Tearsheet

Moelis (MC)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $69.3 | Market Cap: $5.2 Bil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Investment Banking & Brokerage

Moelis (MC)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $69.3
Market Cap: $5.2 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Investment Banking & Brokerage

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.1%, Dividend Yield is 3.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.9%, FCF Yield is 9.7%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -4.9%
Key risks
MC key risks include [1] highly inconsistent revenues dependent on the cyclical and unpredictable timing of M&A transactions and [2] intense competition to attract and retain the top advisory talent essential for its success.
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 51%
  
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36%
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 38%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Equity, Private Credit, and Venture Capital.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.1%, Dividend Yield is 3.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.9%, FCF Yield is 9.7%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 51%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 38%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Equity, Private Credit, and Venture Capital.
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -4.9%
6 Key risks
MC key risks include [1] highly inconsistent revenues dependent on the cyclical and unpredictable timing of M&A transactions and [2] intense competition to attract and retain the top advisory talent essential for its success.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

MC Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Analyst Downgrades and Revised Price Targets

Several analysts adjusted their ratings and price targets for Moelis during the period from late August to mid-December 2025. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, for instance, downgraded the stock from "Outperform" to "Market Perform" on December 16, 2025, and had also lowered price targets in October 2025. Additionally, Zacks Research cut its rating from a "strong-buy" to a "hold" on October 8, 2025. UBS initiated coverage with a "Neutral" rating on December 11, 2025. These adjustments by research firms could have contributed to downward pressure on the stock. 2. Mixed Q3 2025 Revenue Performance

While Moelis reported strong Q3 2025 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.68, which beat analyst estimates, some reports indicated that the company slightly missed certain Wall Street revenue expectations for the quarter. Moelis reported $356.9 million in revenue, while some analysts had estimated $388.3 million. This slight revenue miss, despite overall year-over-year growth, could have been perceived negatively by some investors.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MC Return63%49%-34%55%37%-2%231%
Peers Return26%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MC Win Rate67%75%33%50%50%58% 
Peers Win Rate63%68% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MC Max Drawdown-23%-2%-44%-8%-12%-33% 
Peers Max Drawdown-26% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: EVR, LAZ, NAVI, MS, GS. See MC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventMCS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-54.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven121.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven771 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-40.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven67.6%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven258 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-55.2%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven123.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven734 days120 days

Compare to EVR, LAZ, NAVI, MS, GS


In The Past

Moelis's stock fell -54.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/5/2021. A -54.9% loss requires a 121.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Moelis (MC)

Better Bets than Moelis (MC)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.1%5.1%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.4%-2.4%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.6%4.6%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-9.0%-9.0%-11.0%
MC_8312022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield08312022MCMoelisDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.5%22.2%-19.0%
MC_2282022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield02282022MCMoelisDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-8.6%-4.8%-28.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.1%5.1%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.4%-2.4%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.6%4.6%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-9.0%-9.0%-11.0%
MC_8312022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield08312022MCMoelisDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.5%22.2%-19.0%
MC_2282022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield02282022MCMoelisDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-8.6%-4.8%-28.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Moelis

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MCEVRLAZNAVIMSGSMedian
NameMoelis Evercore Lazard Navient Morgan S.Goldman . 
Mkt Price69.38334.0250.3913.20174.80872.33122.09
Mkt Cap5.212.94.91.3274.6270.19.1
Rev LTM1,4683,5433,05372464,24758,6983,298
Op Inc LTM277-394---336
FCF LTM5231,057439275-6,74715,769481
FCF 3Y Avg296717405536-23,827-31,511350
CFO LTM5531,135482275-3,67917,888518
CFO 3Y Avg315756447536-20,550-29,280381

Growth & Margins

MCEVRLAZNAVIMSGSMedian
NameMoelis Evercore Lazard Navient Morgan S.Goldman . 
Rev Chg LTM51.2%27.1%-0.9%-23.1%17.6%15.2%16.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg12.1%7.0%1.1%-27.7%7.6%6.4%6.7%
Rev Chg Q30.4%41.5%-3.7%-9.0%19.1%19.6%19.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM6.0%9.4%-1.0%-2.2%4.5%4.4%4.4%
Op Mgn LTM18.9%-12.9%---15.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg7.3%-7.8%---7.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM1.2%--1.8%----0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM37.7%32.0%15.8%38.0%-5.7%30.5%31.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg27.0%24.9%14.9%53.4%-38.8%-60.4%19.9%
FCF/Rev LTM35.7%29.8%14.4%38.0%-10.5%26.9%28.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg25.2%23.6%13.4%53.4%-44.6%-64.7%18.5%

Valuation

MCEVRLAZNAVIMSGSMedian
NameMoelis Evercore Lazard Navient Morgan S.Goldman . 
Mkt Cap5.212.94.91.3274.6270.19.1
P/S3.73.71.71.83.94.23.7
P/EBIT19.4-11.9---15.6
P/E22.924.718.9-25.815.414.817.2
P/CFO9.711.510.74.7-67.913.810.2
Total Yield8.1%5.1%8.8%1.2%6.5%6.8%6.6%
Dividend Yield3.7%1.1%3.6%5.0%0.0%0.0%2.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg6.4%7.6%-31.4%-15.6%-22.7%6.4%
D/E0.00.10.435.51.41.50.9
Net D/E-0.0-0.00.235.01.00.80.5

Returns

MCEVRLAZNAVIMSGSMedian
NameMoelis Evercore Lazard Navient Morgan S.Goldman . 
1M Rtn14.5%13.0%5.8%17.9%9.6%13.0%13.0%
3M Rtn-7.1%-3.9%-8.4%2.0%11.7%10.4%-0.9%
6M Rtn25.2%36.0%18.1%0.9%33.6%38.7%29.4%
12M Rtn-2.9%16.5%-0.4%-4.7%40.7%54.9%8.1%
3Y Rtn95.5%226.9%--9.6%122.7%171.6%122.7%
1M Excs Rtn13.7%12.2%5.0%17.2%8.9%12.3%12.3%
3M Excs Rtn-11.2%-9.0%-12.4%-1.1%9.1%7.6%-5.1%
6M Excs Rtn12.8%23.7%5.7%-11.5%21.2%26.4%17.0%
12M Excs Rtn-13.4%3.3%-11.9%-17.6%30.0%41.0%-4.3%
3Y Excs Rtn19.6%153.7%--79.0%43.9%90.6%43.9%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Advisory business that offers clients, including corporations, financial sponsors, governments and8559851,541943747
Total8559851,541943747


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity5,009,369
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520253.6%
Average Daily Volume759,326
Days-to-Cover Short Interest6.60
Basic Shares Quantity75,438,951
Short % of Basic Shares6.6%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/29/2025-3.8%-3.8%-3.5%
7/24/2025-0.9%-1.3%3.1%
4/23/20250.9%2.7%9.8%
2/5/20251.9%-4.6%-21.7%
10/23/2024-1.9%-2.0%10.4%
7/24/20246.4%8.3%5.2%
4/24/2024-6.9%-6.6%6.2%
2/7/20241.0%-1.0%-1.7%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive10713
# Negative141711
Median Positive2.5%2.7%5.4%
Median Negative-5.1%-3.8%-4.5%
Max Positive6.4%12.3%18.7%
Max Negative-9.4%-11.7%-21.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251030202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025725202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025424202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024227202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241024202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024725202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024425202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023222202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231103202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023727202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023427202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022223202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022728202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022428202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021223202210-K 12/31/2021