Roku (ROKU)
Market Price (4/23/2026): $117.92 | Market Cap: $17.5 BilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Movies & Entertainment
Roku (ROKU)
Market Price (4/23/2026): $117.92Market Cap: $17.5 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Movies & Entertainment
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -10% Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 47% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Content & Streaming, and Digital Advertising. Themes include Video Streaming, and Ad-Tech Platforms. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.3%, Dist 3Y High is -0.3% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -5.6 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.1% Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 183x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 36x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 198x Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.5% Key risksROKU key risks include [1] intense competition from tech giants threatening its market share, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -10% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 47% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Content & Streaming, and Digital Advertising. Themes include Video Streaming, and Ad-Tech Platforms. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.3%, Dist 3Y High is -0.3% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -5.6 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.1% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 183x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 36x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 198x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.5% |
| Key risksROKU key risks include [1] intense competition from tech giants threatening its market share, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Roku's robust Q4 2025 financial performance significantly exceeded market expectations and was coupled with an optimistic outlook.
The company reported GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of $0.53, nearly double the consensus estimate of $0.28, representing an 88.8% beat. Revenue reached $1.39 billion, surpassing analysts' projections of $1.35 billion by 3%. A key driver was platform revenue, which increased by 18% year-over-year to $1.224 billion. Furthermore, Roku provided encouraging guidance for Q1 2026, projecting revenue of $1.2 billion, 3% above analyst estimates, and full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $635 million, exceeding previous estimates of $581 million. This strong report led to a 7.5% jump in the stock immediately after the announcement.
2. Roku achieved a significant milestone by surpassing 100 million streaming households globally in April 2026.
This achievement underscores the company's expanding user base and solidifies its leadership position in the streaming market. This scale enhances Roku's market share and growth potential, making its platform more attractive to advertisers.
Show more
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 9.1% change in ROKU stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 5.0% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 108.49 | 118.34 | 9.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,543 | 4,737 | 4.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 3.5 | 3.7 | 5.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 147 | 148 | -0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 9.1% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ROKU | 9.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.4% | 54.6% |
| Sector (XLC) | 0.1% | 62.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 18.2% change in ROKU stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 10.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 100.13 | 118.34 | 18.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,395 | 4,737 | 7.8% |
| P/S Multiple | 3.3 | 3.7 | 10.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 147 | 148 | -0.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 18.2% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ROKU | 18.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | -2.9% | 53.0% |
| Sector (XLC) | -0.1% | 58.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 68.0% change in ROKU stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 48.4% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 70.44 | 118.34 | 68.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,113 | 4,737 | 15.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.5 | 3.7 | 48.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 146 | 148 | -1.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 68.0% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ROKU | 68.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.3% | 63.6% |
| Sector (XLC) | 23.3% | 64.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 79.8% change in ROKU stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 51.5% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 65.82 | 118.34 | 79.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,127 | 4,737 | 51.5% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.9 | 3.7 | 25.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 140 | 148 | -5.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 79.8% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ROKU | 79.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 63.3% | 51.3% |
| Sector (XLC) | 109.5% | 48.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ROKU Return | -31% | -82% | 125% | -19% | 46% | 5% | -66% |
| Peers Return | 20% | -42% | 52% | 44% | 18% | 1% | 79% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 3% | 88% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ROKU Win Rate | 50% | 25% | 58% | 50% | 75% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 30% | 67% | 67% | 53% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ROKU Max Drawdown | -39% | -83% | -0% | -44% | -26% | -24% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -11% | -48% | -3% | -7% | -22% | -15% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: AMZN, GOOGL, AAPL, NFLX, DIS. See ROKU Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/22/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ROKU | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -91.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1135.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -55.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 124.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 115 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -64.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 181.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 136 days | 120 days |
Compare to AMZN, GOOGL, AAPL, NFLX, DIS
In The Past
Roku's stock fell -91.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/26/2021. A -91.9% loss requires a 1135.8% gain to breakeven.
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About Roku (ROKU)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-2 brief analogies for Roku:
- Like the Android operating system for smart TVs, complete with its own streaming devices and a powerful advertising platform.
- Essentially the Amazon Fire TV ecosystem, but as an independent company solely focused on building the universal platform and advertising network for TV streaming.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```html- Platform Services: Operates a TV streaming platform allowing users to discover and access a wide variety of movies, TV episodes, and live content.
- Advertising & Content Distribution: Provides digital and video advertising, content distribution, subscription and billing services, and brand sponsorships on its platform.
- Roku TV Licensing: Licenses its smart TV operating system to manufacturers for integration into Roku TV-branded smart televisions.
- Streaming Players: Manufactures and sells dedicated hardware devices that enable streaming of content on televisions.
- Audio Products & Accessories: Offers branded audio products and various accessories compatible with its streaming ecosystem.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Roku (ROKU) primarily serves individual consumers.
The company's major customers can be categorized as:
- Streaming Device Users: Individuals who purchase Roku streaming players (such as Roku Express, Roku Streaming Stick, or Roku Ultra) to transform their existing televisions into smart TVs or to enhance their streaming capabilities. These users rely on Roku hardware to access a vast library of streaming content.
- Roku TV Owners: Consumers who buy smart televisions that come with the Roku operating system pre-installed. These individuals enjoy a seamless and integrated streaming experience directly on their TV, eliminating the need for separate streaming devices.
- Content Consumers and Platform Users: This broad category encompasses all individuals who utilize the Roku platform—whether through a Roku player or a Roku TV—to discover, access, and stream movies, TV episodes, live TV, news, sports, and other digital content. These active accounts (totaling 60.1 million as of December 31, 2021) form the core audience for Roku's advertising revenue and content distribution partnerships.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
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Anthony Wood, Founder, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Anthony Wood founded Roku in 2002, marking his sixth startup. He previously founded ReplayTV, the first commercially sold DVR, which was acquired by SONICblue Incorporated for $42 million in 2001. He also founded BrightSign, a leader in digital signage media players. Additionally, Wood was co-founder and CEO of iband, Inc., acquired by Macromedia for $36 million, and founder and CEO of SunRize Industries. In 2007, he briefly served as Vice President of Internet TV at Netflix.
Dan Jedda, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer
Dan Jedda joined Roku in 2023 as Chief Financial Officer and was appointed Chief Operating Officer in 2025. Prior to Roku, he served as CFO at Stitch Fix starting in 2020. Before Stitch Fix, Jedda spent 15 years at Amazon, predominantly as Vice President and Chief Financial Officer for Digital Video (including Amazon Studios), Digital Music, and the Advertising and Corporate Development organizations. Earlier in his career, he held leadership roles at Toshiba, ADC Telecommunications, and Honeywell.
Mustafa Ozgen, President, Devices, Products, and Technology
Mustafa Ozgen joined Roku in 2019. Before Roku, he served as CEO of SmartKem, a semiconductor company, and CEO of QD Vision, a nanotechnology materials firm that was acquired by Samsung. He also held senior management and engineering roles at companies such as Sigma Designs, CSR, Zoran, Oak Technology, TeraLogic, and WindRiver Systems.
Charlie Collier, President, Roku Media
Charlie Collier joined Roku in 2022. He brings over 25 years of leadership in the media industry. Prior to Roku, he served as CEO of Fox Entertainment. Before Fox, he spent more than 12 years at AMC Networks as President and General Manager of AMC, later adding SundanceTV and AMC Studios.
Gil Fuchsberg, President, Subscriptions, Partnerships and Corporate Development
Gil Fuchsberg joined Roku in 2018. He previously held senior executive roles in corporate development and digital distribution at News Corporation/Fox. Earlier in his career, he launched a startup within Hearst, managed technology investments at J.P. Morgan's private equity division, and led digital strategy and acquisitions at the Interpublic Group of Companies.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key risks to Roku's business:
- Intense Competition in the TV OS and Streaming Market: Roku faces significant competition from major tech companies and smart TV manufacturers such as Google (Google TV), Amazon (Fire TV), Samsung (Tizen OS), LG (webOS), and Apple (Apple TV). These competitors often have vertically integrated ecosystems, allowing them to bundle services and subsidize hardware, which can pressure Roku's device sales and operating system adoption. The entry of new players or strategic moves by existing ones, like Walmart's acquisition of Vizio, could also impact Roku's distribution channels and market share.
- Advertising Market Cyclicality and Dependence on Ad Spend: A substantial portion of Roku's revenue is derived from its Platform segment, which relies heavily on digital and video advertising. Economic downturns or uncertainties can lead to reduced advertising spend, directly impacting Roku's platform revenue growth and profitability. The company's exposure to short-term market fluctuations is heightened by the fact that many of its ads are sold 30 to 60 days in advance.
- Device Profitability Drag and Margin Pressure: Roku's Devices segment, which includes the sale of streaming players and Roku-branded TVs, frequently operates at a loss, exhibiting negative gross margins, particularly during peak sales periods like holiday quarters. This consistent unprofitability in the hardware segment can offset gains from the higher-margin Platform segment, making overall company earnings more unpredictable and potentially impacting investor confidence.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The increasing consolidation of control over the smart TV operating system and advertising ecosystem by major technology companies (e.g., Google with Google TV/Android TV, Amazon with Fire TV OS) and large television manufacturers (e.g., Samsung with Tizen, LG with WebOS). These entities are aggressively pushing their own integrated streaming services, advertising platforms, and content discovery experiences directly on the hardware, thereby competing directly with Roku's platform for user engagement, advertising revenue, and market share in licensed smart TV operating systems.
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Here are the addressable markets for Roku's main products and services:Platform Segment (TV streaming platform, advertising, content distribution, subscriptions, billing, brand sponsorships):
- The global online TV streaming service market was valued at $280.1 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach $1,391.3 billion by 2033, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.5% from 2024 to 2033.
- The global video streaming market size was estimated at USD 129.26 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 416.8 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 21.5% from 2025 to 2030. North America held the largest revenue share globally in the video streaming industry in 2024, with a 31.3% share.
- The North America streaming services market held a major market share of over 40% of the global revenue, with a market size of USD 43.03 billion in 2024. The U.S. streaming service market alone was projected at USD 33.95 billion in 2024.
- The U.S. Connected TV (CTV) advertising market is projected to reach approximately $38 billion in 2026. It reached $28.79 billion in 2024 and $33.35 billion in 2025.
- Roku reported 80 million active accounts globally in 2023 and surpassed 90 million streaming households globally in January 2025. By Q4 2024, Roku had 89.8 million active users.
Roku TV (Smart TVs):
- The North America smart TV market was valued at USD 76.1 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 224.0 billion by 2033, exhibiting a CAGR of 12.11% during 2025-2033. Another estimate for the North America smart TV market in 2024 is USD 67.5 billion.
- The global smart TV market size was valued at USD 261.28 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 783.91 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 12.98% during the forecast period.
- The global Roku smart TV market size was valued at US$ 48.08 billion in 2025 and is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 14.4% from 2025 to 2033.
- In 2024, Roku stood out as the leading platform in the North American Smart TV market, holding 35.5% of the total share. Roku OS was the number one selling TV operating system in the U.S. for the fifth year in a row in 2023 and is the leading TV operating system in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico.
Streaming Players, Audio Products, and Accessories:
- The global streaming devices market size was valued at USD 16.78 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow to USD 50.82 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of 13.1% during the forecast period (2025-2033). Other estimates place the global streaming devices market at USD 16.11 billion in 2025, projected to grow to USD 36.51 billion by 2031 (CAGR 14.61%), or USD 17.59 billion in 2025, projected to reach USD 61.31 billion by 2035 (CAGR 13.3%).
- North America is projected to lead the streaming devices market with a 46.1% share by 2035.
- Roku was the most popular brand of streaming media players in the U.S., accounting for 43% of streaming products among homes using these devices as of August 2024. In Q2 2025, Roku held a 37% share globally and in the U.S. connected TV device market.
AI Analysis | Feedback
For Roku (ROKU), several key drivers are expected to fuel future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years:
- Growth in Platform Revenue, particularly from Video Advertising: Roku's platform segment is consistently highlighted as the primary engine for its revenue growth, with advertising and commission projected to account for a significant portion of total revenues. The company anticipates strong performance in video advertising and streaming services distribution, leveraging enhanced ad technology and deeper integrations with demand-side platforms to attract more advertisers. Political ad spending is also expected to contribute to advertising revenue.
