Hayward (HAYW)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $16.385 | Market Cap: $3.6 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Electrical Components & Equipment
Hayward (HAYW)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $16.385Market Cap: $3.6 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Electrical Components & Equipment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 21% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.9%, Dist 3Y High is -4.9% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.0% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -10% | |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.8% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Water Infrastructure, Electrification of Everything, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Water Treatment & Delivery, Show more. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 21% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.8% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Water Infrastructure, Electrification of Everything, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Water Treatment & Delivery, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.9%, Dist 3Y High is -4.9% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -10% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.0% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
HAYW Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Hayward (HAYW) stock experienced movements between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, with a notable jump of approximately 10% on October 29, 2025, following the release of its third-quarter 2025 financial results. The stock's closing price on December 3, 2025, was $16.37.
Here are the key points for why the stock moved:
1. Hayward Holdings Reported Strong Q3 2025 Financial Results.
On October 29, 2025, Hayward Holdings announced its third-quarter fiscal year 2025 financial results, which exceeded analyst expectations for both revenue and earnings per share. The company reported net sales of $244.3 million, a 7.4% year-over-year increase, beating analyst estimates of $231.5 million. Adjusted EPS was $0.14, surpassing analyst estimates of $0.12, representing a 15.8% beat.
2. Raised Full-Year 2025 Guidance.
Following the strong Q3 performance, Hayward Holdings raised its financial guidance for the full 2025 fiscal year. The company lifted its revenue guidance to $1.10 billion at the midpoint from $1.09 billion, a 1.6% increase. The EBITDA guidance for the full year was also raised to $294.5 million at the midpoint, exceeding analyst estimates of $287.1 million.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HAYW Return | - | - | -64% | 45% | 12% | 7% | -38% |
| Peers Return | 1% | 17% | 6% | 54% | 55% | 14% | 241% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HAYW Win Rate | - | 78% | 17% | 58% | 58% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 38% | 48% | 33% | 46% | 48% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HAYW Max Drawdown | - | - | -69% | 0% | -13% | -26% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -39% | -7% | -21% | -6% | -6% | -20% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: POWL, AIGO, SONC, ETN, EMR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | HAYW | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -70.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 238.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to POWL, AIGO, SONC, ETN, EMR
In The Past
Hayward's stock fell -70.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/16/2021. A -70.5% loss requires a 238.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Hayward Earnings Notes | |||
| How Low Can Hayward Stock Really Go? | Return | ||
| Hayward vs Apollo Asset Management: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Hayward vs Mueller Industries: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| How Does Hayward Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | Peer Comparison | ||
| Better Bet Than HAYW Stock: Pay Less Than Hayward To Get More From SO, SCCO | |||
| Better Bet Than HAYW Stock: Pay Less Than Hayward To Get More From BAH, CACI | |||
| Hayward (HAYW) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Hayward (HAYW) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Hayward (HAYW) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Small Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | October 30th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to HAYW. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Hayward
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 229.19 |
| Mkt Cap | 39.9 |
| Rev LTM | 9,439 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,785 |
| FCF LTM | 1,466 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,116 |
| CFO LTM | 1,696 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,321 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 17.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 19.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 17.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 16.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 13.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 39.9 |
| P/S | 3.6 |
| P/EBIT | 18.7 |
| P/E | 26.0 |
| P/CFO | 24.4 |
| Total Yield | 4.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.6% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -8.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 4.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 13.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 2.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 93.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -8.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -3.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -1.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -11.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 23.3% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10292025 | 10-Q 9/27/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7302025 | 10-Q 6/28/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/29/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10292024 | 10-Q 9/28/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7302024 | 10-Q 6/29/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10312023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 7/1/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 4/1/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 10/1/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7292022 | 10-Q 7/2/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4292022 | 10-Q 4/2/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3092022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |