Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is -1.8%
 
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -29%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -0.1%
 
2 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 5.2%
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 31%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable & Green Buildings, Smart Buildings & Proptech, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Green Building Certification, Show more.
  
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30%
2 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 5.2%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 31%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable & Green Buildings, Smart Buildings & Proptech, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Green Building Certification, Show more.
5 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is -1.8%
6 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -29%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -0.1%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

JOE Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining the 22.8% stock movement for The St. Joe Company (JOE) from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025: 1. Exceptional Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results

The St. Joe Company reported a substantial 63% increase in revenue and a 130% rise in net income for the third quarter of 2025 compared to the same period in the prior year. The company's earnings per share (EPS) of $0.67 also surpassed analyst expectations, signaling robust financial health.

2. Significant Growth in Residential Real Estate

The residential real estate segment was a major driver, with revenue surging by 94% to $36.8 million in Q3 2025. This growth was fueled by an increase in the average homesite base price to approximately $150,000 from $86,000 and an improvement in the gross margin to 53% from 39%. Total real estate revenue saw a remarkable 199% increase.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
JOE Return115%23%-25%57%-25%38%225%
Peers Return31%22%-16%48%-2%4%103%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
JOE Win Rate75%75%50%50%17%60% 
Peers Win Rate37%58%35%47%40%36% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
JOE Max Drawdown-20%-3%-39%0%-27%-9% 
Peers Max Drawdown-21%-5%-29%-9%-29%-19% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FOR, AXR, OZ, HHH, JOE.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventJOES&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-48.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven94.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven304 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-31.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven45.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven160 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-34.2%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven52.0%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven344 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-76.1%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven318.5%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven5242 days1480 days

Compare to FOR, AXR, OZ, HHH, JOE


In The Past

St. Joe's stock fell -48.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/1/2022. A -48.7% loss requires a 94.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About St. Joe (JOE)

Better Bets than St. Joe (JOE)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to JOE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
MPW_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025MPWMedical Properties TrustSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
8.5%8.5%-5.8%
JOE_9302023_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%09302023JOESt. JoeQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
7.2%9.7%-15.0%
JOE_4302022_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%04302022JOESt. JoeQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-31.7%-22.0%-40.9%
JOE_3312021_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%03312021JOESt. JoeQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
0.6%39.0%-4.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
MPW_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025MPWMedical Properties TrustSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
8.5%8.5%-5.8%
JOE_9302023_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%09302023JOESt. JoeQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
7.2%9.7%-15.0%
JOE_4302022_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%04302022JOESt. JoeQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-31.7%-22.0%-40.9%
JOE_3312021_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%03312021JOESt. JoeQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
0.6%39.0%-4.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for St. Joe

Peers to compare with:

Financials

JOEFORAXROZHHHMedian
NameSt. Joe Forestar Amrep Belpoint.Howard H. 
Mkt Price61.8027.0822.03-87.6744.44
Mkt Cap3.61.40.1-4.92.5
Rev LTM4891,5434861,771489
Op Inc LTM13220213-17541132
FCF LTM148-3369-175369
FCF 3Y Avg22-4512-1116712
CFO LTM176-3359-175389
CFO 3Y Avg125-4312-1117012

Growth & Margins

JOEFORAXROZHHHMedian
NameSt. Joe Forestar Amrep Belpoint.Howard H. 
Rev Chg LTM26.9%2.3%-19.5%235.0%80.5%26.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg19.4%0.9%-4.7%94.2%14.5%14.5%
Rev Chg Q62.7%22.6%-6.5%421.4%-8.0%22.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM14.5%4.9%-2.5%39.7%-1.3%4.9%
Op Mgn LTM27.1%13.1%27.4%-304.8%30.6%27.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg24.2%14.3%18.6%-475.8%26.2%18.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM3.5%-0.6%3.0%68.3%-0.9%3.0%
CFO/Rev LTM36.0%-21.7%18.7%-304.4%30.4%18.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg29.9%-1.6%22.6%-393.3%7.4%7.4%
FCF/Rev LTM30.3%-21.8%17.6%-304.4%30.3%17.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg2.6%-1.7%21.9%-393.3%7.1%2.6%

Valuation

JOEFORAXROZHHHMedian
NameSt. Joe Forestar Amrep Belpoint.Howard H. 
Mkt Cap3.61.40.1-4.92.5
P/S5.90.72.3-2.12.2
P/EBIT16.65.08.4-7.57.9
P/E27.46.38.4-16.412.4
P/CFO16.2-3.012.3-6.99.6
Total Yield4.8%16.0%12.0%-6.1%9.0%
Dividend Yield1.1%0.0%0.0%-0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg0.9%-4.6%11.7%--0.9%
D/E0.20.90.0-1.40.5
Net D/E0.20.7-0.4-1.00.4

Returns

JOEFORAXROZHHHMedian
NameSt. Joe Forestar Amrep Belpoint.Howard H. 
1M Rtn5.5%5.7%1.9%-11.8%5.6%
3M Rtn26.3%-1.3%7.5%-14.6%11.0%
6M Rtn38.4%38.3%9.8%-29.8%34.1%
12M Rtn24.0%-8.9%-40.5%-1.7%-3.6%
3Y Rtn71.0%80.3%98.3%--80.3%
1M Excs Rtn5.5%5.7%2.0%-11.9%5.6%
3M Excs Rtn18.1%-9.2%0.6%-7.5%4.0%
6M Excs Rtn23.6%23.6%-4.9%-15.1%19.3%
12M Excs Rtn8.8%-22.8%-52.4%--12.5%-17.7%
3Y Excs Rtn-0.1%14.3%21.6%--14.3%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Commercial512471375333254
Hospitality46642025714790
Other312309381385426
Residential234231195173139
Total1,5241,4311,2081,037909


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity910,323
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-3.1%
Average Daily Volume232,702
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.91
Basic Shares Quantity57,841,815
Short % of Basic Shares1.6%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251029202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025723202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025423202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024226202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241023202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024724202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024424202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023221202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231025202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023726202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023426202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022222202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221026202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022727202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022427202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021223202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0BERKOWITZ BRUCE R9092025Sell51.08104,1005,317,428833,861,794Form
1BERKOWITZ BRUCE R9022025Sell51.0025,3001,290,300837,864,924Form
2BERKOWITZ BRUCE R8262025Sell50.4681,0004,087,260830,270,051Form
3BERKOWITZ BRUCE R8192025Sell50.3126,0001,308,060833,336,047Form
4BERKOWITZ BRUCE R8142025Sell50.57139,1007,034,287849,653,069Form