Hayward (HAYW)
Market Price (11/18/2025): $15.31 | Market Cap: $3.3 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Electrical Components & Equipment
Hayward (HAYW)
Market Price (11/18/2025): $15.31Market Cap: $3.3 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Electrical Components & Equipment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -9.0%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -22% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.0% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.8% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 34% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Water Infrastructure, Electrification of Everything, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Water Treatment & Delivery, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.8% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 34% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Water Infrastructure, Electrification of Everything, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Water Treatment & Delivery, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -9.0%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -22% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.0% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
HAYW Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Hayward (HAYW) experienced a -0.6% stock movement from July 31, 2025, to November 18, 2025. This period was marked by significant corporate news, primarily the company's third-quarter fiscal year 2025 earnings report.
1. Strong Third Quarter Earnings Beat Expectations: Hayward Holdings reported robust financial results for the third quarter of its 2025 fiscal year, which concluded on September 27, 2025. The company surpassed analyst estimates for both revenue and earnings per share. Net sales increased by 7% year-over-year to $244.3 million, exceeding the consensus estimate of approximately $236.8 million. Adjusted diluted EPS rose by 27.3% to $0.14, comfortably beating the analyst estimate of $0.12. This strong performance was attributed to positive net pricing, increased sales volume, and favorable foreign currency translation, along with operational efficiencies and disciplined cost management.
2. Increased Full-Year 2025 Guidance: Following the impressive third-quarter results, Hayward's management raised its financial guidance for the full 2025 fiscal year. The company now expects net sales in the range of $1.095 billion to $1.110 billion, an increase from the prior guidance of $1.070 billion to $1.100 billion. Adjusted EBITDA guidance was also raised to a range of $292 million to $297 million, up from the previous $280 million to $290 million range. This upward revision signaled increased confidence in business momentum and ongoing demand for Hayward's products.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HAYW Return | - | - | -64% | 45% | 12% | 0% | -42% |
| Peers Return | -8% | 1% | 19% | 45% | 50% | -24% | 81% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 107% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HAYW Win Rate | - | 78% | 17% | 58% | 58% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 8% | 15% | 33% | 27% | 65% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HAYW Max Drawdown | - | - | -69% | 0% | -13% | -26% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -14% | -4% | -22% | -22% | -14% | -49% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: POWL, ADSE, CCTG, ELPW, EPOW.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | HAYW | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -70.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 238.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to POWL, ADSE, CCTG, ELPW, EPOW
In The Past
Hayward's stock fell -70.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/16/2021. A -70.5% loss requires a 238.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Hayward Earnings Notes | |||
| Hayward Stock Drop Looks Sharp, But How Deep Can It Go? | Return | ||
| Hayward vs Apollo Asset Management: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Hayward vs Mueller Industries: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| null | |||
| Better Bet Than HAYW Stock: Pay Less Than Hayward To Get More From SO, SCCO | |||
| Better Bet Than HAYW Stock: Pay Less Than Hayward To Get More From BAH, CACI | |||
| Hayward (HAYW) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Hayward (HAYW) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Hayward (HAYW) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Small Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | October 30th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to HAYW. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -10.3% | -10.3% | -14.1% |
| 10312025 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -10.2% | -10.2% | -17.5% |
| 10312025 | PLPC | Preformed Line Products | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -3.4% | -3.4% | -4.8% |
| 10172025 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -7.1% | -7.1% | -10.5% |
| 10102025 | CARR | Carrier Global | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.2% | -4.2% | -4.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -10.3% | -10.3% | -14.1% |
| 10312025 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -10.2% | -10.2% | -17.5% |
| 10312025 | PLPC | Preformed Line Products | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -3.4% | -3.4% | -4.8% |
| 10172025 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -7.1% | -7.1% | -10.5% |
| 10102025 | CARR | Carrier Global | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.2% | -4.2% | -4.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Hayward
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 5.59 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.6 |
| Rev LTM | 1,091 |
| Op Inc LTM | 220 |
| FCF LTM | 136 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 160 |
| CFO LTM | 160 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 179 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 12.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 12.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 20.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 16.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 14.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 12.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.6 |
| P/S | 3.3 |
| P/EBIT | 16.2 |
| P/E | 23.0 |
| P/CFO | 26.6 |
| Total Yield | 4.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 8.2% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -3.9% |
| 3M Rtn | -7.2% |
| 6M Rtn | -4.9% |
| 12M Rtn | -4.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 71.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -4.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -13.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -16.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -14.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -0.8% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2025 | 12.0% | 5.6% | |
| 7/30/2025 | 3.1% | 4.1% | 8.8% |
| 2/27/2025 | 2.6% | 1.8% | -2.6% |
| 10/29/2024 | 5.9% | 9.4% | 10.3% |
| 7/30/2024 | 9.4% | 2.7% | 9.9% |
| 2/29/2024 | 13.0% | 6.6% | 17.0% |
| 10/31/2023 | -8.7% | -7.1% | 1.6% |
| 8/2/2023 | 3.3% | 11.3% | 8.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 8 | 9 |
| # Negative | 6 | 7 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 5.9% | 4.9% | 8.2% |
| Median Negative | -5.1% | -5.4% | -7.5% |
| Max Positive | 13.0% | 11.3% | 17.0% |
| Max Negative | -18.2% | -14.6% | -17.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10292025 | 10-Q 9/27/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7302025 | 10-Q 6/28/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/29/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10292024 | 10-Q 9/28/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7302024 | 10-Q 6/29/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10312023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 7/1/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 4/1/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 10/1/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7292022 | 10-Q 7/2/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4292022 | 10-Q 4/2/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3092022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | MSD Partners, L.P. | 6052025 | Sell | 16.38 | 73,459 | 1,203,258 | 20,179,095 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |