Mach Natural Resources (MNR)
Market Price (4/28/2026): $13.36 | Market Cap: $2.3 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Mach Natural Resources (MNR)
Market Price (4/28/2026): $13.36Market Cap: $2.3 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.0%, FCF Yield is 11% Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 43%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 27% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -57% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 52% Key risksMNR key risks include [1] recent net losses, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.0%, FCF Yield is 11% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 43%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 27% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -57% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 52% |
| Key risksMNR key risks include [1] recent net losses, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Mach Natural Resources significantly exceeded Q4 2025 earnings estimates.
The company reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.43 for the fourth quarter of 2025, substantially beating the analysts' consensus estimate of $0.26 by $0.17. Quarterly revenue also surpassed expectations, coming in at $387.54 million against an estimated $357.31 million. This strong financial performance was attributed partly to efficient operational metrics, including a lease operating expense of $7.50 per barrel of oil equivalent.
2. The company achieved substantial growth in its proved reserves through strategic acquisitions.
As of December 31, 2025, Mach Natural Resources' total estimated SEC proved reserves more than doubled, increasing by 109% to 705 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMBoe). This significant reserve growth was a direct result of multiple asset purchases totaling $1.3 billion made during 2025, which expanded the company's operational presence into the Permian and San Juan Basins.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MNR | 21.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.2% | 25.5% |
| Sector (XLE) | 27.0% | 47.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MNR | 4.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.0% | 23.2% |
| Sector (XLE) | 28.2% | 48.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MNR | -4.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 28.1% | 41.1% |
| Sector (XLE) | 24.6% | 63.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MNR | ||
| Market (SPY) | 79.8% | 30.5% |
| Sector (XLE) | 50.2% | 47.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MNR Return | - | - | -10% | 30% | -26% | 22% | 5% |
| Peers Return | 152% | 41% | 10% | -9% | -0% | 38% | 387% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 5% | 91% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MNR Win Rate | - | - | 33% | 75% | 50% | 100% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 75% | 58% | 62% | 42% | 56% | 75% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MNR Max Drawdown | - | - | -20% | -4% | -26% | -2% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -2% | -1% | -13% | -18% | -21% | -5% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: CTRA, DVN, PR, FANG, CHRD.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/27/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
MNR has limited trading history. Below is the Energy sector ETF (XLE) in its place.
| Event | XLE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 116 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -60.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 153.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 660 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -31.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,201 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -57.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 137.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,858 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to CTRA, DVN, PR, FANG, CHRD
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -26.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/8/2022. A -26.9% loss requires a 36.7% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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About Mach Natural Resources (MNR)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Mach Natural Resources (MNR):
Mach Natural Resources is like Costco for oil and gas production. They own some of their own midstream infrastructure (like pipelines and processing plants) to control costs and efficiently deliver their product, similar to how Costco manages its supply chain to offer value.
Think of Mach Natural Resources as a real estate investment trust (REIT), but for oil and gas fields. They acquire, develop, and operate productive energy assets with low-decline rates and primarily focus on distributing their cash flow to unitholders, much like a REIT distributes rental income.
Mach Natural Resources operates like the Southwest Airlines of the oil and gas industry. They focus on highly efficient, low-cost operations within a specific region (the Anadarko Basin) to maximize cash generation and distributions to unitholders.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Crude Oil: Extraction and sale of crude oil reserves from the Anadarko Basin.
- Natural Gas: Production and sale of natural gas from its properties.
- Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs): Extraction and sale of natural gas liquids.
- Midstream Services: Operation of gathering systems, processing plants, and water infrastructure, which also generate third-party revenue.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Mach Natural Resources (MNR) is an independent upstream oil and gas company that focuses on the acquisition, development, and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs). As such, it sells these commodities to other companies, not directly to individuals.
The company's major customers are typically a diverse group of entities within the energy sector, including:
- Companies that refine crude oil into various petroleum products.
- Natural gas marketers, utilities, and industrial consumers who purchase natural gas.
- Petrochemical companies and NGL marketers who purchase natural gas liquids.
The provided background information does not name specific customer companies that purchase Mach Natural Resources' oil, natural gas, or NGLs. The company sells its commodities to "premium markets," such as Cushing, Oklahoma for crude oil, which implies a broad range of buyers including refiners, traders, and other large industrial users.
AI Analysis | Feedback
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Tom L. Ward, Chief Executive Officer and Director
Mr. Ward has served as Chief Executive Officer of Mach Natural Resources since its founding in 2017. He is a serial entrepreneur in the energy industry, having co-founded Chesapeake Energy Corporation in 1989, where he served as President, Chief Operating Officer, and a director until 2006. Subsequently, he founded SandRidge Energy Inc. in 2006, leading it as Chairman and Chief Executive Officer until 2013, and also founded Tapstone Energy in 2013, serving as Chairman and Chief Executive Officer until 2017. Mr. Ward graduated from the University of Oklahoma in 1981 with a Bachelor of Business Administration in Petroleum Land Management.
Kevin R. White, Chief Financial Officer
Mr. White has served as Chief Financial Officer of Mach Natural Resources since March 2017. Before joining the company, he held the position of Chief Financial Officer at Petroflow Energy Corporation from June 2016 to March 2017. From January 2008 to September 2013, he was the Senior Vice President of Business Development and Investor Relations at SandRidge Energy. Additionally, Mr. White was the Executive Vice President of Corporate Development and Strategic Planning for Louis Dreyfus Natural Gas Corp. from 1993 until the company's sale in 2001. He earned a Bachelor of Science degree in Accounting in 1979 and a Master of Science degree in Accounting and his Certified Public Accountant qualification in 1980 from Oklahoma State University.
Michael E. Reel, General Counsel and Secretary
Mr. Reel joined Mach Natural Resources in July 2017 and serves as General Counsel and Secretary. His prior experience includes serving as Senior Counsel for Accelerate Resources and as internal counsel for White Star Petroleum, LLC, American Energy Partners, LP, and Chesapeake Energy Corporation. Mr. Reel holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Political Science from Oklahoma State University, obtained in 2008, and a Juris Doctorate from Oklahoma City University School of Law, received in 2011.
Rick Hughes, EVP, Operations
Mr. Hughes brings over 30 years of experience in the oil and gas industry to his role as Executive Vice President of Operations. He previously held a position at SandRidge Energy.
Nasser Riaz, Chief Information Officer
Mr. Riaz has over 27 years of experience in the industry, serving as the Chief Information Officer for Mach Natural Resources.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Key Risks for Mach Natural Resources (MNR)
- Fluctuations in Commodity Prices: Mach Natural Resources' quarterly cash distributions, a key aspect of its business model, are directly influenced by variations in commodity prices (oil, natural gas, and NGLs). Significant fluctuations can lead to reduced or even no cash distributions to unitholders, directly impacting investor returns and the company's financial performance.
- Variations in Business Performance: Beyond commodity price changes, the company's ability to make cash distributions also depends on the overall performance of its business. This encompasses operational efficiency, successful development of existing properties, and the effectiveness of its cost control measures. Any significant variations in these operational aspects could negatively impact cash flow and, consequently, the distributions to unitholders.
AI Analysis | Feedback
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NullAI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Mach Natural Resources (MNR) over the next 2-3 years: 1. **Strategic Acquisitions:** Mach Natural Resources has a stated strategy of pursuing accretive acquisitions of producing properties. This approach has significantly contributed to its growth, with the company completing $1.3 billion in asset purchases in 2025 that nearly doubled its production and expanded its operational footprint into the Permian and San Juan Basins. The company plans to continue executing acquisitions that are accretive to its distributions and purchased at a discount to PDP PV10, with meaningful upside in undrilled locations. 2. **Increased Production from Existing Assets:** The company plans to grow revenue through the disciplined development of its extensive inventory of existing properties. Mach Natural Resources possesses approximately 936,000 net acres with over 2,000 identified horizontal drilling locations in the Anadarko Basin alone. The company's 2026 guidance projects total production to range between 150 MBoe/d to 157 MBoe/d, which reflects ongoing development and optimization efforts. 3. **Expansion of Natural Gas Production:** Mach Natural Resources is strategically shifting its focus towards increasing natural gas drilling, particularly in the Deep Anadarko and San Juan basins. This strategic pivot is expected to drive double-digit gas growth in 2026, with natural gas anticipated to comprise approximately 71% of the company's 2026 production volumes. 4. **Favorable Commodity Prices, particularly Natural Gas:** As the company increases its natural gas production and exposure, favorable natural gas prices will directly impact revenue growth. Approximately 50% of the company's natural gas volumes are unhedged, positioning Mach Natural Resources to benefit from potential strength in natural gas prices. The company's revenue is sensitive to fluctuations in commodity prices, making sustained or increasing natural gas prices a key driver.AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Issuance
- Mach Natural Resources LP announced a secondary public offering of 9,000,000 common units by selling unitholders at a price of $13.05 per common unit, with the company not receiving any proceeds from this offering, which closed on April 8, 2026.
- The selling unitholders granted the underwriters a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 1,350,000 common units.
- Tom L. Ward, CEO of Mach Natural Resources, and affiliated entities, purchased 153,256 common units in the April 2026 offering at the public offering price of $13.05 per unit.
Inbound Investments
- Kayne Anderson Capital Advisors, L.P. reported beneficial ownership of 15,517,713 common units of Mach Natural Resources LP, representing 9.23% of the class.
Outbound Investments
- In 2025, Mach Natural Resources acquired the IKAV Companies for approximately $759.6 million, paid with $349.8 million in cash and 30.6 million common units valued at around $409.9 million.
- Mach Natural Resources also acquired the Sabinal Assets for approximately $448.0 million in 2025, which included $194.1 million in cash and 19.0 million common units valued at about $253.9 million.
- These acquisitions expanded Mach's operations to include the Permian Basin and San Juan Basin.
Capital Expenditures
- Mach Natural Resources incurred total development costs of $252 million in 2025, reflecting a reinvestment rate of 47% of operating cash flow.
- For 2026, the company plans to invest between $315 million and $360 million in total capital for development, maintaining its target reinvestment rate of no more than 50% of operating cash flow.
- In the fourth quarter of 2025, total development costs were $77 million, with $68 million allocated to upstream capital and $9 million to other capital, including midstream and land.
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to MNR.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03312026 | KGS | Kodiak Gas Services | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03312026 | KOS | Kosmos Energy | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 12262025 | TPL | Texas Pacific Land | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 65.2% | 65.2% | -2.1% |
| 12122025 | NOV | NOV | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.3% | 15.3% | -6.5% |
| 12122025 | RIG | Transocean | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 60.5% | 60.5% | -7.0% |
| 06302025 | MNR | Mach Natural Resources | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -19.7% | -2.3% | -21.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 48.20 |
| Mkt Cap | 20.5 |
| Rev LTM | 6,355 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,154 |
| FCF LTM | 625 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 632 |
| CFO LTM | 3,814 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,285 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 14.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 11.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | -8.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -2.0% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 2.0% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -7.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 30.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 33.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 47.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 54.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 15.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 20.5 |
| P/S | 2.4 |
| P/Op Inc | 9.4 |
| P/EBIT | 10.2 |
| P/E | 15.7 |
| P/CFO | 4.4 |
| Total Yield | 9.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.5% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -5.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 27.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 46.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 47.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 44.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -15.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 23.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 38.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 17.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -28.6% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $12.89 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 2.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 10/25/2023 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -9.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $11.40 | $12.22 |
| DMA Trend | down | up |
| Distance from DMA | 13.1% | 5.5% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 38.4% | 27.3% |
| Downside Capture | -46.79 | 15.11 |
| Upside Capture | 219.17 | 18.71 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 16.2% | 15.0% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | � | 0.42 | 0.37 | 0.39 | 0.60 | 0.07 |
| Up Beta | � | -0.16 | 0.04 | -0.04 | 0.42 | 0.07 |
| Down Beta | � | 1.05 | 0.89 | 0.81 | 1.20 | -0.07 |
| Up Capture | 0% | 90% | 76% | 35% | 20% | 9% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 8 | 17 | 28 | 66 | 140 | 425 |
| Stock +ve Days | 0 | 11 | 21 | 50 | 110 | 291 |
| Down Capture | -0% | -8% | -26% | 34% | 49% | 59% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 14 | 25 | 35 | 60 | 112 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 0 | 8 | 19 | 53 | 116 | 286 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MNR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MNR | 7.0% | 27.1% | 0.28 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 41.2% | 19.6% | 1.64 | 52.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 31.2% | 12.5% | 1.91 | 17.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 39.7% | 27.2% | 1.21 | 9.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 45.1% | 18.1% | 1.93 | 44.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.1% | 13.4% | 0.67 | 16.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -17.7% | 42.1% | -0.35 | 23.3% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MNR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MNR | 0.9% | 28.6% | 0.06 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 23.6% | 26.1% | 0.81 | 47.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.9% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 30.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.9% | 17.8% | 0.96 | 10.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 14.5% | 19.1% | 0.62 | 36.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.4% | 18.8% | 0.08 | 19.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 6.5% | 56.3% | 0.33 | 13.0% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MNR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MNR | 0.5% | 28.6% | 0.06 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 10.1% | 29.5% | 0.38 | 47.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.8% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 30.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.8% | 15.9% | 0.72 | 10.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.0% | 17.8% | 0.47 | 36.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.3% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 19.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 68.2% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 13.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/6/2025 | -3.9% | 1.1% | 1.6% |
| 8/7/2025 | -2.2% | -2.1% | -4.2% |
| 5/8/2025 | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.4% |
| 2/5/2025 | -7.9% | -7.4% | -15.8% |
| 11/12/2024 | 0.4% | 0.4% | -2.1% |
| 8/13/2024 | 3.6% | 9.0% | -7.8% |
| 4/1/2024 | 0.0% | 1.2% | 8.7% |
| 12/7/2023 | -1.6% | -3.6% | -5.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| # Negative | 4 | 3 | 5 |
| Median Positive | 2.0% | 1.2% | 5.4% |
| Median Negative | -3.0% | -3.6% | -5.7% |
| Max Positive | 3.7% | 9.0% | 8.7% |
| Max Negative | -7.9% | -7.4% | -15.8% |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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