KeyCorp (KEY)
Market Price (4/13/2026): $21.46 | Market Cap: $23.5 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Regional Banks
KeyCorp (KEY)
Market Price (4/13/2026): $21.46Market Cap: $23.5 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Regional Banks
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.8%, FCF Yield is 8.9% Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -17% Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 66% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%, CFO LTM is 2.2 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.1 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 28% Uninsured deposits are lowUninsured Deposits Ratio %Fraction of deposits that exceed the insurance deposit thresholds. For example, the FDIC protects deposits up to $250K. A high uninsured deposits ratio indicates large accounts and greater potential exposure to bank run risk. is 17% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and AI in Financial Services. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, Digital Payments, Show more. | Moderate capital ratioTier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 7.3% | Key risksKEY key risks include [1] potential for increased loan losses due to its specific portfolio exposure to the energy and healthcare sectors. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.8%, FCF Yield is 8.9% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -17% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 66% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%, CFO LTM is 2.2 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.1 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 28% |
| Uninsured deposits are lowUninsured Deposits Ratio %Fraction of deposits that exceed the insurance deposit thresholds. For example, the FDIC protects deposits up to $250K. A high uninsured deposits ratio indicates large accounts and greater potential exposure to bank run risk. is 17% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and AI in Financial Services. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, Digital Payments, Show more. |
| Moderate capital ratioTier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 7.3% |
| Key risksKEY key risks include [1] potential for increased loan losses due to its specific portfolio exposure to the energy and healthcare sectors. |
Qualitative Assessment
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KeyCorp (KEY) stock has gained about 5% since 12/31/2025 because of the following key factors:
1. KeyCorp reported a strong fourth-quarter 2025 earnings beat and provided optimistic 2026 guidance. The company announced diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.41 for Q4 2025, exceeding analysts' expectations of $0.38 by 7.89%. Additionally, revenue reached $2.01 billion, surpassing Wall Street estimates by 1.8%. For the full year 2025, KeyCorp achieved record revenue of $7.5 billion, marking a 16% increase year-over-year. Management projects further growth in 2026, with an anticipated revenue increase of approximately 7% and net interest income growth between 8-10%.
2. The company demonstrated expanding net interest margin (NIM) and robust net interest income (NII) growth. KeyCorp's net interest margin increased by 7 basis points to 2.82% in the fourth quarter of 2025. This contributed to a 3% sequential increase in net interest income, which was also up 15% from the previous year. Management is targeting continued NIM expansion, expecting it to surpass 3.0% by the end of 2026.
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1. KeyCorp reported a strong fourth-quarter 2025 earnings beat and provided optimistic 2026 guidance. The company announced diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.41 for Q4 2025, exceeding analysts' expectations of $0.38 by 7.89%. Additionally, revenue reached $2.01 billion, surpassing Wall Street estimates by 1.8%. For the full year 2025, KeyCorp achieved record revenue of $7.5 billion, marking a 16% increase year-over-year. Management projects further growth in 2026, with an anticipated revenue increase of approximately 7% and net interest income growth between 8-10%.
2. The company demonstrated expanding net interest margin (NIM) and robust net interest income (NII) growth. KeyCorp's net interest margin increased by 7 basis points to 2.82% in the fourth quarter of 2025. This contributed to a 3% sequential increase in net interest income, which was also up 15% from the previous year. Management is targeting continued NIM expansion, expecting it to surpass 3.0% by the end of 2026.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 5.0% change in KEY stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 43.4% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 20.44 | 21.46 | 5.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 6,142 | 7,285 | 18.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 17.5% | 25.1% | 43.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 20.9 | 12.9 | -38.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,101 | 1,096 | 0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 5.0% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| KEY | 5.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.4% | 47.2% |
| Sector (XLF) | -7.3% | 80.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 17.2% change in KEY stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 605.0% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 18.30 | 21.46 | 17.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,942 | 7,285 | 47.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.6% | 25.1% | 605.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 114.4 | 12.9 | -88.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,100 | 1,096 | 0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 17.2% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| KEY | 17.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | -2.9% | 46.8% |
| Sector (XLF) | -5.4% | 75.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 40.4% change in KEY stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 65.8% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 15.29 | 21.46 | 40.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,393 | 7,285 | 65.8% |
| P/S Multiple | 3.4 | 3.2 | -6.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 987 | 1,096 | -9.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 40.4% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| KEY | 40.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.3% | 70.6% |
| Sector (XLF) | 3.0% | 80.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 102.2% change in KEY stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 151.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 10.61 | 21.46 | 102.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 7,026 | 7,285 | 3.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 27.3% | 25.1% | -8.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 5.1 | 12.9 | 151.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 925 | 1,096 | -15.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 102.2% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| KEY | 102.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 63.3% | 53.2% |
| Sector (XLF) | 64.9% | 71.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| KEY Return | 46% | -22% | -12% | 25% | 26% | 6% | 69% |
| Peers Return | 36% | -18% | 1% | 26% | 15% | 5% | 70% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -0% | 82% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| KEY Win Rate | 75% | 50% | 33% | 58% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 68% | 47% | 47% | 60% | 55% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| KEY Max Drawdown | -1% | -31% | -48% | -8% | -22% | -8% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -3% | -26% | -32% | -6% | -21% | -8% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: PNC, USB, TFC, FITB, HBAN. See KEY Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/10/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | KEY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -66.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 202.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -59.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 148.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 341 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -37.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 862 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -88.4% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 765.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1,480 days |
Compare to PNC, USB, TFC, FITB, HBAN
In The Past
KeyCorp's stock fell -66.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/14/2022. A -66.9% loss requires a 202.5% gain to breakeven.
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About KeyCorp (KEY)
KeyCorp operates as the holding company for KeyBank National Association that provides various retail and commercial banking products and services in the United States. It operates in two segments, Consumer Bank and Commercial Bank. The company offers various deposits, investment products and services; and personal finance and financial wellness, student loan refinancing, mortgage and home equity, lending, credit card, treasury, business advisory, wealth management, asset management, investment, cash management, portfolio management, and trust and related services to individuals and small and medium-sized businesses. It also provides a suite of banking and capital market products, such as syndicated finance, debt and equity capital market products, commercial payments, equipment finance, commercial mortgage banking, derivatives, foreign exchange, financial advisory, and public finance, as well as commercial mortgage loans comprising consumer, energy, healthcare, industrial, public sector, real estate, and technology loans for middle market clients. In addition, the company offers community development financing, securities underwriting, brokerage, and investment banking services. As of December 31, 2021, it operated through a network of approximately 999 branches and 1,317 ATMs in 15 states, as well as additional offices, online and mobile banking capabilities, and a telephone banking call center. KeyCorp was founded in 1849 and is headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe KeyCorp (KEY):
- It's like a regional JPMorgan Chase, providing a broad spectrum of consumer and commercial banking, wealth management, and capital markets services across 15 states.
- Think of it as a Wells Fargo operating primarily in the Midwest and parts of the East Coast, offering extensive banking solutions for individuals and businesses.
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- Deposits: Core banking products including checking, savings, and money market accounts for individuals and businesses.
- Lending Services: Offers a diverse portfolio of loans such as consumer mortgages, home equity, student loans, credit cards, and commercial loans including syndicated finance, equipment finance, and commercial mortgages.
- Wealth & Investment Management: Provides comprehensive services including wealth management, asset management, portfolio management, investment products, and trust services.
- Capital Markets & Advisory Services: Engages in debt and equity capital market products, securities underwriting, brokerage, investment banking, financial advisory, public finance, derivatives, and foreign exchange.
- Business & Treasury Solutions: Delivers cash management, commercial payment solutions, and treasury services for various business sizes.
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KeyCorp (KEY) primarily serves a diverse base of customers rather than a few major identifiable companies. Based on its operations, its customers can be categorized as follows:
- Individuals: KeyCorp offers a wide array of personal banking products and services including deposits, personal finance, financial wellness, student loan refinancing, mortgages, home equity, lending, credit cards, wealth management, asset management, and trust services.
- Small and Medium-sized Businesses: The company provides banking, treasury, business advisory, investment, cash management, and portfolio management services to this segment.
- Middle Market Clients: KeyCorp serves larger businesses with a suite of banking and capital market products, such as syndicated finance, debt and equity capital market products, commercial payments, equipment finance, commercial mortgage banking, derivatives, foreign exchange, financial advisory, and public finance. This segment includes clients in sectors like consumer, energy, healthcare, industrial, public sector, real estate, and technology.
