 14,728 |
| Op Inc LTM | 3,052 |
| FCF LTM | -2,608 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -1,804 |
| CFO LTM | 4,620 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 4,460 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 20.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 19.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 31.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 31.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -18.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -12.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 48.8 |
| P/S | 3.4 |
| P/EBIT | 13.7 |
| P/E | 23.4 |
| P/CFO | 10.9 |
| Total Yield | 7.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -4.6% |
| D/E | 0.7 |
| Net D/E | 0.7 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 9.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 12.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 9.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 12.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 3.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -2.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -7.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -59.2% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2262025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2212024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11012023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2222023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11012022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2232022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Kinney Scott J | Vice President | 6122025 | Sell | 37.82 | 1,024 | 38,728 | 435,497 | Form |
| 1 | Cox Bryan Alden | Senior Vice President | 3132025 | Sell | 39.11 | 3,322 | 129,915 | 344,615 | Form |
| 2 | Cox Bryan Alden | Senior Vice President | 3102025 | Sell | 39.89 | 1,605 | 64,019 | 483,991 | Form |
| 3 | Kinney Scott J | Vice President | 3062025 | Sell | 38.72 | 1,632 | 63,191 | 511,298 | Form |
| 4 | Manuel Wayne O | Vice President | 3042025 | Sell | 40.00 | 2,480 | 99,190 | 467,914 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |