PubMatic (PUBM)
Market Price (5/18/2026): $9.725 | Market Cap: $458.2 MilSector: Information Technology | Industry: IT Consulting & Other Services
PubMatic (PUBM)
Market Price (5/18/2026): $9.725Market Cap: $458.2 MilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: IT Consulting & Other Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -22% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 11% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Social Media & Creator Economy, and Digital Advertising. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -99%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -111% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -21 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -7.3% Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.3%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.0% Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -8.0% Key risksPUBM key risks include [1] significant revenue volatility due to its high concentration and dependence on a few key DSP partners and [2] strategic challenges to the long-term viability of its stand-alone SSP business model as the lines between supply and demand platforms blur. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -22% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 11% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Social Media & Creator Economy, and Digital Advertising. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -99%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -111% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -21 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -7.3% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.3%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.0% |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -8.0% |
| Key risksPUBM key risks include [1] significant revenue volatility due to its high concentration and dependence on a few key DSP partners and [2] strategic challenges to the long-term viability of its stand-alone SSP business model as the lines between supply and demand platforms blur. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Strong Earnings Beats and Optimistic Financial Guidance.
PubMatic consistently exceeded analyst expectations for both its fourth quarter 2025 and first quarter 2026 financial results. In Q4 2025, the company reported revenue of $80.05 million, beating estimates by 6.2%, and an adjusted EPS of $0.29, surpassing estimates by 89.1%. For Q1 2026, revenue reached $62.6 million, beating consensus estimates by 4.4% to 6.12% (depending on the source), and adjusted EPS was -$0.11, significantly better than the -$0.16 to -$0.33 expected. Furthermore, PubMatic provided strong Q1 2026 revenue guidance of $59 million at the midpoint, which was 2.2% above analyst estimates, and Q2 2026 revenue guidance of $68-$70 million, with the midpoint of $69 million exceeding analyst expectations by 3.2%. Management also projected a return to double-digit revenue growth in the second half of 2026.
2. Accelerated Adoption of AI Solutions and AgenticOS.
The company highlighted significant traction and increasing adoption of its AI capabilities, particularly its AgenticOS platform. PubMatic reported over 1,000 AI-powered deals transacted in Q1 2026. Emerging revenues, which include newly launched AI solutions, grew over 80% year-over-year in Q1 2026 and constituted approximately 14% of total revenues. The CEO anticipates that 25% of all digital advertising will be executed autonomously via agentic AI by 2028.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 33.9% change in PUBM stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/17/2026 was primarily driven by a 40.6% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5172026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 7.26 | 9.72 | 33.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 288 | 282 | -2.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.2 | 1.6 | 40.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 46 | 47 | -2.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 33.9% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/17/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PUBM | 33.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.1% | 22.8% |
| Sector (XLK) | 22.7% | 23.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 16.3% change in PUBM stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/17/2026 was primarily driven by a 20.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5172026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 8.36 | 9.72 | 16.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 292 | 282 | -3.6% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.3 | 1.6 | 20.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 47 | 47 | 0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 16.3% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/17/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PUBM | 16.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.0% | 21.1% |
| Sector (XLK) | 17.6% | 15.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -0.5% change in PUBM stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/17/2026 was primarily driven by a -3.3% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5172026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 9.77 | 9.72 | -0.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 291 | 282 | -3.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 48 | 47 | 1.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -0.5% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/17/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PUBM | -0.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 34.8% | 25.9% |
| Sector (XLK) | 68.8% | 20.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -28.8% change in PUBM stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/17/2026 was primarily driven by a -42.0% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5172026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 13.66 | 9.72 | -28.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 256 | 282 | 9.9% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.8 | 1.6 | -42.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 53 | 47 | 11.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -28.8% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/17/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PUBM | -28.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 84.7% | 33.1% |
| Sector (XLK) | 138.6% | 30.4% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PUBM Return | 22% | -62% | 27% | -10% | -40% | 7% | -66% |
| Peers Return | 18% | -41% | 49% | 45% | 4% | -8% | 44% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 100% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PUBM Win Rate | 50% | 33% | 42% | 33% | 50% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 27% | 68% | 63% | 48% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PUBM Max Drawdown | -68% | -64% | -44% | -43% | -57% | -29% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -30% | -51% | -28% | -21% | -42% | -30% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MGNI, TTD, GOOGL, AMZN, MSFT.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/15/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PUBM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -39.6% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 65.6% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 118 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -21.6% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.5% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 8 days | 31 days |
In The Past
PubMatic's stock fell -39.6% during the Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 65.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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| Event | PUBM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -39.6% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 65.6% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 118 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -21.6% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.5% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 8 days | 31 days |
In The Past
PubMatic's stock fell -39.6% during the Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 65.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About PubMatic (PUBM)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are a few brief analogies to describe PubMatic:
The Nasdaq for digital ad space. (PubMatic is a real-time marketplace facilitating buying and selling of ad impressions, much like a stock exchange trades securities.)
Sotheby's for digital ad inventory. (PubMatic provides tools for publishers to auction off their ad space to advertisers in real-time, similar to how an auction house facilitates bidding for valuable items.)
An Amazon Web Services (AWS) for programmatic advertising. (PubMatic provides the underlying cloud infrastructure platform that powers automated, real-time ad transactions for publishers and advertisers, much like AWS provides cloud infrastructure for websites and applications.)
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Openwrap: A header bidding solution providing enterprise-grade management and analytics tools, including versions for OTT and in-app developers.
- Private Marketplace Solutions: Tools facilitating exclusive programmatic advertising transactions between specific buyers and sellers.
- Media Buyer Consoles: Interfaces and tools designed for advertisers and agencies to manage their ad buying activities.
- Real-Time Bidding (RTB) Programmatic Technologies: Provides various options for selling digital ad inventory across screens and ad formats through automated real-time auctions.
- Digital Advertising Inventory Quality Solutions: Services to detect and filter out invalid traffic and other nefarious activity to ensure the quality of ad inventory.
- Ad Quality Solutions: Technologies targeting the reduction of security, quality, and performance issues related to digital advertisements.
- Identity Hub: A privacy-compliant identity solution enabling the use of various advertiser-preferred user identifiers at scale.
- Audience Encore: An audience data platform designed for managing and activating audience data.
- Cross-Platform Video Sell Side Platform: Connects trusted video buyers with premium publishers for video advertising inventory across various platforms.
AI Analysis | Feedback
PubMatic (PUBM) sells primarily to other companies within the digital advertising ecosystem. The provided background information describes the categories of companies it serves rather than listing specific customer names.
Based on the description, PubMatic's major customers are:
- Internet Content Creators and Publishers: This includes a wide range of entities such as owners of websites, mobile applications, and Over-The-Top (OTT) / Connected Television (CTV) platforms. These customers utilize PubMatic's platform to manage and monetize their digital advertising inventory. The company specifically mentions serving "premium publishers" and providing solutions for "in-app developers."
- Advertisers and Media Buyers: These customers are brands, advertising agencies, or demand-side platforms (DSPs) that utilize PubMatic's platform to purchase digital ad inventory and reach their target audiences across various formats and devices. The description refers to "advertisers worldwide," "media buyer consoles," and "trusted video buyers."
AI Analysis | Feedback
Rajeev Goel, Co-Founder & Chief Executive Officer
Rajeev Goel co-founded PubMatic in 2006. He is a serial entrepreneur, having previously co-founded Chipshot.com, an online retailer of custom-built golf equipment, where he served as vice president of technology. Prior to PubMatic, he was also a product marketing director at SAP and a principal at Diamond Management and Technology Consultants.
Steve Pantelick, Chief Financial Officer
Steve Pantelick joined PubMatic as Chief Financial Officer in 2011. His extensive background includes serving as CFO of Aggregate Knowledge, a data management platform company, and as CFO of Ofoto/Kodak Gallery, an online photo-sharing company. Earlier in his career, he held various leadership roles at Blockbuster Inc., including COO of its New Media Division and Senior Vice President of U.S. Financial Operations, and played a pivotal role in taking the company public in 1999. He also spent seven years with Cadbury Schweppes in roles across the US and Europe.
Amar Goel, Founder, Chairman & Chief Innovation Officer
Amar Goel co-founded PubMatic in 2006 and was the company's first CEO. He previously co-founded Chipshot.com.
Mukul Kumar, Co-Founder & President, Engineering
Mukul Kumar co-founded PubMatic in 2006. He is responsible for driving the development of the company's AI-powered platform.
Paulina Klimenko, Chief Growth Officer
Paulina Klimenko serves as the Chief Growth Officer, focusing on scaling new revenue streams for PubMatic. Prior to this role, she was the Senior Vice President of Corporate Development and General Manager of Mobile at PubMatic.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Key Risks to PubMatic (PUBM)
- Intense Competition and Dependence on Major Demand-Side Platforms (DSPs): PubMatic operates in a highly competitive digital advertising technology market with numerous rivals, including established ad tech giants like Google Ad Manager, Magnite, Index Exchange, and Xandr. Google Ad Manager, in particular, is noted as a formidable competitor due to its extensive market reach. PubMatic has even filed a lawsuit against Google, alleging anticompetitive behavior that has hindered its growth and created an unlevel playing field. Furthermore, PubMatic faces significant risk due to its reliance on a few large DSP partners, such as Google DV360 and The Trade Desk. Changes in the buying patterns or strategies of these major DSPs, or increased competitive pressure from them, can directly impact PubMatic's revenue and market share. The ad-tech sector has also seen volatility driven by investor concerns over intensified competition, especially from AI-driven digital giants.
- Evolving Data Privacy Regulations and Deprecation of Third-Party Identifiers: The digital advertising industry is undergoing a significant transformation towards a privacy-centric environment, driven by stricter global data privacy regulations (such as GDPR and CCPA) and the phasing out of third-party cookies and other traditional user identifiers. This shift necessitates continuous adaptation of PubMatic's platform and solutions to maintain compliance and effectiveness in an ecosystem with fewer traditional targeting signals. Failure to effectively navigate these regulatory changes and technological shifts could impact PubMatic's ability to offer effective advertising solutions, potentially affecting monetization for publishers and advertisers. Privacy-related class-action litigation also presents an increasing financial and operational risk.
- Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Volatility in Advertising Spend: PubMatic's business is directly dependent on overall advertising demand, making it vulnerable to macroeconomic uncertainties and fluctuations in advertising budgets. Economic downturns can lead to advertisers reducing their spending, which directly impacts PubMatic's revenue streams. The ad-tech sector has experienced considerable volatility, with investor apprehension regarding the sustainability of growth in digital advertising amidst evolving macroeconomic conditions. Seasonal fluctuations or broader market changes in digital advertising activity also pose a risk to the company's business and financial performance.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The digital advertising industry is undergoing significant structural shifts that present clear emerging threats to companies like PubMatic (PUBM):
-
Evolving Privacy Regulations and the Deprecation of Third-Party Identifiers: The increasing implementation of stringent global data privacy regulations (e.g., GDPR, CCPA, and similar frameworks) combined with significant platform-level changes such as Google's planned deprecation of third-party cookies in Chrome and Apple's App Tracking Transparency (ATT) framework are fundamentally disrupting traditional methods of user tracking, targeting, and measurement in digital advertising. PubMatic's core business relies on enabling efficient, data-driven programmatic advertising transactions. While PubMatic offers solutions like "Identity Hub" to address these changes, the continuous evolution and tightening of privacy controls could fundamentally alter the effectiveness and scale of open internet advertising, making it harder for advertisers to reach desired audiences and potentially reducing demand for programmatic inventory. This constitutes a structural threat to the entire ad tech ecosystem that relies on established identity and tracking mechanisms.
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Dominance and Expansion of Walled Gardens: The increasing consolidation of ad spend and user data within large "walled garden" platforms (e.g., Google, Meta, Amazon, Apple) presents a significant competitive threat. These platforms offer highly integrated advertising solutions within their own vast ecosystems, often leveraging proprietary first-party data for superior targeting, measurement, and simplified buying experiences. If advertisers increasingly direct their budgets to these closed environments due to perceived better performance, ease of use, or exclusive data access, it could reduce the overall ad spend available for the open internet, where PubMatic primarily operates. This shift could limit PubMatic's growth opportunities and reduce the transaction volumes and monetization potential for its publisher partners.
AI Analysis | Feedback
PubMatic (PUBM) operates within several significant addressable markets related to programmatic advertising.
The **global programmatic advertising market** was estimated at USD 678.37 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 2,753.03 billion by 2030, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.8% from 2024 to 2030. Another estimate valued the global programmatic advertising market at USD 595.4 billion in 2024, poised to grow to USD 3165.54 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of 20.4% during the forecast period of 2026-2033. In 2025, global programmatic ad spending reached approximately $716 billion. North America held the largest share of the global programmatic advertising market, accounting for 32.6% in 2023.
Within the broader programmatic advertising market, specific segments address PubMatic's key offerings:
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For **programmatic video advertising**, the video segment constituted the largest market share of 41.8% within programmatic advertising in 2023. Programmatic video is forecast to increase at a 25.1% CAGR to 2031.
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The **global programmatic Connected TV (CTV) and Over-the-Top (OTT) advertising market** is experiencing rapid growth. Global CTV ad spending is projected to exceed USD 45 billion by the end of 2026. In the U.S. alone, CTV ad spending surpassed $30 billion. More than 90% of CTV display ad spending is transacted programmatically, a trend expected to drive nearly all of the channel's growth through 2026. The total global OTT/CTV ad spend is anticipated to increase to $18.3 billion by 2024.
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For **Real-Time Bidding (RTB) programmatic technologies**, the global real-time bidding market was valued at USD 14.37 billion in 2023 and is expected to reach USD 39.61 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 16.0% from 2024 to 2030. The RTB segment held the largest market share of 42.0% within the overall programmatic advertising market in 2023.
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Regarding **header bidding solutions** (such as Openwrap, Openwrap OTT, and Openwrap SDK), while a specific market size in USD is not readily available, header bidding is widely adopted and recognized for increasing publisher revenue. As of Q1 2022, 70% of U.S. publishers adopted header bidding technology on their sites. Additionally, 84.1% of U.S.-based sites were utilizing header bidding by the end of Q2 2021. This technology can maximize publisher revenue by up to 30%.
AI Analysis | Feedback
PubMatic (PUBM) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives and market trends: * **Growth in Connected TV (CTV) and Mobile App Advertising:** PubMatic consistently highlights strong performance in these high-engagement, first-party data-rich environments. Connected TV (CTV) revenue grew over 50% year-over-year in fiscal year 2025, excluding political ad spend. Mobile app revenue increased more than 25% year-over-year in Q4 2025, representing over 20% of total revenue in 2025. These segments are considered secular growth engines for the company. * **Expansion of AI Capabilities and Solutions (Agentic AI):** The company is prioritizing its AI capabilities, including the launch of AgenticOS, an operating system designed for autonomous ad campaign execution. PubMatic anticipates its AI solutions will provide an incremental and growing tailwind, with nearly 10% of publishers on its platform already generating revenue from these solutions. Emerging revenues, which include new AI solutions, nearly doubled over 2024. * **Diversification of Demand-Side Platform (DSP) Partnerships and Buy-Side Expansion:** PubMatic is actively diversifying its buyer mix by adding new DSP partners, with 50 new integrations completed in fiscal year 2025. Ad spending from performance marketers and mid-market focused DSPs grew 30% year-over-year in Q4 2025. The company also increased its buyer-focused sales team by nearly 20% year-over-year. This strategy aims to broaden revenue growth and enhance the resilience of its model. * **Growth of Emerging Revenue Streams (Activate and Commerce Media):** PubMatic's "emerging revenues," which encompass Activate, commerce media, and new AI solutions, nearly doubled over 2024 and constituted approximately 10% of total revenues. Specifically, the Activate platform experienced over three times growth in activity and 100% year-over-year growth, while commerce media expanded by 80% year-over-year.AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- PubMatic's Board of Directors authorized an additional $100 million for its share repurchase program through the end of 2025 on February 26, 2024. This expanded the previous authorization of $75 million. As of December 31, 2023, the company had used $59.3 million to repurchase 4.0 million shares.
- On May 7, 2025, the Board further increased the share repurchase program by $100 million, bringing the total authorized for buybacks to approximately $130.8 million until December 31, 2026.
- Through March 31, 2025, PubMatic had used $138.2 million to repurchase 8.7 million shares of Class A common stock since the program's inception.
Share Issuance
- PubMatic completed its Initial Public Offering (IPO) in December 2020, offering 2,655,000 shares of Class A common stock at $20.00 per share. Selling stockholders also offered shares, but PubMatic did not receive proceeds from those sales.
- The number of shares outstanding saw a significant increase from 19.98 million in December 2020 to 51.46 million in December 2021 following the IPO.
- In the years following the IPO, the number of outstanding shares decreased, notably by -3.69% in 2023, -5.26% in 2024, and -4.29% in 2025, indicating that share repurchases have been offsetting new issuances like employee stock awards.
Outbound Investments
- PubMatic acquired Martin, an AI-based advertising technology for bidding management, in September 2022 for $65 million.
- This acquisition was intended to bolster PubMatic's data capabilities and led to the subsequent launch of its Activate platform, an end-to-end supply path optimization solution.
Capital Expenditures
- PubMatic's full-year capital expenditures are projected to be approximately $15 million to $19 million for 2026, with a strategic shift in focus towards expanding support for AI workloads rather than increasing ad impression capacity.
- For the full year 2025, the company maintained a capital expenditure projection of $15 million.
- The company significantly reduced total capital expenditures in 2023 by over 70% compared to 2022, primarily through infrastructure optimization initiatives aimed at capacity expansion and software-driven efficiency. Annual capital expenditures were $49 million in 2024, $28 million in 2023, and $39 million in 2022.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| PubMatic Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| How Low Can PubMatic Stock Really Go? | 10/17/2025 | |
| Day 6 of Loss Streak for PubMatic Stock with -29% Return (vs. -43% YTD) [8/12/2025] | 08/13/2025 | |
| Should You Buy PubMatic Stock? | 08/09/2025 | |
| PubMatic (PUBM) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| PubMatic (PUBM) Net Income Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| PubMatic (PUBM) EBITDA Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| PubMatic (PUBM) Debt Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| PubMatic (PUBM) Revenue Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| PubMatic (PUBM) Tax Expense Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| PUBM Stock Down -29% after 6-Day Loss Streak | 08/13/2025 | |
| Market Movers | Winners: GDOT, ULCC, HBI | Losers: PUBM, KODK, FLNC | 08/13/2025 |
Trade Ideas
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04302026 | PLTR | Palantir Technologies | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | ADSK | Autodesk | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.5% | 8.5% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | BSY | Bentley Systems | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.7% | 5.7% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | BL | BlackLine | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.2% | 3.2% | -3.0% |
| 06302021 | PUBM | PubMatic | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | -15.4% | -59.3% | -59.3% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 142.64 |
| Mkt Cap | 1,423.8 |
| Rev LTM | 160,621 |
| Op Inc LTM | 43,012 |
| FCF LTM | 439 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 11,016 |
| CFO LTM | 74,812 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 60,686 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 14.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 13.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 14.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.1% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 20.6% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 53.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 17.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 13.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 33.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 31.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 16.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1,423.8 |
| P/S | 3.6 |
| P/Op Inc | 19.1 |
| P/EBIT | 18.9 |
| P/E | 24.1 |
| P/CFO | 17.4 |
| Total Yield | 3.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.5% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 19.7% |
| 6M Rtn | -3.2% |
| 12M Rtn | -10.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 22.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -5.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 11.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -12.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -37.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -41.9% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $9.72 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.5 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/09/2020 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -28.9% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $9.02 | $8.57 |
| DMA Trend | down | up |
| Distance from DMA | 7.8% | 13.4% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 53.0% | 69.7% |
| Downside Capture | -13.23 | 204.84 |
| Upside Capture | 137.99 | 129.53 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 15.2% | 25.8% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.75 | 0.78 | 1.01 | 1.41 | 1.51 | 1.43 |
| Up Beta | -0.51 | -0.35 | 0.09 | -0.05 | 0.85 | 1.04 |
| Down Beta | 9.15 | -0.38 | 0.94 | 1.39 | 1.55 | 1.47 |
| Up Capture | 196% | 205% | 210% | 247% | 178% | 292% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 17 | 26 | 36 | 61 | 124 | 369 |
| Down Capture | 529% | 115% | 91% | 159% | 159% | 111% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 5 | 17 | 28 | 63 | 125 | 374 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PUBM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PUBM | -15.5% | 69.4% | 0.02 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 51.7% | 20.5% | 1.93 | 19.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 27.4% | 12.1% | 1.71 | 25.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 42.5% | 26.8% | 1.30 | 2.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 45.4% | 18.5% | 1.88 | 4.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.5% | 13.5% | 0.56 | 15.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -23.7% | 41.8% | -0.54 | 15.2% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PUBM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PUBM | -23.2% | 66.6% | -0.12 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 22.0% | 24.8% | 0.78 | 38.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.6% | 17.1% | 0.63 | 40.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.4% | 17.9% | 0.88 | 3.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.9% | 19.4% | 0.45 | 8.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.9% | 18.8% | 0.06 | 27.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.2% | 55.9% | 0.34 | 26.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PUBM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PUBM | -10.3% | 72.8% | 0.04 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 25.0% | 24.4% | 0.92 | 37.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.5% | 17.9% | 0.74 | 37.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.0% | 16.0% | 0.67 | 4.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.3% | 17.9% | 0.38 | 9.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.0% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 26.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.4% | 66.9% | 1.06 | 21.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/7/2026 | 4.9% | -7.0% | |
| 2/26/2026 | 14.6% | 25.5% | 15.8% |
| 11/10/2025 | 43.4% | 20.1% | 22.0% |
| 8/11/2025 | -21.1% | -20.0% | -23.5% |
| 5/8/2025 | 0.8% | 5.0% | 10.1% |
| 2/27/2025 | -23.9% | -28.4% | -33.6% |
| 11/12/2024 | -1.0% | -5.7% | 0.6% |
| 8/8/2024 | -28.3% | -29.3% | -28.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 11 | 12 |
| # Negative | 10 | 11 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 13.7% | 20.1% | 13.0% |
| Median Negative | -15.7% | -16.2% | -15.9% |
| Max Positive | 43.4% | 46.9% | 49.0% |
| Max Negative | -33.7% | -33.1% | -33.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/10/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/11/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/28/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/09/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/7/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Revenue | 68.00 Mil | 69.00 Mil | 70.00 Mil | 17.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 59.00 Mil for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 8.00 Mil | 9.00 Mil | 10.00 Mil | 3500.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 0.25 Mil for Q1 2026 | |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/26/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Revenue | 58.00 Mil | 59.00 Mil | 60.00 Mil | -21.3% | Lowered | Guidance: 75.00 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | -0.50 Mil | 0.25 Mil | 1.00 Mil | -98.8% | Lowered | Guidance: 20.00 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Goel, Rajeev K | CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 5152026 | 9.55 | 44,000 | 420,270 | 202,551 | Form |
| 2 | Goel, Rajeev K | CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 4292026 | 9.78 | 44,000 | 430,144 | 207,310 | Form |
| 3 | Goel, Rajeev K | CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 4142026 | 8.65 | 44,000 | 380,503 | 183,385 | Form |
| 4 | Klimenko, Paulina | CHIEF GROWTH OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 4082026 | 8.44 | 11,784 | 99,492 | 518,704 | Form |
| 5 | Pantelick, Steven | CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 4082026 | 8.44 | 16,282 | 137,469 | 348,856 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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