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Christopher M. Gorman is the Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and President of KeyCorp, a position he assumed on May 1, 2020. He has been a director since 2019. Gorman has over 30 years of experience in financial services and has held various leadership roles at KeyCorp, including Chief Operating Officer (2019-2020) and President of Banking (2017-2019). He was responsible for leading Key's integration of First Niagara Financial Group, the largest acquisition in Key's history. Earlier in his career, he led KeyBanc Capital Markets and held various leadership roles at McDonald Investments, a registered broker-dealer acquired by KeyCorp in 1998. Clark H. I. Khayat is KeyCorp's Chief Financial Officer (CFO) since March 2023 and has been an executive officer since 2018. He previously served as Chief Strategy Officer for KeyCorp (2018–2023) and as Head of Enterprise Commercial Payments (2014–2016). Khayat's background spans business, law, consulting, and investment banking. He was co-founder and managing director of Occom Ridge Partners, LLC, a strategic advisory firm. Earlier in his career, he was Senior Controller of Personal Lines for the Progressive Corporation and held senior leadership roles in strategy and finance at National City Corporation (now PNC), where he led Corporate Finance and Strategy and Corporate Planning. He was also an Engagement Manager at McKinsey & Company. Khayat has served as a board member for BuyerQuest, a SaaS company, and as a Board Observer at AvidXchange and InstaMed, also SaaS companies. He also served on the board of the Payment Company of The Clearinghouse. Victor B. Alexander is the Head of Consumer Banking at KeyCorp. In this role, he oversees retail, consumer lending and deposits, business banking, small business, home lending, and wealth management. Alexander joined KeyCorp in 2000 and has held various leadership positions. He served as Corporate Treasurer for KeyCorp from 2017 through 2018. Previously, he led Key's Corporate Strategy team, overseeing corporate strategy, mergers and acquisitions, and strategic investments. Under his leadership, the Corporate Strategy team was central to Key's 2016 acquisition of First Niagara Financial Group. Andrew J. Paine III serves as the Head of Institutional Banking at KeyCorp. Amy G. Brady is the Chief Information Officer (CIO) for KeyCorp, leading the company's Technology, Operations and Services organization. She oversees shared services for technology, operations, data, servicing, cyber and physical security, and procurement. Brady joined KeyCorp in 2012. Prior to KeyCorp, she spent 25 years at Bank of America, including serving as Chief Information Officer, Enterprise Technology and Operations. She began her banking career in branch banking at Bank of America in 1987. While she resigned from her CIO role on March 2, 2026, due to personal health considerations, she will remain employed as a non-executive employee through May 31, 2026, to assist with the transition of her duties.AI Analysis | Feedback
KeyCorp (KEY) faces several significant risks to its business operations:Key Risks to KeyCorp (KEY)
- Credit Risk and Asset Quality Deterioration: KeyCorp has significant exposure to various credit segments, particularly Commercial Real Estate (CRE) and consumer lending categories. A rise in nonperforming assets or a shift towards lower-quality loans could lead to increased loan loss provisions, negatively affecting profitability and valuation. Ongoing credit quality trends, especially in CRE and construction loans, are closely monitored and can materially impact future earnings and capital levels.
- Interest Rate Risk and Net Interest Income Pressure: The company's profitability has been pressured by rising funding costs and its balance sheet positioning in a higher interest rate environment. This can lead to a decline in net interest income (NII) and a low net interest margin (NIM), indicating weaker loan book profitability and potentially requiring increased loan originations to compensate.
- Liquidity Risk: KeyCorp highlights liquidity risk, which encompasses challenges related to funding availability, regulatory constraints, deposit withdrawals, access to market funding, and refinancing risk. Maintaining sufficient liquidity is crucial for the bank's stability and operations.
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There are several clear emerging threats for KeyCorp:
- Fintech Disruption: The rise of digital-only banks (neo-banks, challenger banks) and specialized fintech companies offering services like deposits, lending, and payments. These entities often provide more user-friendly digital experiences, lower fees, and sometimes higher interest rates, directly competing with KeyCorp's Consumer Bank by attracting customers away from traditional branch-based banking models.
- Big Tech Entry into Financial Services: Large technology companies (e.g., Apple, Google, Amazon) are increasingly expanding their offerings into financial services, leveraging their vast customer bases, data analytics, and robust digital platforms. Their entry into areas like payments, lending, and potentially broader banking services could siphon off customers and transaction volume that KeyCorp currently serves.
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For KeyCorp (symbol: KEY), the addressable markets for its main products and services in the United States are sizable, reflecting the broad scope of its banking and financial offerings.
Consumer Bank Segment (U.S. Region)
- Retail Banking: The U.S. retail banking market was valued at approximately USD 870 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to about USD 1.11 trillion by 2031, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.17%. Another estimate places the U.S. retail banking market at USD 0.87 trillion in 2025, with a forecast to reach USD 1.08 trillion by 2030 (CAGR of 4.22%).
- Mortgage and Home Equity: The U.S. home mortgage market size was valued at approximately USD 180.91 billion in 2023 and is projected to grow to around USD 501.67 billion by 2032, exhibiting a CAGR of roughly 12.00% between 2024 and 2032. Furthermore, total single-family mortgage origination volume is expected to increase to USD 2.0 trillion in 2025 and further to USD 2.2 trillion in 2026.
- Credit Card: The U.S. credit card market size was around USD 190 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 388.4 billion by 2032, at a CAGR of 9.5% during 2025–2032. Another report estimates the U.S. credit card payments market size at USD 187.45 billion in 2024, projected to reach approximately USD 441.56 billion by 2034. As of the first quarter of 2024, Americans held a total balance of USD 1.12 trillion across their credit cards.
- Student Loan Refinancing: The total student loan debt in the United States reached approximately USD 1.833 trillion as of February 2026. Federal student loans comprise about USD 1.693 trillion of this amount, while private student loan debt was approximately USD 133.4 billion as of Q1 2024.
Commercial Bank Segment (U.S. Region)
- Commercial Banking: The U.S. commercial banking market size is estimated at USD 732.5 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 915.45 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 4.56%. Another source indicates the market size to be USD 765.53 billion in 2026, with a projection to reach USD 954.48 billion by 2031.
- Wealth Management: The U.S. private banking market, a component of wealth management, is valued at USD 59.54 billion in 2025 and is expected to grow to USD 94.89 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 9.77%. Additionally, robo-advisors in the U.S. managed over USD 1 trillion in assets as of 2025, with forecasts predicting this figure could approach USD 2 trillion in the near future.
- Investment Banking Services: The U.S. investment banking market is estimated at USD 54.74 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 66.15 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 3.86%. Other estimates for the U.S. investment banking market size range from approximately USD 129.13 billion in 2025, with a projection to reach USD 301.52 billion by 2035. In terms of activity, the total value of M&A transactions in the U.S. is projected to reach approximately USD 1 trillion in 2025.
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KeyCorp (KEY) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several strategic initiatives:
- Net Interest Income (NII) and Net Interest Margin (NIM) Expansion: KeyCorp anticipates continued growth in Net Interest Income and expansion of its Net Interest Margin. This is expected to be fueled by ongoing balance sheet optimization, which includes managing deposit costs effectively and remixing its loan portfolio towards higher-yielding commercial assets. Management projects the net interest margin to reach 3.00-3.05% by the fourth quarter of 2026 and above 3.25% by the fourth quarter of 2027.
- Growth in Fee-Based Businesses: The company is focused on expanding its fee-based segments, including investment banking, wealth management, and commercial payments. KeyCorp expects mid-to-high single-digit growth in these areas, supported by a healthy deal pipeline, anticipated improvements in middle-market M&A activity, and successful scaling through recent banker hires and platform expansions. Specifically, investment banking fees are projected to grow by about 5%, wealth fees in the high single digits, and commercial payment fees in the low double digits in 2026.
- Strategic Investments in Talent and Technology: KeyCorp has been making significant investments in its front-line banker staff and technology, including digital capabilities and artificial intelligence. These investments are aimed at fueling organic growth, enhancing client experience, and improving operating efficiency. The increased productivity from these new hires is expected to contribute meaningfully to revenue growth, typically after a 12 to 18-month ramp-up period.
- Commercial Loan Growth and Portfolio Optimization: The company plans for average loan growth, with a particular emphasis on commercial loans, which are projected to increase by approximately 5% in 2026. This strategy involves prioritizing commercial and industrial (C&I) lending and continuing to shift the loan portfolio away from lower-yielding consumer loans towards higher-yielding commercial assets.
