Hayward (HAYW)
Market Price (12/22/2025): $15.93 | Market Cap: $3.5 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Electrical Components & Equipment
Hayward (HAYW)
Market Price (12/22/2025): $15.93Market Cap: $3.5 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Electrical Components & Equipment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 21% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -25%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -0.2% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.0% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% | Key risksHAYW key risks include [1] potential substantial liability from an ongoing securities fraud lawsuit alleging "channel-stuffing" and [2] an estimated $85 million annual cost from a potential 145% tariff on its Chinese imports. | |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.5% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Water Infrastructure, Electrification of Everything, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Water Treatment & Delivery, Show more. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 21% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.5% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Water Infrastructure, Electrification of Everything, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Water Treatment & Delivery, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -25%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -0.2% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.0% |
| Key risksHAYW key risks include [1] potential substantial liability from an ongoing securities fraud lawsuit alleging "channel-stuffing" and [2] an estimated $85 million annual cost from a potential 145% tariff on its Chinese imports. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
HAYW Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining why Hayward (HAYW) stock moved by -0.6% for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:
1. Market Overvaluation Concerns.
Despite some positive news and strong analyst ratings, Hayward Holdings (HAYW) stock has been noted to trade at a higher earnings multiple (25.4 times earnings) compared to the industry average (19.9 times earnings). This suggests that the stock may be optimistically priced, potentially limiting further upside or leading to slight corrections if market expectations are not fully met.
2. Industry Headwinds from Declining New Pool Construction.
The company faces challenges from a decline in new pool construction, which decreased by 4% (representing a significant 14% year-over-year decline to 62,000 units). This, combined with a stagnating installed base with a modest compound annual growth rate of 0.2% from 2022 to 2024, hinders Hayward's growth potential in a market experiencing subdued demand for new builds.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HAYW Return | � | � | -64% | 45% | 12% | 5% | � |
| Peers Return | � | � | -57% | 26% | 64% | -11% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HAYW Win Rate | � | 78% | 17% | 58% | 58% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | 60% | 22% | 53% | 64% | 47% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HAYW Max Drawdown | � | � | -69% | 0% | -13% | -26% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | -61% | -12% | -16% | -29% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PNR, POOL, SWIM.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | HAYW | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -70.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 238.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to POWL, ETN, EMR, VRT, AME
In The Past
Hayward's stock fell -70.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/16/2021. A -70.5% loss requires a 238.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Hayward Earnings Notes | |||
| How Low Can Hayward Stock Really Go? | Return | ||
| Hayward vs Apollo Asset Management: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Hayward vs Mueller Industries: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| How Does Hayward Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | Peer Comparison | ||
| Better Bet Than HAYW Stock: Pay Less Than Hayward To Get More From SO, SCCO | |||
| Better Bet Than HAYW Stock: Pay Less Than Hayward To Get More From BAH, CACI | |||
| Hayward (HAYW) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Hayward (HAYW) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Hayward (HAYW) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Small Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | October 30th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to HAYW. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.0% | 18.0% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.6% | 2.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 3.6% | 3.6% | -0.4% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.0% | 18.0% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.6% | 2.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 3.6% | 3.6% | -0.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Hayward
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 59.93 |
| Mkt Cap | 6.0 |
| Rev LTM | 2,614 |
| Op Inc LTM | 410 |
| FCF LTM | 293 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 399 |
| CFO LTM | 338 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 444 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -5.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 16.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 15.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 14.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 12.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 6.0 |
| P/S | 2.4 |
| P/EBIT | 17.8 |
| P/E | 23.0 |
| P/CFO | 17.4 |
| Total Yield | 4.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.2% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -11.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 6.9% |
| 12M Rtn | -3.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 86.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -13.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -9.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -22.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 13.6% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2025 | 12.0% | 5.6% | 8.0% |
| 7/30/2025 | 3.1% | 4.1% | 8.8% |
| 2/27/2025 | 2.6% | 1.8% | -2.6% |
| 10/29/2024 | 5.9% | 9.4% | 10.3% |
| 7/30/2024 | 9.4% | 2.7% | 9.9% |
| 2/29/2024 | 13.0% | 6.6% | 17.0% |
| 10/31/2023 | -8.7% | -7.1% | 1.6% |
| 8/2/2023 | 3.3% | 11.3% | 8.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 8 | 10 |
| # Negative | 6 | 7 | 5 |
| Median Positive | 5.9% | 4.9% | 8.1% |
| Median Negative | -5.1% | -5.4% | -7.5% |
| Max Positive | 13.0% | 11.3% | 17.0% |
| Max Negative | -18.2% | -14.6% | -17.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10292025 | 10-Q 9/27/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7302025 | 10-Q 6/28/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/29/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10292024 | 10-Q 9/28/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7302024 | 10-Q 6/29/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10312023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 7/1/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 4/1/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 10/1/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7292022 | 10-Q 7/2/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4292022 | 10-Q 4/2/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3092022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |