Miller Industries (MLR)
Market Price (7/26/2026): $51.45 | Market Cap: $585.9 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automotive Parts & Equipment
Miller Industries (MLR)
Market Price (7/26/2026): $51.45Market Cap: $585.9 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Automotive Parts & Equipment
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 19% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 29% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight. Themes include Freight Technology. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.9% Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -49%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -16% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -34%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -20% Key risksMLR key risks include [1] production disruptions stemming from its dependence on outside suppliers for critical chassis and components, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 19% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 29% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight. Themes include Freight Technology. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.9% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -49%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -16% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -34%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -20% |
| Key risksMLR key risks include [1] production disruptions stemming from its dependence on outside suppliers for critical chassis and components, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Miller Industries (MLR) stock has gained about 15% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Reaffirmed Strong Full-Year Fiscal 2026 Guidance Despite Q1 Fiscal 2026 Miss.
Despite reporting lower-than-expected diluted earnings per share of $0.05 and a 19.8% year-over-year revenue decrease to $180.9 million in its Q1 fiscal 2026 results (for the quarter ended March 31, 2026), Miller Industries reaffirmed its full-year fiscal 2026 revenue guidance of $850 million to $900 million. Management also expects earnings per share to align with fiscal year 2025 results and projects significant earnings growth of 56.84% in the next year (from $1.90 to $2.98 per share), coupled with an anticipated 16% annual revenue growth over the subsequent three years, which likely bolstered investor confidence.
2. Strategic Capacity Expansion and Future Military Commitments.
Miller Industries detailed plans for a substantial ~$100 million expansion of its Ooltewah facility, intended to enhance manufacturing capacity and support growing demand. Furthermore, the company highlighted over $150 million in military commitments at the onset of fiscal 2026, with production slated to commence in fiscal 2027 and the majority of associated revenue expected in fiscal years 2028-2029, signaling robust multi-year growth opportunities.
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Miller Industries (MLR) stock has gained about 15% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Reaffirmed Strong Full-Year Fiscal 2026 Guidance Despite Q1 Fiscal 2026 Miss.
Despite reporting lower-than-expected diluted earnings per share of $0.05 and a 19.8% year-over-year revenue decrease to $180.9 million in its Q1 fiscal 2026 results (for the quarter ended March 31, 2026), Miller Industries reaffirmed its full-year fiscal 2026 revenue guidance of $850 million to $900 million. Management also expects earnings per share to align with fiscal year 2025 results and projects significant earnings growth of 56.84% in the next year (from $1.90 to $2.98 per share), coupled with an anticipated 16% annual revenue growth over the subsequent three years, which likely bolstered investor confidence.
2. Strategic Capacity Expansion and Future Military Commitments.
Miller Industries detailed plans for a substantial ~$100 million expansion of its Ooltewah facility, intended to enhance manufacturing capacity and support growing demand. Furthermore, the company highlighted over $150 million in military commitments at the onset of fiscal 2026, with production slated to commence in fiscal 2027 and the majority of associated revenue expected in fiscal years 2028-2029, signaling robust multi-year growth opportunities.
3. Proactive Pricing Strategy to Mitigate Cost Pressures.
To counteract ongoing pricing pressures and better align with the current cost environment, Miller Industries announced a 3% price increase across all manufactured products, effective August 1, 2026. This strategic move demonstrates management's commitment to protecting profit margins and supporting continued investment in manufacturing, despite macroeconomic factors such as higher diesel prices impacting retail demand and leading to a pause in North American production increases.
4. Sequential Revenue Growth and Anticipated Second-Half Fiscal 2026 Performance.
Despite year-over-year revenue declines, Miller Industries achieved sequential revenue growth in Q1 fiscal 2026, driven by increased production in early 2026. Management expressed optimism that production volumes and revenue would be increasingly weighted towards the second half of fiscal 2026, projecting that quarterly revenue could approach $250 million by that period. This expectation of accelerated performance in the latter half of the fiscal year likely contributed to the positive stock movement.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 13.3% change in MLR stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/25/2026 was primarily driven by a 67.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7252026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 45.35 | 51.39 | 13.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 790 | 745 | -5.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 2.9% | 2.1% | -28.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 22.5 | 37.7 | 67.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 11 | 11 | 0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 13.3% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/25/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MLR | 13.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 13.6% | 31.6% |
| Sector (XLY) | 0.4% | 31.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 38.8% change in MLR stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/25/2026 was primarily driven by a 168.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7252026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 37.03 | 51.39 | 38.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 840 | 745 | -11.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.6% | 2.1% | -42.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 14.1 | 37.7 | 168.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 11 | 11 | 0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 38.8% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/25/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MLR | 38.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.7% | 27.7% |
| Sector (XLY) | -8.2% | 33.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 17.8% change in MLR stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/25/2026 was primarily driven by a 312.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7252026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 43.61 | 51.39 | 17.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,133 | 745 | -34.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 4.8% | 2.1% | -56.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 9.2 | 37.7 | 312.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 11 | 11 | 0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 17.8% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/25/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MLR | 17.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 20.6% | 30.6% |
| Sector (XLY) | 1.3% | 33.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 52.3% change in MLR stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/25/2026 was primarily driven by a 169.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302023 | 7252026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 33.73 | 51.39 | 52.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 915 | 745 | -18.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.0% | 2.1% | -30.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 14.0 | 37.7 | 169.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 11 | 11 | 0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 52.3% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/25/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MLR | 52.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 72.6% | 45.6% |
| Sector (XLY) | 31.8% | 42.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MLR Return | -11% | -18% | 62% | 57% | -42% | 38% | 50% |
| Peers Return | 16% | -0% | 28% | -10% | 8% | 26% | 82% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 97% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MLR Win Rate | 33% | 25% | 67% | 58% | 25% | 86% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 42% | 53% | 40% | 48% | 57% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 43% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MLR Max Drawdown | -32% | -37% | -12% | -17% | -48% | -10% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -25% | -34% | -27% | -28% | -35% | -29% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: OSK, FSS, PLOW, ALG, WNC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/24/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MLR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -34.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 53.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 165 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -23.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 245 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -16.2% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.3% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 14 days | 105 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -11.4% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.8% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 15 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -11.6% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.2% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 7 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -14.5% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 16.9% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 125 days |
In The Past
Miller Industries's stock fell 0.0% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 0.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | MLR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -34.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 53.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 165 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -23.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 245 days | 140 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -65.9% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 193.6% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 560 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -41.7% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 71.4% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2742 days | 47 days |
In The Past
Miller Industries's stock fell 0.0% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 0.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Miller Industries (MLR)
Miller Industries (MLR) is a specialized manufacturer and seller of towing and recovery equipment. The company provides the essential machinery used to move disabled vehicles, transport new cars, and relocate various types of equipment across multiple industries and regions.
The company's main product lines include wreckers, which are critical for recovering and towing disabled vehicles and other heavy equipment. Miller Industries also produces car carriers, specialized flatbed vehicles equipped with hydraulic tilt mechanisms, used for transporting both new and disabled vehicles. Furthermore, it manufactures transport trailers designed for moving vehicles for auto auctions, car dealerships, and leasing companies. These products are marketed under several recognized brands, including Century, Holmes, Vulcan, and Chevron.
Miller Industries distributes its products globally through a network of independent distributors across the United States, Canada, Mexico, Europe, the Pacific Rim, the Middle East, South America, and Africa. The company also serves governmental entities by supplying its equipment through prime contractors, catering to a broad spectrum of public and private sector clients worldwide.
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Here are 1-2 brief analogies for Miller Industries (MLR):
The Caterpillar of the towing and recovery industry.
The Oshkosh of specialized vehicle recovery and transport equipment.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Wreckers: Equipment used to recover and tow disabled vehicles and other machinery.
- Car Carriers: Specialized flatbed vehicles featuring hydraulic tilt mechanisms for transporting new or disabled vehicles and equipment.
- Transport Trailers: Trailers designed for moving various vehicles for auctions, dealerships, and leasing companies.
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Based on the provided information, Miller Industries (MLR) sells primarily to other companies rather than individuals. The major customers are not listed as specific named public companies, but rather described by their role in the distribution channel:
- Independent distributors that then sell to end-users such as towing companies, auto auctions, car dealerships, and leasing companies.
- Prime contractors that supply governmental entities, including various municipal, state, and federal agencies.
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Key Risks for Miller Industries (MLR):
- Disruptive Impact of Autonomous Vehicles: The widespread adoption of autonomous vehicles has the potential to significantly reduce traffic accidents and breakdowns over the long term. As Miller Industries manufactures towing and recovery equipment used for disabled and damaged vehicles, a substantial decline in such incidents could fundamentally reduce demand for their core products.
- Sensitivity to Economic Cycles: As a manufacturer of capital equipment such as wreckers, car carriers, and transport trailers, Miller Industries' sales are highly dependent on the capital expenditure decisions of its customers, including independent distributors, auto dealerships, and leasing companies. During economic downturns or periods of uncertainty, these customers may defer or reduce purchases of new equipment, leading to decreased sales and profitability.
- Evolving Automotive Technology (e.g., Electric Vehicles): The rapid evolution of automotive technology, particularly the increasing prevalence of electric vehicles (EVs), presents both challenges and opportunities. EVs often have different weight characteristics, battery configurations, and recovery protocols compared to traditional internal combustion engine vehicles. If Miller Industries cannot adapt its product lines quickly and cost-effectively to meet the specialized needs for towing and recovering these new vehicle types, it could face risks of product obsolescence or increased competition.
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AI Analysis | Feedback
The addressable markets for Miller Industries' main products and services are as follows:
- Towing and Recovery Equipment (including Wreckers): The global vehicle towing equipment market size was valued at approximately USD 5.87 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 9.2 billion by 2035, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.1% during the forecast period. This market encompasses heavy-duty tow trucks, flatbed towing equipment, and wheel lifts. North America currently dominates this market, while Asia-Pacific is expected to show significant growth. More specifically, the global wrecker market size was valued at approximately USD 3.5 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach around USD 5.8 billion by 2032. North America holds the largest share of the global wrecker market.
- Car Carriers: The global car carrier market size was valued at approximately USD 13.2 billion in 2022 and is estimated to reach USD 26.9 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 7.5% from 2023 to 2032. This market is driven by increasing vehicle production and the demand for efficient transportation solutions.
- Transport Trailers (Automotive Trailers): The global automotive trailer market size was valued at USD 25.21 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 35.86 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 3.95%. Asia-Pacific is the largest regional market for automotive trailers.
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For Miller Industries (MLR), several key drivers are expected to contribute to future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years:
- Increased Demand and Normalized Distributor Inventory: The company anticipates continued strong demand for its towing and recovery equipment across all geographies. This is supported by normalized distributor inventory levels, leading to steadier retail demand and improved sales order entry.
- Global Military Programs and Contracts: Miller Industries expects significant growth opportunities from a resurgence in military contracts, which are projected to return to pre-COVID levels in 2026-2027. The company has a robust pipeline of global military requests for quotations (RFQs) and has already secured over $150 million in military commitments.
- International Market Expansion: Consistent demand from Europe and growing demand in other international markets such as Australia, Japan, Mexico, and Indonesia are expected to drive revenue. The acquisition of Omars also contributes to the company's European strategy.
- Improved Chassis Availability and Supply Chain Efficiencies: Increases in chassis shipments and overall supply chain improvements have enabled higher production volumes. This allows Miller Industries to better meet the strong customer demand for its products.
- Manufacturing Capacity Expansion: Miller Industries is undertaking a significant expansion project, adding over 200,000 square feet to its Ooltewah, Tennessee facility with an estimated investment of $100 million. This expansion is designed to unlock new capacity, streamline heavy-duty workflow, and enhance manufacturing efficiencies, supporting increased production for global military and export markets, as well as its North American customer base.
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Share Repurchases
- Miller Industries instituted a $25 million share repurchase program early in 2024.
- Approximately $2.2 million of stock was repurchased during the fourth quarter of 2025.
- In 2025, the company returned approximately $15.1 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.
Share Issuance
- The number of common shares outstanding was 11,439,292 as of December 31, 2024, and 11,371,730 as of December 31, 2025.
Outbound Investments
- During fiscal 2023, the Company acquired substantially all of the assets and assumed certain liabilities of Southern Hydraulic Cylinder, Inc., to strengthen its supply chain.
- In December 2025, Miller Industries completed the acquisition of Omars—S.p.A., an Italian manufacturer of light-duty, medium-duty, and heavy-duty recovery vehicles and car carriers, which is expected to expand its European footprint and contribute approximately $27 million in annual revenue.
- The company is investing €8 million in expanding production at its Jige facility in France, aiming to double its heavy-duty integration capacity by mid-2027.
Capital Expenditures
- Since 2017, Miller Industries has invested over $100 million in property, plant, and equipment projects to increase manufacturing production capacity, install robotics, and implement advanced technologies.
- The company approved a new 200,000+ square foot manufacturing facility at its Ooltewah, Tennessee headquarters, with an estimated cost of approximately $100 million, expected to be production-ready in late 2027 to enhance North American production capacity and support European operations and military production.
- Capital expenditures have been focused on automation and productivity improvements within its facilities.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 85.14 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.5 |
| Rev LTM | 1,548 |
| Op Inc LTM | 115 |
| FCF LTM | 110 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 97 |
| CFO LTM | 133 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 140 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 0.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.8% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 13.1% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 16.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 8.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.7% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Towing and recovery equipment | 790 | 1,258 | 1,153 | 848 | 717 |
| Total | 790 | 1,258 | 1,153 | 848 | 717 |
| $ Mil | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Towing Services | -0 | -3 | -2 | -4 |
| Dist | -1 | -0 | -1 | |
| Towing and Recovery Equipment | 11 | |||
| Total | -1 | -3 | -3 | 7 |
| $ Mil | 2025 |
|---|---|
| Towing and recovery equipment | 23 |
| Total | 23 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Towing and recovery equipment | 590 | 667 | ||
| Towing Services | 96 | 112 | ||
| Towing and Recovery Equipment | 249 | 271 | ||
| Total | 590 | 667 | 345 | 383 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $51.39 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 08/02/1994 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -2.9% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $48.87 | $43.49 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 5.1% | 18.2% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 27.1% | 29.2% |
| Downside Capture | 81.87 | 78.29 |
| Upside Capture | 106.85 | 85.35 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 34.0% | 30.5% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.60 | 0.62 | 0.56 | 0.55 | 0.72 | 0.97 |
| Up Beta | -0.58 | -0.27 | 0.18 | 0.30 | 0.58 | 0.83 |
| Down Beta | 1.62 | 1.17 | 1.19 | 1.03 | 0.59 | 0.89 |
| Up Capture | 105% | 80% | 60% | 75% | 75% | 119% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 21 | 33 | 66 | 124 | 385 |
| Down Capture | 19% | 53% | 53% | 14% | 87% | 103% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 20 | 30 | 58 | 127 | 362 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MLR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLR | 21.9% | 29.3% | 0.68 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | -2.9% | 19.3% | -0.27 | 32.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 17.6% | 12.7% | 1.00 | 30.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.2% | 28.1% | 0.61 | 9.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 34.7% | 19.1% | 1.42 | -10.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.8% | 14.1% | 0.69 | 32.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -46.2% | 42.9% | -1.32 | 15.1% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MLR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLR | 8.5% | 30.6% | 0.30 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 5.0% | 24.0% | 0.17 | 39.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.58 | 43.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.0% | 18.4% | 0.75 | 7.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.6% | 19.5% | 0.38 | 7.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.0% | 18.9% | 0.06 | 38.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 15.3% | 53.4% | 0.47 | 19.7% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MLR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLR | 11.5% | 30.8% | 0.42 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 11.5% | 22.1% | 0.48 | 41.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 45.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.3% | 16.1% | 0.57 | 2.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.2% | 17.9% | 0.32 | 14.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 38.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.1% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 14.5% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/9/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/6/2026 | -2.4% | -3.9% | -2.4% |
| 3/4/2026 | 6.4% | -1.6% | 2.1% |
| 11/5/2025 | -4.4% | -5.1% | -7.2% |
| 8/6/2025 | -4.3% | 4.7% | 0.6% |
| 5/7/2025 | 6.6% | 8.7% | 8.4% |
| 3/6/2025 | -15.3% | -17.0% | -26.0% |
| 11/12/2024 | -10.4% | -11.3% | -6.2% |
| 8/7/2024 | -2.6% | -8.3% | -6.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 12 | 14 |
| # Negative | 17 | 12 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.6% |
| Median Negative | -2.6% | -4.8% | -6.8% |
| Max Positive | 10.8% | 11.4% | 17.6% |
| Max Negative | -15.3% | -17.0% | -26.0% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/6/2026 | -2.4% | -3.9% | -2.4% |
| 3/4/2026 | 6.4% | -1.6% | 2.1% |
| 11/5/2025 | -4.4% | -5.1% | -7.2% |
| 8/6/2025 | -4.3% | 4.7% | 0.6% |
| 5/7/2025 | 6.6% | 8.7% | 8.4% |
| 3/6/2025 | -15.3% | -17.0% | -26.0% |
| 11/12/2024 | -10.4% | -11.3% | -6.2% |
| 8/7/2024 | -2.6% | -8.3% | -6.3% |
| 5/8/2024 | 4.9% | 9.8% | 3.9% |
| 3/6/2024 | 10.8% | 6.8% | 17.6% |
| 11/8/2023 | 4.9% | 5.6% | 8.5% |
| 8/9/2023 | -1.0% | -0.7% | 1.2% |
| 5/3/2023 | -1.8% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| 3/9/2023 | 1.1% | 11.4% | 12.5% |
| 11/9/2022 | 7.4% | 4.9% | 6.7% |
| 8/3/2022 | -4.8% | -2.8% | -2.1% |
| 5/4/2022 | -2.5% | -8.9% | -8.9% |
| 3/9/2022 | -3.6% | -4.5% | -11.5% |
| 11/3/2021 | -3.2% | -3.1% | -11.7% |
| 8/4/2021 | -0.2% | 4.3% | 0.3% |
| 5/5/2021 | -1.4% | -5.6% | -5.2% |
| 3/3/2021 | -2.8% | 6.1% | 10.4% |
| 11/4/2020 | -0.3% | 3.9% | 11.2% |
| 8/5/2020 | -0.6% | 6.5% | 9.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 12 | 14 |
| # Negative | 17 | 12 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.6% |
| Median Negative | -2.6% | -4.8% | -6.8% |
| Max Positive | 10.8% | 11.4% | 17.6% |
| Max Negative | -15.3% | -17.0% | -26.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/04/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/05/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/06/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/08/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/04/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/05/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/06/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/08/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/09/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/03/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 03/03/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/04/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 03/04/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/06/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 08/07/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/12/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/6/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Revenue | 250.00 Mil | ||||||
| Q4 2026 Revenue | 250.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2026 Revenue | 850.00 Mil | 875.00 Mil | 900.00 Mil | Affirmed | Guidance: 875.00 Mil for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Gross Margin | 13.1% | 13.5% | 13.9% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 13.5% for 2026 | |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/4/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 850.00 Mil | 875.00 Mil | 900.00 Mil | 12.9% | Higher New | Guidance: 775.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Gross Margin | 13.5% | ||||||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/5/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Revenue | 750.00 Mil | 775.00 Mil | 800.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 775.00 Mil for 2025 | |
Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Automotive Parts & Equipment Resources |
| AftermarketNews |
| Tire Review |
| Motor Age |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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