Mach Natural Resources (MNR)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $12.31 | Market Cap: $1.6 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Mach Natural Resources (MNR)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $12.31Market Cap: $1.6 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 17%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 13%, FCF Yield is 18% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 67% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 50%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 17%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 13%, FCF Yield is 18% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 50%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies. |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 67% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MNR Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for why Mach Natural Resources's stock moved by -13.8% between approximately August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025:
1. Reduced Quarterly Cash Distribution: Mach Natural Resources announced its Q3 2025 earnings on November 6, 2025, reporting an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.44, which beat analyst estimates. However, the company declared a quarterly cash distribution of $0.27 per common unit, a decrease from the $0.38 per common unit distributed in Q2 2025. This reduction in distributions, partly due to a non-recurring $13 million deal charge, likely signaled a less favorable outlook for unitholder returns, negatively impacting investor sentiment.
2. Weakness in the Global Oil Market: Throughout the third quarter of 2025, the global oil market experienced softening prices. This was primarily driven by rising global oil inventories and earlier-than-expected easing of production cuts by OPEC+. Projections from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicated further inventory builds and significant downward pressure on oil prices for the second half of 2025 and into 2026. Global oil demand growth for 2025 was repeatedly downgraded, contributing to a negative environment for oil producers.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MNR Return | - | - | - | - | 30% | -20% | 4% |
| Peers Return | -37% | 91% | 57% | 10% | 1% | -1% | 109% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MNR Win Rate | - | - | - | 0% | 75% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 40% | 68% | 62% | 58% | 50% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MNR Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | -4% | -25% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -71% | -1% | 0% | -14% | -9% | -18% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BSM, COP, CNQ, EOG, FANG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
MNR has limited trading history. Below is the Energy sector ETF (XLE) in its place.
| Event | XLE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 116 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -60.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 153.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 660 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -31.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1201 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -57.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 137.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1858 days | 1480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -26.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/8/2022. A -26.9% loss requires a 36.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MNR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.3% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.5% | 22.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.4% | -0.4% | -5.7% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.3% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.5% | 22.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.4% | -0.4% | -5.7% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Mach Natural Resources
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 101.66 |
| Mkt Cap | 60.3 |
| Rev LTM | 18,932 |
| Op Inc LTM | 6,562 |
| FCF LTM | 2,091 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,769 |
| CFO LTM | 9,476 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 9,091 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -6.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 31.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 37.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 47.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 52.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 17.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 60.3 |
| P/S | 2.0 |
| P/EBIT | 8.1 |
| P/E | 10.0 |
| P/CFO | 4.7 |
| Total Yield | 12.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.3% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 6.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 4.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 11.0% |
| 12M Rtn | -8.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 7.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 6.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -1.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -3.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -23.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -64.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3132025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8132024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5132024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 4012024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 12072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 12312022 | 9222023 | S-1 12/31/2022 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |