Raymond James Financial (RJF)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $161.35 | Market Cap: $32.5 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Investment Banking & Brokerage
Raymond James Financial (RJF)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $161.35Market Cap: $32.5 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Investment Banking & Brokerage
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Capital ratio is >2x the minimum of 6%Tier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 13% | |
| Uninsured deposits are lowUninsured Deposits Ratio %Fraction of deposits that exceed the insurance deposit thresholds. For example, the FDIC protects deposits up to $250K. A high uninsured deposits ratio indicates large accounts and greater potential exposure to bank run risk. is 4.8% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Wealth Management Technology, Private Equity, Show more. |
| Capital ratio is >2x the minimum of 6%Tier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 13% |
| Uninsured deposits are lowUninsured Deposits Ratio %Fraction of deposits that exceed the insurance deposit thresholds. For example, the FDIC protects deposits up to $250K. A high uninsured deposits ratio indicates large accounts and greater potential exposure to bank run risk. is 4.8% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Wealth Management Technology, Private Equity, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
RJF Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the stock movement for Raymond James Financial (RJF) during the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, contributing to a -6% stock decline:
1. 1. Post-Earnings Stock Decline: Despite reporting strong fiscal fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on October 22, 2025, which surpassed analyst expectations, Raymond James Financial's stock experienced a significant decline afterward. By November 21, 2025, the stock was reported to be down 8.3% since its last earnings report, indicating that the initial positive market reaction was not sustained.
2. 2. Underperformance Compared to Broader Market: Over the past year and year-to-date in 2025, Raymond James Financial's shares underperformed both the broader S&P 500 Index and the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF), suggesting a relative weakness in its market position. This consistent underperformance can contribute to negative investor sentiment and downward pressure on the stock.
3.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| RJF Return | 9% | 59% | 8% | 6% | 41% | 2% | 185% |
| Peers Return | -3% | 41% | -15% | 15% | 43% | 37% | 160% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| RJF Win Rate | 67% | 67% | 58% | 42% | 67% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 63% | 45% | 52% | 63% | 68% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| RJF Max Drawdown | -38% | -1% | -14% | -22% | -4% | -20% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -50% | -2% | -27% | -15% | -5% | -18% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BAC, WFC, MS, GS, C. See RJF Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | RJF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -32.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 322 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -45.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 83.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 290 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -31.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 745 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -70.0% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 233.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 707 days | 1480 days |
Compare to BAC, WFC, MS, GS, C
In The Past
Raymond James Financial's stock fell -32.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/10/2022. A -32.7% loss requires a 48.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to RJF. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| 09302022 | RJF | Raymond James Financial | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -4.8% | 3.3% | -14.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| 09302022 | RJF | Raymond James Financial | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -4.8% | 3.3% | -14.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Raymond James Financial
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Returns
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Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2072025 | 10-Q 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11262024 | 10-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2072024 | 10-Q 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11212023 | 10-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5082023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2032023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11222022 | 10-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8082022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5092022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2082022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11232021 | 10-K 9/30/2021 |
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