Federal Signal (FSS)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $111.25 | Market Cap: $6.8 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment
Federal Signal (FSS)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $111.25Market Cap: $6.8 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 38% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Infrastructure, and Water Infrastructure. Themes include Waste Management Solutions, Wastewater Management, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 38% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Infrastructure, and Water Infrastructure. Themes include Waste Management Solutions, Wastewater Management, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
FSS Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Federal Signal (FSS) experienced a stock decline of -9.2% between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025. This movement occurred despite the company reporting strong third-quarter results and raising its full-year outlook for 2025. Key factors contributing to the stock's performance during this period include:
1. Negative Market Reaction to Q3 Earnings Despite Beat: Federal Signal reported strong Q3 CY2025 results, with revenue and non-GAAP profit exceeding Wall Street expectations. Net sales were up 17% year-on-year to $555 million, and adjusted EPS of $1.14 surpassed analyst estimates of $1.08. Despite these positive figures, the market reaction was notably negative, and shares slid in pre-market trading.
2. Decline in Backlog: While the company saw strong order intake in its Safety and Security Systems Group and robust demand for aftermarket parts and services, its consolidated backlog at September 30, 2025, declined 4% year-over-year to $992 million, compared to $1.03 billion in the prior-year quarter. This decline was largely attributed to the planned phase-out of third-party refuse trucks, a strategic shift acknowledged by management to impact order trends for several quarters.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| FSS Return | 4% | 32% | 8% | 66% | 21% | 22% | 264% |
| Peers Return | 5% | 26% | 5% | 33% | 20% | 24% | 177% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| FSS Win Rate | 50% | 58% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 58% | 43% | 55% | 55% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| FSS Max Drawdown | -26% | -2% | -26% | 0% | -6% | -25% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -49% | -7% | -26% | -12% | -13% | -26% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PCAR, OSK, REVG, WNC, CAT. See FSS Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | FSS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -33.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 216 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -31.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 289 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -33.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 120 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -77.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 349.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2433 days | 1480 days |
Compare to PCAR, OSK, REVG, WNC, CAT
In The Past
Federal Signal's stock fell -33.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/12/2021. A -33.3% loss requires a 49.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to FSS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Federal Signal
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 110.05 |
| Mkt Cap | 7.5 |
| Rev LTM | 6,364 |
| Op Inc LTM | 664 |
| FCF LTM | 487 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 245 |
| CFO LTM | 611 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 403 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -4.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | -1.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 13.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 11.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 9.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 7.5 |
| P/S | 1.4 |
| P/EBIT | 14.7 |
| P/E | 19.3 |
| P/CFO | 10.4 |
| Total Yield | 8.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.8% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 7.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -4.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 22.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 15.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 102.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 7.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -13.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 7.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 1.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 35.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7302025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4302025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2262025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7252024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4302024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2272024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5022023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3012023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7272022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5022022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3012022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |