Insperity (NSP)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $38.95 | Market Cap: $1.5 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Human Resource & Employment Services
Insperity (NSP)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $38.95Market Cap: $1.5 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Human Resource & Employment Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -46% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -110%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -136% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 35x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 110x |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 3.6% | Key risksNSP key risks include [1] significant margin compression from escalating employee benefits and healthcare costs, Show more. | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Work. Themes include HR Technology & Outsourcing, Employee Benefits Management, and Workforce Management Solutions. |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -46% |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 3.6% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Work. Themes include HR Technology & Outsourcing, Employee Benefits Management, and Workforce Management Solutions. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -110%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -136% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 35x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 110x |
| Key risksNSP key risks include [1] significant margin compression from escalating employee benefits and healthcare costs, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
NSP Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Insperity (NSP) experienced a stock decline of 27.6% in the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 17, 2025, largely due to significant profitability challenges highlighted in its Third Quarter 2025 earnings report.
1. Q3 2025 Earnings Miss: Insperity reported an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.20 for the third quarter of 2025, which fell significantly short of analyst expectations of a $0.22 profit.
2. Elevated Healthcare Costs: A primary driver behind the earnings shortfall was higher-than-expected benefits costs. These costs were attributed to increased claim utilization and frequency, including elevated outpatient, inpatient, and pharmacy trends, as well as a significant rise in large claims activity. The industry-wide health insurance claim trend for 2025 was reportedly 200 to 400 basis points higher than initial estimates.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NSP Return | -3% | 50% | -2% | 5% | -32% | -48% | -47% |
| Peers Return | 8% | 39% | -8% | 26% | 12% | -26% | 45% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 110% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NSP Win Rate | 67% | 67% | 50% | 50% | 25% | 25% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 63% | 40% | 57% | 60% | 42% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NSP Max Drawdown | -69% | -5% | -28% | -16% | -37% | -58% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -47% | -8% | -25% | -9% | -14% | -32% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ADP, PAYX, TNET, BBSI, RHI. See NSP Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/16/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NSP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -34.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 410 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -72.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 259.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 358 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -52.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 111.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -80.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 407.4% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2737 days | 1480 days |
Compare to ADP, WDAY, PAYX, PAYC, ASGN
In The Past
Insperity's stock fell -34.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/1/2021. A -34.0% loss requires a 51.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to NSP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.8% | 19.8% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.2% | 4.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| 03312020 | NSP | Insperity | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 77.3% | 129.6% | -16.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.8% | 19.8% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.2% | 4.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| 03312020 | NSP | Insperity | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 77.3% | 129.6% | -16.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Insperity
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 49.78 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.8 |
| Rev LTM | 5,515 |
| Op Inc LTM | 177 |
| FCF LTM | 237 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 415 |
| CFO LTM | 300 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 478 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 5.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 6.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 5.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.8 |
| P/S | 0.8 |
| P/EBIT | 20.2 |
| P/E | 25.9 |
| P/CFO | 22.9 |
| Total Yield | 5.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.6% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.3% |
| 3M Rtn | -15.8% |
| 6M Rtn | -21.6% |
| 12M Rtn | -24.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 2.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -18.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -35.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -37.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -74.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/3/2025 | -17.9% | -27.2% | -18.9% |
| 8/1/2025 | -24.4% | -12.3% | -7.3% |
| 4/29/2025 | -14.5% | -17.6% | -18.3% |
| 2/10/2025 | 16.2% | 26.0% | 28.8% |
| 10/31/2024 | -2.9% | 2.3% | -2.8% |
| 8/1/2024 | -5.2% | -10.4% | -9.4% |
| 5/1/2024 | 1.3% | 2.5% | -8.7% |
| 2/8/2024 | -14.8% | -18.2% | -10.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 12 | 10 |
| # Negative | 14 | 12 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 8.0% | 5.6% | 9.6% |
| Median Negative | -12.0% | -14.5% | -9.8% |
| Max Positive | 16.2% | 26.0% | 28.8% |
| Max Negative | -24.4% | -27.2% | -43.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8012025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4292025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2112025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2092024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10312023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8012023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4262023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2102023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10312022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8022022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4262022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2112022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |