Tearsheet

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $578.67 | Market Cap: $13.0 Bil
Sector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $578.67
Market Cap: $13.0 Bil
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Biotechnology

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 864%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -3.5%, Dist 3Y High is -3.5%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -307 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -42%
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -40%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 17%
Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 108%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more.
  Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -22%
3   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.0%
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 864%
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -40%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more.
3 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -3.5%, Dist 3Y High is -3.5%
4 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 17%
5 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -307 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -42%
6 Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 108%
7 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -22%
8 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.0%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

MDGL Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL) stock movement: 1. Strong Commercialization of Rezdiffra: Madrigal Pharmaceuticals reported robust preliminary net sales for Rezdiffra (resmetirom) for the fourth quarter of 2024, ranging from $100 million to $103 million, with full-year 2024 net sales between $177 million and $180 million. By the end of 2024, over 11,800 patients were actively on Rezdiffra, indicating successful market penetration and strong demand for the first FDA-approved treatment for MASH (formerly NASH).

2. Progress Towards European Market Expansion: In March 2025, the European Medicines Agency (EMA) validated Madrigal's Marketing Authorization Application for Rezdiffra, with a decision anticipated by mid-2025. The company expects to commence country-by-country launches in Europe, beginning with Germany, in the second half of 2025, positioning Rezdiffra as the first approved therapy for MASH liver fibrosis in Europe.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MDGL Return22%-24%243%-20%33%86%529%
Peers Return6%-1%-7%-13%-25%2%-34%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MDGL Win Rate50%42%50%25%58%60% 
Peers Win Rate29%21%25%27%15%40% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MDGL Max Drawdown-34%-35%-34%-59%-26%-13% 
Peers Max Drawdown-19%-10%-17%-24%-25%-2% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTX, ACSB, AIXC, ALPS, APRI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventMDGLS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-61.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven159.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven371 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-35.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven55.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven38 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-73.2%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven272.4%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1845 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-87.6%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven708.8%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1425 days1480 days

Compare to VRTX, ACSB, AIXC, ALPS, APRI


In The Past

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals's stock fell -61.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/28/2023. A -61.4% loss requires a 159.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

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Asset Allocation

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About Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL)

Better Bets than Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MDGL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Madrigal Pharmaceuticals

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MDGLVRTXACSBAIXCALPSAPRIMedian
NameMadrigal.Vertex P.Acesis AIxCryptoALPS Aprinoia. 
Mkt Price579.89463.13-2.541.07-232.84
Mkt Cap13.0118.4----65.7
Rev LTM74111,723-0--741
Op Inc LTM-307-92--5---92
FCF LTM-1613,337--6---6
FCF 3Y Avg-3012,064--10---10
CFO LTM-1613,718--6---6
CFO 3Y Avg-2982,419--10---10

Growth & Margins

MDGLVRTXACSBAIXCALPSAPRIMedian
NameMadrigal.Vertex P.Acesis AIxCryptoALPS Aprinoia. 
Rev Chg LTM864.2%10.3%----437.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-10.5%----10.5%
Rev Chg Q362.0%11.0%----186.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM43.7%2.7%----23.2%
Op Mgn LTM-41.5%-0.8%-----21.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-26.2%----26.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM18.6%1.0%----9.8%
CFO/Rev LTM-21.7%31.7%----5.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-23.1%----23.1%
FCF/Rev LTM-21.7%28.5%----3.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-19.8%----19.8%

Valuation

MDGLVRTXACSBAIXCALPSAPRIMedian
NameMadrigal.Vertex P.Acesis AIxCryptoALPS Aprinoia. 
Mkt Cap13.0118.4----65.7
P/S13.98.5----11.2
P/EBIT-38.022.4-----7.8
P/E-35.727.2-----4.2
P/CFO-64.226.9-----18.6
Total Yield-2.8%3.7%----0.4%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%----0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-7.4%2.3%-----2.6%
D/E0.00.0----0.0
Net D/E-0.1-0.0-----0.1

Returns

MDGLVRTXACSBAIXCALPSAPRIMedian
NameMadrigal.Vertex P.Acesis AIxCryptoALPS Aprinoia. 
1M Rtn40.6%8.7%----24.7%
3M Rtn33.2%16.8%----25.0%
6M Rtn107.6%3.9%----55.7%
12M Rtn80.4%1.3%----40.9%
3Y Rtn623.4%44.1%----333.8%
1M Excs Rtn40.7%8.7%----24.7%
3M Excs Rtn29.1%11.3%----20.2%
6M Excs Rtn92.9%-10.8%----41.0%
12M Excs Rtn63.1%-14.6%----24.3%
3Y Excs Rtn714.7%-25.9%----344.4%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment641363273287442
Total641363273287442


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity3,786,197
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120251.4%
Average Daily Volume512,811
Days-to-Cover Short Interest7.38
Basic Shares Quantity22,482,502
Short % of Basic Shares16.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251104202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025805202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025501202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024226202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241031202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023228202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231106202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022223202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022509202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021224202210-K 12/31/2021