Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -39%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -1.6%, Dist 3Y High is -1.6%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -233 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -871%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 1137%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15%
Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 376%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 203%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more.
  Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -710%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -741%
3   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -21%
4   Key risks
NUVB key risks include [1] high cash burn and financial dependence on revenue from its single product, Show more.
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -39%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 1137%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more.
3 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -1.6%, Dist 3Y High is -1.6%
4 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15%
5 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -233 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -871%
6 Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 376%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 203%
7 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -710%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -741%
8 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -21%
9 Key risks
NUVB key risks include [1] high cash burn and financial dependence on revenue from its single product, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

NUVB Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining Nuvation Bio (NUVB) stock movement during the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025: 1. Better-than-Expected Commercial Launch and Revenue for IBTROZI

Nuvation Bio transitioned to a commercial-stage company with the launch of IBTROZI (taletrectinib) for advanced ROS1-positive non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) following its U.S. FDA approval in June 2025. The company reported net product revenue from U.S. sales of IBTROZI of approximately $7.7 million for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025, significantly surpassing analyst estimates. This strong initial commercial performance and exceeding revenue forecasts contributed to investor confidence.

2. Japanese Regulatory Approval for IBTROZI

In September 2025, Nuvation Bio's partner, Nippon Kayaku, received approval from Japan's Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare for IBTROZI for the treatment of patients with advanced ROS1-positive NSCLC. This marked the third major regulatory approval for IBTROZI, expanding its market potential beyond the U.S. and China and indicating a broader global reach for the company's lead asset.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
NUVB Return-27%-77%-21%76%226%
Peers Return15%11%17%9%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
NUVB Win Rate50%42%25%50%50%58% 
Peers Win Rate53%48%43%57%60% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
NUVB Max Drawdown-34%-80%-50%-3%-38% 
Peers Max Drawdown-32%-28%-14%-20% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NUVL, AGIO, BMY, PFE, GILD.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventNUVBS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-93.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1412.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-13.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven16.1%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven29 days148 days

Compare to VRTX, ACSB, AIXC, ALPS, APRI


In The Past

Nuvation Bio's stock fell -93.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/19/2021. A -93.4% loss requires a 1412.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Nuvation Bio (NUVB)

Better Bets than Nuvation Bio (NUVB)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to NUVB. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.3%16.3%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.1%-7.1%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.6%3.6%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
1.6%1.6%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.3%16.3%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.1%-7.1%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.6%3.6%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
1.6%1.6%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Nuvation Bio

Peers to compare with:

Financials

NUVBNUVLAGIOBMYPFEGILDMedian
NameNuvation.Nuvalent Agios Ph.Bristol-.Pfizer Gilead S. 
Mkt Price8.52101.2525.4553.5525.04121.3639.50
Mkt Cap2.97.31.5109.0142.4150.958.2
Rev LTM2704548,03462,78629,08614,565
Op Inc LTM-233-398-47611,42015,41711,1515,459
FCF LTM-198-264-42415,30210,3769,1624,482
FCF 3Y Avg-122-168-35413,5988,9278,8154,347
CFO LTM-190-264-41016,62113,0779,6674,739
CFO 3Y Avg-119-168-34314,84612,1279,3644,622

Growth & Margins

NUVBNUVLAGIOBMYPFEGILDMedian
NameNuvation.Nuvalent Agios Ph.Bristol-.Pfizer Gilead S. 
Rev Chg LTM1,137.2%-36.3%1.3%3.9%2.8%3.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg--71.7%1.0%-13.2%2.3%1.7%
Rev Chg Q1,704.7%-43.7%2.8%-5.9%3.0%3.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM86.3%-9.6%0.7%-1.6%0.8%0.8%
Op Mgn LTM-871.0%--1,061.8%23.8%24.6%38.3%23.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg---1,299.8%19.0%19.4%39.2%19.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM693.9%-67.3%2.9%-1.4%0.9%2.9%
CFO/Rev LTM-710.3%--915.2%34.6%20.8%33.2%20.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg---1,040.8%31.7%18.9%33.1%25.3%
FCF/Rev LTM-741.2%--946.8%31.9%16.5%31.5%16.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg---1,077.8%29.0%13.9%31.2%21.5%

Valuation

NUVBNUVLAGIOBMYPFEGILDMedian
NameNuvation.Nuvalent Agios Ph.Bristol-.Pfizer Gilead S. 
Mkt Cap2.97.31.5109.0142.4150.958.2
P/S47.4-52.11.92.34.74.7
P/EBIT-6.0-15.7-4.99.212.212.72.1
P/E-5.8-16.4-5.815.214.717.04.5
P/CFO-6.7-23.6-5.75.511.114.3-0.1
Total Yield-17.2%-6.1%-17.2%12.0%13.5%8.8%1.3%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%5.4%6.7%2.9%1.4%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-18.4%-3.3%-17.8%13.2%5.5%8.0%1.1%
D/E0.00.00.00.60.40.20.1
Net D/E-0.4-0.2-0.40.40.30.1-0.0

Returns

NUVBNUVLAGIOBMYPFEGILDMedian
NameNuvation.Nuvalent Agios Ph.Bristol-.Pfizer Gilead S. 
1M Rtn82.4%-6.2%-43.6%14.4%-0.2%-1.6%-0.9%
3M Rtn161.3%28.8%-30.1%17.6%5.9%8.8%13.2%
6M Rtn376.0%34.1%-28.3%17.4%8.5%13.9%15.7%
12M Rtn203.2%14.9%-39.3%-2.5%1.6%34.4%8.3%
3Y Rtn381.4%242.4%-14.3%-16.8%-42.1%55.4%20.6%
1M Excs Rtn81.7%-7.0%-44.3%13.7%-0.9%-2.3%-1.6%
3M Excs Rtn167.4%23.7%-34.3%17.7%4.2%6.2%11.9%
6M Excs Rtn363.6%21.7%-40.7%5.0%-3.8%1.5%3.3%
12M Excs Rtn215.4%5.5%-45.8%-10.3%-6.1%24.7%-0.3%
3Y Excs Rtn289.6%162.9%-81.4%-90.9%-111.3%-14.8%-48.1%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil2024202320222021
Oncology development activities621672776222
Total621672776222


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity52,605,709
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-20.7%
Average Daily Volume14,488,714
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.63
Basic Shares Quantity342,393,000
Short % of Basic Shares15.4%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/3/2025-6.6%-10.3%60.7%
8/7/2025-0.4%11.1%66.0%
3/6/20256.9%16.9%-12.2%
11/6/20243.1%16.1%12.2%
8/5/2024-5.4%-15.8%-11.3%
5/14/20240.0%3.0%-9.4%
2/29/202419.3%33.2%97.3%
11/2/20235.5%-3.1%3.1%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive121010
# Negative577
Median Positive4.4%14.0%11.0%
Median Negative-3.4%-8.1%-9.4%
Max Positive19.3%33.2%97.3%
Max Negative-6.6%-15.8%-13.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251103202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024306202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241106202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024805202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024514202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023229202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022315202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022509202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021228202210-K 12/31/2021