Leslies (LESL)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $1.99 | Market Cap: $18.5 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Other Specialty Retail
Leslies (LESL)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $1.99Market Cap: $18.5 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Other Specialty Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -80% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -141%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -168% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 1274% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Water Infrastructure. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, and Water Treatment & Delivery. | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.4%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -12% | |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.9% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -112% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 106% | ||
| Key risksLESL key risks include [1] a precarious financial position due to high debt levels and credit rating downgrades, Show more. |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -80% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Water Infrastructure. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, and Water Treatment & Delivery. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -141%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -168% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 1274% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.4%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -12% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.9% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -112% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 106% |
| Key risksLESL key risks include [1] a precarious financial position due to high debt levels and credit rating downgrades, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
LESL Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The public company Leslie's (LESL) has experienced significant stock challenges due to a combination of macroeconomic headwinds, operational difficulties, and shifting consumer behavior. The requested period of 8/31/2025 to today (December 18, 2025) is in the future. However, based on the most recent available information, key factors contributing to a challenging outlook and past declines for LESL include:
1. Persistent Weakness in Consumer Spending and Macroeconomic Headwinds: High interest rates, a soft housing market, and weak discretionary spending have significantly impacted Leslie's, as consumers delay large purchases and pool maintenance due to economic pressures. This has led to declining revenue and profitability for the company.
2. Declining Sales and Profitability Due to Unfavorable Weather and Competition: Leslie's has faced revenue declines, with a 12.2% decrease in sales reported for Q3 fiscal year 2025, largely attributed to unusually wet and cool weather disrupting the peak pool season. Increased competition and price reductions, particularly in chemicals, have also compressed gross margins and led to lower profits.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LESL Return | � | -15% | -48% | -43% | -68% | -95% | � |
| Peers Return | � | � | -48% | 17% | 38% | -7% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LESL Win Rate | 50% | 58% | 33% | 17% | 33% | 8% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | 65% | 27% | 52% | 60% | 45% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LESL Max Drawdown | � | -28% | -49% | -64% | -70% | -95% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | -55% | -10% | -13% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: POOL, HAYW, SWIM, HD, LOW.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LESL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -85.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 605.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -20.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 28 days | 148 days |
Compare to TSCO, ULTA, CHWY, BBWI, WINA
In The Past
Leslies's stock fell -85.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/27/2021. A -85.8% loss requires a 605.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Leslies Earnings Notes | ||
| Is Leslies Stock Built to Withstand More Downside? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to LESL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.3% | 15.3% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.3% | 15.3% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Leslies
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 126.03 |
| Mkt Cap | 6.1 |
| Rev LTM | 3,273 |
| Op Inc LTM | 410 |
| FCF LTM | 293 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 399 |
| CFO LTM | 338 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 444 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -5.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 11.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 12.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 9.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 6.1 |
| P/S | 1.9 |
| P/EBIT | 15.2 |
| P/E | 22.1 |
| P/CFO | 17.1 |
| Total Yield | 4.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.7% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 0.9% |
| 3M Rtn | -15.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 7.4% |
| 12M Rtn | -13.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 23.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 0.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -17.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -4.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -24.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -45.6% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 12/2/2025 | -20.9% | -15.9% | |
| 8/6/2025 | -17.8% | -21.0% | -4.5% |
| 5/8/2025 | 4.7% | 21.6% | 1.4% |
| 2/6/2025 | -26.8% | -29.0% | -57.1% |
| 11/25/2024 | -30.2% | -31.3% | -35.3% |
| 8/7/2024 | 14.5% | 9.4% | 8.0% |
| 5/8/2024 | 10.7% | 14.3% | 9.2% |
| 11/28/2023 | -10.1% | -11.2% | 22.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 5 | 7 | 7 |
| # Negative | 12 | 10 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 4.7% | 9.4% | 8.0% |
| Median Negative | -9.6% | -15.3% | -9.6% |
| Max Positive | 14.5% | 21.6% | 24.1% |
| Max Negative | -30.2% | -42.8% | -57.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/28/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/29/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2062025 | 10-Q 12/28/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11272024 | 10-K 9/28/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/29/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2022024 | 10-Q 12/30/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11292023 | 10-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 7/1/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5052023 | 10-Q 4/1/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2032023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11302022 | 10-K 10/1/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 7/2/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 4/2/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2042022 | 10-Q 1/1/2022 |
| 9302021 | 12102021 | 10-K 10/2/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |