Mach Natural Resources (MNR)
Market Price (1/15/2026): $10.955 | Market Cap: $1.4 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Mach Natural Resources (MNR)
Market Price (1/15/2026): $10.955Market Cap: $1.4 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 17%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 13%, FCF Yield is 18% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -42% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 67% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 50%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29% | Key risksMNR key risks include [1] recent net losses, Show more. | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 30% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 17%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 13%, FCF Yield is 18% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 50%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 30% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -42% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 67% |
| Key risksMNR key risks include [1] recent net losses, Show more. |
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
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However, based on the most recent available information for Mach Natural Resources (MNR) up to January 15, 2026, the stock has experienced recent fluctuations. For instance, on January 9, 2026, MNR's stock price saw a change of -1.99%. On January 15, 2026, the stock was trading around $10.94. Over the past year, MNR has delivered a -35.15% change, with a 52-week range between $10.79 and $19.00.
Recent news and analyst sentiments suggest the following:
1. Analyst Ratings and Price Targets: Mach Natural Resources has a consensus rating of "Strong Buy" from several analysts, with an average 12-month price target of approximately $19.17 to $21.27, suggesting significant upside potential from its current price. However, some analysts have recently lowered their price targets, for example, Stifel reduced its target to $18.00 from $22.00 on January 6, 2026.
2. Q3 2025 Financial Results and Outlook: Mach Natural Resources LP reported its third-quarter 2025 results around November 6, 2025, with mixed outcomes; earnings per share fell short of expectations while revenue exceeded forecasts. The company declared a quarterly cash distribution of $0.27 per common unit and provided an updated 2026 outlook, including an 8-18% reduction in expected capital expenditure and a pivot to 100% gas-focused drilling.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 1/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MNR | 2.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.2% | 12.4% |
| Sector (XLE) | 9.1% | 20.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 1/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MNR | -16.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.5% | 28.4% |
| Sector (XLE) | 11.2% | 49.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
1/31/2025 to 1/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MNR | -22.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.7% | 47.1% |
| Sector (XLE) | 12.4% | 66.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
1/31/2023 to 1/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MNR | ||
| Market (SPY) | 76.2% | 32.6% |
| Sector (XLE) | 17.3% | 46.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MNR Return | - | - | -10% | 30% | -20% | - | -6% |
| Peers Return | 181% | 44% | 18% | -5% | 0% | -0% | 352% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 2% | 85% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MNR Win Rate | - | - | 33% | 75% | 55% | - | |
| Peers Win Rate | 73% | 58% | 60% | 40% | 55% | 80% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 100% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MNR Max Drawdown | - | - | -20% | -4% | -25% | - | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -2% | -3% | -12% | -16% | -22% | -5% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | 0% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: CTRA, DVN, PR, FANG, CHRD.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 1/14/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
MNR has limited trading history. Below is the Energy sector ETF (XLE) in its place.
| Event | XLE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 116 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -60.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 153.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 660 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -31.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,201 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -57.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 137.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,858 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to CTRA, DVN, PR, FANG, CHRD
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -26.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/8/2022. A -26.9% loss requires a 36.7% gain to breakeven.
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AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Pioneer Natural Resources for the Anadarko Basin.
2. An independent oil and gas producer, similar to a regional EOG Resources, but solely focused on Oklahoma's Anadarko Basin.
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- Crude Oil: Mach Natural Resources extracts and produces unrefined petroleum, a fossil fuel used to produce gasoline, diesel, and other petroleum products.
- Natural Gas: The company explores for and produces natural gas, primarily methane, used for heating, electricity generation, and industrial applications.
- Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs): Mach Natural Resources also extracts natural gas liquids like ethane, propane, and butane, which are valuable byproducts of natural gas production used as feedstocks and fuels.
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Mach Natural Resources (MNR) is an independent oil and natural gas exploration and production company. As such, it sells raw commodities (crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids) into the market and does not sell directly to individuals.
MNR's major customers are other companies involved in the energy value chain. While specific customer names are not publicly disclosed by MNR in its SEC filings (as is common for commodity producers who sell into a diversified market, often through pipelines and processing facilities), the categories of companies that purchase their products typically include:
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Midstream Companies: These companies own and operate pipelines, natural gas processing plants, and crude oil terminals. They purchase raw natural gas and crude oil from producers like MNR for transportation, processing, and storage. While MNR does not disclose specific direct customers, examples of public midstream companies that operate in the broader energy market include:
- Energy Transfer LP (ET)
- Kinder Morgan, Inc. (KMI)
- Williams Companies, Inc. (WMB)
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Refiners: Companies that purchase crude oil to process it into refined petroleum products such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. Examples of major public refiners or integrated energy companies (not confirmed direct customers of MNR) include:
- Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)
- Chevron Corporation (CVX)
- Phillips 66 (PSX)
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Natural Gas Marketers and Utilities: Companies that purchase natural gas, often from midstream operators, to sell to industrial users, power generation plants, or local distribution companies (utilities) that serve residential and commercial customers. Examples of public companies active in gas marketing or utility operations (not confirmed direct customers of MNR) include:
- BP plc (BP)
- Shell plc (SHEL)
- ConocoPhillips (COP)
It is important to note that the companies listed above are provided as examples of the types of purchasers in the energy market and are not confirmed direct customers of Mach Natural Resources, as such specific customer details are not publicly disclosed by the company.
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Tom L. Ward, Chief Executive Officer and Director
Mr. Ward has served as Mach Natural Resources' Chief Executive Officer since its founding in 2017. Prior to Mach, he served as Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Tapstone Energy from 2013 to 2017, and SandRidge Energy (NYSE: SD) from 2006 to 2013. He also co-founded Chesapeake Energy Corporation (NYSE: CHK) in 1989, where he served as President, Chief Operating Officer, and a director until February 2006. Mr. Ward brings over 40 years of industry experience and co-founded Mach Natural Resources in 2017.
Kevin R. White, Chief Financial Officer and Principal Accounting Officer
Mr. White has served as Mach Natural Resources' Chief Financial Officer since March 2017. He previously held the position of Chief Financial Officer at Petroflow Energy Corporation from June 2016 to March 2017. From 2008 to 2013, he was SVP — Business Development and Investor Relations for SandRidge Energy. Notably, Mr. White served as Executive Vice President of Corporate Development and Strategic Planning for Louis Dreyfus Natural Gas Corp. from 1993 until the company's sale in 2001. He has over 40 years of experience.
Michael E. Reel, General Counsel and Secretary
Mr. Reel joined Mach Natural Resources in July 2017 as General Counsel and Secretary. His prior experience includes serving as Senior Counsel for Accelerate Resources and as internal counsel for White Star Petroleum, LLC, American Energy Partners, LP, and Chesapeake Energy Corporation. Mr. Reel has over 13 years of experience.
Rick Hughes, EVP, Operations
Mr. Hughes serves as the Executive Vice President of Operations for Mach Natural Resources, bringing over 30 years of experience to the role.
Kent Benson, SVP, Finance & Investor Relations
Mr. Benson has served as SVP of Finance & Investor Relations at Mach Resources since January 2017, having previously held roles as VP of Finance & Investor Relations and Director of Finance within the company. Before joining Mach, he was the Chief Financial Officer at WCT Resources LLC from January 2014 to February 2018. He also worked as a Financial Analyst at SandRidge Energy from May 2007 to January 2014. Mr. Benson has over 18 years of experience.
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The key risks to Mach Natural Resources (MNR) primarily revolve around the inherent volatility of the oil and gas industry and the evolving regulatory landscape.- Commodity Price Volatility: The financial performance of Mach Natural Resources is significantly impacted by fluctuations in the prices of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs). The company's reliance on the sale of these commodities makes it vulnerable to market volatility, which can lead to unpredictable revenue streams and challenges in financial planning. A sustained decline in prices could adversely affect its business, financial condition, and ability to meet financial commitments.
- Regulatory and Environmental Risks: Mach Natural Resources operates in a highly regulated industry. Changes in government policies and stricter environmental regulations can directly impact its operations, operational flexibility, and cost structure. The broader industry shift towards renewable energy sources and increased environmental scrutiny also poses long-term threats to the company's traditional business model.
- Financial Performance and Asset Impairment: Recent financial reports indicate concerns such as net losses and impairment of oil and gas properties. These impairments suggest a reduction in the value of the company's assets, potentially due to factors like declining reserves or lower commodity prices. Additionally, rising operating expenses can lead to cost management challenges, affecting profitability and investor confidence.
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Mach Natural Resources (MNR) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through a strategic pivot to natural gas production, disciplined acquisitions, and enhanced capital efficiency. Here are the expected drivers of future revenue growth:- Shift to Natural Gas Production: Mach Natural Resources is strategically increasing its focus on natural gas. The company projects natural gas volumes to exceed 70% of its production mix by the end of 2026, and anticipates natural gas constituting at least 50% of its revenue stream starting in 2026. This shift is driven by a focus on dry gas projects in the Deep Anadarko and San Juan basins, with new wells exhibiting strong initial production rates. The company expects increasing natural gas output by over 20% in 2026.
- Disciplined Acquisitions: Mach Natural Resources has a proven acquisition strategy, having executed 16 acquisitions for approximately $960 million between January 2018 and September 2023. Recent "transformative" acquisitions, such as the IKAV and Sabinal deals, have expanded the company's operational basins and are projected to significantly grow cash distributions over five years, with an 8% accretion to cash available for distribution in year one, rising to 28% by year five. The company continues to pursue opportunistic acquisitions under $150 million, specifically targeting assets available at discounts to PDP PV-10.
- Optimized Drilling and Capital Efficiency: The company is focused on improving its drilling operations and capital efficiency. In 2026, Mach Natural Resources announced an 8% reduction in capital expenditure while maintaining production guidance, reflecting improved capital efficiency. They are achieving faster spud-to-total depth times and reduced costs per completed foot in their drilling programs, such as in the Oswego and Woodford formations. This operational efficiency, coupled with a low production decline rate of 15%, allows for sustained production levels with a reinvestment rate of less than 50%, thereby maximizing cash available for distribution and future growth.
