Raymond James Financial (RJF)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $161.06 | Market Cap: $32.1 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Investment Banking & Brokerage
Raymond James Financial (RJF)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $161.06Market Cap: $32.1 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Investment Banking & Brokerage
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.2% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -22% | Key risksRJF key risks include [1] significant financial impacts from specific legal and compliance matters, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 2.4 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.2 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 27% | ||
| Capital ratio is >2x the minimum of 6%Tier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 13% | ||
| Uninsured deposits are lowUninsured Deposits Ratio %Fraction of deposits that exceed the insurance deposit thresholds. For example, the FDIC protects deposits up to $250K. A high uninsured deposits ratio indicates large accounts and greater potential exposure to bank run risk. is 4.8% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Wealth Management Technology, Private Equity, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.2% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 2.4 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.2 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 27% |
| Capital ratio is >2x the minimum of 6%Tier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 13% |
| Uninsured deposits are lowUninsured Deposits Ratio %Fraction of deposits that exceed the insurance deposit thresholds. For example, the FDIC protects deposits up to $250K. A high uninsured deposits ratio indicates large accounts and greater potential exposure to bank run risk. is 4.8% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Wealth Management Technology, Private Equity, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -22% |
| Key risksRJF key risks include [1] significant financial impacts from specific legal and compliance matters, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
RJF Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining the approximate -4.7% stock movement for Raymond James Financial (RJF) from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:
1. Significant Insider Selling Activity: An insider at Raymond James Financial sold shares worth over $21 million around November 19, 2025. This substantial transaction by a company insider could have signaled a lack of confidence in the stock's near-term prospects, contributing to selling pressure.
2. Decline in Fiscal Q3 2025 Profitability and Pre-tax Margin Contraction: Although reported on July 23, 2025, the market likely continued to assess the implications of Raymond James Financial's fiscal third-quarter 2025 results, which showed a 13% year-over-year decline in pre-tax income and an 8% fall in diluted earnings per share. The pre-tax margin also contracted to 16.6% from 20.0% in the prior year, primarily due to increased expenses, including a $58 million reserve for a legal settlement.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| RJF Return | 9% | 59% | 8% | 6% | 41% | 6% | 196% |
| Peers Return | 22% | 52% | 3% | 10% | 38% | 21% | 252% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| RJF Win Rate | 67% | 67% | 58% | 42% | 67% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 70% | 55% | 53% | 70% | 57% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| RJF Max Drawdown | -38% | -1% | -14% | -22% | -4% | -20% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -48% | -3% | -23% | -18% | -8% | -18% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SF, LPLA, AMP, MS, SCHW. See RJF Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | RJF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -32.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 322 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -45.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 83.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 290 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -31.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 745 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -70.0% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 233.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 707 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to BAC, WFC, MS, GS, C
In The Past
Raymond James Financial's stock fell -32.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/10/2022. A -32.7% loss requires a 48.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to RJF. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.6% | 14.6% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.2% | -4.2% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.4% | 4.4% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -10.5% | -10.5% | -11.0% |
| 09302022 | RJF | Raymond James Financial | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -4.8% | 3.3% | -14.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.6% | 14.6% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.2% | -4.2% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.4% | 4.4% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -10.5% | -10.5% | -11.0% |
| 09302022 | RJF | Raymond James Financial | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -4.8% | 3.3% | -14.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Raymond James Financial
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 167.91 |
| Mkt Cap | 40.9 |
| Rev LTM | 16,598 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,473 |
| FCF LTM | -152 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 480 |
| CFO LTM | 203 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 609 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 15.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 18.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 9.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 13.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -3.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 7.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 5.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 40.9 |
| P/S | 2.6 |
| P/EBIT | 15.1 |
| P/E | 16.9 |
| P/CFO | -6.9 |
| Total Yield | 6.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.9% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | -0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 6.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 5.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 8.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 13.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 68.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 6.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 3.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -3.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 0.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -9.3% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/22/2025 | -0.6% | -4.7% | -8.9% |
| 7/23/2025 | 3.7% | 5.3% | 0.7% |
| 4/23/2025 | 1.4% | 1.3% | 8.2% |
| 1/29/2025 | -0.8% | -3.7% | -10.1% |
| 10/23/2024 | 7.3% | 8.5% | 19.2% |
| 7/24/2024 | 5.2% | 3.4% | 3.6% |
| 4/24/2024 | -4.4% | -3.9% | -3.3% |
| 1/24/2024 | 1.2% | -2.1% | 5.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 13 | 15 |
| # Negative | 10 | 9 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 3.7% | 4.4% | 8.2% |
| Median Negative | -3.2% | -4.7% | -7.9% |
| Max Positive | 7.3% | 11.4% | 23.3% |
| Max Negative | -7.8% | -12.5% | -10.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11252025 | 10-K 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2072025 | 10-Q 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11262024 | 10-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2072024 | 10-Q 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11212023 | 10-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5082023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2032023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11222022 | 10-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8082022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5092022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2082022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |