Tearsheet

Farmer Bros (FARM)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $1.465 | Market Cap: $31.6 Mil
Sector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Packaged Foods & Meats

Farmer Bros (FARM)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $1.465
Market Cap: $31.6 Mil
Sector: Consumer Staples
Industry: Packaged Foods & Meats

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Ethical Sourcing, Show more.
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -95%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -139%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 138%
1   Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.6%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -4.1%
2   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -41%
3   Key risks
FARM key risks include [1] indications of structural business decline and persistent customer attrition amidst intense competition.
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Ethical Sourcing, Show more.
1 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -95%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -139%
2 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 138%
3 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.6%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -4.1%
4 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -41%
5 Key risks
FARM key risks include [1] indications of structural business decline and persistent customer attrition amidst intense competition.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

FARM Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The stock of Farmer Bros. (FARM) experienced a significant decline between approximately August 31, 2025, and December 18, 2025, with several key factors contributing to a reported -27% movement. 1. Disappointing FY2026 Outlook.

Farmer Bros. management provided a disappointing outlook for fiscal year 2026 on September 15, 2025, indicating that the company would no longer be able to offset unit sales declines and rising costs of goods sold (COGS) with price increases. This led to expectations of substantial losses for FY2026.

2. Downgraded Rating and Price Target.

Following the bleak FY2026 outlook, an analyst downgraded Farmer Bros. shares from "Buy" to "Hold" and reduced the price target from $3.50 to $2.00, citing a worsened bargaining position for a potential sale due to the poor outlook.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
FARM Return-69%60%-38%-34%-41%-17%-90%
Peers Return-2%7%7%3%17%2%37%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
FARM Win Rate42%58%33%50%42%33% 
Peers Win Rate50%47%53%50%60%50% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
FARM Max Drawdown-77%-3%-40%-61%-44%-24% 
Peers Max Drawdown-52%-11%-16%-16%-7%-13% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SYY, USFD, PFGC, SJM, MKC. See FARM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventFARMS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-86.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven615.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-77.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven334.0%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-69.7%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven229.8%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-48.8%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven95.2%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven2,030 days1,480 days

Compare to SYY, FLO, BGS, BRBF, MEHA


In The Past

Farmer Bros's stock fell -86.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/2/2021. A -86.0% loss requires a 615.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Farmer Bros (FARM)

Better Bets than Farmer Bros (FARM)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to FARM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.8%5.8%0.0%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.9%-5.9%-7.5%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
15.4%15.4%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.7%6.7%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.7%-3.7%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.8%5.8%0.0%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.9%-5.9%-7.5%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
15.4%15.4%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.7%6.7%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.7%-3.7%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Farmer Bros

Peers to compare with:

Financials

FARMSYYUSFDPFGCSJMMKCMedian
NameFarmer B.Sysco US Foods Performa.JM Smuck.McCormick 
Mkt Price1.4675.7577.1194.82100.3968.6576.43
Mkt Cap0.036.317.414.711.618.416.1
Rev LTM33982,03539,11564,9598,7736,78823,944
Op Inc LTM13,0811,2028261,3321,0841,143
FCF LTM01,599978523636655645
FCF 3Y Avg-111,924851511795736766
CFO LTM92,5431,3591,011969879990
CFO 3Y Avg12,7651,1819151,2689941,087

Growth & Margins

FARMSYYUSFDPFGCSJMMKCMedian
NameFarmer B.Sysco US Foods Performa.JM Smuck.McCormick 
Rev Chg LTM-1.6%2.9%4.8%10.6%-0.7%1.6%2.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg6.2%4.8%5.6%5.6%2.5%2.1%5.2%
Rev Chg Q-4.1%3.2%4.8%10.8%2.6%2.7%3.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-1.0%0.8%1.2%2.6%0.7%0.7%0.7%
Op Mgn LTM0.3%3.8%3.1%1.3%15.2%16.0%3.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-3.7%3.9%2.9%1.4%16.6%15.6%3.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.3%-0.0%-0.0%-0.0%-0.3%-0.0%-0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM2.5%3.1%3.5%1.6%11.0%12.9%3.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg0.4%3.5%3.2%1.5%14.8%14.9%3.3%
FCF/Rev LTM0.1%1.9%2.5%0.8%7.2%9.7%2.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-3.3%2.4%2.3%0.8%9.3%11.0%2.4%

Valuation

FARMSYYUSFDPFGCSJMMKCMedian
NameFarmer B.Sysco US Foods Performa.JM Smuck.McCormick 
Mkt Cap0.036.317.414.711.618.416.1
P/S0.10.50.40.21.32.60.5
P/EBIT-5.613.116.519.5-16.316.3
P/E-2.721.731.049.7-9.723.122.4
P/CFO4.315.512.716.012.020.414.1
Total Yield-36.7%7.2%3.2%2.0%-6.3%7.0%2.6%
Dividend Yield0.0%2.6%0.0%0.0%4.0%2.6%1.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-24.3%5.2%6.4%4.1%-3.7%4.1%
D/E1.50.40.30.5-0.20.4
Net D/E1.40.30.30.5-0.20.3

Returns

FARMSYYUSFDPFGCSJMMKCMedian
NameFarmer B.Sysco US Foods Performa.JM Smuck.McCormick 
1M Rtn-3.9%0.8%8.2%0.8%-5.8%6.3%0.8%
3M Rtn-21.9%-7.5%-2.1%-12.8%-3.6%3.5%-5.6%
6M Rtn-0.7%3.8%2.4%11.6%6.7%-5.0%3.1%
12M Rtn-22.3%-0.3%12.8%8.5%-8.8%-12.4%-4.5%
3Y Rtn-69.7%4.4%117.5%56.6%-28.1%-12.0%-3.8%
1M Excs Rtn-4.7%0.1%7.5%0.1%-6.5%5.6%0.1%
3M Excs Rtn-22.9%-8.3%-3.0%-13.6%-6.3%3.0%-7.3%
6M Excs Rtn-13.1%-8.6%-10.0%-0.8%-5.7%-17.4%-9.3%
12M Excs Rtn-34.2%-13.7%-0.1%-4.1%-19.1%-23.7%-16.4%
3Y Excs Rtn-139.2%-69.6%50.5%-11.5%-96.8%-83.0%-76.3%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Single Segment341340315398501
Total341340315398501


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity152,249
Short Interest: % Change Since 1115202565.4%
Average Daily Volume64,469
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.36
Basic Shares Quantity21,593,843
Short % of Basic Shares0.7%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
9/11/2025-21.5%-20.2%-25.3%
5/8/2025-14.2%-18.4%-21.1%
2/6/202521.1%16.7%31.7%
9/12/2024-12.3%-17.6%-26.8%
5/9/2024-3.0%-9.4%-11.8%
2/8/202417.6%9.6%20.8%
9/12/202318.7%51.6%30.8%
5/10/2023-15.8%-23.8%24.9%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive667
# Negative121211
Median Positive15.8%11.4%24.9%
Median Negative-10.7%-13.7%-18.8%
Max Positive21.1%51.6%36.3%
Max Negative-21.5%-23.8%-26.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025911202510-K 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024206202510-Q 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024912202410-K 6/30/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023208202410-Q 12/31/2023
93020231109202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023912202310-K 6/30/2023
3312023510202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022208202310-Q 12/31/2022
93020221104202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022902202210-K 6/30/2022
3312022506202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021204202210-Q 12/31/2021

Industry Resources

Packaged Foods & Meats Resources
USDA Data