Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL)
Market Price (11/13/2025): $526.28 | Market Cap: $11.8 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL)
Market Price (11/13/2025): $526.28Market Cap: $11.8 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 864% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.3%, Dist 3Y High is -2.3% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -307 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -42% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -40% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 12.67, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 17% | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -22% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more. | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.6% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 864% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -40% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.3%, Dist 3Y High is -2.3% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 12.67, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 17% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -307 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -42% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -22% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.6% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
MDGL Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL) experienced a significant stock movement of 74.9% from July 31, 2025, to November 13, 2025, driven by several key developments related to its lead product, Rezdiffra (resmetirom), and strategic corporate initiatives.
1. Extended Patent Protection for Rezdiffra. In July 2025, Madrigal received a Notice of Allowance for a new U.S. patent. This patent provides protection for Rezdiffra's FDA-approved weight-based dosing regimen until September 30, 2044, thereby enhancing its market exclusivity.
2. Strong Q2 2025 Financial Results and European Expansion. On August 5, 2025, Madrigal reported robust second-quarter 2025 financial results, with Rezdiffra net sales reaching $212.8 million, surpassing analyst expectations. Additionally, the company received a positive opinion from the Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) for Rezdiffra's approval in Europe, with the European Commission granting conditional marketing authorization in August 2025, leading to a launch in Germany in September.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MDGL Return | 22% | -24% | 243% | -20% | 33% | 71% | 481% |
| Peers Return | -15% | -9% | -6% | -3% | -3% | -17% | -44% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MDGL Win Rate | 50% | 42% | 50% | 25% | 58% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 18% | 15% | 23% | 31% | 22% | 62% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MDGL Max Drawdown | -34% | -35% | -34% | -59% | -26% | -13% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -20% | -13% | -14% | -15% | -30% | -27% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTX, APM, BBOT, GDTC, HIND.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/12/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MDGL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -61.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 159.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 371 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -35.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 38 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -73.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 272.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1845 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -87.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 708.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1425 days | 1480 days |
Compare to VRTX, APM, BBOT, GDTC, HIND
In The Past
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals's stock fell -61.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/28/2023. A -61.4% loss requires a 159.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MDGL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -10.1% | -10.1% | -10.1% |
| 10312025 | DXCM | DexCom | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.2% | -0.2% | -5.8% |
| 10242025 | ACHC | Acadia Healthcare | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -22.0% | -22.0% | -22.3% |
| 10102025 | PBH | Prestige Consumer Healthcare | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.7% | -0.7% | -1.9% |
| 10032025 | REGN | Regeneron Pharmaceuticals | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.4% | 12.4% | -7.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -10.1% | -10.1% | -10.1% |
| 10312025 | DXCM | DexCom | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.2% | -0.2% | -5.8% |
| 10242025 | ACHC | Acadia Healthcare | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -22.0% | -22.0% | -22.3% |
| 10102025 | PBH | Prestige Consumer Healthcare | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.7% | -0.7% | -1.9% |
| 10032025 | REGN | Regeneron Pharmaceuticals | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.4% | 12.4% | -7.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Madrigal Pharmaceuticals
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 8.98 |
| Mkt Cap | 61.4 |
| Rev LTM | 741 |
| Op Inc LTM | -93 |
| FCF LTM | -60 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 881 |
| CFO LTM | -60 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,060 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 437.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 186.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 23.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -21.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 26.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 9.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 5.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 3.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 61.4 |
| P/S | 12.8 |
| P/EBIT | -9.5 |
| P/E | -5.5 |
| P/CFO | -22.1 |
| Total Yield | 0.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -2.6% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 6.4% |
| 3M Rtn | 10.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 19.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 3.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 43.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 5.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 3.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -14.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -36.8% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/4/2025 | 7.8% | ||
| 8/5/2025 | 8.6% | 12.0% | 39.5% |
| 5/1/2025 | -1.9% | -10.5% | -17.6% |
| 1/13/2025 | -10.4% | -13.4% | -2.1% |
| 10/31/2024 | 20.1% | 56.6% | 52.0% |
| 8/7/2024 | -12.2% | -8.6% | -7.7% |
| 2/28/2024 | 6.0% | 3.6% | 7.9% |
| 11/6/2023 | 0.3% | -5.5% | 60.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| # Negative | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 6.0% | 3.6% | 13.4% |
| Median Negative | -3.9% | -6.0% | -10.9% |
| Max Positive | 20.1% | 56.6% | 60.1% |
| Max Negative | -12.2% | -13.4% | -22.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2262025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11062023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5092022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |