Alamo (ALG)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $165.59 | Market Cap: $2.0 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment
Alamo (ALG)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $165.59Market Cap: $2.0 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.7%, FCF Yield is 6.5% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -58%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -57% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.7% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 27% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Infrastructure, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Waste Management Solutions, and Resource Efficiency Solutions. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.7%, FCF Yield is 6.5% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 27% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Infrastructure, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Waste Management Solutions, and Resource Efficiency Solutions. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -58%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -57% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.7% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ALG Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining why Alamo Group Inc. (ALG) stock moved approximately -21% from August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025:
1. Missed Q3 2025 Earnings Per Share Estimates. Alamo Group Inc. reported adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.34 for the third quarter of 2025, falling short of analysts' consensus estimates ranging from $2.61 to $2.66. This negative surprise, exceeding an 11% miss, prompted a negative market reaction with the stock declining by 4.12% on November 7, 2025.
2. Continued Weakness in the Vegetation Management Division. The company's Vegetation Management Division experienced a 9.0% decrease in net sales during Q3 2025, attributed to ongoing softness in its end markets. Management also highlighted operational challenges from facility consolidation and persistent market weakness that negatively impacted the division's margins and overall profitability.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ALG Return | 10% | 7% | -3% | 49% | -11% | -10% | 37% |
| Peers Return | 18% | 16% | 7% | 37% | 29% | 24% | 222% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ALG Win Rate | 58% | 58% | 33% | 67% | 33% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 55% | 45% | 53% | 62% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ALG Max Drawdown | -40% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -22% | -15% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -40% | -4% | -23% | -10% | -4% | -25% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CAT, FSS, GBX, CMI, PCAR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ALG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -33.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 253 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -42.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 73.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 234 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -38.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 261 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -65.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 188.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 632 days | 1480 days |
Compare to CAT, FSS, GBX, CMI, PCAR
In The Past
Alamo's stock fell -33.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/7/2021. A -33.4% loss requires a 50.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ALG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.5% | 9.5% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03312020 | ALG | Alamo | Dip Buy | DB | Growth | FCF YieldDip Buy with Growth and High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with growth, and significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) | 20.2% | 76.7% | -12.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.5% | 9.5% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03312020 | ALG | Alamo | Dip Buy | DB | Growth | FCF YieldDip Buy with Growth and High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with growth, and significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) | 20.2% | 76.7% | -12.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Alamo
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 138.81 |
| Mkt Cap | 31.9 |
| Rev LTM | 16,386 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,855 |
| FCF LTM | 1,249 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 884 |
| CFO LTM | 1,887 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,504 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -3.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | -1.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 11.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 12.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 11.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 10.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 31.9 |
| P/S | 1.7 |
| P/EBIT | 14.5 |
| P/E | 19.5 |
| P/CFO | 14.3 |
| Total Yield | 6.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.6% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 10.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 5.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 14.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 3.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 101.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 9.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -1.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -0.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -7.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 26.8% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7312024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2222024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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