Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Luxury Consumer Goods, and Active Lifestyle & Home Recreation.
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -9.3%
1  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.4%
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Luxury Consumer Goods, and Active Lifestyle & Home Recreation.
1 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -9.3%
2 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.4%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

SWIM Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Latham Group (SWIM) experienced a stock movement for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025. Here are key points that likely contributed to the stock's performance: 1. Missed Q3 2025 Earnings Estimates: Latham Group reported its Q3 2025 earnings on November 4, 2025, with an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $0.07, missing analysts' consensus estimates of $0.10. Quarterly revenue also fell short at $161.90 million, compared to expectations of $165.35 million. This 30% negative surprise in EPS and a 2.09% shortfall in revenue likely contributed to a decline in stock price.

2. Stock Price Decline Post-Earnings: Following the Q3 2025 earnings release on November 4, 2025, Latham's stock saw an immediate decline of 0.96%, closing at $7.27. While net sales increased 7.6% year-over-year and adjusted EBITDA surged by 28.5%, the missed EPS and revenue forecasts raised near-term concerns among investors.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
SWIM Return---87%-18%165%3%-71%
Peers Return41%55%-11%62%9%12%282%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
SWIM Win Rate-38%25%42%67%60% 
Peers Win Rate65%63%43%63%55%54% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
SWIM Max Drawdown---89%-34%-16%-32% 
Peers Max Drawdown-37%-3%-37%-8%-12%-14% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WMS, WTS, UFPI, GFF, TT.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventSWIMS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-93.5%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1449.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days

Compare to WMS, WTS, UFPI, GFF, TT


In The Past

Latham's stock fell -93.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/17/2021. A -93.5% loss requires a 1449.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Latham (SWIM)

Better Bets than Latham (SWIM)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to SWIM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
9.5%9.5%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
7.5%7.5%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.8%2.8%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
0.0%0.0%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
9.5%9.5%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
7.5%7.5%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.8%2.8%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
0.0%0.0%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Latham

Peers to compare with:

Financials

SWIMWMSWTSUFPIGFFTTMedian
NameLatham Advanced.Watts Wa.UFP Indu.Griffon Trane Te. 
Mkt Price7.16150.05273.9290.7573.25404.41120.40
Mkt Cap0.811.79.25.13.390.07.1
Rev LTM5332,9872,3546,4532,51721,0512,752
Op Inc LTM286674473964433,956445
FCF LTM245293442722942,533319
FCF 3Y Avg554943185413382,431416
CFO LTM467413875443552,936465
CFO 3Y Avg826933527673982,777546

Growth & Margins

SWIMWMSWTSUFPIGFFTTMedian
NameLatham Advanced.Watts Wa.UFP Indu.Griffon Trane Te. 
Rev Chg LTM4.1%2.5%4.2%-3.9%-3.4%8.6%3.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-9.3%-2.0%6.5%-12.5%-2.4%10.8%-2.2%
Rev Chg Q7.6%8.7%12.5%-5.4%-5.3%5.5%6.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.2%2.3%3.0%-1.4%-1.3%1.5%1.8%
Op Mgn LTM5.3%22.3%19.0%6.1%17.6%18.8%18.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg3.5%23.6%17.8%7.8%14.3%17.4%15.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM1.4%0.1%0.1%-0.3%1.2%0.4%0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM8.7%24.8%16.4%8.4%14.1%13.9%14.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg14.9%23.8%16.0%10.9%15.2%14.4%15.0%
FCF/Rev LTM4.5%17.7%14.6%4.2%11.7%12.0%11.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg10.1%17.0%14.4%7.6%12.8%12.6%12.7%

Valuation

SWIMWMSWTSUFPIGFFTTMedian
NameLatham Advanced.Watts Wa.UFP Indu.Griffon Trane Te. 
Mkt Cap0.811.79.25.13.390.07.1
P/S1.73.64.00.81.34.52.6
P/EBIT29.615.521.612.115.324.018.5
P/E-80.423.528.816.346.932.026.2
P/CFO19.214.624.29.79.232.016.9
Total Yield-1.2%4.7%4.2%7.7%3.3%4.0%4.1%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.5%0.7%1.6%1.2%0.9%0.8%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg11.6%4.8%4.5%8.5%12.8%3.4%6.6%
D/E0.40.10.00.10.50.00.1
Net D/E0.30.1-0.0-0.10.50.00.0

Returns

SWIMWMSWTSUFPIGFFTTMedian
NameLatham Advanced.Watts Wa.UFP Indu.Griffon Trane Te. 
1M Rtn-0.6%10.7%-0.1%-0.5%-0.5%-6.6%-0.5%
3M Rtn-10.5%4.3%-1.9%-11.3%-7.8%-1.9%-4.8%
6M Rtn23.7%30.9%14.2%-6.1%4.9%-5.7%9.5%
12M Rtn10.5%14.3%27.7%-30.1%-10.6%-2.2%4.1%
3Y Rtn132.5%69.2%82.8%15.5%132.5%137.5%107.6%
1M Excs Rtn-1.8%9.4%-1.4%-1.8%-1.8%-7.9%-1.8%
3M Excs Rtn-18.9%-4.6%-7.9%-18.0%-15.5%-8.1%-11.8%
6M Excs Rtn8.2%15.4%-1.3%-21.6%-10.5%-21.2%-5.9%
12M Excs Rtn-5.2%-0.8%15.1%-45.2%-23.9%-15.0%-10.1%
3Y Excs Rtn41.1%-10.2%9.6%-56.4%56.4%66.5%25.4%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity3,100,138
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-4.5%
Average Daily Volume768,127
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.04
Basic Shares Quantity116,603,331
Short % of Basic Shares2.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/27/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/28/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/29/2025
12312024305202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241106202410-Q 9/28/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/29/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/30/2024
12312023313202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231107202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 7/1/2023
3312023509202310-Q 4/1/2023
12312022307202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221110202210-Q 10/1/2022
6302022811202210-Q 7/2/2022
3312022512202210-Q 4/2/2022
12312021310202210-K 12/31/2021