MediciNova (MNOV)
Market Price (11/6/2026): $1.45 | Market Cap: $71.4 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
MediciNova (MNOV)
Market Price (11/6/2026): $1.45Market Cap: $71.4 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -35% Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 584% Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -31% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -48%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -107% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -12 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1287% Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 100% Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -990%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -991% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -19% Key risksMNOV key risks include its critical dependence on the successful outcomes of its lead product candidates, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -35% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 584% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -31% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -48%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -107% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -12 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1287% |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 100% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -990%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -991% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -19% |
| Key risksMNOV key risks include its critical dependence on the successful outcomes of its lead product candidates, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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MediciNova (MNOV) stock has gained about 10% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. MediciNova reported strong fiscal Q2 2026 earnings, significantly surpassing analyst expectations. The company announced Q2 2026 earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.05, exceeding the consensus estimate of -$0.06 by 16.67%. Additionally, MediciNova reported revenue of $0.46 million, which was a substantial 606.15% surprise compared to the consensus estimate of $0.07 million. This positive financial performance was reported on August 13, 2026, early in the specified period, contributing to investor confidence.
2. The company achieved a significant milestone in its lead Phase 2b/3 COMBAT-ALS clinical trial for MN-166 (ibudilast). On September 24, 2026, MediciNova announced the completion of the last patient, last visit in the double-blind portion of the COMBAT-ALS trial, evaluating MN-166 for Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS). This development was highlighted as a major near-term catalyst, with topline results from this portion of the study anticipated by the end of 2026, moving the program closer to potential regulatory submission. The stock experienced a surge following this announcement.
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MediciNova (MNOV) stock has gained about 10% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. MediciNova reported strong fiscal Q2 2026 earnings, significantly surpassing analyst expectations. The company announced Q2 2026 earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.05, exceeding the consensus estimate of -$0.06 by 16.67%. Additionally, MediciNova reported revenue of $0.46 million, which was a substantial 606.15% surprise compared to the consensus estimate of $0.07 million. This positive financial performance was reported on August 13, 2026, early in the specified period, contributing to investor confidence.
2. The company achieved a significant milestone in its lead Phase 2b/3 COMBAT-ALS clinical trial for MN-166 (ibudilast). On September 24, 2026, MediciNova announced the completion of the last patient, last visit in the double-blind portion of the COMBAT-ALS trial, evaluating MN-166 for Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS). This development was highlighted as a major near-term catalyst, with topline results from this portion of the study anticipated by the end of 2026, moving the program closer to potential regulatory submission. The stock experienced a surge following this announcement.
3. Analyst sentiment remained largely positive, with new coverage and reiterated "Buy" ratings and high price targets. During the period, several analysts expressed optimism for MediciNova's prospects. Roth Capital initiated coverage with a "Buy" rating and a $6.00 price target on September 17, 2026. H.C. Wainwright reiterated a "Buy" rating with a $10.00 price target on September 28, 2026, and Maxim Group also reiterated a "Buy" with a $6.00 target on September 30, 2026. The average 12-month price target from analysts covering the stock stood at $7.75, implying significant potential upside.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 9.0% change in MNOV stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 54.3% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 11052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1.33 | 1.45 | 9.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1 | 1 | 54.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 109.7 | 77.5 | -29.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 49 | 49 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 9.0% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 11/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MNOV | 9.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | -1.9% | 14.6% |
| Sector (XLV) | 13.8% | 5.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 4.3% change in MNOV stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 124.7% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 11052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1.39 | 1.45 | 4.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0 | 1 | 124.7% |
| P/S Multiple | 166.7 | 77.5 | -53.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 49 | 49 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 4.3% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 11/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MNOV | 4.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.3% | 12.9% |
| Sector (XLV) | 27.2% | 5.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -12.7% change in MNOV stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/5/2026 was primarily driven by a -87.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 11052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1.66 | 1.45 | -12.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0 | 1 | 583.9% |
| P/S Multiple | 604.9 | 77.5 | -87.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 49 | 49 | -0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -12.7% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 11/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MNOV | -12.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.4% | 11.5% |
| Sector (XLV) | 29.8% | 7.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -24.1% change in MNOV stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/5/2026 was primarily driven by a null change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312023 | 11052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1.91 | 1.45 | -24.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0 | 1 | 9.2233720368547763E17% |
| P/S Multiple | ∞ | 77.5 | |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 49 | 49 | -0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 11/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MNOV | -24.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 81.3% | 10.6% |
| Sector (XLV) | 55.5% | 7.4% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MNOV Return | -49% | -24% | -27% | 40% | -38% | 11% | -72% |
| Peers Return | -34% | 88% | 6% | 8% | 81% | 8% | 176% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 105% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MNOV Win Rate | 25% | 33% | 42% | 58% | 25% | 55% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 40% | 50% | 38% | 52% | 55% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 45% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MNOV Max Drawdown | -70% | -37% | -47% | -32% | -45% | -61% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -52% | -45% | -53% | -51% | -37% | -40% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: IONS, DNLI, MDGL, VKTX, AMLX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/5/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MNOV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -39.1% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 64.2% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 526 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -18.1% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.1% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 20 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -33.1% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.4% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 355 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -16.3% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.5% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 91 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -28.4% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1436 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -49.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 98.6% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 17 days | 140 days |
In The Past
MediciNova's stock fell -39.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 64.2% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | MNOV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -39.1% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 64.2% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 526 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -33.1% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.4% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 355 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -28.4% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1436 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -49.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 98.6% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 17 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -38.8% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.5% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 135 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -35.5% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.0% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 275 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -22.7% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.4% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 97 days | 62 days |
| 2013 Taper Tantrum | ||
| % Loss | -52.3% | -0.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 109.8% | 0.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 182 days | 1 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -29.3% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.4% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 158 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -30.4% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.7% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2065 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -68.8% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 220.3% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 172 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -24.5% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.4% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 33 days | 47 days |
In The Past
MediciNova's stock fell -39.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 64.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About MediciNova (MNOV)
MediciNova, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company focused on developing novel small molecule therapeutics for serious diseases with significant unmet medical needs in the United States. The company operates by advancing a pipeline of investigational drug candidates aimed at providing new treatment options for patients.
The core of MediciNova's business involves its product pipeline, led by MN-166 (ibudilast), an oral anti-inflammatory and neuroprotective agent. This compound is under development for a variety of neurological disorders, including primary and secondary progressive multiple sclerosis, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), chemotherapy-induced peripheral neuropathy, and glioblastoma, in addition to substance dependence. Other key drug candidates include MN-221 (bedoradrine) for acute exacerbations of asthma, MN-001 (tipelukast) for fibrotic diseases such as nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), and MN-029 (denibulin) for solid tumor cancers. The primary customers or markets MediciNova serves are patients suffering from these challenging neurological, respiratory, fibrotic, and oncological conditions.
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Here are 1-2 brief analogies for MediciNova:
- Like an early-stage Biogen, focused on developing novel treatments for neurological and other serious diseases.
- A developing Amgen, building a pipeline of experimental drugs for diverse challenging conditions.
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- MN-166 (ibudilast): An oral anti-inflammatory and neuroprotective agent for treating neurological disorders and substance dependence and addiction.
- MN-221 (bedoradrine): A selective beta-2-adrenergic receptor agonist for the treatment of acute exacerbations of asthma.
- MN-001 (tipelukast): An orally bioavailable small molecule compound to treat fibrotic diseases, including nonalcoholic steatohepatitis and idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.
- MN-029 (denibulin): A tubulin binding agent for treating solid tumor cancers.
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Major Customers of MediciNova (MNOV)
MediciNova, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company focused on developing novel therapeutics. As such, its primary "customers" are other pharmaceutical companies with whom it enters into collaboration agreements for the development, licensing, and potential commercialization of its drug candidates. Based on the provided background, MediciNova's major partners/potential customers include:
- Kissei Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (Symbol: 4547.T - Tokyo Stock Exchange)
- Kyorin Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd (Symbol: 4564.T - Tokyo Stock Exchange)
- Angiogene Pharmaceuticals Ltd. (Private Company)
- Meiji Seika Kaisha Ltd. (A subsidiary of Meiji Holdings Co Ltd, Symbol: 2269.T - Tokyo Stock Exchange)
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- Kissei Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (TYO: 4547)
- Kyorin Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (TYO: 4564)
- Angiogene Pharmaceuticals Ltd.
- Meiji Seika Kaisha Ltd. (TYO: 2269 for parent Meiji Holdings Co., Ltd.)
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Yuichi Iwaki, M.D., Ph.D. President and Chief Executive Officer, and Founder
Dr. Iwaki co-founded MediciNova in September 2000 and has served as its CEO since March 2006. He holds three professorships at the University of Southern California School of Medicine in the Departments of Urology, Surgery, and Pathology, and has been Director of the Transplantation Immunology and Immunogenetic Laboratory since 1992. Prior to that, he held professorships at the University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine. Dr. Iwaki has advised pharmaceutical companies and venture capital funds on research and investment strategies for over 30 years and is a board member of several biotechnology companies, including Avigen, Inc.
Jason Kruger Chief Financial Officer
Mr. Kruger has served as Chief Financial Officer of MediciNova since June 2022. He is the president and founder of Signature Analytics, an accounting services firm he established in September 2008, which was acquired by Citrin Cooperman Advisors LLC in November 2024. Before founding Signature Analytics, Mr. Kruger was a Senior Manager for Deloitte & Touche LLP from 2003 to 2008 and a Senior Accountant for Moss Adams LLP from 1999 to 2003.
Kazuko Matsuda, M.D., Ph.D, MPH Chief Medical Officer
Dr. Matsuda has served as Chief Medical Officer for MediciNova since 2010, and previously as Vice President of Clinical Development. She is responsible for all clinical development. Prior to joining MediciNova, Dr. Matsuda was a clinical advisor to the company for its MN-221 and MN-166 development programs, and an assistant professor at the University of Southern California, Keck School of Medicine. She is a board-certified pediatrician in both the United States and Japan.
David H. Crean, Ph.D. Chief Business Officer
Dr. Crean has served as Chief Business Officer since May 2021. He is also the President and CEO of Coast BioVentures LLC, an emerging life sciences venture fund, and a managing partner with Cardiff Advisory LLC, a strategic and financial advisory firm focused on mergers, acquisitions, and partnering transactions within the life science and healthcare sectors. Dr. Crean was previously a Managing Director for Objective Capital Partners, LLC, and is a limited partner with Mesa Verde Venture Partners, a leading life sciences venture fund.
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Key Risks to MediciNova (MNOV)
MediciNova, Inc. (MNOV), a biopharmaceutical company focused on developing novel small molecule therapeutics for serious diseases, faces several significant risks inherent in the biotechnology industry. The most prominent risks relate to the unpredictable nature of drug development, the substantial capital required for research and commercialization, and the increasing competition in its target markets.
1. Clinical Trial Failure and Regulatory Approval Risk
The most significant risk to MediciNova's business is the potential for its product candidates to fail in clinical trials or to not receive regulatory approval. Biopharmaceutical development is a lengthy, costly, and uncertain process, where early positive results do not guarantee success in later-stage trials or ultimate approval by regulatory authorities such as the FDA. The company's lead assets, MN-166 (ibudilast) and MN-001 (tipelukast), as well as other candidates like MN-221 and MN-029, are subject to these inherent risks. Delays, suspensions, or terminations of clinical trials can lead to increased costs and significantly hinder or prevent regulatory approval. For example, a Phase 2b study for MN-221 in asthma exacerbations did not statistically meet its primary endpoint, resulting in a substantial drop in the company's stock price.
2. Funding and Capital Raising Risk
Another critical risk for MediciNova is the ongoing need to raise sufficient capital to fund its operations and contribute to the development of its product candidates. Developing novel therapeutics through multiple clinical phases to commercialization requires substantial financial resources. Although MediciNova has utilized a lean funding strategy involving grants and partnerships and reported a cash position in November 2025 that suggests it can sustain programs without near-term financing, the extensive and often unpredictable costs associated with drug development mean that the company may need to secure significant additional capital in the future. The ability to obtain such funding is crucial for the continued advancement of its pipeline.
3. Dependence on Lead Candidates and Market Competition
MediciNova's business prospects are highly dependent on the successful development and eventual commercialization of its lead product candidates, particularly MN-166 and MN-001. MN-166 is currently in Phase 3 for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) and degenerative cervical myelopathy (DCM), and is Phase 3-ready for progressive multiple sclerosis (MS). The failure of these key programs would have a severe adverse impact on the company. Furthermore, while MediciNova targets diseases with unmet medical needs, the market for such conditions can be highly competitive. The landscape for drug development in areas like ALS, for instance, is seeing accelerated activity, with a surge in early-stage clinical trials. This increasing competition from other pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies could affect the commercial viability and market share of MediciNova's products, even if approved.
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MediciNova (MNOV) is developing several product candidates for various diseases. The addressable markets for their main products or services are as follows:
MN-166 (ibudilast)
- Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS): The addressable market for ALS treatment in the U.S. is US$987.6 million. Approximately 20,000 ALS patients are in the U.S., with around 5,000 new diagnoses annually.
MN-001 (tipelukast)
- Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF): The global Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis market size is expected to reach $4.7 billion by 2027. In 2023, the total market size of Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis in the 7MM (United States, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, UK, and Japan) was approximately USD 3,300 million. The global Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis market generated US$2,970.69 million in 2025 and is estimated to reach US$6,736.49 million by 2035, growing at a CAGR of 9.4% from 2026-2035. In the U.S., IPF affects an estimated 128,000 individuals, with approximately 48,000 new cases diagnosed each year.
- Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH): NASH prevalence in the U.S. is 2-5%, with an additional 10-20% of Americans having "fatty liver."
MN-221 (bedoradrine)
The license agreement for MN-221 was terminated in October 2022, and therefore, it is no longer actively developed by MediciNova.
- Acute Exacerbations of Asthma: In 2010, the direct costs associated with hospital care due to asthma in the U.S. were estimated at $5.5 billion. Annual emergency department visits for asthma in the U.S. were approximately 1.75 million in 2007.
MN-029 (denibulin)
No specific addressable market size information for MN-029 (denibulin) for solid tumor cancers was found. However, it is being developed for solid tumor cancers.
AI Analysis | Feedback
MediciNova (MNOV) is a biopharmaceutical company with a pipeline of small molecule therapeutics focused on treating serious diseases. While analysts generally do not forecast significant product sales revenue for MediciNova within the next two to three years, several key pipeline advancements and strategic activities are expected to drive future revenue growth through potential partnerships, milestone payments, and eventually, product commercialization.
The primary anticipated drivers of future revenue growth for MediciNova include:
- Positive Top-Line Results and Potential Regulatory Submission for MN-166 (ibudilast) in Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS): MediciNova completed patient enrollment in its Phase 2b/3 COMBAT-ALS clinical trial for MN-166 in September 2025, with top-line results anticipated by the end of 2026. Positive outcomes from this pivotal trial are crucial and could pave the way for a regulatory submission to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) within the 2-3 year timeframe. MN-166 has already received Fast Track and Orphan Drug designations from the FDA for ALS, which could accelerate the review process and provide market exclusivity upon approval. Any significant progress toward regulatory approval, including a successful submission, could trigger milestone payments from existing or new collaboration agreements.
- Advancement and Potential Partnering of MN-001 (tipelukast) for Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH): MediciNova completed patient enrollment for its Phase 2 trial of MN-001 for NASH in November 2025, with top-line data expected in the summer of 2026. MN-001 also holds Fast Track designation for NASH with fibrosis. Positive clinical data for MN-001 could significantly enhance its attractiveness for new licensing agreements or expanded partnerships, leading to upfront payments and development milestones, contributing to revenue growth.
- New or Expanded Partnerships and Licensing Agreements for Pipeline Candidates: As a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, MediciNova's strategy includes building a strong product portfolio through alliances. Successful progression of its lead drug candidates, particularly MN-166 across its various indications (including progressive multiple sclerosis where it is Phase 3-ready and degenerative cervical myelopathy where it is in Phase 3), as well as MN-001, could lead to new or expanded collaboration agreements with pharmaceutical companies. These partnerships typically involve upfront payments, research and development funding, and milestone payments upon achieving specific clinical or regulatory goals, representing significant drivers of future revenue.
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Share Issuance
- MediciNova entered into a Standby Equity Purchase Agreement (SEPA) in July/August 2025, allowing the company to sell up to $30 million of its common stock over a 36-month period to investment funds managed by Yorkville Advisors Global LP.
- In March 2026, MediciNova established a $50 million at-the-market (ATM) facility to support operations.
- In January 2021, MediciNova issued US$20 million in shares of its common stock to 3D Opportunity Master Fund through a private placement transaction.
Inbound Investments
- MediciNova secured a $22 million grant from the National Institutes of Health (NIH) to support its Expanded Access Program for ALS, which commenced in March 2025.
- A Standby Equity Purchase Agreement (SEPA) with Yorkville Advisors Global LP, signed in July/August 2025, provides access to up to $30 million in capital over 36 months.
- In January 2021, the company received a US$20 million investment from 3D Opportunity Master Fund through a private placement.
Capital Expenditures
- Total research and development (R&D) and patent spend for MediciNova remained consistent at $7.2 million in 2025, primarily directed towards advancing clinical programs for MN-166 and MN-001, including higher trial costs.
- The US$20 million raised in January 2021 was allocated to initiating a new clinical trial of MN-166 for glioblastoma, developing an intravenous formulation of MN-166 for ALS, and commencing a Phase 2 clinical trial of MN-001 in nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH).
- MediciNova's projected operating needs for 2026 are approximately $16.2 million, which includes funding for ongoing development programs.
Peer Outperformance in Biotechnology
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health Care Distributors | 6 | 7.6% | 56.6% | 93.6% | CAH 498% · MCK 396% · COR 181% |
| Health Care Services | 20 | 33.8% | 28.8% | 6.1% | HIMS 189% · RDNT 125% · DGX 100% |
| Health Care Facilities | 25 | 13.9% | 27.4% | -1.4% | THC 280% · NHC 210% · EHC 186% |
| Managed Health Care | 8 | 47.9% | 1.6% | -2.2% | OSCR 95% · HQY 52% · ELV 10% |
| Health Care Equipment | 50 | 11.0% | 17.8% | -17.6% | UFPT 355% · GKOS 286% · PLSE 127% |
| Pharmaceuticals | 61 | -12.9% | 10.6% | -37.3% | LQDA 977% · XERS 571% · KNSA 500% |
| Health Care Supplies | 11 | 23.9% | 17.0% | -40.1% | LNTH 248% · HAE 66% · MMSI 29% |
| Life Sciences Tools & Services | 108 | -8.1% | -18.9% | -74.5% | AXGN 255% · NTRA 214% · MEDP 181% |
| Biotechnology ← | 364 | -25.8% | -36.1% | -82.0% | ELVN 1073% · TRVI 995% · DNTH 956% |
| Health Care Technology | 21 | -21.4% | -50.4% | -82.8% | VEEV -3% · DOCS -51% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| How Low Can MediciNova Stock Really Go? | 10/17/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 26.88 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.5 |
| Rev LTM | 11 |
| Op Inc LTM | -354 |
| FCF LTM | -316 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -255 |
| CFO LTM | -301 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -252 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 96.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 50.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 32.7% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -4.4% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -46.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -677.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -255.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 445.9% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -523.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -197.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -527.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -201.4% |
FDA Approved Drugs Data
Expand for More| Post-Approval Fwd Returns | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDA App # | Brand Name | Generic Name | Dosage Form | FDA Approval | 3M Rtn | 6M Rtn | 1Y Rtn | 2Y Rtn | Total Rtn |
| NDA206229 | LILETTA | levonorgestrel | system | 2262015 | 9.7% | -17.5% | 59.4% | 69.4% | -59.7% |
| Post-Approval Fwd Returns | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDA App # | Brand Name | Generic Name | Dosage Form | FDA Approval | 3M Rtn | 6M Rtn | 1Y Rtn | 2Y Rtn | Total Rtn |
| NDA206229 | LILETTA | levonorgestrel | system | 2262015 | 9.7% | -17.5% | 59.4% | 69.4% | -59.7% |
Clinical Pipeline
| Drug Candidate | Indication | Phase 3 Trials | Est. Primary Completion |
|---|---|---|---|
| MN-166 (Ibudilast) | Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis | 1 | Apr 2027 |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Acquisition and development of small molecule therapeutics for the treatment of serious diseases | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Total | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Acquisition and development of small molecule therapeutics for the treatment of serious diseases | -13 | -13 |
| Total | -13 | -13 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Acquisition and development of small molecule therapeutics for the treatment of serious diseases | -12 | -11 |
| Total | -12 | -11 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2020 | 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Acquisition and development of small molecule therapeutics for the treatment of serious diseases | 56 | 66 | 74 | 75 | 79 |
| Total | 56 | 66 | 74 | 75 | 79 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $1.45 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/08/2006 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -58.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $1.79 | $1.51 |
| DMA Trend | up | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | -18.8% | -4.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 119.8% | 75.6% |
| Downside Capture | 208.93 | 113.93 |
| Upside Capture | 271.50 | 99.34 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 21.7% | 11.4% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.15 | 3.56 | 2.06 | 1.03 | 0.79 | 0.52 |
| Up Beta | 8.17 | 13.93 | 5.24 | 2.51 | 0.29 | 0.44 |
| Down Beta | -1.01 | -2.16 | -0.89 | -0.33 | -0.09 | 0.35 |
| Up Capture | 12% | 463% | 229% | 104% | 140% | 22% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 6 | 16 | 26 | 52 | 106 | 315 |
| Down Capture | 258% | 309% | 178% | 114% | 113% | 94% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 14 | 25 | 32 | 62 | 125 | 369 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MNOV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MNOV | 2.1% | 75.6% | 0.32 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 29.2% | 16.9% | 1.33 | 7.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 9.5% | 13.6% | 0.41 | 11.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 3.6% | 28.7% | 0.11 | 12.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 37.7% | 21.2% | 1.40 | -8.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.0% | 14.2% | 0.55 | 7.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -20.8% | 43.3% | -0.42 | 11.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MNOV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MNOV | -15.9% | 66.6% | -0.01 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 8.6% | 15.4% | 0.36 | 13.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.3% | 17.3% | 0.48 | 17.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.5% | 19.1% | 0.74 | 8.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.0% | 19.6% | 0.29 | 3.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.2% | 18.9% | -0.05 | 12.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 5.9% | 51.5% | 0.29 | 10.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MNOV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MNOV | -14.5% | 75.7% | 0.09 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 12.2% | 16.8% | 0.60 | 20.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 18.0% | 0.70 | 24.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.0% | 16.5% | 0.59 | 6.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.6% | 18.1% | 0.33 | 7.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 19.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 61.3% | 66.2% | 1.01 | 9.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 9/28/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/20/2026 | -3.2% | -1.9% | 0.6% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| # Negative | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Median Positive | 0.6% | ||
| Median Negative | -3.2% | -1.9% | |
| Max Positive | 0.6% | ||
| Max Negative | -3.2% | -1.9% | |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/20/2026 | -3.2% | -1.9% | 0.6% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| # Negative | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Median Positive | 0.6% | ||
| Median Negative | -3.2% | -1.9% | |
| Max Positive | 0.6% | ||
| Max Negative | -3.2% | -1.9% | |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/13/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/14/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/10/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/14/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/13/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/19/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/13/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/15/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/11/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/16/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/13/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/14/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/10/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/14/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/13/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/19/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/13/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/15/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/11/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/16/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/11/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/12/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/16/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/12/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/12/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/13/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/19/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/26/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/28/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 04/23/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/13/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 10/25/2019 | 10-Q |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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