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Share Repurchases
- KeyCorp's Board of Directors authorized a new share repurchase program of up to $1.0 billion in March 2025, which began in the second half of 2025.
- The company repurchased $200 million worth of stock in the fourth quarter of 2025.
- As of December 31, 2025, approximately $0.8 billion remained available under the authorized program, with management intending to repurchase around $1.2 billion in 2026.
Share Issuance
- In 2024, KeyCorp issued common shares totaling approximately $2.8 billion through a strategic minority investment by The Bank of Nova Scotia (Scotiabank).
- This investment was completed in two tranches: an initial purchase of approximately $0.8 billion for a 4.9% stake on August 30, 2024, and a second phase amounting to $2.0 billion completed on December 27, 2024, increasing Scotiabank's total ownership to 14.9%.
Inbound Investments
- A significant inbound investment was the approximately $2.8 billion strategic minority investment made by Scotiabank in KeyCorp during 2024.
- This investment aimed to strengthen KeyCorp's capital position and explore new opportunities in areas such as investment banking, wealth management, and payments.
Outbound Investments
- KeyCorp focuses on acquiring niche, entrepreneurial businesses to enhance its fee-based income.
- KeyBank's most recent acquisition was GradFin in May 2022, a lending platform for refinancing employee education loans.
- Other acquisitions in the 2021-2022 period include XUP Payments (November 2021) and AQN Strategies (March 2021), though the dollar amounts were undisclosed.
Capital Expenditures
- KeyCorp invested $45.0 million in capital expenditures in Q4 2025.
- The company has made continued investments in technology and talent, including an additional $100 million in technology with a focus on customer-facing digital capabilities and AI in Q4 2025, and increased its frontline banker staff by nearly 10%.
- In 2023, KeyCorp's investments primarily targeted people and technology, concentrating on growth opportunities in Wealth Management, Payments, and Investment Banking.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| KeyCorp Stock Rockets 13% With 7-Day Winning Streak | 12/12/2025 | |
| Can KeyCorp Stock Hold Up When Markets Turn? | 10/17/2025 | |
| KeyCorp (KEY) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| KeyCorp (KEY) Debt Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| KeyCorp (KEY) Net Income Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| KeyCorp (KEY) Tax Expense Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| KeyCorp (KEY) EBITDA Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| KeyCorp (KEY) Revenue Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| KeyCorp (KEY) Operating Income Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| KEY Dip Buy Analysis | 07/10/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| S&P 500 Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | 02/06/2026 | |
| Mid Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | 02/04/2026 | |
| KeyCorp Stock Surges 13%, With A 7-Day Winning Spree | 12/12/2025 | |
| KEY Stock Up 17% after 12-Day Win Streak | 07/09/2025 | |
| KEY Stock Up 16% after 11-Day Win Streak | 07/08/2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to KEY.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03312026 | HBAN | Huntington Bancshares | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03312026 | NP | Neptune Insurance | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | JKHY | Jack Henry & Associates | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 03202026 | MKTX | MarketAxess | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.2% | -5.2% | -5.7% |
| 03202026 | RYAN | Ryan Specialty | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -2.7% | -2.7% | -8.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 49.45 |
| Mkt Cap | 47.8 |
| Rev LTM | 14,555 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 4,094 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 4,457 |
| CFO LTM | 4,449 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 4,730 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 29.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 31.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 28.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 31.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 47.8 |
| P/S | 3.2 |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | 12.2 |
| P/CFO | 10.8 |
| Total Yield | 11.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 10.9% |
| D/E | 0.7 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 11.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 1.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 21.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 50.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 93.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 7.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 1.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 15.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 16.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 26.6% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial Bank | 3,434 | 3,297 | 3,463 | 3,640 | 3,249 |
| Consumer Bank | 3,170 | 3,157 | 3,404 | 3,426 | 3,402 |
| Other | -1,985 | -41 | 405 | 226 | 64 |
| Total | 4,619 | 6,413 | 7,272 | 7,292 | 6,715 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial Bank | 1,091 | 885 | 1,144 | 1,642 | 651 |
| Consumer Bank | 251 | 202 | 365 | 876 | 653 |
| Other | -1,503 | -120 | 408 | 107 | 39 |
| Total | -161 | 967 | 1,917 | 2,625 | 1,343 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial Bank | 77,782 | 85,542 | 80,068 | 70,051 | 74,225 |
| Other | 67,420 | 61,492 | 61,404 | 66,231 | 46,678 |
| Consumer Bank | 41,613 | 44,593 | 44,414 | 42,637 | 41,152 |
| Total | 186,815 | 191,627 | 185,886 | 178,919 | 162,055 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $21.46 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 23.5 | |
| First Trading Date | 11/05/1987 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -6.6% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $20.74 | $19.03 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | 3.5% | 12.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 27.5% | 25.4% |
| Downside Capture | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| Upside Capture | 113.29 | 117.43 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 42.0% | 56.8% |
KEY Betas & Captures as of 3/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.69 | 1.02 | 0.96 | 0.95 | 1.14 | 1.31 |
| Up Beta | -0.42 | 0.89 | 1.30 | 1.05 | 1.05 | 1.35 |
| Down Beta | 0.57 | 0.65 | 0.57 | 1.10 | 1.37 | 1.27 |
| Up Capture | 95% | 124% | 119% | 101% | 120% | 229% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 20 | 30 | 66 | 133 | 380 |
| Down Capture | 72% | 113% | 102% | 79% | 100% | 106% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 22 | 33 | 59 | 116 | 357 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with KEY | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KEY | 70.0% | 27.6% | 1.90 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 16.9% | 17.3% | 0.74 | 79.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 31.2% | 17.3% | 1.47 | 66.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 60.1% | 27.8% | 1.69 | -3.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 29.8% | 16.6% | 1.58 | 12.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 21.3% | 15.2% | 1.07 | 51.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -4.3% | 43.7% | 0.02 | 29.8% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with KEY | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KEY | 6.1% | 38.1% | 0.26 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 9.7% | 18.7% | 0.40 | 75.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.1% | 17.0% | 0.50 | 55.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 22.1% | 17.8% | 1.02 | -1.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.8% | 18.8% | 0.52 | 18.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.7% | 18.8% | 0.10 | 46.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.3% | 56.5% | 0.30 | 15.9% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with KEY | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KEY | 11.5% | 39.8% | 0.41 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 12.7% | 22.2% | 0.53 | 83.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.8% | 17.9% | 0.66 | 62.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.2% | 15.9% | 0.74 | -8.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.6% | 17.6% | 0.41 | 27.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.1% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 52.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.6% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 13.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 1/20/2026 | -0.4% | 0.6% | 3.6% |
| 10/16/2025 | -5.4% | -1.5% | -0.6% |
| 7/22/2025 | 2.4% | 0.9% | -0.7% |
| 4/17/2025 | 1.4% | 5.7% | 18.2% |
| 1/21/2025 | -3.6% | -3.5% | -1.5% |
| 10/17/2024 | -2.5% | -3.5% | 8.1% |
| 7/18/2024 | -4.0% | -2.6% | -0.1% |
| 4/18/2024 | -0.3% | 3.5% | 6.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 6 | 10 | 15 |
| # Negative | 18 | 14 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 1.9% | 4.5% | 9.3% |
| Median Negative | -3.0% | -3.0% | -1.5% |
| Max Positive | 4.1% | 8.9% | 18.6% |
| Max Negative | -5.5% | -14.7% | -18.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/23/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/21/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/04/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/20/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Return of Capital | |||||||
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/16/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Net charge-offs | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| 2025 Front line bankers growth | 10.0% | ||||||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paine, Andrew J Iii | Head of Institutional Bank | Direct | Sell | 9112025 | 19.29 | 44,953 | 867,143 | 4,726,899 | Form |
| 2 | Brady, Amy G | Chief Information Officer | Direct | Sell | 8122025 | 17.61 | 50,000 | 880,500 | 572,730 | Form |
| 3 | Evans, Trina M | Director, Corporate Center | Direct | Sell | 7282025 | 18.67 | 17,000 | 317,390 | 1,544,364 | Form |
| 4 | Gorman, Christopher M | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 7252025 | 18.86 | 112,149 | 2,115,130 | 11,691,220 | Form |
| 5 | Brady, Amy G | Chief Information Officer | Direct | Sell | 6132025 | 16.09 | 19,000 | 305,710 | 1,327,795 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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