Tearsheet

Mach Natural Resources (MNR)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $12.31 | Market Cap: $1.6 Bil
Sector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

Mach Natural Resources (MNR)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $12.31
Market Cap: $1.6 Bil
Sector: Energy
Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 17%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 13%, FCF Yield is 18%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 67%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 50%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%
 
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies.
 
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 17%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 13%, FCF Yield is 18%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 50%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies.
3 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 67%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

MNR Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for why Mach Natural Resources's stock moved by -13.8% between approximately August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025:

1. Reduced Quarterly Cash Distribution: Mach Natural Resources announced its Q3 2025 earnings on November 6, 2025, reporting an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.44, which beat analyst estimates. However, the company declared a quarterly cash distribution of $0.27 per common unit, a decrease from the $0.38 per common unit distributed in Q2 2025. This reduction in distributions, partly due to a non-recurring $13 million deal charge, likely signaled a less favorable outlook for unitholder returns, negatively impacting investor sentiment.

2. Weakness in the Global Oil Market: Throughout the third quarter of 2025, the global oil market experienced softening prices. This was primarily driven by rising global oil inventories and earlier-than-expected easing of production cuts by OPEC+. Projections from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicated further inventory builds and significant downward pressure on oil prices for the second half of 2025 and into 2026. Global oil demand growth for 2025 was repeatedly downgraded, contributing to a negative environment for oil producers.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MNR Return----30%-20%4%
Peers Return-37%91%57%10%1%-1%109%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MNR Win Rate---0%75%50% 
Peers Win Rate40%68%62%58%50%56% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MNR Max Drawdown-----4%-25% 
Peers Max Drawdown-71%-1%0%-14%-9%-18% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BSM, COP, CNQ, EOG, FANG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

MNR has limited trading history. Below is the Energy sector ETF (XLE) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLES&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-26.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven36.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven116 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-60.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven153.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven660 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-31.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven46.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1201 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-57.8%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven137.1%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1858 days1480 days

Compare to


In The Past

SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -26.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/8/2022. A -26.9% loss requires a 36.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Mach Natural Resources (MNR)

Better Bets than Mach Natural Resources (MNR)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MNR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
8.3%8.3%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
13.3%13.3%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
22.5%22.5%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.4%-0.4%-5.7%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
8.3%8.3%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
13.3%13.3%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
22.5%22.5%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.4%-0.4%-5.7%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Mach Natural Resources

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MNRBSMCOPCNQEOGFANGMedian
NameMach Nat.Black St.ConocoPh.Canadian.EOG Reso.Diamondb. 
Mkt Price--91.8134.13111.51158.38101.66
Mkt Cap1.5-114.371.360.345.760.3
Rev LTM1,02343159,78844,52122,57915,28418,932
Op Inc LTM29327812,5499,0227,5395,5846,562
FCF LTM2922247,0888,1243,891-1,0942,091
FCF 3Y Avg2503718,9108,2845,167-1,9662,769
CFO LTM51233619,93514,77010,1958,7569,476
CFO 3Y Avg51043720,72013,87411,4536,7309,091

Growth & Margins

MNRBSMCOPCNQEOGFANGMedian
NameMach Nat.Black St.ConocoPh.Canadian.EOG Reso.Diamondb. 
Rev Chg LTM6.3%-8.5%8.2%8.3%-5.0%60.1%7.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg--16.4%-6.6%-2.4%-7.6%20.8%-6.6%
Rev Chg Q6.7%1.9%15.3%6.4%-2.3%48.2%6.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.7%0.5%3.4%1.5%-0.6%9.1%1.6%
Op Mgn LTM28.6%64.3%21.0%20.3%33.4%36.5%31.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg37.6%66.2%24.1%21.9%36.4%46.8%37.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-2.8%1.0%-1.0%-4.3%-0.8%-1.3%-1.1%
CFO/Rev LTM50.0%77.9%33.3%33.2%45.2%57.3%47.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg56.5%88.7%35.6%32.8%49.0%62.5%52.8%
FCF/Rev LTM28.5%52.0%11.9%18.2%17.2%-7.2%17.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg27.0%73.9%15.3%19.6%22.1%-18.6%20.9%

Valuation

MNRBSMCOPCNQEOGFANGMedian
NameMach Nat.Black St.ConocoPh.Canadian.EOG Reso.Diamondb. 
Mkt Cap1.5-114.371.360.345.760.3
P/S1.6-2.01.52.72.72.0
P/EBIT9.4-8.17.68.36.98.1
P/E5.7-13.310.011.09.910.0
P/CFO3.3-5.94.55.94.74.7
Total Yield17.5%-10.8%17.1%12.6%12.9%12.9%
Dividend Yield0.0%-3.3%7.1%3.5%2.7%3.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg--6.9%12.0%7.6%-5.2%7.3%
D/E0.7-0.20.30.10.40.3
Net D/E0.7-0.10.30.10.40.3

Returns

MNRBSMCOPCNQEOGFANGMedian
NameMach Nat.Black St.ConocoPh.Canadian.EOG Reso.Diamondb. 
1M Rtn--4.6%6.8%5.6%12.9%6.2%
3M Rtn---2.1%10.7%-6.6%12.1%4.3%
6M Rtn--8.7%13.4%2.5%15.3%11.0%
12M Rtn---10.4%5.1%-12.5%-7.3%-8.9%
3Y Rtn---16.5%31.6%-9.3%23.4%7.1%
1M Excs Rtn--4.7%6.8%5.6%12.9%6.2%
3M Excs Rtn---8.6%4.9%-12.8%6.4%-1.8%
6M Excs Rtn---6.0%-1.4%-12.2%0.5%-3.7%
12M Excs Rtn---25.9%-7.2%-27.0%-21.8%-23.9%
3Y Excs Rtn---90.4%-39.2%-80.6%-47.9%-64.2%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,392,166
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120256.7%
Average Daily Volume440,389
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.16
Basic Shares Quantity126,457,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024313202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241112202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024813202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024513202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023401202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231207202310-Q 9/30/2023
123120229222023S-1 12/31/2022