Coffee (JVA)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $3.65 | Market Cap: $20.8 MilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Packaged Foods & Meats
Coffee (JVA)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $3.65Market Cap: $20.8 MilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Packaged Foods & Meats
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.3% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -19% | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.8%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.3% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, Vegan & Alternative Foods, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.3% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, Vegan & Alternative Foods, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -19% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.8%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.3% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
JVA Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. The company reported a net loss of $1.19 million for the fiscal quarter ending July 31, 2025, largely due to a $2.2 million negative impact from derivative positions, despite a 27% increase in net sales.
2. Several market analyses in early December 2025 indicated a bearish overall moving average trend and strong sell signals for JVA based on technical indicators.
3.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| JVA Return | -17% | 14% | -53% | -55% | 276% | 7% | -19% |
| Peers Return | 4% | 8% | -5% | -13% | -16% | -34% | -49% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| JVA Win Rate | 50% | 33% | 33% | 33% | 67% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 48% | 46% | 40% | 54% | 50% | 27% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| JVA Max Drawdown | -60% | 0% | -59% | -67% | -2% | -17% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -26% | -10% | -31% | -25% | -26% | -47% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TR, JJSF, THS, HAIN, BRBF. See JVA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | JVA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -89.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 827.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 498 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -59.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 147.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 301 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -51.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 107.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1982 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -89.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 883.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 744 days | 1480 days |
Compare to TR, JJSF, THS, HAIN, BRBF
In The Past
Coffee's stock fell -89.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/24/2021. A -89.2% loss requires a 827.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to JVA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.9% | -1.9% | -1.9% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -5.3% | -5.3% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.5% | 3.5% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.1% | 2.1% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.9% | -1.9% | -1.9% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -5.3% | -5.3% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.5% | 3.5% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.1% | 2.1% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Coffee
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 23.94 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.2 |
| Rev LTM | 1,131 |
| Op Inc LTM | 76 |
| FCF LTM | 33 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 19 |
| CFO LTM | 75 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 67 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -0.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 4.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 7.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.2 |
| P/S | 0.3 |
| P/EBIT | 10.5 |
| P/E | 26.3 |
| P/CFO | 5.8 |
| Total Yield | 3.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.8% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -9.3% |
| 6M Rtn | -13.3% |
| 12M Rtn | -30.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | -39.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -15.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -28.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -43.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -112.4% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 7312025 | 9122025 | 10-Q 7/31/2025 |
| 4302025 | 6132025 | 10-Q 4/30/2025 |
| 1312025 | 3212025 | 10-Q 1/31/2025 |
| 10312024 | 1312025 | 10-K 10/31/2024 |
| 7312024 | 9132024 | 10-Q 7/31/2024 |
| 4302024 | 6172024 | 10-Q 4/30/2024 |
| 1312024 | 3182024 | 10-Q 1/31/2024 |
| 10312023 | 2092024 | 10-K 10/31/2023 |
| 7312023 | 9142023 | 10-Q 7/31/2023 |
| 4302023 | 6152023 | 10-Q 4/30/2023 |
| 1312023 | 4282023 | 10-Q 1/31/2023 |
| 10312022 | 3292023 | 10-K 10/31/2022 |
| 7312022 | 9142022 | 10-Q 7/31/2022 |
| 4302022 | 6142022 | 10-Q 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3172022 | 10-Q 1/31/2022 |
| 10312021 | 1312022 | 10-K 10/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |