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MFA Financial (MFA)

Market Price (3/15/2026): $9.85 | Market Cap: $1.0 Bil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Mortgage REITs

MFA Financial (MFA)

Market Price (3/15/2026): $9.85
Market Cap: $1.0 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Mortgage REITs

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 32%, Dividend Yield is 15%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 28%, FCF Yield is 7.5%		 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -4.0%		 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 631%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%		 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -16%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -29%		 
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 28%		  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Housing & Real Estate. Themes include Residential Real Estate Investment, Mortgage Finance, and Real Estate Debt & Credit. 		  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 32%, Dividend Yield is 15%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 28%, FCF Yield is 7.5%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 28%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Housing & Real Estate. Themes include Residential Real Estate Investment, Mortgage Finance, and Real Estate Debt & Credit.
4 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -4.0%
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -16%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -29%
6 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 631%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

MFA Financial (MFA) stock has gained about 5% since 11/30/2025 because of the following key factors:

1. Strong Q4 2025 Financial Results and Optimistic 2026 Outlook. MFA Financial reported a significant increase in full-year 2025 GAAP net income to $136.5 million, up 57.91% from $86.4 million in 2024. For the fourth quarter of 2025, the company announced distributable earnings of $0.27 per share, meeting analyst expectations, and revenue of $55.48 million, which surpassed estimates. Management expressed an optimistic outlook for 2026, citing a more favorable macro environment with a positively sloped yield curve and declining volatility, anticipating higher earnings and return on equity.

2. Robust Investment Portfolio Growth and Improved Asset Management. MFA's residential investment portfolio expanded to $12.3 billion as of December 31, 2025, from $11.2 billion at the end of Q3 2025. During Q4 2025, the company acquired $1.9 billion in loans and securities, including $1.2 billion of Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities and $443 million of Non-Qualified Mortgage loans. Additionally, MFA successfully resolved over $150 million of delinquent loans in the fourth quarter, freeing up capital for redeployment at mid-teen Return on Equity (ROE).

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The 6.0% change in MFA stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/14/2026 was primarily driven by a 19.5% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)113020253142026Change
Stock Price ($)9.269.826.0%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)25029919.5%
Net Income Margin (%)51.4%59.2%15.3%
P/E Multiple7.55.7-23.5%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1041030.6%
Cumulative Contribution6.0%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

11/30/2025 to 3/14/2026
ReturnCorrelation
MFA6.0% 
Market (SPY)-3.1%28.1%
Sector (XLF)-8.3%32.5%

Fundamental Drivers

The 3.9% change in MFA stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/14/2026 was primarily driven by a 17.4% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)83120253142026Change
Stock Price ($)9.459.823.9%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)25529917.2%
Net Income Margin (%)50.4%59.2%17.4%
P/E Multiple7.65.7-25.0%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1041030.6%
Cumulative Contribution3.9%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

8/31/2025 to 3/14/2026
ReturnCorrelation
MFA3.9% 
Market (SPY)3.0%29.8%
Sector (XLF)-9.1%33.6%

Fundamental Drivers

The 7.2% change in MFA stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/14/2026 was primarily driven by a 25.5% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)22820253142026Change
Stock Price ($)9.169.827.2%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)25329918.1%
Net Income Margin (%)47.2%59.2%25.5%
P/E Multiple8.05.7-28.2%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1041030.6%
Cumulative Contribution7.2%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

2/28/2025 to 3/14/2026
ReturnCorrelation
MFA7.2% 
Market (SPY)12.4%55.3%
Sector (XLF)-5.3%50.8%

Fundamental Drivers

The 38.0% change in MFA stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/14/2026 was primarily driven by a -1.2% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).
(LTM values as of)22820233142026Change
Stock Price ($)7.129.8238.0%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)-85299-453.0%
P/S Multiple-8.63.4-139.6%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)102103-1.2%
Cumulative Contribution38.0%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

2/28/2023 to 3/14/2026
ReturnCorrelation
MFA38.0% 
Market (SPY)73.4%51.3%
Sector (XLF)43.1%48.6%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
MFA Return28%-37%31%3%6%9%25%
Peers Return16%-20%20%4%22%-2%40%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%-1%80%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MFA Win Rate58%42%50%58%50%100% 
Peers Win Rate55%50%53%60%63%40% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%33% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MFA Max Drawdown-6%-55%-11%-7%-17%0% 
Peers Max Drawdown-4%-33%-17%-9%-6%-3% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-1%-25%-1%-2%-15%-2% 

[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: AGNC, NLY, RITM, STWD, BXMT.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/13/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventMFAS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-61.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven158.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-95.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven2130.6%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-22.6%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven29.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-60.0%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven150.0%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days1,480 days

Compare to AGNC, NLY, RITM, STWD, BXMT

In The Past

MFA Financial's stock fell -61.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/12/2022. A -61.3% loss requires a 158.2% gain to breakeven.

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Asset Allocation

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About MFA Financial (MFA)

MFA Financial, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) in the United States. The company invests in residential mortgage assets, including non-agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), agency MBS, and credit risk transfer securities; residential whole loans, including purchased performing loans, purchased credit deteriorated, and non-performing loans; and mortgage servicing rights related assets. The company has elected to be taxed as a REIT and would not be subject to federal income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. MFA Financial, Inc. was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

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  • BlackRock for residential mortgage debt.
  • Vanguard, but its portfolio is solely residential mortgages and mortgage-backed securities.
  • Prologis (a major real estate REIT), but for residential mortgage debt instead of physical properties.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Non-agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS): Investments in securities backed by residential mortgages that do not carry a government guarantee.
  • Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS): Investments in securities backed by residential mortgages that are guaranteed by government-sponsored enterprises.
  • Credit Risk Transfer Securities: Investments in securities that transfer credit risk associated with residential mortgages from government-sponsored enterprises to private investors.
  • Residential Whole Loans: Direct investments in entire residential mortgage loans, including those that are performing, credit-deteriorated, or non-performing.
  • Mortgage Servicing Rights Related Assets: Investments in assets derived from the right to collect mortgage payments and manage the administrative aspects of mortgage loans.

AI Analysis | Feedback

MFA Financial, Inc. (MFA) operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) that invests in residential mortgage assets, including non-agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), agency MBS, credit risk transfer securities, residential whole loans, and mortgage servicing rights related assets.

As an investment company, MFA Financial's business model is centered on generating income from the interest earned on its portfolio of these assets. It does not sell products or services to direct customers in the traditional sense of a customer-vendor relationship.

Therefore, MFA Financial does not have "major customers" in the way that companies selling goods or services do. Its revenue is derived from its investment activities and the performance of its asset portfolio.

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The clear emerging threat for MFA Financial is the increasing impact of climate-related physical risks on residential properties and the mortgage assets backed by them. As extreme weather events such as floods, wildfires, and severe storms become more frequent and intense, certain geographical regions face heightened risks of property damage, increased insurance costs, and potential depreciation in property values. This directly threatens the credit quality and collateral value of MFA Financial's residential whole loans, non-agency mortgage-backed securities, and other residential mortgage assets, potentially leading to higher default rates and reduced asset performance in affected areas.

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Latest Trefis Analyses

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Trade Ideas

Select ideas related to MFA.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
NDAQ_2282026_Insider_Buying_45D_2Buy_200K02282026NDAQNasdaqInsiderInsider Buys 45DStrong Insider Buying
Companies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days		0.0%0.0%0.0%
JEF_2272026_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy02272026JEFJefferies FinancialDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin		0.0%0.0%0.0%
PAYO_2272026_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE02272026PAYOPayoneer GlobalDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap		0.0%0.0%0.0%
FOUR_2272026_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG02272026FOURShift4 PaymentsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap		0.0%0.0%0.0%
COIN_2202026_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE02202026COINCoinbase GlobalDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap		2.6%2.6%-6.5%

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Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MFAAGNCNLYRITMSTWDBXMTMedian
NameMFA Fina.AGNC Inv.Annaly C.Rithm Ca.Starwood.Blacksto. 
Mkt Price9.8210.2321.869.4517.5818.5613.90
Mkt Cap1.011.115.25.16.43.15.8
Rev LTM2991,7972,2372,9818295531,313
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM76653-222-2,936709276176
FCF 3Y Avg1282071,398-1,260610367287
CFO LTM76653693-2,931978276464
CFO 3Y Avg1282072,124-1,216718367287

Growth & Margins

MFAAGNCNLYRITMSTWDBXMTMedian
NameMFA Fina.AGNC Inv.Annaly C.Rithm Ca.Starwood.Blacksto. 
Rev Chg LTM18.1%84.7%90.4%25.7%-13.8%12.1%21.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg128.0%164.9%32.3%-3.7%-16.3%-2.5%14.9%
Rev Chg Q149.1%546.1%101.2%45.4%30.9%39.2%73.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM19.5%88.0%31.4%8.0%8.2%8.8%14.2%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM25.5%36.3%31.0%-98.3%117.9%49.9%33.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg52.5%-0.6%--41.9%79.0%64.2%52.5%
FCF/Rev LTM25.5%36.3%-9.9%-98.5%85.5%49.9%30.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg52.3%-0.6%--43.8%66.4%64.2%52.3%

Valuation

MFAAGNCNLYRITMSTWDBXMTMedian
NameMFA Fina.AGNC Inv.Annaly C.Rithm Ca.Starwood.Blacksto. 
Mkt Cap1.011.115.25.16.43.15.8
P/S3.46.26.81.77.85.65.9
P/EBIT-------
P/E5.76.77.55.815.628.57.1
P/CFO13.317.121.9-1.76.611.312.3
Total Yield32.1%15.0%13.4%17.3%16.8%13.9%15.9%
Dividend Yield14.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%10.4%10.3%5.2%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg12.1%1.6%14.1%-21.7%9.4%11.1%10.2%
D/E6.50.02.16.42.15.23.6
Net D/E6.3-0.01.54.42.05.03.2

Returns

MFAAGNCNLYRITMSTWDBXMTMedian
NameMFA Fina.AGNC Inv.Annaly C.Rithm Ca.Starwood.Blacksto. 
1M Rtn0.1%-9.1%-4.7%-10.6%-2.7%-6.0%-5.3%
3M Rtn6.3%2.3%1.7%-13.0%-2.1%-7.0%-0.2%
6M Rtn4.9%7.5%6.0%-20.2%-9.8%-0.1%2.4%
12M Rtn4.7%15.5%15.9%-11.3%-2.6%-0.7%2.0%
3Y Rtn57.5%61.5%75.2%57.6%34.8%44.4%57.6%
1M Excs Rtn3.4%-7.2%-1.8%-9.3%-0.3%-4.9%-3.3%
3M Excs Rtn7.5%3.4%2.3%-12.1%-1.1%-5.0%0.6%
6M Excs Rtn1.1%4.1%2.4%-24.0%-13.0%-4.0%-1.5%
12M Excs Rtn-14.3%-3.8%-2.7%-30.7%-22.8%-20.4%-17.3%
3Y Excs Rtn-28.6%-22.0%-9.1%-27.6%-49.4%-40.8%-28.1%

Comparison Analyses

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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Investing    -556
Total    -556


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Mortgage-Related Assets7,3966,3706,0667,482 
Lima One3,6324,0012,6191,203 
Corporate381402428454 
Total11,41010,7739,1129,140 


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$9.82 
Market Cap ($ Bil)1.0 
First Trading Date04/13/1998 
Distance from 52W High-4.0% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$9.87$9.14
DMA Trendupup
Distance from DMA-0.5%7.5%
 3M1YR
Volatility20.0%28.0%
Downside Capture24.8591.96
Upside Capture68.6780.20
Correlation (SPY)25.4%55.8%
MFA Betas & Captures as of 2/28/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta0.240.330.350.490.800.94
Up Beta0.30-0.040.200.560.710.83
Down Beta-0.030.720.340.360.890.99
Up Capture43%62%67%53%73%86%
Bmk +ve Days9203170142431
Stock +ve Days14243160126388
Down Capture19%-15%13%52%90%101%
Bmk -ve Days12213054109320
Stock -ve Days7152658117344

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return		Annualized
Volatility		Sharpe
Ratio		Correlation
with MFA
MFA6.8%28.0%0.22-
Sector ETF (XLF)3.6%19.3%0.0652.8%
Equity (SPY)19.6%18.9%0.8155.9%
Gold (GLD)71.9%26.3%2.0511.1%
Commodities (DBC)19.3%17.3%0.8922.0%
Real Estate (VNQ)6.2%16.3%0.1965.2%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-15.3%44.2%-0.2524.5%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return		Annualized
Volatility		Sharpe
Ratio		Correlation
with MFA
MFA2.7%31.8%0.14-
Sector ETF (XLF)9.3%18.7%0.3851.5%
Equity (SPY)13.1%17.0%0.6154.5%
Gold (GLD)24.1%17.3%1.1415.0%
Commodities (DBC)11.2%19.0%0.4715.6%
Real Estate (VNQ)4.8%18.8%0.1662.2%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)6.3%56.7%0.3323.2%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return		Annualized
Volatility		Sharpe
Ratio		Correlation
with MFA
MFA1.9%84.6%0.34-
Sector ETF (XLF)12.5%22.2%0.5221.1%
Equity (SPY)14.5%17.9%0.7018.8%
Gold (GLD)14.4%15.6%0.77-2.9%
Commodities (DBC)8.6%17.6%0.409.0%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.6%20.7%0.2329.1%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)67.4%66.8%1.074.7%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date2272026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2.2 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 2152026-17.5%
Average Daily Volume1.4 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.6 days
Basic Shares Quantity103.1 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares2.1%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
6/3/202019.6%42.8%29.4%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive111
# Negative000
Median Positive19.6%42.8%29.4%
Median Negative   
Max Positive19.6%42.8%29.4%
Max Negative   

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
12/31/202502/20/202610-K
09/30/202511/06/202510-Q
06/30/202508/06/202510-Q
03/31/202505/06/202510-Q
12/31/202402/20/202510-K
09/30/202411/06/202410-Q
06/30/202408/08/202410-Q
03/31/202405/06/202410-Q
12/31/202302/22/202410-K
09/30/202311/07/202310-Q
06/30/202308/03/202310-Q
03/31/202305/04/202310-Q
12/31/202202/24/202310-K
09/30/202211/03/202210-Q
06/30/202208/04/202210-Q
03/31/202205/04/202210-Q

Insider Activity

Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value		Value of
Held Shares		Form
1Lin, MeiSr. VP & Co-ControllerDirectSell916202510.102,77528,028108,858Form

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