MediciNova (MNOV)
Market Price (6/23/2026): $1.305 | Market Cap: $64.2 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
MediciNova (MNOV)
Market Price (6/23/2026): $1.305Market Cap: $64.2 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -42% Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -32% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -40%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -112% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -13 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -2165% Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 107x Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 159% Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1592%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1593% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -23% Key risksMNOV key risks include its critical dependence on the successful outcomes of its lead product candidates, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -42% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -32% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -40%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -112% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -13 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -2165% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 107x |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 159% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1592%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1593% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -23% |
| Key risksMNOV key risks include its critical dependence on the successful outcomes of its lead product candidates, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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MediciNova (MNOV) stock has lost about 10% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. MediciNova's fiscal Q1 2026 earnings, despite beating analyst expectations, led to a stock decline. The company reported a net loss of $0.05 per share for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026, which was narrower than the analyst consensus estimate of a $0.0714 loss. However, following the announcement around May 14-22, 2026, shares declined by 1.44 points, reflecting market caution due to a lack of stronger positive catalysts.
2. The completion of the last patient visit in the Phase 2 MN-001 clinical trial resulted in a negative market reaction. On May 26, 2026, MediciNova announced this milestone for its MN-001-NATG-202 trial for hypertriglyceridemia and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) associated with type 2 diabetes. Despite being a step forward in the trial, the stock declined by 2.92% on the day of the announcement, accompanied by heavy selling pressure, possibly due to the expectation of top-line data not being available until fiscal Q3 2026.
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MediciNova (MNOV) stock has lost about 10% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. MediciNova's fiscal Q1 2026 earnings, despite beating analyst expectations, led to a stock decline. The company reported a net loss of $0.05 per share for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026, which was narrower than the analyst consensus estimate of a $0.0714 loss. However, following the announcement around May 14-22, 2026, shares declined by 1.44 points, reflecting market caution due to a lack of stronger positive catalysts.
2. The completion of the last patient visit in the Phase 2 MN-001 clinical trial resulted in a negative market reaction. On May 26, 2026, MediciNova announced this milestone for its MN-001-NATG-202 trial for hypertriglyceridemia and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) associated with type 2 diabetes. Despite being a step forward in the trial, the stock declined by 2.92% on the day of the announcement, accompanied by heavy selling pressure, possibly due to the expectation of top-line data not being available until fiscal Q3 2026.
3. A general absence of significant near-term clinical or commercial catalysts contributed to investor skepticism. Analyses of MediciNova's stock performance following its fiscal Q1 2026 earnings and clinical trial updates indicated that despite some operational progress, the market reacted negatively due to the lack of a major catalyst to drive the stock price higher. While the company continues to advance its lead candidate, ibudilast (MN-166), in ongoing late-stage trials for progressive multiple sclerosis and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, specific near-term data readouts were not disclosed to invigorate investor confidence during the period.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -10.3% change in MNOV stock from 2/28/2026 to 6/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -61.1% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 6222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1.45 | 1.30 | -10.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0 | 1 | 131.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 275.7 | 107.2 | -61.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 49 | 49 | -0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -10.3% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 6/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MNOV | -10.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.8% | 10.9% |
| Sector (XLV) | -5.9% | 14.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -10.3% change in MNOV stock from 11/30/2025 to 6/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -61.1% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 6222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1.45 | 1.30 | -10.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0 | 1 | 131.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 275.7 | 107.2 | -61.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 49 | 49 | -0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -10.3% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 6/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MNOV | -10.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.5% | 4.4% |
| Sector (XLV) | -4.0% | -0.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -6.5% change in MNOV stock from 5/31/2025 to 6/22/2026 was primarily driven by a null change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312025 | 6222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1.39 | 1.30 | -6.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0 | 1 | 9.2233720368547763E17% |
| P/S Multiple | ∞ | 107.2 | |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 49 | 49 | -0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2025 to 6/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MNOV | -6.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 27.7% | 7.2% |
| Sector (XLV) | 15.2% | 7.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -39.5% change in MNOV stock from 5/31/2023 to 6/22/2026 was primarily driven by a null change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312023 | 6222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 2.15 | 1.30 | -39.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0 | 1 | 9.2233720368547763E17% |
| P/S Multiple | ∞ | 107.2 | |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 49 | 49 | -0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2023 to 6/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MNOV | -39.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 85.1% | 11.1% |
| Sector (XLV) | 23.4% | 8.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MNOV Return | -49% | -24% | -27% | 40% | -38% | 1% | -75% |
| Peers Return | -34% | 88% | 6% | 8% | 81% | 8% | 175% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 100% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MNOV Win Rate | 25% | 33% | 42% | 58% | 25% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 40% | 50% | 38% | 52% | 55% | 43% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MNOV Max Drawdown | -70% | -37% | -47% | -32% | -45% | -35% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -52% | -45% | -53% | -51% | -37% | -25% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: IONS, DNLI, MDGL, VKTX, AMLX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/22/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MNOV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -18.1% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.1% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 20 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -33.1% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.4% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 355 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -16.3% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.5% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 91 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -49.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 98.6% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 17 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -38.8% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.5% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 135 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -35.5% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.0% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 275 days | 6 days |
In The Past
MediciNova's stock fell -18.1% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 22.1% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | MNOV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -33.1% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.4% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 355 days | 24 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -49.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 98.6% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 17 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -38.8% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.5% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 135 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -35.5% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.0% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 275 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -22.7% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.4% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 97 days | 62 days |
| 2013 Taper Tantrum | ||
| % Loss | -52.3% | -0.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 109.8% | 0.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 182 days | 1 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -29.3% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.4% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 158 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -30.4% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.7% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2065 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -68.8% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 220.3% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 172 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -24.5% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.4% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 33 days | 47 days |
In The Past
MediciNova's stock fell -18.1% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 22.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About MediciNova (MNOV)
MediciNova, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company focused on developing novel small molecule therapeutics for serious diseases with significant unmet medical needs in the United States. The company operates by advancing a pipeline of investigational drug candidates aimed at providing new treatment options for patients.
The core of MediciNova's business involves its product pipeline, led by MN-166 (ibudilast), an oral anti-inflammatory and neuroprotective agent. This compound is under development for a variety of neurological disorders, including primary and secondary progressive multiple sclerosis, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), chemotherapy-induced peripheral neuropathy, and glioblastoma, in addition to substance dependence. Other key drug candidates include MN-221 (bedoradrine) for acute exacerbations of asthma, MN-001 (tipelukast) for fibrotic diseases such as nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), and MN-029 (denibulin) for solid tumor cancers. The primary customers or markets MediciNova serves are patients suffering from these challenging neurological, respiratory, fibrotic, and oncological conditions.
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Here are 1-2 brief analogies for MediciNova:
- Like an early-stage Biogen, focused on developing novel treatments for neurological and other serious diseases.
- A developing Amgen, building a pipeline of experimental drugs for diverse challenging conditions.
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- MN-166 (ibudilast): An oral anti-inflammatory and neuroprotective agent for treating neurological disorders and substance dependence and addiction.
- MN-221 (bedoradrine): A selective beta-2-adrenergic receptor agonist for the treatment of acute exacerbations of asthma.
- MN-001 (tipelukast): An orally bioavailable small molecule compound to treat fibrotic diseases, including nonalcoholic steatohepatitis and idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.
- MN-029 (denibulin): A tubulin binding agent for treating solid tumor cancers.
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Major Customers of MediciNova (MNOV)
MediciNova, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company focused on developing novel therapeutics. As such, its primary "customers" are other pharmaceutical companies with whom it enters into collaboration agreements for the development, licensing, and potential commercialization of its drug candidates. Based on the provided background, MediciNova's major partners/potential customers include:
- Kissei Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (Symbol: 4547.T - Tokyo Stock Exchange)
- Kyorin Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd (Symbol: 4564.T - Tokyo Stock Exchange)
- Angiogene Pharmaceuticals Ltd. (Private Company)
- Meiji Seika Kaisha Ltd. (A subsidiary of Meiji Holdings Co Ltd, Symbol: 2269.T - Tokyo Stock Exchange)
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- Kissei Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (TYO: 4547)
- Kyorin Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (TYO: 4564)
- Angiogene Pharmaceuticals Ltd.
- Meiji Seika Kaisha Ltd. (TYO: 2269 for parent Meiji Holdings Co., Ltd.)
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Yuichi Iwaki, M.D., Ph.D. President and Chief Executive Officer, and Founder
Dr. Iwaki co-founded MediciNova in September 2000 and has served as its CEO since March 2006. He holds three professorships at the University of Southern California School of Medicine in the Departments of Urology, Surgery, and Pathology, and has been Director of the Transplantation Immunology and Immunogenetic Laboratory since 1992. Prior to that, he held professorships at the University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine. Dr. Iwaki has advised pharmaceutical companies and venture capital funds on research and investment strategies for over 30 years and is a board member of several biotechnology companies, including Avigen, Inc.
