Niagen Bioscience (NAGE)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $6.54 | Market Cap: $521.8 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Niagen Bioscience (NAGE)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $6.54Market Cap: $521.8 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 39x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 35x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 36x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Nutritional Supplements, and Longevity & Healthy Aging. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Nutritional Supplements, and Longevity & Healthy Aging. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 39x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 35x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 36x |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
NAGE Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Niagen Bioscience (NAGE) experienced a significant stock decline of 34% between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025. Here are key factors contributing to this movement:
1. InvestingPro's Overvaluation Alert in July 2025: InvestingPro's Fair Value analysis identified NAGE as significantly overvalued in July 2025, just before a dramatic decline. The model estimated the stock's intrinsic value at $8.01 when it was trading at $12.71, indicating an overvaluation of nearly 37%. This analysis was validated as the stock corrected, falling 35% in July alone, and reaching $6.88 by November 6, 2025, representing a 46% decline from its peak.
2. Q3 2025 Earnings Performance and Market Reaction: Despite reporting strong third-quarter 2025 results on November 4, 2025, with a 33% year-over-year revenue increase to $34.0 million and net income rising to $4.6 million, the stock fell by 3.73% to $7.06 in after-hours trading. This suggests that even positive financial outcomes were not enough to counter negative market sentiment or valuation concerns.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NAGE Return | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| Peers Return | 2% | -1% | 6% | 8% | -0% | 2% | 17% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NAGE Win Rate | - | - | - | - | - | 57% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 13% | 8% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 90% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NAGE Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -2% | -5% | 0% | -0% | -1% | -2% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTX, AIXC, ALPS, BBOT, EVMN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
NAGE has limited trading history. Below is the Health Care sector ETF (XLV) in its place.
| Event | XLV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -16.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 599 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -28.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 116 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -15.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 326 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -40.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1100 days | 1480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -16.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/8/2022. A -16.1% loss requires a 19.1% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Is Niagen Bioscience Stock Built to Withstand More Downside? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to NAGE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Niagen Bioscience
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 8.80 |
| Mkt Cap | 59.4 |
| Rev LTM | 10 |
| Op Inc LTM | -70 |
| FCF LTM | -6 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 10 |
| CFO LTM | -6 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 11 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 23.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 16.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 21.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -0.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 14.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 17.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 17.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 59.4 |
| P/S | 7.3 |
| P/EBIT | 30.5 |
| P/E | 31.8 |
| P/CFO | 30.8 |
| Total Yield | 3.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.3% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -9.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 12.5% |
| 6M Rtn | -20.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 1.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 44.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -9.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 4.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -34.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -14.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -25.9% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Products segment | 70 | 60 | 57 | 36 | |
| Ingredients segment | 11 | 9 | 7 | 6 | |
| Analytical Reference Standards and Services segment | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | |
| Corporate and other | 0 | 0 | |||
| Total | 84 | 72 | 67 | 46 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Products segment | 14 | 7 | 6 | 0 | |
| Ingredients segment | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |
| Analytical Reference Standards and Services segment | -1 | -0 | -0 | 0 | |
| Corporate and other | -25 | -28 | -36 | -34 | |
| Total | -6 | -19 | -27 | -31 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3042025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3062024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3082023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8102022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5122022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3142022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Pamir Ozan | Chief Financial Officer | 11172025 | Buy | 6.81 | 4,465 | 30,406 | 50,204 | Form |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |