Kura Sushi USA (KRUS)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $51.35 | Market Cap: $621.3 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants
Kura Sushi USA (KRUS)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $51.35Market Cap: $621.3 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Restaurants
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -68%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -93% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -4.8 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1.7% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Restaurant Automation. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 29x |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.4% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.4% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Restaurant Automation. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -68%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -93% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -4.8 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1.7% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 29x |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.4% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.4% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
KRUS Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points highlighting why Kura Sushi USA (KRUS) stock moved by approximately -39.2% in the period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Weak Full-Year Revenue Guidance. The company's full-year revenue guidance for fiscal year 2026, provided during the November 6, 2025, fiscal Q4 2025 earnings call, came in below analysts' forecasts, a significant concern for investors despite an earnings beat.
2. Concerns over Comparable Restaurant Sales and Traffic. Kura Sushi reported a 1.3% decrease in comparable restaurant sales for the full fiscal year 2025. While the fiscal fourth quarter saw a slight increase, the overall trend and broader industry challenges, including slowing customer traffic for the sit-down dining segment, contributed to investor apprehension about sustained growth from existing restaurants.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| KRUS Return | -23% | 315% | -41% | 59% | 19% | -45% | 97% |
| Peers Return | 18% | 25% | 3% | -2% | 8% | -7% | 51% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| KRUS Win Rate | 42% | 75% | 42% | 75% | 50% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 20% | 23% | 20% | 15% | 18% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| KRUS Max Drawdown | -79% | -8% | -60% | -16% | -36% | -54% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -26% | -2% | -12% | -9% | -10% | -16% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GST, BH, RICK, BRCB, CADV.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | KRUS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -60.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 151.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 70 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -81.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 445.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 341 days | 148 days |
Compare to GST, BH, RICK, BRCB, CADV
In The Past
Kura Sushi USA's stock fell -60.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/31/2021. A -60.3% loss requires a 151.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to KRUS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Kura Sushi USA
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 38.39 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.4 |
| Rev LTM | 283 |
| Op Inc LTM | 24 |
| FCF LTM | 34 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 28 |
| CFO LTM | 51 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 56 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 10.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 6.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 18.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 11.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.4 |
| P/S | 1.2 |
| P/EBIT | 9.3 |
| P/E | 20.2 |
| P/CFO | 6.5 |
| Total Yield | 0.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.6% |
| D/E | 0.8 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -29.4% |
| 6M Rtn | -33.1% |
| 12M Rtn | -49.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | -25.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -35.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -47.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -65.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -93.4% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 8312025 | 11062025 | 10-K 8/31/2025 |
| 5312025 | 7082025 | 10-Q 5/31/2025 |
| 2282025 | 4082025 | 10-Q 2/28/2025 |
| 11302024 | 1072025 | 10-Q 11/30/2024 |
| 8312024 | 11082024 | 10-K 8/31/2024 |
| 5312024 | 7092024 | 10-Q 5/31/2024 |
| 2292024 | 4042024 | 10-Q 2/29/2024 |
| 11302023 | 1042024 | 10-Q 11/30/2023 |
| 8312023 | 11092023 | 10-K 8/31/2023 |
| 5312023 | 7062023 | 10-Q 5/31/2023 |
| 2282023 | 4042023 | 10-Q 2/28/2023 |
| 11302022 | 1052023 | 10-Q 11/30/2022 |
| 8312022 | 11102022 | 10-K 8/31/2022 |
| 5312022 | 7072022 | 10-Q 5/31/2022 |
| 2282022 | 4072022 | 10-Q 2/28/2022 |
| 11302021 | 1062022 | 10-Q 11/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |