Farmer Bros (FARM)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $1.465 | Market Cap: $31.6 MilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Packaged Foods & Meats
Farmer Bros (FARM)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $1.465Market Cap: $31.6 MilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Packaged Foods & Meats
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Ethical Sourcing, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -95%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -139% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 138% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.6%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -4.1% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -41% | ||
| Key risksFARM key risks include [1] indications of structural business decline and persistent customer attrition amidst intense competition. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Ethical Sourcing, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -95%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -139% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 138% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.6%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -4.1% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -41% |
| Key risksFARM key risks include [1] indications of structural business decline and persistent customer attrition amidst intense competition. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
FARM Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The stock of Farmer Bros. (FARM) experienced a significant decline between approximately August 31, 2025, and December 18, 2025, with several key factors contributing to a reported -27% movement.
1. Disappointing FY2026 Outlook.
Farmer Bros. management provided a disappointing outlook for fiscal year 2026 on September 15, 2025, indicating that the company would no longer be able to offset unit sales declines and rising costs of goods sold (COGS) with price increases. This led to expectations of substantial losses for FY2026.
2. Downgraded Rating and Price Target.
Following the bleak FY2026 outlook, an analyst downgraded Farmer Bros. shares from "Buy" to "Hold" and reduced the price target from $3.50 to $2.00, citing a worsened bargaining position for a potential sale due to the poor outlook.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| FARM Return | -69% | 60% | -38% | -34% | -41% | -17% | -90% |
| Peers Return | -2% | 7% | 7% | 3% | 17% | 2% | 37% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| FARM Win Rate | 42% | 58% | 33% | 50% | 42% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 47% | 53% | 50% | 60% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| FARM Max Drawdown | -77% | -3% | -40% | -61% | -44% | -24% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -52% | -11% | -16% | -16% | -7% | -13% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SYY, USFD, PFGC, SJM, MKC. See FARM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | FARM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -86.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 615.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -77.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 334.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -69.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 229.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -48.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 95.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2,030 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to SYY, FLO, BGS, BRBF, MEHA
In The Past
Farmer Bros's stock fell -86.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/2/2021. A -86.0% loss requires a 615.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to FARM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.8% | 5.8% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.9% | -5.9% | -7.5% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.4% | 15.4% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.7% | 6.7% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.7% | -3.7% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.8% | 5.8% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.9% | -5.9% | -7.5% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.4% | 15.4% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.7% | 6.7% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.7% | -3.7% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Farmer Bros
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 76.43 |
| Mkt Cap | 16.1 |
| Rev LTM | 23,944 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,143 |
| FCF LTM | 645 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 766 |
| CFO LTM | 990 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,087 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 3.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 3.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 3.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 16.1 |
| P/S | 0.5 |
| P/EBIT | 16.3 |
| P/E | 22.4 |
| P/CFO | 14.1 |
| Total Yield | 2.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.1% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 0.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -5.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 3.1% |
| 12M Rtn | -4.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | -3.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 0.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -7.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -9.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -16.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -76.3% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 9/11/2025 | -21.5% | -20.2% | -25.3% |
| 5/8/2025 | -14.2% | -18.4% | -21.1% |
| 2/6/2025 | 21.1% | 16.7% | 31.7% |
| 9/12/2024 | -12.3% | -17.6% | -26.8% |
| 5/9/2024 | -3.0% | -9.4% | -11.8% |
| 2/8/2024 | 17.6% | 9.6% | 20.8% |
| 9/12/2023 | 18.7% | 51.6% | 30.8% |
| 5/10/2023 | -15.8% | -23.8% | 24.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 6 | 6 | 7 |
| # Negative | 12 | 12 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 15.8% | 11.4% | 24.9% |
| Median Negative | -10.7% | -13.7% | -18.8% |
| Max Positive | 21.1% | 51.6% | 36.3% |
| Max Negative | -21.5% | -23.8% | -26.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 9112025 | 10-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2062025 | 10-Q 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 9122024 | 10-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2082024 | 10-Q 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 9122023 | 10-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2082023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 9022022 | 10-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2042022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |