Tearsheet

Marathon Petroleum (MPC)


Market Price (7/10/2026): $284.7 | Market Cap: $84.0 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Marathon Petroleum (MPC)


Market Price (7/10/2026): $284.7
Market Cap: $84.0 Bil
Sector: Energy
Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.9%, FCF Yield is 6.8%

Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 22 Bil

Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 9.4 Bil, FCF LTM is 5.7 Bil

Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 33%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Hydrogen Economy, and US Energy Independence. Themes include Renewable Fuel Production, Show more.

Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0%

Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.7%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -7.9%

Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 68%

Key risks
MPC key risks include [1] significant legal liabilities from climate change litigation across various states and [2] short-term profitability impacts from significant planned maintenance costs for its facilities.

0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.9%, FCF Yield is 6.8%
1 Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 22 Bil
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 9.4 Bil, FCF LTM is 5.7 Bil
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 33%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Hydrogen Economy, and US Energy Independence. Themes include Renewable Fuel Production, Show more.
5 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0%
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.7%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -7.9%
7 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 68%
8 Key risks
MPC key risks include [1] significant legal liabilities from climate change litigation across various states and [2] short-term profitability impacts from significant planned maintenance costs for its facilities.

MPC in ETFs

Weight = MPC's share of each fund

SPY0.12%
VOO0.11%
IVV0.12%
VTI0.10%
ITOT0.11%
IWB0.11%
RSP0.19%
VTV0.28%
+30 more covered ETFs

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

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Updated on 7/8/2026

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) stock has gained about 15% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Strong Fiscal Q1 2026 Earnings Beat and Upgraded Fiscal Q2 2026 Outlook.

Marathon Petroleum reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.65 for fiscal Q1 2026 on May 5, 2026, significantly surpassing analyst estimates of $0.75 by $0.90. The company also exceeded revenue forecasts, reporting $34.57 billion against an anticipated $33.49 billion. This strong performance was followed by a substantial increase in fiscal Q2 2026 EPS estimates, which surged 70.6% over 90 days to a consensus of $11.77 per share by late June 2026, implying an approximate 197.2% year-over-year growth. MPC further guided for high refinery utilization of approximately 94% for fiscal Q2 2026, up from 89% in fiscal Q1 2026, after strategically front-loading maintenance.

2. Historically Elevated Refining Margins (Crack Spreads) Driven by Geopolitical Tensions.

The stock benefited from historically high gasoline and distillate crack spreads throughout fiscal Q2 2026. These elevated margins, which are the difference between crude oil costs and refined product prices, were largely driven by structural tightness in global refined product markets resulting from the ongoing Iran conflict and disruptions to key shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz. As the nation's largest refiner, Marathon Petroleum was particularly well-positioned to capitalize on these favorable market conditions, directly enhancing its profitability and cash flow.

Show more
Updated on 7/8/2026

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) stock has gained about 15% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Strong Fiscal Q1 2026 Earnings Beat and Upgraded Fiscal Q2 2026 Outlook.

Marathon Petroleum reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.65 for fiscal Q1 2026 on May 5, 2026, significantly surpassing analyst estimates of $0.75 by $0.90. The company also exceeded revenue forecasts, reporting $34.57 billion against an anticipated $33.49 billion. This strong performance was followed by a substantial increase in fiscal Q2 2026 EPS estimates, which surged 70.6% over 90 days to a consensus of $11.77 per share by late June 2026, implying an approximate 197.2% year-over-year growth. MPC further guided for high refinery utilization of approximately 94% for fiscal Q2 2026, up from 89% in fiscal Q1 2026, after strategically front-loading maintenance.

2. Historically Elevated Refining Margins (Crack Spreads) Driven by Geopolitical Tensions.

The stock benefited from historically high gasoline and distillate crack spreads throughout fiscal Q2 2026. These elevated margins, which are the difference between crude oil costs and refined product prices, were largely driven by structural tightness in global refined product markets resulting from the ongoing Iran conflict and disruptions to key shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz. As the nation's largest refiner, Marathon Petroleum was particularly well-positioned to capitalize on these favorable market conditions, directly enhancing its profitability and cash flow.

3. Robust Shareholder Returns.

Marathon Petroleum demonstrated a strong commitment to shareholder returns during the period. The company returned over $1 billion to shareholders in fiscal Q1 2026, including $750 million in share repurchases. Additionally, the board of directors authorized an incremental $5 billion share repurchase program, increasing the total remaining authorization to $8.6 billion. The company also declared a quarterly dividend of $1.00 per share, payable in June 2026.

4. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Price Target Revisions.

Analysts maintained a generally positive outlook for MPC, with several firms raising their price targets in May 2026. Barclays increased its price target from $230.00 to $270.00, Jefferies Financial Group raised its objective from $279.00 to $296.00, UBS Group set a target price of $285.00, and The Goldman Sachs Group boosted its target from $264.00 to $291.00. As of early July 2026, the consensus analyst rating for Marathon Petroleum was "Moderate Buy" with an average 12-month price target of approximately $272.63.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The 16.5% change in MPC stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 12.2% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)33120267092026Change
Stock Price ($)243.25283.3016.5%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)132,699135,3822.0%
Net Income Margin (%)3.0%3.4%12.2%
P/E Multiple18.018.00.4%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)2992951.4%
Cumulative Contribution16.5%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

3/31/2026 to 7/9/2026
ReturnCorrelation
MPC16.5% 
Market (SPY)15.6%-30.1%
Sector (XLE)-10.5%79.1%

Fundamental Drivers

The 75.7% change in MPC stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 58.2% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)123120257092026Change
Stock Price ($)161.20283.3075.7%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)133,262135,3821.6%
Net Income Margin (%)2.2%3.4%58.2%
P/E Multiple16.918.06.5%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)3032952.7%
Cumulative Contribution75.7%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

12/31/2025 to 7/9/2026
ReturnCorrelation
MPC75.7% 
Market (SPY)10.5%-15.6%
Sector (XLE)23.4%72.8%

Fundamental Drivers

The 73.9% change in MPC stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 93.5% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)63020257092026Change
Stock Price ($)162.92283.3073.9%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)137,675135,382-1.7%
Net Income Margin (%)1.8%3.4%93.5%
P/E Multiple21.018.0-13.9%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)3132956.1%
Cumulative Contribution73.9%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

6/30/2025 to 7/9/2026
ReturnCorrelation
MPC73.9% 
Market (SPY)22.7%-0.2%
Sector (XLE)32.4%70.0%

Fundamental Drivers

The 158.4% change in MPC stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 507.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)63020237092026Change
Stock Price ($)109.65283.30158.4%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)174,259135,382-22.3%
Net Income Margin (%)9.4%3.4%-63.6%
P/E Multiple3.018.0507.6%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)44429550.5%
Cumulative Contribution158.4%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

6/30/2023 to 7/9/2026
ReturnCorrelation
MPC158.4% 
Market (SPY)75.6%31.1%
Sector (XLE)47.6%73.3%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
MPC Return61%87%30%-4%19%74%680%
Peers Return31%98%12%-22%34%77%430%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%9%99%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MPC Win Rate67%75%50%50%67%100% 
Peers Win Rate53%75%52%33%65%71% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%43% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MPC Max Drawdown-21%-30%-23%-39%-25%-15% 
Peers Max Drawdown-39%-33%-29%-45%-37%-19% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: VLO, PSX, PBF, DINO, DK. See MPC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/9/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventMPCS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-24.3%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven32.1%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven34 days79 days
2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis
  % Loss-17.3%-6.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven20.9%7.1%
  Time to Breakeven81 days31 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-71.2%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven247.1%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven336 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-36.7%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven57.9%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven1136 days105 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-44.7%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven80.7%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven462 days62 days
2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse
  % Loss-30.6%-6.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven44.1%7.3%
  Time to Breakeven212 days15 days

Compare to VLO, PSX, PBF, DINO, DK

In The Past

Marathon Petroleum's stock fell -24.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 32.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventMPCS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-24.3%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven32.1%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven34 days79 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-71.2%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven247.1%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven336 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-36.7%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven57.9%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven1136 days105 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-44.7%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven80.7%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven462 days62 days
2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse
  % Loss-30.6%-6.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven44.1%7.3%
  Time to Breakeven212 days15 days
2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion
  % Loss-32.9%-17.9%
  % Gain to Breakeven49.1%21.8%
  Time to Breakeven124 days123 days

Compare to VLO, PSX, PBF, DINO, DK

In The Past

Marathon Petroleum's stock fell -24.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 32.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Marathon Petroleum (MPC)

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) is an integrated downstream energy company primarily focused on operations within the United States. The company's business is divided into two main segments: Refining & Marketing, and Midstream. This structure allows MPC to manage the process from crude oil input to the distribution of finished energy products.

The Refining & Marketing segment is responsible for refining crude oil and other feedstocks at its U.S. refineries located in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions. Its primary products include various transportation fuels such as gasoline, heavy fuel oil, and asphalt, along with other chemicals like aromatics, propane, and sulfur. MPC sells these refined products to a broad customer base, including wholesale marketing customers both domestically and internationally, buyers on the spot market, and independent entrepreneurs who operate thousands of Marathon-branded and ARCO-branded fuel outlets across the U.S. and Mexico.

Complementing its refining operations, the Midstream segment provides crucial logistics and infrastructure services. This segment transports, stores, distributes, and markets crude oil and refined products utilizing an extensive network of pipelines, terminals, towboats, and barges. Furthermore, it gathers, processes, and transports natural gas, and handles the gathering, transportation, fractionation, storage, and marketing of natural gas liquids, playing a vital role in moving various energy commodities throughout the supply chain.

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Marathon Petroleum is essentially the refining, pipeline, and gas station division of an oil giant like ExxonMobil or Shell.

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Major Products

  • Transportation Fuels: Reformulated gasolines and blend-grade gasolines for vehicles.
  • Heavy Fuel Oil: A residual fuel used in industrial applications and marine vessels.
  • Asphalt: Primarily used in road construction and paving.
  • Aromatics: Hydrocarbons used as chemical feedstocks for various industrial products.
  • Propane: A hydrocarbon gas used as fuel for heating, cooking, and vehicles.
  • Propylene: A petrochemical feedstock used for plastics and chemicals.
  • Sulfur: An industrial byproduct with various applications.
  • Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs): Hydrocarbons like ethane, propane, butane, and natural gasoline, extracted from natural gas.

Major Services

  • Crude Oil and Refined Products Logistics: Transporting, storing, distributing, and marketing crude oil and refined products through an extensive infrastructure.
  • Natural Gas Midstream Services: Gathering, processing, and transporting natural gas.
  • Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs) Midstream Services: Gathering, transporting, fractionating, storing, and marketing natural gas liquids.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) sells primarily to other companies rather than directly to individual consumers. Based on the provided background, the major categories of its business customers include:

  • Wholesale marketing customers in the United States and internationally.
  • Buyers on the spot market.
  • Independent entrepreneurs who operate primarily Marathon branded outlets.
  • Direct dealer locations primarily under the ARCO brand, supplied through long-term fuel supply contracts.

The provided background information does not specify the names of individual public companies that are major customers within these categories.

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Maryann Mannen, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

Maryann Mannen serves as the Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer of Marathon Petroleum Corporation. She was appointed Chairman in 2026, named President in January 2024, and assumed her current role as CEO in August 2024. Prior to her current position, Ms. Mannen served as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Marathon Petroleum Corporation since 2021.

John J. Quaid, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

John J. Quaid is the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Marathon Petroleum Corporation. He received $800,000 in base salary, $3.58 million in stock award, and $135,140 in other compensation, totaling $5.81 million in 2024. No information available regarding him founding or managing other companies, selling companies, or managing private equity-backed companies.

Michael J. Hennigan, Executive Chairman

Michael J. Hennigan is the Executive Chairman of Marathon Petroleum Corporation, a position he transitioned to in August 2024, after serving as Chief Executive Officer of MPC and Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer of MPLX GP LLC. Before joining MPLX GP LLC in 2017, Mr. Hennigan was President, Crude, NGL and Refined Products of the general partner of Energy Transfer Partners L.P., and prior to that, he was President and Chief Executive Officer of Sunoco Logistics Partners L.P. He began his career with Sunoco, Inc. in 1981. Mr. Hennigan has been the head of nine different companies, including ETC Sunoco Holdings LLC and Sunoco Partners LLC.

Timothy J. Aydt, Executive Vice President, Refining

Timothy J. Aydt serves as the Executive Vice President, Refining at Marathon Petroleum Corporation, a role he was appointed to in October 2022. He joined Marathon in 1985 as a pipeline engineer and has held various positions of increasing responsibility across marketing and transportation engineering, pipeline, and retail divisions. His previous roles include Executive Vice President & Chief Commercial Officer of MPLX, Vice President Business Development, and President of Marathon Pipe Line LLC. Mr. Aydt also served as project director for the $2.2 billion Detroit Heavy Oil Upgrade Project.

Rick D. Hessling, Chief Commercial Officer

Rick D. Hessling is the Chief Commercial Officer of Marathon Petroleum Corporation and also serves as Senior Vice President of MPLX GP LLC. He began his career with Marathon in 1990 and has held a variety of positions within the Marketing segment, including acquisition specialist, jobber marketing representative, sales manager, crude oil and natural gas supply and trading manager, and senior vice president, Global Feedstocks.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The key risks to Marathon Petroleum (MPC) are primarily associated with the energy transition, the inherent volatility of refining margins, and operational disruptions.

  1. Energy Transition and Regulatory Pressure: Marathon Petroleum faces a significant long-term structural threat from the global energy transition, specifically the rise of electric vehicles and alternative fuels, which is expected to reduce demand for liquid transportation fuels like gasoline and diesel post-2030. This trend is exacerbated by increasingly stringent environmental regulations and policies, such as mandates from the California Air Resources Board (CARB), aimed at reducing vehicle emissions. Compliance with these regulations can lead to substantial financial obligations and potentially force the closure of less-efficient assets, particularly on the West Coast. Furthermore, the company has a history of environmental violations, which contributes to reputational risk and ongoing regulatory scrutiny.

  2. Commodity Price Volatility and Refining Margin Compression: As a "margin player" in the refining industry, Marathon Petroleum's profitability is highly sensitive to the volatile fluctuations between crude oil prices (feedstock) and refined product prices (crack spreads). Rapid increases in crude oil prices, without a corresponding increase in refined product prices, can compress refining margins, leading to a collapse in profitability and reduced cash flows. The company's financial performance is directly impacted by these market risks and the inability to secure attractive contract renewal terms.

  3. Operational Risks, Environmental Incidents, and Natural Disasters: Marathon Petroleum's extensive network of refineries, pipelines, and terminals is vulnerable to business interruptions caused by natural disasters (e.g., severe weather events), accidents (e.g., chemical leaks, fires, explosions), and third-party actions. Such incidents can result in significant damage to infrastructure, operational downtime, financial losses, and costly remediation efforts. Additionally, these events can lead to severe environmental consequences, regulatory penalties, and negative impacts on public perception and community relations.

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The clear emerging threat for Marathon Petroleum (MPC) is the accelerating global shift towards the electrification of transportation. As electric vehicles (EVs) gain market share and governments increasingly mandate the phase-out of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, the long-term demand for gasoline and diesel, which are core refined products of MPC's Refining & Marketing segment, will diminish. This trend directly impacts the fundamental business model of converting crude oil into transportation fuels and subsequently affects the volume of products transported and stored by its Midstream segment.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Addressable Markets for Marathon Petroleum's Main Products and Services

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) operates in key segments of the downstream energy market, primarily across the United States. Its main products and services include transportation fuels, asphalt, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and natural gas processing and distribution. The addressable market sizes for these offerings are detailed below, with regions clarified where specified:

Refining & Marketing Segment

  • Gasoline (Transportation Fuels): The global gasoline market size was estimated at USD 129.5 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 145.7 billion by 2033, with North America accounting for the largest share in 2024. The U.S. gasoline and petroleum wholesaling market was valued at USD 808.1 billion in 2025. U.S. motor gasoline consumption averaged 8.91 million barrels per day in 2025 and is projected to average 8.84 million barrels per day in 2026.
  • Diesel Fuel (Transportation Fuels): The U.S. diesel fuel market is estimated to reach USD 60 billion by 2031. Globally, the diesel fuel market size was estimated at USD 1,106.15 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach approximately USD 1,381.63 billion by 2033. U.S. diesel consumption averaged approximately 3.8 million barrels per day in 2023.
  • Asphalt: The market size for asphalt manufacturing in the U.S. was USD 36.1 billion in 2024 and is projected to be USD 36.7 billion in 2025.

Midstream Segment

  • Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs): The Natural Gas Liquid (NGL) market in North America is estimated to grow from USD 7.08 billion in 2024 to USD 11.53 billion by 2033. The United States held 92.8% of the North American NGL market share in 2024. The global natural gas liquids market size was estimated at USD 23.38 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 32.18 billion by 2030.
  • Natural Gas Processing and Distribution: The global gas processing market size was accounted for at USD 243.62 billion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 457.28 billion by 2035. North America held the largest revenue share in the global gas processing market in 2023. The U.S. natural gas distribution market was valued at USD 170.0 billion in 2024, with projections to reach USD 186.0 billion by 2032.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) is strategically positioning itself for future revenue growth over the next two to three years through several key initiatives:

  • Midstream Segment Expansion: Marathon Petroleum anticipates significant revenue growth from its Midstream segment, primarily through its subsidiary MPLX. The company is allocating substantial capital, with approximately $2.0 billion projected for 2025 and $2.4 billion for 2026, largely focused on expanding its natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGL) businesses. These investments include increasing the capacity of the BANGL NGL pipeline and advancing Permian to Gulf Coast natural gas pipelines, with projects expected to come online by the second half of 2026. MPLX is targeting a distribution growth rate of 12.5% over the next two years, which is expected to translate into over $3.5 billion in annual cash distributions to MPC, indirectly bolstering its financial capacity for further growth.
  • Refinery Optimization and High-Return Projects: MPC is investing in high-return projects at its refineries to enhance operational efficiency, reliability, and export capacity. These strategic investments aim to optimize refinery operations and increase production. Examples include a distillate hydrotreater at the Galveston Bay refinery, projected to yield over 20% returns by 2027, and projects focused on energy efficiency at the Los Angeles refinery and the Robinson Product Flexibility Project, both targeting returns of 20% to 25%. The company also plans to deploy digital twins and Advanced Process Control (APC) to achieve 1-3% incremental utilization gains and implement predictive maintenance programs to reduce unplanned downtime.
  • Expansion in Renewable Fuels Production: Marathon Petroleum is actively expanding its footprint in renewable fuels. The company is converting existing facilities, such as the Martinez and Dickinson refineries, to increase renewable diesel production, aiming for a capacity nearing 914 million gallons per year. These expansions position MPC as a significant U.S. producer of renewable fuels and allow it to capitalize on opportunities related to Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) and Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits, as well as potential demand growth for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) through 2025-2030.
  • Export Market Expansion and Diversification: MPC is optimizing its export platform by leveraging its high-utilization, high-complexity refineries, particularly those on the Gulf and West Coasts. This strategy supports growing diesel and gasoline exports to international markets including Latin America, Mexico, Central America, the Caribbean, and Europe, thereby diversifying its customer base and increasing revenue streams.

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Share Repurchases

  • Marathon Petroleum returned $4.5 billion to shareholders in 2025 through share repurchases and dividends.
  • As of December 31, 2025, Marathon Petroleum had $4.4 billion available under its share repurchase authorizations.
  • In April 2024, the board approved an incremental $5 billion share repurchase authorization, bringing the total available to approximately $8.8 billion at that time.

Share Issuance

  • Marathon Petroleum's shares outstanding were 0.306 billion in 2025, reflecting a 10.26% decline from 2024 due to repurchases.
  • Shares outstanding were 0.341 billion in 2024, a 16.63% decline from 2023.
  • Shares outstanding were 0.409 billion in 2023, representing a 20.74% decline from 2022.

Inbound Investments

  • Institutional investors collectively own approximately 76.77% of Marathon Petroleum's stock.
  • Vanguard Group Inc. increased its stake, owning 38,866,104 shares worth $6.456 billion after acquiring an additional 3,924,713 shares in a recent quarter (likely Q2 2025 or late 2024).
  • Norges Bank acquired a new position in Marathon Petroleum during Q2 for approximately $527.2 million.

Outbound Investments

  • In March 2023, Marathon Petroleum acquired a 49.9% interest in LF Bioenergy, an emerging producer of renewable natural gas (RNG), for $50 million, with potential for an additional $50 million based on earn-out targets.
  • Marathon Petroleum divested its partial interest in ethanol production facilities for $425 million in the second quarter of 2025.
  • In 2025, the company made strategic acquisitions including Northwind Midstream for $2.4 billion and the BANGL Acquisition for $703 million, to enhance its Midstream segment.

Capital Expenditures

  • Marathon Petroleum's 2026 standalone capital spending outlook (excluding MPLX) is $1.5 billion, with about 65% allocated to value-enhancing projects and 35% to sustaining capital.
  • Planned capital investment in refining for 2026 is $700 million, a nearly 20% reduction year-over-year, focusing on projects like Garyville feedstock optimization and a Galveston Bay distillate hydrotreater.
  • Actual standalone capital expenditures for Marathon Petroleum in 2025 were $1.58 billion, while its midstream segment, MPLX, had capital expenditures of $2.95 billion.

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Financials

MPCVLOPSXPBFDINODKMedian
NameMarathon.Valero E.Phillips.PBF Ener.HF Sincl.Delek US  
Mkt Price283.30281.25189.8253.3177.5256.09133.67
Mkt Cap83.683.876.36.214.03.445.2
Rev LTM135,382124,810134,48630,17027,62210,73477,490
Op Inc LTM6,4505,8123,890-2381,6932652,792
FCF LTM5,7025,552119-6841,324464894
FCF 3Y Avg6,5785,8152,089-4411,208661,649
CFO LTM9,4386,2642,5112601,8611,0592,186
CFO 3Y Avg9,3666,6534,2401811,6675162,953

Growth & Margins

MPCVLOPSXPBFDINODKMedian
NameMarathon.Valero E.Phillips.PBF Ener.HF Sincl.Delek US  
Rev Chg LTM-1.7%-2.8%-2.4%-4.3%-1.1%-5.6%-2.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-7.9%-10.3%-7.1%-13.5%-10.1%-17.2%-10.2%
Rev Chg Q8.5%7.0%6.9%11.9%11.8%0.4%7.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.0%1.7%1.6%2.9%2.8%0.1%1.9%
Op Inc Chg LTM49.2%151.9%544.0%81.5%2,553.6%162.6%157.3%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg-20.3%9.3%136.8%-53.3%799.7%-87.5%-5.5%
Op Mgn LTM4.8%4.7%2.9%-0.8%6.1%2.5%3.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg4.9%4.4%2.6%-0.2%4.2%-0.1%3.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.4%1.1%0.3%2.3%2.7%-0.5%0.8%
CFO/Rev LTM7.0%5.0%1.9%0.9%6.7%9.9%5.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg6.7%5.1%3.0%0.4%5.7%4.1%4.6%
FCF/Rev LTM4.2%4.4%0.1%-2.3%4.8%4.3%4.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg4.7%4.4%1.5%-1.5%4.1%0.2%2.8%

Valuation

MPCVLOPSXPBFDINODKMedian
NameMarathon.Valero E.Phillips.PBF Ener.HF Sincl.Delek US  
Mkt Cap83.683.876.36.214.03.445.2
P/S0.60.70.60.20.50.30.5
P/Op Inc13.014.419.6-26.28.312.712.9
P/EBIT9.113.512.38.17.910.29.7
P/E18.019.918.514.111.4-65.816.1
P/CFO8.913.430.424.17.53.211.1
Total Yield6.9%6.7%8.0%9.1%11.4%0.3%7.4%
Dividend Yield1.4%1.7%2.6%2.0%2.7%1.8%1.9%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg10.3%10.6%3.5%-17.6%10.9%-14.3%6.9%
D/E0.40.10.40.60.21.00.4
Net D/E0.40.10.30.50.20.80.3

Returns

MPCVLOPSXPBFDINODKMedian
NameMarathon.Valero E.Phillips.PBF Ener.HF Sincl.Delek US  
1M Rtn9.7%10.8%6.0%32.1%11.3%20.5%11.1%
3M Rtn27.2%20.2%18.7%32.4%38.3%37.2%29.8%
6M Rtn61.4%48.6%33.7%68.3%55.8%86.2%58.6%
12M Rtn61.1%93.5%50.4%113.7%79.7%137.8%86.6%
3Y Rtn155.7%172.3%109.7%44.5%93.6%177.5%132.7%
1M Excs Rtn4.6%7.0%1.6%24.0%5.2%13.8%6.1%
3M Excs Rtn11.4%6.7%2.6%13.5%23.0%20.7%12.4%
6M Excs Rtn59.1%50.9%32.4%90.0%55.1%84.7%57.1%
12M Excs Rtn39.4%72.8%29.8%94.9%58.0%119.9%65.4%
3Y Excs Rtn87.0%91.8%50.6%-24.8%26.7%96.7%68.8%

Comparison Analyses

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Refining & Marketing124,312131,763141,974172,205115,494
Midstream11,53410,99410,50810,5909,619
Renewable Diesel2,8302,1041,664  
Other revenue50   
Intersegment revenues-5,982-5,997-5,767-5,342-5,130
Total132,699138,864148,379177,453119,983


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20252023202220212020
Midstream6,7506,1715,7725,4103,708
Refining & Marketing6,13813,55119,2613,518-5,189
Transaction-related costs-33   -8
Renewable Diesel-110    
Gain on sale of assets-8971981,058  
Net interest and other financial costs-1,276    
Refining & Renewable Diesel planned turnaround costs-1,553-1,201-1,122-582 
Depreciation and amortization-3,251-3,307-3,215-3,364 
Corporate -737-698-587-800
Garyville incident response costs -160  
Idling facility expenses 00-120
Impairments 00-13-9,741
Last In First Out Inventory Charge -145148  
Litigation 027 84
Renewable volume obligation requirements 0238  
Storm impacts 00-70 
Equity method investment restructuring gains    0
Net gain on disposal of assets    66
Restructuring expenses    -367
Total5,76814,51421,4694,300-12,247


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20172016201520142013
Midstream19,93718,51617,4622,4071,947
Refining & Marketing17,53717,60117,37919,75119,573
Corporate and Other6,0102,8702,9252,9714,801
Retail5,5635,4265,3495,2962,064
Total49,04744,41343,11530,42528,385


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$283.30 
Market Cap ($ Bil)83.6 
First Trading Date07/01/2011 
Distance from 52W High0.0% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$255.01$211.12
DMA Trendupup
Distance from DMA11.1%34.2%
 3M1YR
Volatility35.8%32.6%
Downside Capture-135.75-47.88
Upside Capture13.7619.58
Correlation (SPY)-20.3%-0.2%
MPC Betas & Captures as of 6/30/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta-0.10-0.44-0.74-0.40-0.000.65
Up Beta-2.35-2.21-1.75-1.33-0.550.75
Down Beta0.210.200.390.440.741.09
Up Capture59%-3%-20%16%14%20%
Bmk +ve Days11244067140429
Stock +ve Days11203267139414
Down Capture25%-33%-98%-139%-65%46%
Bmk -ve Days10172358112321
Stock -ve Days10213157112335

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with MPC
MPC60.8%32.6%1.49-
Sector ETF (XLE)26.9%20.8%1.0469.9%
Equity (SPY)22.3%12.5%1.33-0.4%
Gold (GLD)24.4%27.8%0.773.9%
Commodities (DBC)23.6%18.7%1.0052.0%
Real Estate (VNQ)13.2%13.9%0.652.2%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-42.8%42.8%-1.188.9%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with MPC
MPC39.5%33.1%1.06-
Sector ETF (XLE)19.4%25.9%0.6777.7%
Equity (SPY)13.4%17.1%0.6137.2%
Gold (GLD)18.0%18.3%0.806.2%
Commodities (DBC)7.5%19.5%0.2849.6%
Real Estate (VNQ)2.9%18.9%0.0626.0%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)12.3%53.5%0.4214.4%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with MPC
MPC26.8%40.1%0.73-
Sector ETF (XLE)9.4%29.5%0.3677.7%
Equity (SPY)15.8%17.9%0.7552.0%
Gold (GLD)11.7%16.1%0.593.0%
Commodities (DBC)6.1%18.0%0.2745.4%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.2%20.7%0.2243.7%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)58.0%66.2%0.9812.9%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date6152026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity7.7 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 531202621.6%
Average Daily Volume2.3 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.3 days
Basic Shares Quantity295.0 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares2.6%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 6/8/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
5/5/20263.2%-0.0%6.2%
2/3/20266.0%15.5%25.4%
11/4/2025-6.1%0.3%-2.4%
8/5/20250.6%-5.6%7.2%
5/6/20250.9%10.3%10.1%
2/4/20256.7%4.6%-7.6%
11/5/20243.2%7.7%4.4%
8/6/20245.5%8.8%6.5%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive181718
# Negative676
Median Positive3.8%5.2%7.5%
Median Negative-4.2%-5.6%-8.1%
Max Positive6.7%15.5%35.7%
Max Negative-9.4%-11.2%-13.7%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
5/5/20263.2%-0.0%6.2%
2/3/20266.0%15.5%25.4%
11/4/2025-6.1%0.3%-2.4%
8/5/20250.6%-5.6%7.2%
5/6/20250.9%10.3%10.1%
2/4/20256.7%4.6%-7.6%
11/5/20243.2%7.7%4.4%
8/6/20245.5%8.8%6.5%
4/30/2024-9.4%-8.8%-13.6%
1/30/20246.1%6.9%4.9%
10/31/20233.0%2.1%0.9%
8/1/20231.4%5.2%8.3%
5/2/2023-4.5%-11.2%-13.7%
1/31/2023-0.5%-9.9%0.6%
11/1/20224.9%5.2%7.9%
8/2/20223.7%0.1%13.1%
5/3/20224.0%2.0%17.3%
2/2/20226.1%7.1%5.3%
11/2/2021-3.9%-2.4%-8.6%
8/4/2021-2.8%4.5%3.4%
5/4/20210.2%4.6%11.2%
2/2/20213.9%13.9%30.5%
11/2/20206.1%7.1%35.7%
8/3/20201.0%-4.0%-5.8%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive181718
# Negative676
Median Positive3.8%5.2%7.5%
Median Negative-4.2%-5.6%-8.1%
Max Positive6.7%15.5%35.7%
Max Negative-9.4%-11.2%-13.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
03/31/202605/05/202610-Q
12/31/202502/26/202610-K
09/30/202511/04/202510-Q
06/30/202508/05/202510-Q
03/31/202505/06/202510-Q
12/31/202402/27/202510-K
09/30/202411/05/202410-Q
06/30/202408/06/202410-Q
03/31/202404/30/202410-Q
12/31/202302/28/202410-K
09/30/202310/31/202310-Q
06/30/202308/01/202310-Q
03/31/202305/02/202310-Q
12/31/202202/23/202310-K
09/30/202211/01/202210-Q
06/30/202208/02/202210-Q
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
03/31/202605/05/202610-Q
12/31/202502/26/202610-K
09/30/202511/04/202510-Q
06/30/202508/05/202510-Q
03/31/202505/06/202510-Q
12/31/202402/27/202510-K
09/30/202411/05/202410-Q
06/30/202408/06/202410-Q
03/31/202404/30/202410-Q
12/31/202302/28/202410-K
09/30/202310/31/202310-Q
06/30/202308/01/202310-Q
03/31/202305/02/202310-Q
12/31/202202/23/202310-K
09/30/202211/01/202210-Q
06/30/202208/02/202210-Q
03/31/202205/03/202210-Q
12/31/202102/24/202210-K
09/30/202111/02/202110-Q
06/30/202108/04/202110-Q
03/31/202105/06/202110-Q
12/31/202002/26/202110-K
09/30/202011/06/202010-Q
06/30/202008/03/202010-Q
03/31/202005/07/202010-Q
12/31/201902/28/202010-K
09/30/201911/04/201910-Q
06/30/201908/05/201910-Q

Recent Forward Guidance

Updated 7/8/2026

Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/5/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q2 2026 Refining operating costs per barrel 5.65 -3.4% Lower NewActual: 5.85 for Q1 2026
Q2 2026 Distribution costs 1.62 Bil 0 Same NewActual: 1.62 Bil for Q1 2026
Q2 2026 Refining planned turnaround costs 300.00 Mil -35.5% Lower NewActual: 465.00 Mil for Q1 2026
2026 Capital Expenditures 1.50 Bil 0 AffirmedGuidance: 1.50 Bil for 2026
2026 MPLX organic growth capital plan 2.4E11% -11.1% LoweredGuidance: 2.7E11% for 2026

Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/3/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q1 2026 Refining operating costs per barrel 5.85  5.0%Higher NewActual: 5.8 for Q4 2025
Q1 2026 Distribution costs 1.62 Bil 3.2% Higher NewActual: 1.57 Bil for Q4 2025
Q1 2026 Refining planned turnaround costs 465.00 Mil 10.7% Higher NewActual: 420.00 Mil for Q4 2025
Q1 2026 Depreciation and amortization 385.00 Mil -3.8% Lower NewActual: 400.00 Mil for Q4 2025
Q1 2026 Total Refinery throughputs 2.74 Mil -5.7% Lower NewActual: 2.90 Mil for Q4 2025
2026 Capital Expenditures 1.50 Bil    
2026 MPLX Capital Expenditures 2.70 Bil    

Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/4/2025

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q4 2025 Refining operating costs per barrel 5.8 1.8% Higher NewGuidance: 5.7 for Q3 2025
Q4 2025 Distribution costs 1.57 Bil 3.3% Higher NewGuidance: 1.52 Bil for Q3 2025
Q4 2025 Refining planned turnaround costs 420.00 Mil 5.0% Higher NewGuidance: 400.00 Mil for Q3 2025
Q4 2025 Depreciation and amortization 400.00 Mil -3.6% Lower NewGuidance: 415.00 Mil for Q3 2025
Q4 2025 Crude oil refined 2.67 Mil    
Q4 2025 Other charge and blendstocks 0.23 Mil    
Q4 2025 Total refinery throughputs 2.90 Mil -1.2% Lower NewGuidance: 2.94 Mil for Q3 2025
Q4 2025 Corporate expenses 240.00 Mil 0.0% Same NewGuidance: 240.00 Mil for Q3 2025

Insider Activity

Updated 6/8/2026
Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Henschen, Michael A IIEx VP, RefiningDirectSell6082026268.826,3361,703,2724,543,133Form
2Hessling, Ricky DChief Commercial OfficerDirectSell5152026250.001,000250,0001,631,250Form
3Hessling, Ricky DChief Commercial OfficerDirectSell3172026228.181,626371,0211,717,054Form
4Hessling, Ricky DChief Commercial OfficerDirectSell3132026229.081,037237,5542,096,294Form
5Hessling, Ricky DChief Commercial OfficerDirectSell3132026224.781,810406,8472,290,034Form
Collapse to Preview
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Henschen, Michael A IIEx VP, RefiningDirectSell6082026268.826,3361,703,2724,543,133Form
2Hessling, Ricky DChief Commercial OfficerDirectSell5152026250.001,000250,0001,631,250Form
3Hessling, Ricky DChief Commercial OfficerDirectSell3172026228.181,626371,0211,717,054Form
4Hessling, Ricky DChief Commercial OfficerDirectSell3132026229.081,037237,5542,096,294Form
5Hessling, Ricky DChief Commercial OfficerDirectSell3132026224.781,810406,8472,290,034Form
6Henschen, Michael A IIEx VP, RefiningDirectSell2132026202.325,2891,070,0703,434,180Form
7Benson, Molly RChief Legal Ofc & Corp SecDirectSell8192025163.0010,8791,773,2774,678,091Form
8Rucker, Kim KW DirectSell7072025175.007,3921,293,6003,315,247Form
Core Cache Last Updated: 7/9/2026