Medallion Financial (MFIN)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $10.23 | Market Cap: $233.8 MilSector: Financials | Industry: Consumer Finance
Medallion Financial (MFIN)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $10.23Market Cap: $233.8 MilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Consumer Finance
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 24%, Dividend Yield is 4.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 20%, FCF Yield is 54% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.0%, Dist 3Y High is -4.0% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 98% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 54%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 54% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -31%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -12% | Significant short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 24.15 |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 34% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Niche Financial Services. Themes include Specialty Small Business Lending, and Asset-Backed Consumer Lending. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 24%, Dividend Yield is 4.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 20%, FCF Yield is 54% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 54%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 54% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 34% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Niche Financial Services. Themes include Specialty Small Business Lending, and Asset-Backed Consumer Lending. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.0%, Dist 3Y High is -4.0% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -31%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -12% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 98% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 24.15 |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MFIN Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for why Medallion Financial (MFIN) stock moved by -2% for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Medallion Financial's Q3 2025 earnings included a non-recurring charge of $3.5 million. This charge was related to the redemption of Medallion Bank's series F preferred stock, which reduced the reported GAAP net income to $7.8 million, or $0.32 per share.
2. There was a notable decrease in home improvement loan originations. Home improvement loan originations declined to $59.7 million in the third quarter of 2025, down from $96.5 million in the same period a year prior, indicating a potential slowdown in this segment.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MFIN Return | -33% | 18% | 28% | 44% | 0% | 11% | 63% |
| Peers Return | 1% | 28% | -29% | 33% | 27% | 24% | 92% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MFIN Win Rate | 42% | 50% | 50% | 58% | 58% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 50% | 28% | 40% | 45% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MFIN Max Drawdown | -82% | 0% | -2% | -18% | -29% | -15% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -30% | -5% | -34% | -15% | -15% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PRAA, SUIG, AXP, COF, SOFI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MFIN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -41.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 71.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 378 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -81.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 450.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 337 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -49.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 98.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 281 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -71.0% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 244.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1318 days | 1480 days |
Compare to PRAA, SUIG, AXP, COF, SOFI
In The Past
Medallion Financial's stock fell -41.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/21/2022. A -41.7% loss requires a 71.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MFIN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Medallion Financial
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 23.08 |
| Mkt Cap | 34.0 |
| Rev LTM | 2,232 |
| Op Inc LTM | 207 |
| FCF LTM | 65 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 59 |
| CFO LTM | 65 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 59 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 20.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 11.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 24.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 18.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 10.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 38.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 35.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 34.0 |
| P/S | 2.8 |
| P/EBIT | 2.5 |
| P/E | 21.8 |
| P/CFO | 1.9 |
| Total Yield | 4.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 10.7% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 2.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 18.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 23.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 143.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -4.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 4.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 6.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 67.6% |
Segment Financials
Net Income by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recreation | 42 | 50 | 52 | 35 | 25 |
| Taxi Medallion Lending | 17 | 0 | -1 | -58 | -24 |
| Home Improvement | 7 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 4 |
| Commercial Lending | 7 | -1 | 5 | 1 | 2 |
| Corporate and Other Investments | -12 | -11 | -5 | -13 | -9 |
| RPAC Racing, LLC | -4 | 3 | 2 | ||
| Total | 61 | 50 | 58 | -27 | 2 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recreation | 1,298 | 1,155 | 896 | 778 | 707 |
| Home Improvement | 745 | 619 | 372 | 340 | 253 |
| Corporate and Other Investments | 422 | 359 | 459 | 285 | 248 |
| Commercial Lending | 111 | 101 | 104 | 81 | 85 |
| Taxi Medallion Lending | 12 | 25 | 42 | 125 | 217 |
| RPAC Racing, LLC | 34 | 32 | |||
| Total | 2,588 | 2,260 | 1,873 | 1,642 | 1,542 |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3132025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3072024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11062023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8072023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3102023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8082022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3142022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |