Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -70%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -85%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 3505%
1 Attractive yield
Dividend Yield is 5.0%, FCF Yield is 21%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 12.07
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -23%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -28%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -9.0%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 37%
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.0%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Online Banking & Lending.
  
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38%
1 Attractive yield
Dividend Yield is 5.0%, FCF Yield is 21%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 37%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Online Banking & Lending.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -70%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -85%
5 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 12.07
6 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 3505%
7 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -23%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -28%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -9.0%
8 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.0%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

NAVI Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Navient (NAVI) experienced an approximate -8.1% stock movement between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, primarily due to several key factors:

1. Mixed Q3 2025 Earnings with Revenue Miss and Significant Net Loss
Navient reported mixed financial results for the third quarter of 2025 on October 29, 2025, which contributed to negative investor sentiment. While the company surpassed analyst estimates for Earnings Per Share (EPS) with $0.29 against a consensus of $0.1808, it missed revenue forecasts, reporting $146 million compared to an estimated $159.6 million. The company also reported a GAAP net loss of $86 million (-$0.87 diluted EPS) and a Core Earnings net loss of $83 million (-$0.84 diluted EPS). This pre-market trading decline following the announcement indicated that the revenue shortfall and overall losses overshadowed the EPS beat.

2. Substantial Provision for Loan Losses and Deteriorating Credit Quality
A significant contributing factor to Navient's net loss in Q3 2025 was a $168 million provision for loan losses. Specifically, the Consumer Lending segment reported a net loss of $76 million due to a $155 million provision, with $138 million attributed primarily to elevated delinquency balances and the macroeconomic outlook. The company also revised its default and post-default recovery assumptions for previously originated loans, reflecting recent credit trends and changes in public policy, resulting in a $151 million provision on these loans. This indicates ongoing concerns about the credit performance of its loan portfolios.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
NAVI Return-23%124%-19%18%-26%-2%19%
Peers Return2%17%-3%10%33%-6%59%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
NAVI Win Rate50%83%50%50%42%50% 
Peers Win Rate33%31%19%27%56%38% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
NAVI Max Drawdown-63%0%-39%-11%-27%-18% 
Peers Max Drawdown-22%-4%-13%-5%-1%-25% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: JEF, SEIC, LAZ, GFCX, SUIG. See NAVI Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventNAVIS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-46.2%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven86.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-67.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven209.0%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven406 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-49.9%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven99.4%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven857 days120 days

Compare to JEF, SEIC, LAZ, GFCX, SUIG


In The Past

Navient's stock fell -46.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/17/2021. A -46.2% loss requires a 86.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Navient (NAVI)

Better Bets than Navient (NAVI)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to NAVI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Navient

Peers to compare with:

Financials

NAVIJEFSEICLAZGFCXSUIGMedian
NameNavient Jefferie.SEI Inve.Lazard GoodFait.Sui  
Mkt Price12.6058.4181.0053.48-2.0253.48
Mkt Cap1.212.610.05.2--7.6
Rev LTM72410,7262,2473,053-42,247
Op Inc LTM-4,693611394--611
FCF LTM275-1,971622439-6275
FCF 3Y Avg536-1,927504405--0405
CFO LTM275-1,750677482-6275
CFO 3Y Avg536-1,735563447--0447

Growth & Margins

NAVIJEFSEICLAZGFCXSUIGMedian
NameNavient Jefferie.SEI Inve.Lazard GoodFait.Sui  
Rev Chg LTM-23.1%11.4%9.4%-0.9%-76.6%9.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-27.7%14.6%3.6%1.1%-0.3%1.1%
Rev Chg Q-9.0%12.0%7.7%-3.7%-250.4%7.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-2.2%3.0%1.9%-1.0%-49.0%1.9%
Op Mgn LTM-43.8%27.2%12.9%--27.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-43.7%24.7%7.8%--24.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM--0.9%0.2%-1.8%---0.9%
CFO/Rev LTM38.0%-16.3%30.1%15.8%-158.3%30.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg53.4%-19.1%27.1%14.9%--15.0%14.9%
FCF/Rev LTM38.0%-18.4%27.7%14.4%-158.3%27.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg53.4%-21.2%24.3%13.4%--15.0%13.4%

Valuation

NAVIJEFSEICLAZGFCXSUIGMedian
NameNavient Jefferie.SEI Inve.Lazard GoodFait.Sui  
Mkt Cap1.212.610.05.2--7.6
P/S1.81.34.61.7--1.7
P/EBIT-3.211.711.9--11.7
P/E-25.819.415.018.9--17.0
P/CFO4.7-8.015.410.7--7.7
Total Yield1.2%5.2%7.9%8.8%--6.5%
Dividend Yield5.0%0.0%1.2%3.6%--2.4%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg31.4%-16.7%5.5%---5.5%
D/E35.51.70.00.4--1.1
Net D/E35.00.9-0.10.2--0.5

Returns

NAVIJEFSEICLAZGFCXSUIGMedian
NameNavient Jefferie.SEI Inve.Lazard GoodFait.Sui  
1M Rtn3.3%11.2%0.1%10.7%--29.1%3.3%
3M Rtn-7.6%-7.8%-7.7%-1.7%--67.1%-7.7%
6M Rtn-4.9%20.7%-4.3%26.3%--8.2%
12M Rtn-12.5%-23.0%0.3%-1.5%---7.0%
3Y Rtn-16.7%76.6%33.5%---33.5%
1M Excs Rtn3.3%11.2%0.2%10.7%--29.1%3.3%
3M Excs Rtn-13.8%-14.8%-14.6%-10.3%--72.5%-14.6%
6M Excs Rtn-19.6%6.0%-19.1%11.6%---6.6%
12M Excs Rtn-28.9%-37.7%-14.4%-17.5%---23.2%
3Y Excs Rtn-84.7%5.6%-36.1%----36.1%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Federal Education Loans41,57348,500   
Consumer Lending17,97619,795   
Other1,4002,100   
Business Processing380390   
Total61,32970,785   


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity7,457,583
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-2.0%
Average Daily Volume617,814
Days-to-Cover Short Interest12.07
Basic Shares Quantity98,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares7.6%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251029202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025730202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025430202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024227202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241030202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024724202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024424202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023226202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231025202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023726202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023426202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022224202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221026202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022727202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022427202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021225202210-K 12/31/2021