Nuvation Bio (NUVB)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $8.53 | Market Cap: $2.9 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Nuvation Bio (NUVB)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $8.53Market Cap: $2.9 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -39% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.6%, Dist 3Y High is -1.6% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -233 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -871% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 1137% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15% | Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 376%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 203% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more. | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -710%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -741% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -21% | ||
| Key risksNUVB key risks include [1] high cash burn and financial dependence on revenue from its single product, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -39% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 1137% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.6%, Dist 3Y High is -1.6% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -233 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -871% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 376%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 203% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -710%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -741% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -21% |
| Key risksNUVB key risks include [1] high cash burn and financial dependence on revenue from its single product, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
NUVB Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining Nuvation Bio (NUVB) stock movement during the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:
1. Better-than-Expected Commercial Launch and Revenue for IBTROZI
Nuvation Bio transitioned to a commercial-stage company with the launch of IBTROZI (taletrectinib) for advanced ROS1-positive non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) following its U.S. FDA approval in June 2025. The company reported net product revenue from U.S. sales of IBTROZI of approximately $7.7 million for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025, significantly surpassing analyst estimates. This strong initial commercial performance and exceeding revenue forecasts contributed to investor confidence.
2. Japanese Regulatory Approval for IBTROZI
In September 2025, Nuvation Bio's partner, Nippon Kayaku, received approval from Japan's Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare for IBTROZI for the treatment of patients with advanced ROS1-positive NSCLC. This marked the third major regulatory approval for IBTROZI, expanding its market potential beyond the U.S. and China and indicating a broader global reach for the company's lead asset.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NUVB Return | � | -27% | -77% | -21% | 76% | 226% | � |
| Peers Return | � | � | 15% | 11% | 17% | 9% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NUVB Win Rate | 50% | 42% | 25% | 50% | 50% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | 53% | 48% | 43% | 57% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NUVB Max Drawdown | � | -34% | -80% | -50% | -3% | -38% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | -32% | -28% | -14% | -20% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NUVL, AGIO, BMY, PFE, GILD.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NUVB | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -93.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1412.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -13.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 16.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 29 days | 148 days |
Compare to VRTX, ACSB, AIXC, ALPS, APRI
In The Past
Nuvation Bio's stock fell -93.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/19/2021. A -93.4% loss requires a 1412.0% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Nuvation Bio Earnings Notes | |||
| Nuvation Bio Stock Jump Looks Great, But How Secure Is That Gain? | Return | ||
| Nuvation Bio (NUVB) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Nuvation Bio (NUVB) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Nuvation Bio (NUVB) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Nuvation Bio (NUVB) Debt Comparison | Financials | ||
| Nuvation Bio (NUVB) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| Nuvation Bio (NUVB) Tax Expense Comparison | Financials | ||
| Nuvation Bio (NUVB) EBITDA Comparison | Financials | ||
| Why Nuvation Bio Stock Moved: NUVB Stock Has Gained 474% Since 2023 Fiscal End, Primarily Due To Favorable Change In Revenues | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Nuvation Bio Stock Surged 160%, Here’s Why | November 20th, 2025 | ||
| Small Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | November 20th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to NUVB. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 16.3% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.1% | -7.1% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.6% | 3.6% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 16.3% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.1% | -7.1% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.6% | 3.6% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Nuvation Bio
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 39.50 |
| Mkt Cap | 58.2 |
| Rev LTM | 14,565 |
| Op Inc LTM | 5,459 |
| FCF LTM | 4,482 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 4,347 |
| CFO LTM | 4,739 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 4,622 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 23.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 19.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 2.9% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 20.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 25.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 16.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 58.2 |
| P/S | 4.7 |
| P/EBIT | 2.1 |
| P/E | 4.5 |
| P/CFO | -0.1 |
| Total Yield | 1.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.1% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 13.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 15.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 8.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 20.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 11.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 3.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -0.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -48.1% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/3/2025 | -6.6% | -10.3% | 60.7% |
| 8/7/2025 | -0.4% | 11.1% | 66.0% |
| 3/6/2025 | 6.9% | 16.9% | -12.2% |
| 11/6/2024 | 3.1% | 16.1% | 12.2% |
| 8/5/2024 | -5.4% | -15.8% | -11.3% |
| 5/14/2024 | 0.0% | 3.0% | -9.4% |
| 2/29/2024 | 19.3% | 33.2% | 97.3% |
| 11/2/2023 | 5.5% | -3.1% | 3.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 10 | 10 |
| # Negative | 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 4.4% | 14.0% | 11.0% |
| Median Negative | -3.4% | -8.1% | -9.4% |
| Max Positive | 19.3% | 33.2% | 97.3% |
| Max Negative | -6.6% | -15.8% | -13.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11032025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3062025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8052024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5142024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3152023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5092022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2282022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
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