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Share Repurchases
Mach Natural Resources has not reported significant share repurchases over the last 3-5 years. Instead, the company's number of outstanding shares has increased.
Share Issuance
- In the third quarter of 2024, Mach Natural Resources completed a public offering that generated net proceeds of $129 million, including the exercise of an over-allotment option. These funds were primarily utilized to finance various acquisitions.
- A further public offering was completed in the fourth quarter of 2024, yielding gross proceeds of $230 million, which also included the fully exercised over-allotment option.
- In October 2025, Mach Natural Resources filed for a mixed shelf offering of up to $250 million, indicating potential future capital raising or securities issuance to enhance financial flexibility.
Inbound Investments
Mach Natural Resources has not disclosed large, strategic inbound investments from third-parties like strategic partners or private equity firms in the last 3-5 years. While public offerings represent investments in the company, these are not typically categorized as "inbound investments" from specific strategic partners or private equity firms. BCE-Mach Aggregator holds a significant 87% ownership stake in the company.
Outbound Investments
- Mach Natural Resources is committed to accretive acquisitions, focusing on assets purchased at a discount to PDP PV-10 (present value of proved developed producing reserves discounted at 10%).
- During the year ended December 31, 2024, the company spent approximately $123.1 million on acquisitions.
- In Q4 2024, Mach successfully integrated two acquisitions of oil and gas assets in the Anadarko Basin (Kansas and Oklahoma) and the Ardmore Basin (Oklahoma), and completed a bolt-on acquisition for roughly $30 million. The IKAV and Sabinal acquisitions were described as "transformational" and are expected to be accretive to cash available for distribution.
Capital Expenditures
- For the full year 2024, Mach Natural Resources incurred total development costs of $239 million, reflecting a reinvestment rate of 47%. Earlier 2024 guidance ranged from $215 million to $275 million, with a focus on upstream drilling, completions, and workovers, as well as midstream and land projects.
- The company's 2025 capital expenditures are projected to be between $260.0 million and $280.0 million, primarily focused on drilling Oswego, Woodford, and Mississippian wells, while maintaining a reinvestment rate of no more than 50% of operating cash flow.
- For 2026, Mach Natural Resources plans to reduce expected capital expenditures by 8% to 18% (ranging from $63 million to an 18% reduction, depending on the source) without impacting production guidance, with a strategic shift towards gas-focused drilling programs, particularly in the Deep Anadarko and Mancos Shale.
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Peer Comparisons for Mach Natural Resources
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 36.84 |
| Mkt Cap | 14.7 |
| Rev LTM | 6,136 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,116 |
| FCF LTM | 781 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 652 |
| CFO LTM | 3,626 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,307 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 18.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 29.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 35.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 51.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 56.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 16.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.9% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exploration and production of oil, natural gas and NGLs (E&P Segment) | 762 | ||
| Gain (loss) on oil and natural gas derivatives, net | -67 | -68 | |
| Midstream revenue | 44 | 32 | |
| Oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGL) sales | 860 | 398 | |
| Product sales | 100 | 31 | |
| Total | 762 | 937 | 392 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exploration and production of oil, natural gas and NGLs (E&P Segment) | 347 | ||
| Total | 347 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exploration and production of oil, natural gas and NGLs (E&P Segment) | 2,305 | ||
| Total | 2,305 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $12.00 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 1.5 | |
| First Trading Date | 10/25/2023 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -24.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $12.28 | $13.09 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | down |
| Distance from DMA | -2.3% | -8.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 27.7% | 29.8% |
| Downside Capture | 39.87 | 66.02 |
| Upside Capture | 49.87 | 29.94 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 16.6% | 46.2% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | � | 0.10 | 0.62 | 0.51 | 0.65 | 0.07 |
| Up Beta | � | -0.45 | 0.55 | 0.32 | 0.50 | -0.07 |
| Down Beta | � | 0.30 | 1.00 | 1.20 | 1.17 | -0.00 |
| Up Capture | 0% | 27% | 21% | 2% | 20% | 6% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 23 | 37 | 72 | 143 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 0 | 9 | 20 | 45 | 110 | 261 |
| Down Capture | -0% | 10% | 68% | 57% | 68% | 59% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 18 | 27 | 55 | 108 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 0 | 5 | 17 | 52 | 110 | 251 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
nullBased On 5-Year Data
nullBased On 10-Year Data
nullSEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q (09/30/2025) |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q (06/30/2025) |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q (03/31/2025) |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/13/2025 | 10-K (12/31/2024) |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/12/2024 | 10-Q (09/30/2024) |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/13/2024 | 10-Q (06/30/2024) |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/13/2024 | 10-Q (03/31/2024) |
| 12/31/2023 | 04/01/2024 | 10-K (12/31/2023) |
| 09/30/2023 | 12/07/2023 | 10-Q (09/30/2023) |
| 06/30/2023 | 09/22/2023 | S-1 (06/30/2023) |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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