SLM (SLM)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $27.14 | Market Cap: $5.6 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Consumer Finance
SLM (SLM)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $27.14Market Cap: $5.6 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Consumer Finance
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.6% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 58% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.8% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Online Banking & Lending. | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -17% |
| Key risksSLM key risks include [1] a substantial surge in credit losses and net charge-offs, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.6% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Online Banking & Lending. |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 58% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.8% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -17% |
| Key risksSLM key risks include [1] a substantial surge in credit losses and net charge-offs, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
SLM Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The search results provide information regarding SLM Corporation (Sallie Mae) for the period from August 2025 to December 2025. This includes news about analyst ratings, earnings reports, and an investor day. It also mentions a significant stock drop. I need to consolidate this information to explain a -13.3% stock movement between August 31, 2025, and December 18, 2025. Let's break down the relevant information from the search results: * **Stock Movement Confirmation**: While an exact -13.3% for the precise period 8/31/2025 to 12/18/2025 isn't directly stated, there are clear indications of significant negative movement. * On December 9, 2025, SLM stock was "down 14% in premarket trading" and "tumbled 14% in premarket trading". Another source reported a "~16.2% decline" on the same date. This significant drop is very close to the requested -13.3%. * On August 15, 2025, SLM stock "nosedives 9.3% to $29.92". This is before the start of the requested period, but indicates volatility. * One result states: "SLM stock opened at $26.84 on Wednesday. The business's fifty day moving average price is $27.49 and its 200 day moving average price is $29.90.". Another result states that on Oct 31, 2025, the closing price was $26.85. This suggests a general downward trend in the requested period. * **Key Events/Reasons**: 1. **Investor Day and Slower EPS Growth Projections (December 2025)**: SLM's 2025 investor day forum, held after market close on Monday, December 8th (making Tuesday, December 9th the reaction day), revealed slower earnings growth projections and higher expenses. The company's FY26 EPS is projected to decline approximately 19% year-over-year from the current FY25 outlook midpoint of $3.25, with earnings not expected to return to growth until fiscal 2028. 2. **Analyst Downgrades and Price Target Reductions (December 2025)**: Following the investor day, multiple analysts downgraded SLM. Compass Point lowered SLM from "Buy" to "Sell" and reduced its price target from $35.00 to $23.00 on December 9th. Morgan Stanley also downgraded SLM from "Overweight" to "Equalweight" and cut its price target. Wells Fargo also cut its target price from $35.00 to $30.00. 3. **Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Miss (October 2025)**: Sallie Mae reported its Q3 2025 financial results on October 23, 2025. The company posted a GAAP diluted EPS of $0.63, falling below the anticipated $0.80, marking a surprise of -21.25%. While revenue slightly exceeded expectations, the stock reacted negatively, with a 1% drop in the aftermarket session. 4. **Analyst Downgrades and Price Target Reductions (September-October 2025)**: Even before the December investor day, several analysts revised their ratings and price targets downward in September and October. JPMorgan downgraded SLM from "Overweight" to "Neutral" on October 7, 2025, with a price target reduction from $38.00 to $29.00. Barclays lowered its price target from $43.00 to $35.00 on October 6, 2025. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods and Morgan Stanley also lowered their price targets in early October and late September, respectively. 5. **Rising Delinquencies (August 2025)**: An Investing.com article on August 15, 2025, (just before the requested period begins) highlighted that SLM plunged 9.3% due to "Delinquency Woes". A TD Cowen analyst report revealed July delinquencies rose 49 basis points month-over-month, signaling deteriorating credit quality in SLM's loan portfolio. This negative sentiment regarding credit quality likely carried into the requested period. I have found 5 distinct key points that explain the stock movement. I will format them as requested. I should double check the "insider selling or buying" constraint, though none of the results indicated amounts exceeding $5 million. The mentions of institutional holdings are about overall ownership, not specific transactions exceeding the threshold for insider activity.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SLM Return | 41% | 61% | -13% | 19% | 47% | -1% | 239% |
| Peers Return | � | 53% | -26% | 25% | 24% | 31% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SLM Win Rate | 58% | 67% | 33% | 50% | 67% | 42% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 65% | 43% | 50% | 47% | 67% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SLM Max Drawdown | -31% | -2% | -28% | -32% | -5% | -10% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | -2% | -38% | -18% | -16% | -21% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NAVI, SOFI, NNI, CFG, PNC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SLM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -46.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 86.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 346 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -50.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 101.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 258 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -39.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 511 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -94.5% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1717.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 5,498 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to OMF, LC, DCOM, TRST, GFCX
In The Past
SLM's stock fell -46.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/1/2021. A -46.3% loss requires a 86.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SLM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.6% | 14.6% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.2% | -4.2% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.4% | 4.4% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -10.5% | -10.5% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.6% | 14.6% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.2% | -4.2% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.4% | 4.4% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -10.5% | -10.5% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for SLM
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 42.74 |
| Mkt Cap | 15.4 |
| Rev LTM | 2,621 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 361 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 478 |
| CFO LTM | 370 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 503 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 25.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 29.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 37.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 28.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 35.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 15.4 |
| P/S | 3.2 |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | 11.3 |
| P/CFO | 6.4 |
| Total Yield | 10.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 12.0% |
| D/E | 1.0 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 14.0% |
| 3M Rtn | 3.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 22.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 19.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 66.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 13.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 0.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 9.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 7.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -9.5% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/23/2025 | 3.3% | -0.4% | 4.3% |
| 7/24/2025 | 2.3% | -0.7% | -0.9% |
| 4/24/2025 | -1.4% | 6.6% | 19.3% |
| 1/23/2025 | -1.0% | -2.0% | 4.4% |
| 10/23/2024 | -2.6% | -1.1% | 9.0% |
| 7/24/2024 | -2.7% | -4.0% | -11.0% |
| 4/24/2024 | -0.8% | -3.8% | -6.6% |
| 1/24/2024 | 3.4% | 3.5% | 2.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 10 | 17 |
| # Negative | 11 | 14 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 3.3% | 8.8% | 8.0% |
| Median Negative | -3.0% | -2.5% | -11.0% |
| Max Positive | 29.3% | 24.7% | 32.5% |
| Max Negative | -16.8% | -13.9% | -19.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10232025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7242025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4242025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2202025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10232024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7242024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4242024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2222024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10252023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7262023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4262023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10262022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7272022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4272022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |