Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.6%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 58%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 36%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.8%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Online Banking & Lending.
Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -17%
3  Key risks
SLM key risks include [1] a substantial surge in credit losses and net charge-offs, Show more.
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.6%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 36%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Online Banking & Lending.
3 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 58%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.8%
5 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -17%
6 Key risks
SLM key risks include [1] a substantial surge in credit losses and net charge-offs, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

SLM Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The search results provide information regarding SLM Corporation (Sallie Mae) for the period from August 2025 to December 2025. This includes news about analyst ratings, earnings reports, and an investor day. It also mentions a significant stock drop. I need to consolidate this information to explain a -13.3% stock movement between August 31, 2025, and December 18, 2025. Let's break down the relevant information from the search results: * **Stock Movement Confirmation**: While an exact -13.3% for the precise period 8/31/2025 to 12/18/2025 isn't directly stated, there are clear indications of significant negative movement. * On December 9, 2025, SLM stock was "down 14% in premarket trading" and "tumbled 14% in premarket trading". Another source reported a "~16.2% decline" on the same date. This significant drop is very close to the requested -13.3%. * On August 15, 2025, SLM stock "nosedives 9.3% to $29.92". This is before the start of the requested period, but indicates volatility. * One result states: "SLM stock opened at $26.84 on Wednesday. The business's fifty day moving average price is $27.49 and its 200 day moving average price is $29.90.". Another result states that on Oct 31, 2025, the closing price was $26.85. This suggests a general downward trend in the requested period. * **Key Events/Reasons**: 1. **Investor Day and Slower EPS Growth Projections (December 2025)**: SLM's 2025 investor day forum, held after market close on Monday, December 8th (making Tuesday, December 9th the reaction day), revealed slower earnings growth projections and higher expenses. The company's FY26 EPS is projected to decline approximately 19% year-over-year from the current FY25 outlook midpoint of $3.25, with earnings not expected to return to growth until fiscal 2028. 2. **Analyst Downgrades and Price Target Reductions (December 2025)**: Following the investor day, multiple analysts downgraded SLM. Compass Point lowered SLM from "Buy" to "Sell" and reduced its price target from $35.00 to $23.00 on December 9th. Morgan Stanley also downgraded SLM from "Overweight" to "Equalweight" and cut its price target. Wells Fargo also cut its target price from $35.00 to $30.00. 3. **Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Miss (October 2025)**: Sallie Mae reported its Q3 2025 financial results on October 23, 2025. The company posted a GAAP diluted EPS of $0.63, falling below the anticipated $0.80, marking a surprise of -21.25%. While revenue slightly exceeded expectations, the stock reacted negatively, with a 1% drop in the aftermarket session. 4. **Analyst Downgrades and Price Target Reductions (September-October 2025)**: Even before the December investor day, several analysts revised their ratings and price targets downward in September and October. JPMorgan downgraded SLM from "Overweight" to "Neutral" on October 7, 2025, with a price target reduction from $38.00 to $29.00. Barclays lowered its price target from $43.00 to $35.00 on October 6, 2025. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods and Morgan Stanley also lowered their price targets in early October and late September, respectively. 5. **Rising Delinquencies (August 2025)**: An Investing.com article on August 15, 2025, (just before the requested period begins) highlighted that SLM plunged 9.3% due to "Delinquency Woes". A TD Cowen analyst report revealed July delinquencies rose 49 basis points month-over-month, signaling deteriorating credit quality in SLM's loan portfolio. This negative sentiment regarding credit quality likely carried into the requested period. I have found 5 distinct key points that explain the stock movement. I will format them as requested. I should double check the "insider selling or buying" constraint, though none of the results indicated amounts exceeding $5 million. The mentions of institutional holdings are about overall ownership, not specific transactions exceeding the threshold for insider activity.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
SLM Return41%61%-13%19%47%-1%239%
Peers Return53%-26%25%24%31%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
SLM Win Rate58%67%33%50%67%42% 
Peers Win Rate65%65%43%50%47%67% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
SLM Max Drawdown-31%-2%-28%-32%-5%-10% 
Peers Max Drawdown-2%-38%-18%-16%-21% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NAVI, SOFI, NNI, CFG, PNC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventSLMS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-46.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven86.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven346 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-50.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven101.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven258 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-39.0%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven63.9%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven511 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-94.5%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1717.6%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven5,498 days1,480 days

Compare to OMF, LC, DCOM, TRST, GFCX


In The Past

SLM's stock fell -46.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/1/2021. A -46.3% loss requires a 86.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About SLM (SLM)

Better Bets than SLM (SLM)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to SLM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.6%14.6%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.2%-4.2%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.4%4.4%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-10.5%-10.5%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.6%14.6%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.2%-4.2%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.4%4.4%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-10.5%-10.5%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for SLM

Peers to compare with:

Financials

SLMNAVISOFINNICFGPNCMedian
NameSLM Navient SoFi Tec.Nelnet Citizens.PNC Fina. 
Mkt Price26.8813.2025.27138.0558.61210.3042.74
Mkt Cap5.61.329.65.025.383.315.4
Rev LTM1,9207243,3221,3488,06122,5702,621
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM-330275-3,1794472,7225,427361
FCF 3Y Avg-270536-4,6714202,7998,555478
CFO LTM-330275-2,9514662,8525,427370
CFO 3Y Avg-270536-4,5064692,9248,555503

Growth & Margins

SLMNAVISOFINNICFGPNCMedian
NameSLM Navient SoFi Tec.Nelnet Citizens.PNC Fina. 
Rev Chg LTM1.0%-23.1%34.0%27.7%3.3%9.5%6.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-0.8%-27.7%33.4%-0.5%2.7%3.4%1.1%
Rev Chg Q42.1%-9.0%38.6%57.6%11.4%8.6%25.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM9.2%-2.2%8.8%11.3%2.8%2.1%5.8%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM-17.2%38.0%-88.8%34.6%35.4%24.0%29.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-14.4%53.4%-204.8%41.3%35.8%39.9%37.9%
FCF/Rev LTM-17.2%38.0%-95.7%33.2%33.8%24.0%28.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-14.4%53.4%-211.1%36.8%34.3%39.9%35.5%

Valuation

SLMNAVISOFINNICFGPNCMedian
NameSLM Navient SoFi Tec.Nelnet Citizens.PNC Fina. 
Mkt Cap5.61.329.65.025.383.315.4
P/S3.01.89.33.42.83.53.2
P/EBIT-------
P/E9.2-25.848.310.513.512.211.3
P/CFO-17.44.7-10.59.88.014.76.4
Total Yield12.8%1.2%2.1%10.4%10.7%11.5%10.6%
Dividend Yield1.9%5.0%0.0%0.9%3.2%3.3%2.6%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-5.6%31.4%-50.4%10.4%17.3%13.5%12.0%
D/E1.235.50.11.70.50.81.0
Net D/E0.635.0-0.11.4-1.60.20.4

Returns

SLMNAVISOFINNICFGPNCMedian
NameSLM Navient SoFi Tec.Nelnet Citizens.PNC Fina. 
1M Rtn0.4%17.9%-6.5%10.6%17.9%17.5%14.0%
3M Rtn-4.0%2.0%-6.9%10.6%13.1%4.2%3.1%
6M Rtn-14.5%0.9%64.5%22.4%44.4%22.1%22.3%
12M Rtn-1.2%-4.7%51.7%29.9%36.0%10.0%19.9%
3Y Rtn79.3%-9.6%444.6%54.9%75.4%57.8%66.6%
1M Excs Rtn-0.3%17.2%-7.3%9.9%17.2%16.7%13.3%
3M Excs Rtn-6.5%-1.1%-11.5%6.5%8.9%1.5%0.2%
6M Excs Rtn-26.9%-11.5%52.1%10.0%32.0%9.8%9.9%
12M Excs Rtn-10.5%-17.6%44.4%18.1%22.1%-2.8%7.6%
3Y Excs Rtn2.3%-79.0%399.4%-17.1%-2.1%-17.0%-9.5%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Originating and servicing high-quality Private Education Loans and providing other education-related1,8091,8232,0271,8001,672
Total1,8091,8232,0271,8001,672


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity13,975,878
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-15.3%
Average Daily Volume1,917,715
Days-to-Cover Short Interest7.29
Basic Shares Quantity207,144,000
Short % of Basic Shares6.7%

Returns Analyses

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/23/20253.3%-0.4%4.3%
7/24/20252.3%-0.7%-0.9%
4/24/2025-1.4%6.6%19.3%
1/23/2025-1.0%-2.0%4.4%
10/23/2024-2.6%-1.1%9.0%
7/24/2024-2.7%-4.0%-11.0%
4/24/2024-0.8%-3.8%-6.6%
1/24/20243.4%3.5%2.4%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive131017
# Negative11147
Median Positive3.3%8.8%8.0%
Median Negative-3.0%-2.5%-11.0%
Max Positive29.3%24.7%32.5%
Max Negative-16.8%-13.9%-19.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251023202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025724202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025424202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024220202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241023202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024724202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024424202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023222202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231025202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023726202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023426202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022223202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221026202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022727202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022427202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021224202210-K 12/31/2021