Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL)
Market Price (5/7/2026): $539.15 | Market Cap: $15.7 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL)
Market Price (5/7/2026): $539.15Market Cap: $15.7 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 257% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 45% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -2.3% Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 12.69, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -314 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -28% Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -24%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -24% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.3% Key risksMDGL key risks include [1] its singular dependence on its MASH drug, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 257% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 45% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -2.3% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 12.69, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -314 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -28% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -24%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -24% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.3% |
| Key risksMDGL key risks include [1] its singular dependence on its MASH drug, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Robust First-Quarter 2026 Financial Results.
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals reported a narrower-than-expected basic and diluted net loss of $3.25 per share for the first quarter of 2026, outperforming analyst estimates of a $4.11 loss by 20.9%. The company also exceeded revenue forecasts, posting $311.3 million, which represents a significant 127% increase compared to the prior-year period.
2. Accelerated Commercial Uptake of Rezdiffra.
The company's primary MASH drug, Rezdiffra (resmetirom), achieved "blockbuster status" on a trailing-12-month net sales basis within this period, demonstrating strong market penetration. The number of active patients receiving therapy more than doubled from the first quarter of 2025, exceeding 42,250, driven by broad physician adoption and high patient demand.
Show more
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 10.3% change in MDGL stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 52.9% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 489.31 | 539.73 | 10.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 741 | 1,132 | 52.9% |
| P/S Multiple | 14.9 | 13.8 | -6.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 22 | 29 | -22.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 10.3% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MDGL | 10.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.6% | 15.1% |
| Sector (XLV) | -5.6% | 9.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 28.8% change in MDGL stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 119.7% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 418.90 | 539.73 | 28.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 516 | 1,132 | 119.7% |
| P/S Multiple | 18.0 | 13.8 | -23.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 22 | 29 | -23.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 28.8% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MDGL | 28.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.5% | 12.5% |
| Sector (XLV) | 1.6% | 19.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 61.6% change in MDGL stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 528.7% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 333.91 | 539.73 | 61.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 180 | 1,132 | 528.7% |
| P/S Multiple | 40.7 | 13.8 | -66.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 22 | 29 | -24.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 61.6% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MDGL | 61.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 30.4% | 15.8% |
| Sector (XLV) | 5.4% | 21.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 73.0% change in MDGL stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 9.2233720368547763E17% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 312.00 | 539.73 | 73.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0 | 1,132 | 9.2233720368547763E17% |
| P/S Multiple | ∞ | 13.8 | |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 17 | 29 | -40.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MDGL | 73.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 78.7% | 20.9% |
| Sector (XLV) | 14.5% | 20.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MDGL Return | -24% | 243% | -20% | 33% | 89% | -14% | 352% |
| Peers Return | -17% | 57% | 20% | 40% | 218% | 10% | 669% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 6% | 93% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MDGL Win Rate | 42% | 50% | 25% | 58% | 58% | 20% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 39% | 44% | 44% | 53% | 53% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MDGL Max Drawdown | -35% | -34% | -59% | -26% | -13% | -27% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -29% | -51% | -31% | -19% | -39% | -15% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: GILD, VKTX, TERN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/6/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MDGL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -22.1% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.4% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 54 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -17.7% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.5% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 86 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -42.8% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.9% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 35 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -20.2% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.3% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 253 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -38.0% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 61.2% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 13 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -35.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 38 days | 140 days |
In The Past
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals's stock fell -22.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 28.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | MDGL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -22.1% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.4% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 54 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -42.8% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.9% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 35 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -20.2% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.3% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 253 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -38.0% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 61.2% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 13 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -35.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 38 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -56.0% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 127.4% | 23.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1456 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -91.2% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1039.0% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 664 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -95.3% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 2039.0% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 720 days | 15 days |
| 2013 Taper Tantrum | ||
| % Loss | -63.1% | -0.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 171.2% | 0.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 4290 days | 1 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -36.8% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 58.1% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 66 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -36.6% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 57.8% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 141 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -78.9% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 373.5% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 679 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -40.0% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 66.7% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 31 days | 47 days |
In The Past
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals's stock fell -22.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 28.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Like Moderna before its COVID vaccine, but focused on developing a breakthrough drug for liver disease.
Like an early-stage Vertex Pharmaceuticals (known for specialized drugs), but focused on treatments for liver disease.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Resmetirom: A liver-directed selective thyroid hormone receptor-ß agonist in Phase III clinical trials for non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH).
- MGL-3745: A backup compound to resmetirom.
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
Bill Sibold, Chief Executive Officer and Director
Mr. Sibold has served as President and Chief Executive Officer of Madrigal Pharmaceuticals since September 2023, bringing over 30 years of experience in the biopharmaceutical industry. Prior to joining Madrigal, he was the Executive Vice President, Specialty Care of Sanofi and President, Sanofi North America from 2017 to September 2023, where he led a global organization of approximately 10,000 employees and was a member of the Sanofi Executive Committee. During his tenure at Sanofi, Specialty Care achieved sustained double-digit growth, and he was instrumental in the launch of Dupixent. His previous leadership roles include Chief Commercial Officer of Avanir Pharmaceuticals, President and CEO of Lycera Corp., and Senior Vice President, U.S. Commercial for Biogen.
Mardi C. Dier, Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
Ms. Dier was appointed Chief Financial Officer of Madrigal Pharmaceuticals on March 11, 2024. She possesses over 20 years of experience in executive financial leadership within the biopharmaceutical industry, with extensive expertise in operational and strategic decision-making, capital raising, financial planning and accounting, global supply chain management, investor relations, and business development. Before joining Madrigal, Ms. Dier served as Chief Financial Officer at Portola Pharmaceuticals, Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical, Inc., and Acelyrin, Inc.
Rebecca Taub, M.D., Founder and Director; Senior Scientific and Medical Advisor
Dr. Taub co-founded Madrigal Pharmaceuticals in 2011 with a vision to address unmet medical needs for patients with serious liver and cardiometabolic diseases. She transitioned to Senior Scientific and Medical Advisor effective April 21, 2025, and continues to serve on Madrigal's Board of Directors. Previously, Dr. Taub served as the company's President, Research & Development from June 2019 and Chief Medical Officer from July 2016. She also held the role of Chief Executive Officer of privately-held Madrigal Pharmaceuticals from its inception in September 2011 until July 2016. Her background includes roles as Senior Vice President, Research and Development of VIA Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (2008-2011) and Vice President, Research, Metabolic Diseases at F. Hoffmann-La Roche (2004-2008). Dr. Taub was also a tenured Professor of Genetics and Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania. Under her leadership, Madrigal achieved the development of Rezdiffra™ (resmetirom), the first FDA-approved medicine for MASH.
Mark Barrett, Executive Vice President, Chief Business Officer
Mr. Barrett joined Madrigal Pharmaceuticals in January 2024, bringing more than 25 years of executive leadership and biopharmaceutical industry experience. He has a proven track record of successfully completing a wide range of partnerships and acquisitions to build commercial portfolios and R&D pipelines. Prior to Madrigal, he was a Co-founder, CEO, and Director of Lassen Therapeutics, a biotechnology company focused on novel antibody therapeutics. Mr. Barrett also served as an Entrepreneur in Residence at Frazier Healthcare Partners, where he focused on establishing and financing new biotech companies.
Neil Archer, Executive Vice President, International
Mr. Archer serves as Madrigal Pharmaceuticals' Executive Vice President, International. Specific background details for Mr. Archer were not available in the provided search results.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Key Risks to Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL)
- Heavy Dependence on a Single Product: Madrigal Pharmaceuticals' business is substantially dependent on the successful commercialization and continued success of its lead product, Rezdiffra (resmetirom), which currently represents the overwhelming majority of its revenue. This creates a significant "single point of failure risk" where any material adverse event impacting Rezdiffra, such as manufacturing or supply chain disruptions, the emergence of superior competitive products, unforeseen regulatory actions, or unexpected post-launch side effects, could severely undermine the company's financial performance and future prospects.
- Intense Competitive Pressures in the MASH Market: The market for Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatohepatitis (MASH), formerly known as NASH, is highly competitive and rapidly evolving. Madrigal Pharmaceuticals faces substantial competition from other pharmaceutical companies, including large players like Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, who are developing or have approved GLP-1 agonists with potential applications in MASH. These competitors could introduce alternative or superior treatments, leading to intense pricing pressure, erosion of market share, and lower-than-expected peak sales for Rezdiffra.
- Uncertainties in Market Acceptance and Commercialization Challenges: Despite Rezdiffra receiving accelerated approval, there are inherent uncertainties regarding its broad market acceptance by physicians, patients, and third-party payers. Challenges in achieving anticipated market penetration, accurately estimating the potential market size, and securing adequate reimbursement and support from the medical community could limit Rezdiffra's commercial success. These factors pose significant commercialization risks that could hinder revenue growth and profitability.
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals' primary product, resmetirom (marketed as Rezdiffra), targets the treatment of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), now often referred to as metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH), specifically for adults with noncirrhotic MASH with moderate to advanced liver fibrosis (consistent with stages F2 to F3 fibrosis).
The addressable market for NASH/MASH treatments is substantial and rapidly growing:
- Global Market: The global NASH treatment market was valued at approximately USD 2.114 billion in 2023. It is projected to grow significantly, with various estimates pointing to a market size of USD 31.76 billion by 2033, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.7% from 2025 to 2033. Other projections suggest the global market could reach USD 55.52 billion by 2032 with a CAGR of 28.05% from 2025 to 2032. Some analyses even indicate a potential global market worth up to USD 108.4 billion by 2030.
- U.S. Market: The United States represented the largest share of the NASH market among the 7 major markets (7MM), valued at approximately USD 1.519 billion in 2023. The U.S. non-alcoholic steatohepatitis treatment market was valued at USD 4.56 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 32.55 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 27.88%. Madrigal Pharmaceuticals is focused on approximately 315,000 patients in the U.S. with moderate to advanced fibrosis (F2-F3) who are under the care of liver specialists. For patients with compensated MASH cirrhosis (stage F4c), the estimated market opportunity in the U.S. includes approximately 245,000 diagnosed patients under the care of a liver specialist. The approved drug segment, which primarily includes Rezdiffra as the first approved therapy, reached USD 178.31 million in 2024 and is expected to surge to USD 16.82 billion by 2033. The U.S. NASH market alone could be worth USD 15 billion by 2027.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```htmlMadrigal Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: MDGL) is poised for significant revenue growth over the next two to three years, driven primarily by the continued commercial success and expansion of its lead product, Rezdiffra (resmetirom), the first and only FDA-approved therapy for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) with moderate to advanced liver fibrosis.
Here are the key expected drivers of future revenue growth:
- Continued U.S. Market Penetration and Patient Adoption for Rezdiffra: Since its FDA approval in March 2024, Rezdiffra has demonstrated exceptional launch performance and strong demand in the U.S. market. By the end of Q4 2025, over 36,250 patients were on Rezdiffra therapy. Madrigal anticipates steadily increasing patient numbers and expanding its market presence, with broad first-line insurance access and no step-edit requirements secured for 2026, positioning Rezdiffra as a foundational therapy for F2 to F3 MASH. The U.S. market remains the primary growth engine for the company.
- International Expansion with Rezdiffra Launch in Europe: Madrigal is awaiting regulatory approval for Rezdiffra from the European Medicines Agency (EMA), with a decision anticipated by mid-2025. Following approval, the company plans a country-by-country launch in Europe, commencing with Germany in the second half of 2025. The European market for MASH patients with F2/F3 fibrosis is estimated to be larger than in the U.S., presenting a substantial opportunity for revenue growth over the next 2-3 years as the product gains traction across the continent.
- Potential Label Expansion for Rezdiffra in Compensated MASH Cirrhosis (F4c): Madrigal is actively pursuing an expanded indication for Rezdiffra to treat patients with compensated MASH cirrhosis. Positive two-year data from the Phase 3 MAESTRO-NAFLD-1 trial in this population suggest Rezdiffra's potential to become the first approved treatment for this advanced stage of MASH. The results from the pivotal MAESTRO-NASH OUTCOMES trial, expected in 2027, could lead to a label expansion, significantly broadening the addressable patient population and establishing Rezdiffra as one of the few MASH drugs with hepatic outcomes data.
- Development and Launch of Rezdiffra-Based Combination Therapies: Madrigal is strategically expanding its pipeline through in-licensing deals for additional MASH therapeutics, including an oral GLP-1 receptor agonist (MGL-2086) and a Phase 2 oral DGAT-2 inhibitor (ervogastat). The company's focus is on developing combination therapies, anchored by Rezdiffra, to address diverse patient subtypes and genetic drivers of MASH. The oral GLP-1 combination program is slated to begin in the first half of 2026, offering potential for new revenue streams through enhanced treatment options.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Issuance
- Madrigal Pharmaceuticals' shares outstanding increased by 5.46% in 2025, 13.83% in 2024, and 9.05% in 2023, reflecting ongoing share issuances.
- The company registered 300,000 shares of common stock for issuance under its 2025 Inducement Stock Plan to grant equity awards to new hires.
- Equity awards, including options and restricted stock units, were granted to new non-executive employees in March 2026 and to the new Chief Accounting Officer in January 2026 under the 2025 Inducement Plan.
Inbound Investments
- In July 2025, Madrigal entered into a senior secured credit facility with funds managed by Blue Owl Capital, providing access to up to $500 million. An initial term loan of $350 million was funded at closing, with a portion used to repay a prior loan facility.
Outbound Investments
- On July 30, 2025, Madrigal signed an exclusive global license agreement with CSPC Pharmaceutical Group for SYH2086, an oral GLP-1 receptor agonist, which included an upfront payment of $120 million and potential milestone payments up to $2 billion.
- In February 2026, the company licensed global rights to six preclinical siRNA programs, involving an upfront payment of $60 million.
- Madrigal expanded its pipeline by licensing a Phase 2 oral DGAT-2 inhibitor, ervogastat, aiming to develop combination therapies with Rezdiffra.
Capital Expenditures
- Madrigal Pharmaceuticals' capital expenditures for the full year 2025 were approximately $467K.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to MDGL.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04302026 | GEHC | GE HealthCare Technologies | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04302026 | IQV | IQVIA | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04302026 | UHS | Universal Health Services | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04302026 | ABT | Abbott Laboratories | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04302026 | ZBIO | Zenas BioPharma | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 136.30 |
| Mkt Cap | 15.7 |
| Rev LTM | 1,132 |
| Op Inc LTM | -314 |
| FCF LTM | -272 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -176 |
| CFO LTM | -268 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -176 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 129.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 65.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 9.7% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 10.4% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -3.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 6.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 36.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 2.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 5.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 33.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 31.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 15.7 |
| P/S | 9.8 |
| P/Op Inc | -7.4 |
| P/EBIT | -7.4 |
| P/E | -7.9 |
| P/CFO | -11.0 |
| Total Yield | -2.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -4.5% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 9.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 12.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 43.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 76.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -13.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 2.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 5.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 5.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -2.3% |
FDA Approved Drugs Data
Expand for More| Post-Approval Fwd Returns | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDA App # | Brand Name | Generic Name | Dosage Form | FDA Approval | 3M Rtn | 6M Rtn | 1Y Rtn | 2Y Rtn | Total Rtn |
| NDA217785 | REZDIFFRA | resmetirom | tablet | 3142024 | 13.7% | -3.6% | 43.0% | 82.6% | 121.6% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $539.73 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 12.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 02/06/2007 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -10.5% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $487.43 | $471.89 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 10.7% | 14.4% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 46.7% | 45.1% |
| Downside Capture | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| Upside Capture | 94.23 | 99.15 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 14.3% | 17.2% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.99 | 0.11 | 0.45 | 0.41 | 0.57 | 0.77 |
| Up Beta | 1.04 | 0.78 | 0.75 | 1.04 | 0.89 | 0.72 |
| Down Beta | -1.37 | -1.66 | -1.60 | -1.22 | -0.40 | 0.64 |
| Up Capture | 46% | 78% | 92% | 93% | 87% | 66% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 23 | 32 | 61 | 121 | 368 |
| Down Capture | 279% | -33% | 86% | 54% | 68% | 95% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 20 | 32 | 64 | 130 | 382 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MDGL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MDGL | 83.3% | 45.1% | 1.48 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 7.2% | 15.7% | 0.25 | 21.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 28.5% | 12.5% | 1.78 | 16.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 40.6% | 27.2% | 1.23 | 2.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 50.9% | 18.0% | 2.20 | -4.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.8% | 13.5% | 0.65 | 18.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -14.2% | 42.1% | -0.25 | 6.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MDGL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MDGL | 32.4% | 133.2% | 0.52 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 5.3% | 14.6% | 0.19 | 9.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.7% | 17.1% | 0.58 | 10.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.0% | 17.9% | 0.96 | 1.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 13.9% | 19.1% | 0.60 | 0.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.5% | 18.8% | 0.09 | 7.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 8.7% | 56.1% | 0.37 | 6.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MDGL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MDGL | 44.9% | 117.5% | 0.63 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 9.3% | 16.5% | 0.45 | 12.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 13.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.7% | 16.0% | 0.71 | 0.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.5% | 17.7% | 0.45 | 4.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 7.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 68.4% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 6.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/6/2026 | 7.4% | ||
| 2/19/2026 | -11.1% | -11.5% | -7.6% |
| 11/4/2025 | 7.8% | 20.3% | 42.2% |
| 8/5/2025 | 8.6% | 12.0% | 39.5% |
| 5/1/2025 | -1.9% | -10.5% | -17.6% |
| 1/13/2025 | -10.4% | -13.4% | -2.1% |
| 10/31/2024 | 20.1% | 56.6% | 52.0% |
| 8/7/2024 | -12.2% | -8.6% | -7.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 11 | 12 |
| # Negative | 12 | 12 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 6.6% | 11.5% | 13.6% |
| Median Negative | -5.2% | -7.3% | -10.5% |
| Max Positive | 20.1% | 56.6% | 60.1% |
| Max Negative | -12.2% | -13.4% | -22.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/19/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/26/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/06/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/19/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 MGL-2086 Clinic Entry | |||||||
| 2027 MAESTRO-NASH OUTCOMES Topline Data | |||||||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dier, Mardi | EVP and CFO | Direct | Sell | 3062026 | 430.87 | 1,982 | 853,993 | 5,381,618 | Form |
| 2 | Sibold, William John | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 3062026 | 431.94 | 1,663 | 718,316 | 69,900,418 | Form |
| 3 | Kelley, Shannon T | General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 3062026 | 431.94 | 360 | 155,498 | 5,242,888 | Form |
| 4 | Huntsman, Carole | Chief Commercial Officer | Direct | Sell | 3062026 | 431.94 | 419 | 180,983 | 5,482,182 | Form |
| 5 | Taub, Rebecca | Direct | Sell | 3062026 | 431.94 | 491 | 212,083 | 195,328,883 | Form |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.