Jason Kruger Chief Financial Officer
Mr. Kruger has served as Chief Financial Officer of MediciNova since June 2022. He is the president and founder of Signature Analytics, an accounting services firm he established in September 2008, which was acquired by Citrin Cooperman Advisors LLC in November 2024. Before founding Signature Analytics, Mr. Kruger was a Senior Manager for Deloitte & Touche LLP from 2003 to 2008 and a Senior Accountant for Moss Adams LLP from 1999 to 2003.
Kazuko Matsuda, M.D., Ph.D, MPH Chief Medical Officer
Dr. Matsuda has served as Chief Medical Officer for MediciNova since 2010, and previously as Vice President of Clinical Development. She is responsible for all clinical development. Prior to joining MediciNova, Dr. Matsuda was a clinical advisor to the company for its MN-221 and MN-166 development programs, and an assistant professor at the University of Southern California, Keck School of Medicine. She is a board-certified pediatrician in both the United States and Japan.
David H. Crean, Ph.D. Chief Business Officer
Dr. Crean has served as Chief Business Officer since May 2021. He is also the President and CEO of Coast BioVentures LLC, an emerging life sciences venture fund, and a managing partner with Cardiff Advisory LLC, a strategic and financial advisory firm focused on mergers, acquisitions, and partnering transactions within the life science and healthcare sectors. Dr. Crean was previously a Managing Director for Objective Capital Partners, LLC, and is a limited partner with Mesa Verde Venture Partners, a leading life sciences venture fund.
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Key Risks to MediciNova (MNOV)
MediciNova, Inc. (MNOV), a biopharmaceutical company focused on developing novel small molecule therapeutics for serious diseases, faces several significant risks inherent in the biotechnology industry. The most prominent risks relate to the unpredictable nature of drug development, the substantial capital required for research and commercialization, and the increasing competition in its target markets.
1. Clinical Trial Failure and Regulatory Approval Risk
The most significant risk to MediciNova's business is the potential for its product candidates to fail in clinical trials or to not receive regulatory approval. Biopharmaceutical development is a lengthy, costly, and uncertain process, where early positive results do not guarantee success in later-stage trials or ultimate approval by regulatory authorities such as the FDA. The company's lead assets, MN-166 (ibudilast) and MN-001 (tipelukast), as well as other candidates like MN-221 and MN-029, are subject to these inherent risks. Delays, suspensions, or terminations of clinical trials can lead to increased costs and significantly hinder or prevent regulatory approval. For example, a Phase 2b study for MN-221 in asthma exacerbations did not statistically meet its primary endpoint, resulting in a substantial drop in the company's stock price.
2. Funding and Capital Raising Risk
Another critical risk for MediciNova is the ongoing need to raise sufficient capital to fund its operations and contribute to the development of its product candidates. Developing novel therapeutics through multiple clinical phases to commercialization requires substantial financial resources. Although MediciNova has utilized a lean funding strategy involving grants and partnerships and reported a cash position in November 2025 that suggests it can sustain programs without near-term financing, the extensive and often unpredictable costs associated with drug development mean that the company may need to secure significant additional capital in the future. The ability to obtain such funding is crucial for the continued advancement of its pipeline.
3. Dependence on Lead Candidates and Market Competition
MediciNova's business prospects are highly dependent on the successful development and eventual commercialization of its lead product candidates, particularly MN-166 and MN-001. MN-166 is currently in Phase 3 for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) and degenerative cervical myelopathy (DCM), and is Phase 3-ready for progressive multiple sclerosis (MS). The failure of these key programs would have a severe adverse impact on the company. Furthermore, while MediciNova targets diseases with unmet medical needs, the market for such conditions can be highly competitive. The landscape for drug development in areas like ALS, for instance, is seeing accelerated activity, with a surge in early-stage clinical trials. This increasing competition from other pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies could affect the commercial viability and market share of MediciNova's products, even if approved.
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MediciNova (MNOV) is developing several product candidates for various diseases. The addressable markets for their main products or services are as follows:
MN-166 (ibudilast)
- Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS): The addressable market for ALS treatment in the U.S. is US$987.6 million. Approximately 20,000 ALS patients are in the U.S., with around 5,000 new diagnoses annually.
MN-001 (tipelukast)
- Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF): The global Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis market size is expected to reach $4.7 billion by 2027. In 2023, the total market size of Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis in the 7MM (United States, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, UK, and Japan) was approximately USD 3,300 million. The global Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis market generated US$2,970.69 million in 2025 and is estimated to reach US$6,736.49 million by 2035, growing at a CAGR of 9.4% from 2026-2035. In the U.S., IPF affects an estimated 128,000 individuals, with approximately 48,000 new cases diagnosed each year.
- Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH): NASH prevalence in the U.S. is 2-5%, with an additional 10-20% of Americans having "fatty liver."
MN-221 (bedoradrine)
The license agreement for MN-221 was terminated in October 2022, and therefore, it is no longer actively developed by MediciNova.
- Acute Exacerbations of Asthma: In 2010, the direct costs associated with hospital care due to asthma in the U.S. were estimated at $5.5 billion. Annual emergency department visits for asthma in the U.S. were approximately 1.75 million in 2007.
MN-029 (denibulin)
No specific addressable market size information for MN-029 (denibulin) for solid tumor cancers was found. However, it is being developed for solid tumor cancers.
AI Analysis | Feedback
MediciNova (MNOV) is a biopharmaceutical company with a pipeline of small molecule therapeutics focused on treating serious diseases. While analysts generally do not forecast significant product sales revenue for MediciNova within the next two to three years, several key pipeline advancements and strategic activities are expected to drive future revenue growth through potential partnerships, milestone payments, and eventually, product commercialization.
The primary anticipated drivers of future revenue growth for MediciNova include:
- Positive Top-Line Results and Potential Regulatory Submission for MN-166 (ibudilast) in Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS): MediciNova completed patient enrollment in its Phase 2b/3 COMBAT-ALS clinical trial for MN-166 in September 2025, with top-line results anticipated by the end of 2026. Positive outcomes from this pivotal trial are crucial and could pave the way for a regulatory submission to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) within the 2-3 year timeframe. MN-166 has already received Fast Track and Orphan Drug designations from the FDA for ALS, which could accelerate the review process and provide market exclusivity upon approval. Any significant progress toward regulatory approval, including a successful submission, could trigger milestone payments from existing or new collaboration agreements.
- Advancement and Potential Partnering of MN-001 (tipelukast) for Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH): MediciNova completed patient enrollment for its Phase 2 trial of MN-001 for NASH in November 2025, with top-line data expected in the summer of 2026. MN-001 also holds Fast Track designation for NASH with fibrosis. Positive clinical data for MN-001 could significantly enhance its attractiveness for new licensing agreements or expanded partnerships, leading to upfront payments and development milestones, contributing to revenue growth.
- New or Expanded Partnerships and Licensing Agreements for Pipeline Candidates: As a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, MediciNova's strategy includes building a strong product portfolio through alliances. Successful progression of its lead drug candidates, particularly MN-166 across its various indications (including progressive multiple sclerosis where it is Phase 3-ready and degenerative cervical myelopathy where it is in Phase 3), as well as MN-001, could lead to new or expanded collaboration agreements with pharmaceutical companies. These partnerships typically involve upfront payments, research and development funding, and milestone payments upon achieving specific clinical or regulatory goals, representing significant drivers of future revenue.
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Share Issuance
- MediciNova entered into a Standby Equity Purchase Agreement (SEPA) in July/August 2025, allowing the company to sell up to $30 million of its common stock over a 36-month period to investment funds managed by Yorkville Advisors Global LP.
- In March 2026, MediciNova established a $50 million at-the-market (ATM) facility to support operations.
- In January 2021, MediciNova issued US$20 million in shares of its common stock to 3D Opportunity Master Fund through a private placement transaction.
Inbound Investments
- MediciNova secured a $22 million grant from the National Institutes of Health (NIH) to support its Expanded Access Program for ALS, which commenced in March 2025.
- A Standby Equity Purchase Agreement (SEPA) with Yorkville Advisors Global LP, signed in July/August 2025, provides access to up to $30 million in capital over 36 months.
- In January 2021, the company received a US$20 million investment from 3D Opportunity Master Fund through a private placement.
Capital Expenditures
- Total research and development (R&D) and patent spend for MediciNova remained consistent at $7.2 million in 2025, primarily directed towards advancing clinical programs for MN-166 and MN-001, including higher trial costs.
- The US$20 million raised in January 2021 was allocated to initiating a new clinical trial of MN-166 for glioblastoma, developing an intravenous formulation of MN-166 for ALS, and commencing a Phase 2 clinical trial of MN-001 in nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH).
- MediciNova's projected operating needs for 2026 are approximately $16.2 million, which includes funding for ongoing development programs.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| How Low Can MediciNova Stock Really Go? | 10/17/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 28.21 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.1 |
| Rev LTM | 0 |
| Op Inc LTM | -333 |
| FCF LTM | -306 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -266 |
| CFO LTM | -304 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -264 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 100.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 66.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 106.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 18.2% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 2.8% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -11.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -33.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -49.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 7.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -86.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -65.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -92.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -71.8% |
FDA Approved Drugs Data
Expand for More| Post-Approval Fwd Returns | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDA App # | Brand Name | Generic Name | Dosage Form | FDA Approval | 3M Rtn | 6M Rtn | 1Y Rtn | 2Y Rtn | Total Rtn |
| NDA206229 | LILETTA | levonorgestrel | system | 2262015 | 9.7% | -17.5% | 59.4% | 69.4% | -63.9% |
| Post-Approval Fwd Returns | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDA App # | Brand Name | Generic Name | Dosage Form | FDA Approval | 3M Rtn | 6M Rtn | 1Y Rtn | 2Y Rtn | Total Rtn |
| NDA206229 | LILETTA | levonorgestrel | system | 2262015 | 9.7% | -17.5% | 59.4% | 69.4% | -63.9% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Acquisition and development of small molecule therapeutics for the treatment of serious diseases | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Total | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Acquisition and development of small molecule therapeutics for the treatment of serious diseases | -13 | -13 |
| Total | -13 | -13 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Acquisition and development of small molecule therapeutics for the treatment of serious diseases | -12 | -11 |
| Total | -12 | -11 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Acquisition and development of small molecule therapeutics for the treatment of serious diseases | 56 | 66 | 74 | 87 | 75 |
| Total | 56 | 66 | 74 | 87 | 75 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $1.30 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/08/2006 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -30.9% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $1.37 | $1.41 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | down |
| Distance from DMA | -5.1% | -7.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 31.1% | 66.8% |
| Downside Capture | 93.11 | 109.26 |
| Upside Capture | 14.25 | 80.23 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 16.6% | 5.8% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.29 | 0.79 | 0.47 | 0.24 | 0.44 | 0.49 |
| Up Beta | 1.45 | 0.34 | 0.36 | -0.37 | -0.82 | 0.30 |
| Down Beta | -0.17 | 2.28 | -0.09 | -0.60 | -0.35 | 0.46 |
| Up Capture | 72% | 38% | 39% | 53% | 92% | 19% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 28 | 36 | 67 | 141 | 432 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 30 | 54 | 108 | 313 |
| Down Capture | 277% | 187% | 104% | 97% | 126% | 94% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 13 | 27 | 57 | 109 | 318 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 120 | 372 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MNOV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MNOV | 4.0% | 66.7% | 0.30 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 14.7% | 15.0% | 0.70 | 6.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 26.1% | 12.4% | 1.59 | 5.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.1% | 27.5% | 0.77 | 1.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 18.5% | 18.8% | 0.77 | -4.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.8% | 13.8% | 0.57 | 1.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -40.2% | 42.5% | -1.09 | 8.8% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MNOV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MNOV | -20.8% | 61.8% | -0.15 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 5.5% | 14.7% | 0.19 | 14.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.4% | 17.1% | 0.61 | 18.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.1% | 18.3% | 0.76 | 6.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.5% | 19.4% | 0.28 | 6.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.1% | 18.9% | 0.01 | 13.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 9.4% | 54.1% | 0.37 | 9.1% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MNOV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MNOV | -14.8% | 73.6% | 0.07 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 9.5% | 16.6% | 0.46 | 21.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 18.0% | 0.73 | 25.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.2% | 16.1% | 0.62 | 5.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 6.0% | 18.0% | 0.26 | 9.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 19.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 59.9% | 66.8% | 1.00 | 9.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/2/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/20/2026 | -3.2% | -1.9% | 0.6% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| # Negative | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Median Positive | 0.6% | ||
| Median Negative | -3.2% | -1.9% | |
| Max Positive | 0.6% | ||
| Max Negative | -3.2% | -1.9% | |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/20/2026 | -3.2% | -1.9% | 0.6% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| # Negative | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Median Positive | 0.6% | ||
| Median Negative | -3.2% | -1.9% | |
| Max Positive | 0.6% | ||
| Max Negative | -3.2% | -1.9% | |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/14/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/10/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/14/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/13/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/19/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/13/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/15/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/11/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/16/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/11/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/14/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/10/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/14/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/13/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/19/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/13/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/15/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/11/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/16/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/11/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/12/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/16/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/12/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/12/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/13/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/19/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/26/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/28/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 04/23/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/13/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 10/25/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 07/25/2019 | 10-Q |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.