Tearsheet

Federal Signal (FSS)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $111.25 | Market Cap: $6.8 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment

Federal Signal (FSS)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $111.25
Market Cap: $6.8 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%
 
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 38%
 
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable Infrastructure, and Water Infrastructure. Themes include Waste Management Solutions, Wastewater Management, Show more.
 
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 38%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable Infrastructure, and Water Infrastructure. Themes include Waste Management Solutions, Wastewater Management, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

FSS Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Federal Signal (FSS) experienced a stock decline of -9.2% between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025. This movement occurred despite the company reporting strong third-quarter results and raising its full-year outlook for 2025. Key factors contributing to the stock's performance during this period include:

1. Negative Market Reaction to Q3 Earnings Despite Beat: Federal Signal reported strong Q3 CY2025 results, with revenue and non-GAAP profit exceeding Wall Street expectations. Net sales were up 17% year-on-year to $555 million, and adjusted EPS of $1.14 surpassed analyst estimates of $1.08. Despite these positive figures, the market reaction was notably negative, and shares slid in pre-market trading.

2. Decline in Backlog: While the company saw strong order intake in its Safety and Security Systems Group and robust demand for aftermarket parts and services, its consolidated backlog at September 30, 2025, declined 4% year-over-year to $992 million, compared to $1.03 billion in the prior-year quarter. This decline was largely attributed to the planned phase-out of third-party refuse trucks, a strategic shift acknowledged by management to impact order trends for several quarters.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
FSS Return4%32%8%66%21%22%264%
Peers Return5%26%5%33%20%24%177%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
FSS Win Rate50%58%50%50%50%50% 
Peers Win Rate57%58%43%55%55%56% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
FSS Max Drawdown-26%-2%-26%0%-6%-25% 
Peers Max Drawdown-49%-7%-26%-12%-13%-26% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PCAR, OSK, REVG, WNC, CAT. See FSS Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventFSSS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-33.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven49.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven216 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-31.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven45.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven289 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-33.0%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven49.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven120 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-77.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven349.1%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven2433 days1480 days

Compare to PCAR, OSK, REVG, WNC, CAT


In The Past

Federal Signal's stock fell -33.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/12/2021. A -33.3% loss requires a 49.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Federal Signal (FSS)

Better Bets than Federal Signal (FSS)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to FSS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Federal Signal

Peers to compare with:

Financials

FSSPCAROSKREVGWNCCATMedian
NameFederal .PACCAR Oshkosh REV Wabash N.Caterpil. 
Mkt Price111.55108.54128.1556.539.06591.49110.05
Mkt Cap6.857.18.22.70.0277.87.5
Rev LTM2,05529,53210,3322,3971,63863,1396,364
Op Inc LTM3273,36595717237111,510664
FCF LTM2203,1947552001087,740487
FCF 3Y Avg1753,005316931188,349245
CFO LTM2484,71797423315011,373611
CFO 3Y Avg2084,45059912518611,517403

Growth & Margins

FSSPCAROSKREVGWNCCATMedian
NameFederal .PACCAR Oshkosh REV Wabash N.Caterpil. 
Rev Chg LTM11.8%-15.2%-2.5%-3.2%-22.9%-4.9%-4.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg15.3%3.8%9.9%1.7%-9.8%5.8%4.8%
Rev Chg Q17.0%-19.0%-1.9%11.3%-17.8%-0.7%-1.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM4.1%-5.0%-0.5%2.8%-4.8%-0.2%-0.3%
Op Mgn LTM15.9%11.4%9.3%7.2%22.6%18.2%13.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg14.5%14.4%9.2%4.7%6.8%18.8%11.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.3%-1.0%-0.0%0.7%29.6%-0.9%0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM12.1%16.0%9.4%9.7%9.2%18.0%10.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg11.1%13.7%6.0%5.1%8.7%17.8%9.9%
FCF/Rev LTM10.7%10.8%7.3%8.3%6.6%12.3%9.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg9.3%9.2%3.1%3.8%5.6%12.9%7.4%

Valuation

FSSPCAROSKREVGWNCCATMedian
NameFederal .PACCAR Oshkosh REV Wabash N.Caterpil. 
Mkt Cap6.857.18.22.70.0277.87.5
P/S3.51.80.81.00.02.91.4
P/EBIT22.515.48.514.60.014.914.7
P/E30.619.212.521.40.019.319.3
P/CFO29.111.08.59.90.016.010.4
Total Yield3.7%9.6%9.6%5.3%67,757.1%6.7%8.1%
Dividend Yield0.5%4.4%1.5%0.6%3,467.9%1.5%1.5%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg3.1%6.1%4.1%6.2%12,421.5%5.4%5.8%
D/E0.00.30.10.01,078.50.20.2
Net D/E0.00.10.10.0851.50.20.1

Returns

FSSPCAROSKREVGWNCCATMedian
NameFederal .PACCAR Oshkosh REV Wabash N.Caterpil. 
1M Rtn-3.1%11.7%6.1%8.0%14.4%3.7%7.1%
3M Rtn-8.5%13.2%-6.1%-3.0%-17.1%42.9%-4.5%
6M Rtn13.9%18.0%26.5%32.0%-0.0%70.4%22.2%
12M Rtn14.1%-3.2%15.8%79.6%-52.6%50.4%15.0%
3Y Rtn129.8%74.7%48.1%393.8%-63.2%163.6%102.3%
1M Excs Rtn-3.1%11.8%6.1%8.1%14.4%3.7%7.1%
3M Excs Rtn-16.0%5.5%-12.9%-13.4%-24.7%35.8%-13.1%
6M Excs Rtn-0.9%3.3%11.7%17.2%-14.7%55.7%7.5%
12M Excs Rtn1.6%-16.8%1.2%69.8%-66.6%34.3%1.4%
3Y Excs Rtn65.8%5.5%-24.1%331.9%-135.1%95.2%35.7%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Environmental Solutions1,2911,2061,098927908
Safety and Security Systems288279227226223
Corporate and eliminations4239415634
Total assets of discontinued operations   00
Total1,6201,5241,3661,2091,166


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity4,006,137
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202511.5%
Average Daily Volume425,871
Days-to-Cover Short Interest9.41
Basic Shares Quantity60,700,000
Short % of Basic Shares6.6%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251030202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025730202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025430202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024226202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241031202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024725202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024430202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023227202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023727202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023502202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022301202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022727202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022502202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021301202210-K 12/31/2021