Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.3%, FCF Yield is 9.8%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 142%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%
Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -31%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.5%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 24%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, Digital Payments, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.3%, FCF Yield is 9.8%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 24%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, Digital Payments, Show more.
5 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0%
6 Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -31%
7 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 142%
8 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.5%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

NNI Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Nelnet Reports Strong Third Quarter 2025 Results.

Nelnet announced significantly increased GAAP net income of $106.7 million, or $2.94 per share, for the third quarter of 2025, a substantial rise compared to $2.4 million, or $0.07 per share, in the same period of the previous year. Excluding derivative market value adjustments, net income also surged to $107.3 million, or $2.95 per share, in Q3 2025 from $12.4 million, or $0.34 per share, in Q3 2024. These strong financial results were partly driven by key one-time items, including $32.9 million in non-recurring government servicing revenue and a $30.2 million gain from a venture investment.

2. Strategic Acquisition of Canadian Student Loan Servicing Business.

Nelnet Canada, a wholly-owned subsidiary, agreed to acquire Finastra's Canadian student loan servicing business. This acquisition is anticipated to close in the first quarter of 2026 and involves servicing 2.4 million borrowers, signaling an expansion of Nelnet's market footprint and future revenue potential.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
NNI Return24%39%-6%-2%22%24%141%
Peers Return1%28%-19%13%20%7%52%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
NNI Win Rate58%75%50%42%33%70% 
Peers Win Rate46%54%29%38%44%42% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
NNI Max Drawdown-34%-3%-24%-8%-6%-5% 
Peers Max Drawdown-37%-6%-24%-18%-9%-19% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PRAA, GFCX, SUIG, AXP, COF.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventNNIS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-25.5%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven34.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven159 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-36.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven57.6%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven135 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-24.2%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven31.9%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven125 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-84.8%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven558.8%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1360 days1480 days

Compare to PRAA, GFCX, SUIG, AXP, COF


In The Past

Nelnet's stock fell -25.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/14/2021. A -25.5% loss requires a 34.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Nelnet (NNI)

Better Bets than Nelnet (NNI)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to NNI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Nelnet

Peers to compare with:

Financials

NNIPRAAGFCXSUIGAXPCOFMedian
NameNelnet PRA GoodFait.Sui American.Capital . 
Mkt Price133.1817.09-2.02368.13227.24133.18
Mkt Cap4.80.7--254.7145.275.0
Rev LTM1,3481,142-470,42848,2311,348
Op Inc LTM-207----207
FCF LTM447-62-618,94420,845447
FCF 3Y Avg420-69--016,90421,063420
CFO LTM466-58-621,13922,335466
CFO 3Y Avg469-65--018,80122,259469

Growth & Margins

NNIPRAAGFCXSUIGAXPCOFMedian
NameNelnet PRA GoodFait.Sui American.Capital . 
Rev Chg LTM27.7%15.8%-76.6%9.1%25.4%25.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-0.5%5.2%-0.3%11.6%13.4%5.2%
Rev Chg Q57.6%1.4%-250.4%10.8%54.4%54.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM11.3%0.4%-49.0%2.6%12.7%11.3%
Op Mgn LTM-18.1%----18.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-10.4%----10.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM--0.8%-----0.8%
CFO/Rev LTM34.6%-5.0%-158.3%30.0%46.3%34.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg41.3%-6.4%--15.0%29.2%55.1%29.2%
FCF/Rev LTM33.2%-5.4%-158.3%26.9%43.2%33.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg36.8%-6.9%--15.0%26.3%52.2%26.3%

Valuation

NNIPRAAGFCXSUIGAXPCOFMedian
NameNelnet PRA GoodFait.Sui American.Capital . 
Mkt Cap4.80.7--254.7145.275.0
P/S3.40.5--3.32.83.0
P/EBIT-2.5----2.5
P/E10.56.3--21.896.016.2
P/CFO9.8-10.1--10.96.17.9
Total Yield10.4%15.8%--4.6%2.0%7.5%
Dividend Yield0.9%0.0%--0.0%0.9%0.5%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg10.4%-9.7%--10.7%36.3%10.6%
D/E1.76.3--0.30.41.0
Net D/E1.45.9--0.0-0.10.7

Returns

NNIPRAAGFCXSUIGAXPCOFMedian
NameNelnet PRA GoodFait.Sui American.Capital . 
1M Rtn3.7%16.7%--29.1%1.8%2.9%2.9%
3M Rtn4.9%1.2%--67.1%14.0%3.1%3.1%
6M Rtn17.5%18.8%--25.0%18.6%18.7%
12M Rtn24.1%-16.6%--23.2%23.0%23.1%
3Y Rtn39.2%-50.5%--143.8%145.0%91.5%
1M Excs Rtn3.7%16.7%--29.1%1.8%2.9%2.9%
3M Excs Rtn-1.4%-4.6%--72.5%6.3%-4.6%-4.6%
6M Excs Rtn2.8%4.0%--10.3%3.9%4.0%
12M Excs Rtn10.2%-32.9%--8.6%6.3%7.4%
3Y Excs Rtn-31.0%-121.8%--80.5%67.6%18.3%

Financials

Segment Financials

Net Income by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Education Technology Services and Payments (ETSP)6956555047
Asset Generation and Management6134632212488
Loan Servicing and Systems (LSS)5949474159
Nelnet Financial Services (NFS) Other Operating Segments3839   
Eliminations/ Reclassifications00   
Nelnet Bank-03-1-0 
Corporate and Other Activities-138-86-31163-29
Communications   -25-24
Total90407393352142


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Asset Generation and Management13,48815,94618,96520,77422,129
Nelnet Financial Services (NFS) Other Operating Segments1,1151,500   
Nelnet Bank991919536217 
Corporate and Other Activities8749071,9631,226628
Education Technology Services and Payments (ETSP)490485444437506
Loan Servicing and Systems (LSS)294273297190290
Eliminations/ Reclassifications-541-655-527-198-148
Communications    303
Total16,71219,37421,67822,64623,709


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity295,440
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-8.6%
Average Daily Volume107,189
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.76
Basic Shares Quantity36,316,315
Short % of Basic Shares0.8%

Returns Analyses

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024227202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023227202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231107202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023807202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023508202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022228202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221107202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022808202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022509202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021228202210-K 12/31/2021