Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 29%, Dividend Yield is 15%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 25%, FCF Yield is 16%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -4.3%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 661%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 60%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 60%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -36%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -40%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -25%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.9%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 29%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Housing & Real Estate. Themes include Residential Real Estate Investment, Mortgage Finance, and Real Estate Debt & Credit.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 29%, Dividend Yield is 15%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 25%, FCF Yield is 16%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 60%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 60%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 29%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Housing & Real Estate. Themes include Residential Real Estate Investment, Mortgage Finance, and Real Estate Debt & Credit.
4 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -4.3%
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -36%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -40%
6 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 661%
7 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -25%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.9%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

MFA Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are key points highlighting potential factors for MFA Financial's stock movement during the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:

1. Analyst Downgrade: On July 10, 2025, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods downgraded MFA Financial's outlook from "Outperform" to "Market Perform," potentially influencing investor sentiment negatively.

2. Underperforming Earnings in Earlier Quarters: MFA Financial reported a notable miss in its First Quarter 2025 earnings per share (EPS), with $0.23 against a consensus of $0.37, and a miss in Second Quarter 2025 EPS, with $0.21 against a consensus of $0.22.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MFA Return-41%28%-37%31%3%4%-34%
Peers Return-14%10%-19%2%6%2%-15%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MFA Win Rate75%58%42%50%58%40% 
Peers Win Rate53%57%50%45%55%56% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MFA Max Drawdown-95%-6%-55%-11%-7%-17% 
Peers Max Drawdown-64%-6%-34%-22%-11%-21% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DX, IVR, RC, LOAN, NLY.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventMFAS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-61.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven158.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-95.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven2130.6%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-22.6%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven29.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-60.0%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven150.0%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days1480 days

Compare to DX, IVR, RC, LOAN, NLY


In The Past

MFA Financial's stock fell -61.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/12/2022. A -61.3% loss requires a 158.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About MFA Financial (MFA)

Better Bets than MFA Financial (MFA)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MFA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for MFA Financial

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MFADXIVRRCLOANNLYMedian
NameMFA Fina.Dynex Ca.Invesco .Ready Ca.Manhatta.Annaly C. 
Mkt Price9.5813.898.192.784.7322.828.88
Mkt Cap1.01.90.60.50.115.00.8
Rev LTM250230722271,703151
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM15012215947251,953155
FCF 3Y Avg1187119632951,260157
CFO LTM15012215947252,857155
CFO 3Y Avg1187119632951,976157

Growth & Margins

MFADXIVRRCLOANNLYMedian
NameMFA Fina.Dynex Ca.Invesco .Ready Ca.Manhatta.Annaly C. 
Rev Chg LTM-25.4%87.1%-29.9%-73.3%-3.5%473.5%-14.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg701.3%63.4%241.0%-52.8%2.5%143.3%103.3%
Rev Chg Q-5.9%309.0%27.8%-29.1%-9.2%637.1%10.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-1.9%113.8%21.1%-45.4%-2.2%81.6%9.6%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM60.0%52.8%220.1%2,181.7%71.0%167.8%119.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg59.8%77.6%790.7%851.6%70.9%-77.6%
FCF/Rev LTM60.0%52.8%220.1%2,181.7%71.0%114.7%92.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg59.4%77.6%790.7%851.6%70.8%-77.6%

Valuation

MFADXIVRRCLOANNLYMedian
NameMFA Fina.Dynex Ca.Invesco .Ready Ca.Manhatta.Annaly C. 
Mkt Cap1.01.90.60.50.115.00.8
P/S3.87.37.129.38.87.87.5
P/EBIT-------
P/E7.49.09.6-2.011.98.99.0
P/CFO6.313.73.21.312.44.65.5
Total Yield28.9%11.1%10.4%-27.7%16.8%11.3%11.2%
Dividend Yield15.4%0.0%0.0%21.4%8.4%0.0%4.2%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg11.3%6.8%40.1%36.2%8.5%11.4%11.4%
D/E6.90.00.06.00.22.21.2
Net D/E6.6-0.3-0.15.70.22.21.2

Returns

MFADXIVRRCLOANNLYMedian
NameMFA Fina.Dynex Ca.Invesco .Ready Ca.Manhatta.Annaly C. 
1M Rtn6.0%5.9%8.6%-4.1%-4.8%7.1%6.0%
3M Rtn-2.4%14.6%8.1%-32.2%-10.4%9.9%2.9%
6M Rtn9.2%24.9%19.5%-29.7%-3.4%29.0%14.4%
12M Rtn0.8%30.4%19.1%-56.6%-6.1%33.1%9.9%
3Y Rtn29.1%60.5%3.7%-68.6%5.7%58.4%17.4%
1M Excs Rtn6.0%6.0%8.7%-4.1%-4.8%7.2%6.0%
3M Excs Rtn-9.4%7.8%2.0%-38.0%-15.6%3.0%-3.7%
6M Excs Rtn-5.5%10.1%4.8%-44.5%-18.1%14.3%-0.3%
12M Excs Rtn-13.8%15.8%4.5%-70.9%-17.7%18.2%-4.6%
3Y Excs Rtn-40.2%-8.7%-65.4%-141.0%-64.9%-8.9%-52.5%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Investing   -556433
Total   -556433


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Mortgage-Related Assets6,3706,0667,482  
Lima One4,0012,6191,203  
Corporate402428454  
Total10,7739,1129,140  


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,600,175
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-9.4%
Average Daily Volume1,318,693
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.97
Basic Shares Quantity103,683,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025506202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024220202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241106202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024506202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023222202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231107202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022224202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022504202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021223202210-K 12/31/2021