- Expansion of Subscription Services: Roku is focused on growing its subscription business, which includes direct-to-consumer and premium subscriptions. Management is actively working on expanding third-party partnerships to increase ad demand and growing Roku-billed subscriptions, with premium subscriptions showing record growth.
- Continued Growth in Streaming Households (User Base Expansion): Expanding its user base in the U.S. and globally is a key driver. Roku aims to reach nearly 100 million streaming households by the end of 2025 or 2026, solidifying its position as a leading streaming platform.
- International Expansion: The company is strategically focused on international growth, aiming to replicate its U.S. success globally by expanding its Roku TV operating system in key markets.
- Improved Home Screen Monetization and User Engagement: Roku is working on enhancing the user experience, particularly through its home screen, to drive more engagement, subscriptions, and advertising revenue. This strategy aims to improve monetization by making better use of its home screen real estate.
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Share Repurchases
- Roku announced a $400 million stock buyback initiative on July 31, 2025.
- As of December 31, 2025, Roku had repurchased a total of $150 million of shares under its $400 million stock repurchase program.
- In the third quarter of 2025, Roku completed a $50 million share buyback, repurchasing 536,071 shares.
Share Issuance
- Roku's shares outstanding increased by 4.34% year-over-year to 0.151 billion for the quarter ending December 31, 2025.
- Shares outstanding for 2025 were 0.151 billion, an increase of 4.34% from 2024.
- Roku's shares outstanding increased by 2.16% from 2023 to 0.145 billion in 2024.
Outbound Investments
- Roku acquired Frndly TV in the first quarter of 2025 for $185 million, aiming to strengthen its subscription offerings.
- Roku's peak acquisition activity occurred in 2021 with two acquisitions.
- In March 2021, Roku acquired This Old House, a provider of home improvement and remodeling content and services.
Capital Expenditures
- Roku's capital expenditures averaged $58.939 million for the fiscal years ending December 2021 to 2025.
- Capital expenditures peaked in December 2022 at $161.7 million and hit a 5-year low of $5.061 million in December 2024.
- The latest twelve months capital expenditures ending December 31, 2025, were $5.28 million, with Q4 2025 seeing $1.1 million invested.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Roku Stock On Fire: Up 13% With 6-Day Winning Streak | 04/08/2026 | |
| Roku Stock Rockets 13% With 5-Day Winning Streak | 04/07/2026 | |
| Roku Stock Pre-Market (+13%) : Blowout Q4 Earnings & Strong 2026 Guidance | 02/13/2026 | |
| Is 22.8% Fall In Roku (ROKU) Stock A Buying Opportunity? | 02/07/2026 | |
| What Is Happening With Roku Stock? | 01/10/2026 | |
| Roku Earnings Notes | 12/26/2025 | |
| Is Roku Stock Built to Withstand a Pullback? | 10/17/2025 | |
| Where Does Roku Stock Rank Among Competitors? | 08/13/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Roku Stock 6-Day Winning Spree: Stock Climbs 13% | 04/08/2026 | |
| Roku Stock 5-Day Winning Spree: Stock Climbs 13% | 04/07/2026 | |
| Roku Stock Pre-Market (+13%) : Blowout Q4 Earnings & Strong 2026 Guidance | 02/13/2026 | |
| Roku Stock To $60? | 02/07/2026 | |
| Mid Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | 12/17/2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to ROKU.
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| 03272026 | META | Meta Platforms | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.8% | 8.8% | 0.0% |
| 03062026 | CARG | CarGurus | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.2% | 1.2% | -8.3% |
| 02132026 | YELP | Yelp | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 17.9% | 17.9% | -5.7% |
| 02132026 | TRIP | Tripadvisor | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.9% | 10.9% | -3.9% |
| 02062026 | OMC | Omnicom | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.9% | 8.9% | -3.7% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 186.85 |
| Mkt Cap | 1,564.3 |
| Rev LTM | 249,276 |
| Op Inc LTM | 46,956 |
| FCF LTM | 9,795 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 16,513 |
| CFO LTM | 75,552 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 63,997 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 13.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 12.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 15.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.0% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 15.7% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 33.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 22.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 19.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 23.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 14.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1,564.3 |
| P/S | 6.1 |
| P/Op Inc | 28.4 |
| P/EBIT | 26.6 |
| P/E | 32.6 |
| P/CFO | 27.3 |
| Total Yield | 3.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.8% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 10.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 9.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 11.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 42.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 121.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 6.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 5.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 8.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 44.1% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $118.34 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 17.5 | |
| First Trading Date | 09/28/2017 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -0.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $97.14 | $97.91 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | 21.8% | 20.9% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 52.3% | 47.2% |
| Downside Capture | 0.47 | 0.65 |
| Upside Capture | 278.53 | 190.11 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 51.8% | 50.9% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.46 | 2.46 | 2.17 | 1.86 | 1.76 | 2.04 |
| Up Beta | 3.85 | -0.32 | 1.04 | 0.81 | 1.58 | 1.72 |
| Down Beta | 2.17 | 2.66 | 1.67 | 2.02 | 2.11 | 2.37 |
| Up Capture | 277% | 351% | 274% | 233% | 244% | 1220% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 20 | 26 | 63 | 133 | 385 |
| Down Capture | 196% | 222% | 229% | 174% | 137% | 112% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 22 | 37 | 63 | 118 | 363 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ROKU | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROKU | 96.8% | 47.2% | 1.59 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 35.1% | 13.5% | 1.97 | 54.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 26.7% | 12.5% | 1.77 | 53.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 38.9% | 27.4% | 1.19 | 5.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 23.5% | 16.2% | 1.32 | 12.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 15.6% | 13.6% | 0.82 | 17.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -12.8% | 42.6% | -0.21 | 29.3% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ROKU | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROKU | -21.5% | 67.0% | -0.08 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 10.0% | 20.7% | 0.39 | 58.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 10.5% | 17.1% | 0.48 | 52.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.5% | 17.8% | 0.99 | 5.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.7% | 18.8% | 0.47 | 8.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.6% | 18.8% | 0.09 | 38.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 3.8% | 56.4% | 0.29 | 26.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ROKU | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROKU | 17.3% | 73.8% | 0.57 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 9.8% | 22.3% | 0.52 | 50.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.8% | 17.9% | 0.66 | 40.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.9% | 15.9% | 0.73 | 6.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.1% | 17.6% | 0.38 | 9.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 28.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 68.1% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 18.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/12/2026 | 8.6% | 7.4% | 14.8% |
| 10/30/2025 | 6.1% | 4.8% | -1.8% |
| 7/31/2025 | -15.1% | -11.7% | 2.5% |
| 5/1/2025 | -8.5% | -8.8% | 8.5% |
| 2/13/2025 | 14.1% | 2.4% | -19.8% |
| 10/30/2024 | -17.3% | -6.8% | -10.9% |
| 8/1/2024 | -4.0% | 0.5% | 22.5% |
| 4/25/2024 | -10.3% | -4.6% | -9.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 10 | 12 |
| # Negative | 13 | 14 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 11.2% | 6.3% | 12.3% |
| Median Negative | -8.5% | -11.3% | -17.7% |
| Max Positive | 31.4% | 38.8% | 73.4% |
| Max Negative | -23.8% | -31.8% | -34.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/13/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/02/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/14/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/16/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/16/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/29/2022 | 10-Q |
ROKU Trade Sentinel
AVOID (Score 1-2)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The probability-adjusted skew is highly unfavorable at 0.31x. The primary reason is the 'CONTESTED' competitive moat, evidenced by the material loss of the Walmart partnership. This structural risk warrants a high (70%) downside probability. While the long thesis is plausible, the potential reward does not compensate for the significant risk of permanent market share loss to better-capitalized, vertically-integrated competitors, justifying an AVOID rating.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
High-Beta CompounderRoku fits the 'High-Beta Compounder' archetype due to its high-growth Platform segment, significant market opportunity in the shift to CTV, and high stock volatility. The investment thesis hinges on the durability of its Platform revenue growth and the strength of its competitive moat against cash-rich tech giants, justifying a focus on these factors over near-term profitability.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The primary long thesis for Roku is the accretive revenue mix shift from negative-margin hardware sales to the high-margin Platform business, coupled with recent evidence of operating expense discipline. As the Platform segment, growing at a resilient 17% YoY, becomes a larger portion of the business (~88% of total revenue), it drives significant gross profit growth and creates a clear path to sustained GAAP profitability and free cash flow generation.
- Platform revenue grew 17% YoY in Q3 2025 to $1.065B, representing ~88% of total revenue.
- Platform gross margin was ~52% in Q3 2025, in stark contrast to the Devices segment's negative gross margin of -15.7%.
- The company has demonstrated strong operating leverage, with 18.03% revenue growth vs. only 1.26% OpEx growth in full-year 2024.
- Free cash flow reached $443 million on a trailing 12-month basis as of Q3 2025, indicating an efficient, capital-light model.
PRIMARY RISK
The most significant risk to the thesis is the accelerating competition in the TV Operating System (OS) market from vertically-integrated giants like Amazon, Google, and now Walmart/Vizio. These competitors can leverage their massive scale in retail, advertising, and hardware to subsidize their OS, marginalize Roku's distribution, and compress its take-rates. The recent loss of the Walmart Onn TV partnership is a material leading indicator of this erosion.
- Competition from Amazon Fire TV, Google TV, and Samsung Tizen is identified as a 'primary bear case' and a 'STRUCTURAL' threat.
- Walmart, Roku's largest OEM partner, announced it will replace Roku's OS on its private-label TVs, signaling a major loss in distribution access and a direct threat to new account growth.
- Roku is dominant with content publishers but is losing to Amazon on price-conscious consumers and to Google on performance-sensitive advertisers, indicating a pincer movement on its core constituencies.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Platform Revenue Growth (YoY) | Sustain above 15% | This is the primary North Star metric. A drop below 15% would signal that competitive intrusion from Amazon, Google, and Walmart/Vizio is materially impacting monetization and market share, breaking the core long thesis. |
| Major TV OEM Announcements | No further losses of major North American partners (e.g., TCL, Hisense) | Roku's distribution moat is its primary user acquisition funnel. The Walmart loss was a major blow; another similar loss would confirm the 'CONTESTED' moat thesis and invalidate the company's path to continued user growth. |
| GAAP Operating Margin | Sustained positive trajectory | The company recently achieved positive operating income. Continued progress towards sustained profitability is crucial to validate the operating leverage thesis and justify a premium valuation, especially as revenue growth moderates. |
Platform Growth vs. The Walled Gardens
BULL VIEW
Resilient Platform revenue (17% YoY) and a shift to profitability prove the model works. Roku is the leading neutral aggregator in streaming, a must-have for content partners.
CORE TENSION
Can Roku's high-margin Platform revenue growth outpace intense, structural competition from tech giants (Amazon, Google) who are squeezing its hardware distribution funnel?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The loss of the Walmart OEM partnership is a tangible sign of competitive pressure on the hardware funnel, while the cluster of insider selling signals low near-term confidence from leadership. [5]
BEAR VIEW
Losing key hardware partners (Walmart) and hiding user metrics (ARPU, Households) signals a flattening US growth curve. Competitors will erode market share and compress ad pricing.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
February 12, 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings & Guidance Watch: Q1 2026 Platform Revenue guidance. A figure below 15% YoY growth would confirm the deceleration thesis. |
Anytime | Competitor OS Partnership Announcement Watch: News of a major TV OEM like TCL or Hisense signing an exclusive deal with Google TV or Amazon Fire TV for North American models. |
March 23-26, 2026 | IAB NewFronts Advertiser Sentiment Watch: Trade press coverage quoting major ad buyers expressing caution on CTV budgets or shifting spend to other platforms like social video. |
Q1 2026 | Industry Reports on CTV Ad Pricing (CPMs) Watch: Reports from programmatic ad exchanges or agencies showing a material QoQ decline in average CTV CPMs. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2025-08-01 | Q2 2025 Earnings Details: Despite beating EPS and revenue expectations, the stock crashed. This suggests concern over guidance or the broader macro environment outweighed the positive results. | Plummeted -15.1% $94.16 -> $79.98 |
2025-10-31 | Q3 2025 Earnings Details: Roku reported achieving positive operating income for the first time since 2021 and provided a strong adjusted EBITDA outlook, signaling improving profitability. | Rose significantly by 2.4% $106.13 -> $108.63 |
2025-12-05 | Investor Conference Presentation Details: Roku's CFO presented at the 53rd Annual Nasdaq Investor Conference. The stock rallied following the event, suggesting positive investor sentiment. [9] | Surged +5.9% $94.54 -> $100.09 |
2025-12-22 | Strategic Partnership Details: Roku and Nielsen announced an expanded multi-year partnership to incorporate Roku's viewership data into Nielsen's measurement solutions, enhancing ad targeting capabilities. [9, 14, 24] | Muted (0.9%) $108.82 -> $109.80 |
2026-01-12 | Insider Selling Details: CEO Anthony Wood sold 75,000 shares for approximately $8.22 million, part of a broader pattern of insider sales. The market reaction was minimal on the day. [5] | Muted (-0.4%) $111.17 -> $110.72 |
2026-01-29 | Q4 2025 Earnings Date Announcement Details: Roku announced it will release its Q4 2025 financial results on February 12, 2026. The stock reaction was minimal on the announcement day. [9, 27] | Muted (-0.4%) $100.84 -> $100.46 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
Stock is in an Explosive Volatility regime (3.4x S&P). The Bearish sentiment, driven by intense competition and insider selling, justifies a conservative 'knife catch' position.
Diversification Alternatives
TTD
INDUSTRYUnlike Roku, TTD avoids the low-margin hardware business and direct OS competition. It's a higher-margin, pure-play on the growth of programmatic advertising. [12, 18, 22]
NFLX
SECTORNetflix has a more resilient, diversified model with subscription and advertising revenue. Its global scale and ownership of content provide a durable competitive advantage. [6, 29, 37]
Roku is a profitable TV streaming platform whose primary economic engine is not selling hardware, but monetizing its 90+ million user base through advertising and content distribution, using its devices as a low/negative margin customer acquisition channel.
Filter all news through the lens of Platform monetization efficiency (ARPU growth) and user base expansion, as hardware sales are a means to an end.
Platform revenue growth accelerating >18% YoY; Platform gross margin expansion above 53%; significant growth in programmatic ad impressions; new international market entries or monetization partnerships; major advertisers shifting budget to Roku's platform.
Deceleration in Platform revenue growth below guidance; compression in Platform gross margins; loss of OS market share in North America to competitors like Google TV or Amazon Fire TV; major content partners (e.g., Netflix, Disney) reducing their reliance on Roku for distribution.
Quarterly fluctuations in Device (Player) revenue or margins — this is a strategic loss-leader and not the core profit driver; individual content releases on The Roku Channel — focus on the overall engagement and monetization trends of the channel, not single shows.
Repricing Catalyst
The company's successful shift to GAAP profitability in 2025, driven by high-margin (52%) Platform revenue growth (+18% YoY) and disciplined operating expense management. Management's guidance for FY2026 projects a 51% increase in Adjusted EBITDA to $635 million and a near quadrupling of Net Income to $325 million, signaling a sustainable profitability model that the market is re-evaluating.
Platform (Advertising & Content Distribution)
$4145000.0B TTM (87.5% of Total) · 52.8% MarginWhat It Is
Monetized Video on Demand (MVPD) advertising on The Roku Channel and partner apps, Streaming Service Distribution (revenue shares from subscriptions sold via Roku Pay), audience development promotions, and branded buttons on remote controls.
Who Pays & How
Advertisers (from Fortune 500 brands to small businesses) pay for targeted access to Roku's 90M+ streaming households. Content publishers (like Netflix, Disney+) pay for distribution, promotion, and subscription billing services to acquire and retain subscribers.
Competition
Devices (Streaming Players & TVs)
$592000.0B TTM (12.5% of Total) · -23.3% MarginWhat It Is
Roku streaming players (Express, Streaming Stick, Ultra), Roku-branded smart TVs, and licensed Roku TV models manufactured by partners like TCL and Hisense.
Who Pays & How
Consumers pay a one-time fee for the hardware to access streaming content. The devices are priced as loss-leaders (negative gross margin) to drive household acquisition for the high-margin Platform business.
Competition
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