Tejon Ranch (TRC)
Market Price (10/7/2026): $16.15 | Market Cap: $436.1 MilSector: Industrials | Industry: Industrial Conglomerates
Tejon Ranch (TRC)
Market Price (10/7/2026): $16.15Market Cap: $436.1 MilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Industrial Conglomerates
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 21% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce Logistics & Data Centers, Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Water Infrastructure. Themes include E-commerce Logistics REITs, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -43%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -82% Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 11.56 | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -0.5 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.9% Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 35x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 73x Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.4% Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -53% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.4% Key risksTRC key risks include [1] significant regulatory and legal challenges stalling its large-scale California development projects and [2] financial strain from these capital-intensive, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 21% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce Logistics & Data Centers, Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Water Infrastructure. Themes include E-commerce Logistics REITs, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -43%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -82% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 11.56 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -0.5 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.9% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 35x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 73x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.4% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -53% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.4% |
| Key risksTRC key risks include [1] significant regulatory and legal challenges stalling its large-scale California development projects and [2] financial strain from these capital-intensive, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Tejon Ranch (TRC) stock has lost about 15% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Persistent valuation concerns despite positive quarterly results.
Tejon Ranch (TRC) stock lost approximately 12.78% during fiscal Q3 2026 (July 1, 2026, to September 30, 2026), moving from an estimated $18.49 to $16.13 per share. This decline occurred even after the company reported improved fiscal Q2 2026 earnings on August 6, 2026, where it swung to a net profit of $2.6 million, or $0.10 per share, up from a loss of $1.7 million in the prior year. Despite a 72% increase in Q2 revenue to $14.259 million, driven by a land sale, the stock's modest 1.4% gain post-earnings indicated investor hesitation. Analysts noted the stock's demanding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, which stood at 74.7x as of August 7, 2026, and expressed a generally negative outlook for the following 30 days with a "Moderate Sell" signal.
2. Delays and risks associated with long-term land development projects.
A significant portion of Tejon Ranch's value lies in its extensive land holdings and master-planned communities, such as the Centennial project. However, these large-scale developments are subject to lengthy environmental reviews and potential litigation, which can extend timelines and dampen investor patience. Management acknowledged that while these projects are crucial for future growth, investor patience with their long timetable was limited, contributing to the stock's underperformance over the preceding three to six months as of August 2026.
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Tejon Ranch (TRC) stock has lost about 15% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Persistent valuation concerns despite positive quarterly results.
Tejon Ranch (TRC) stock lost approximately 12.78% during fiscal Q3 2026 (July 1, 2026, to September 30, 2026), moving from an estimated $18.49 to $16.13 per share. This decline occurred even after the company reported improved fiscal Q2 2026 earnings on August 6, 2026, where it swung to a net profit of $2.6 million, or $0.10 per share, up from a loss of $1.7 million in the prior year. Despite a 72% increase in Q2 revenue to $14.259 million, driven by a land sale, the stock's modest 1.4% gain post-earnings indicated investor hesitation. Analysts noted the stock's demanding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, which stood at 74.7x as of August 7, 2026, and expressed a generally negative outlook for the following 30 days with a "Moderate Sell" signal.
2. Delays and risks associated with long-term land development projects.
A significant portion of Tejon Ranch's value lies in its extensive land holdings and master-planned communities, such as the Centennial project. However, these large-scale developments are subject to lengthy environmental reviews and potential litigation, which can extend timelines and dampen investor patience. Management acknowledged that while these projects are crucial for future growth, investor patience with their long timetable was limited, contributing to the stock's underperformance over the preceding three to six months as of August 2026.
3. Underperformance in farming and ranching operations.
During the fiscal Q2 2026 earnings call, management indicated that the company's farming and ranching operations had not yielded adequate returns. These traditional segments are part of Tejon Ranch's diversified revenue streams, and their reported underperformance likely contributed to investor concerns regarding overall profitability and the efficient monetization of the company's assets.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -12.7% change in TRC stock from 6/30/2026 to 10/6/2026 was primarily driven by a -75.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302026 | 10062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 18.70 | 16.33 | -12.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 51 | 57 | 11.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.3% | 10.6% | 219.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 298.1 | 73.0 | -75.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 27 | 27 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -12.7% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2026 to 10/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TRC | -12.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.3% | 16.9% |
| Sector (XLI) | -7.4% | 18.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -13.3% change in TRC stock from 3/31/2026 to 10/6/2026 was primarily driven by a -98.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 10062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 18.84 | 16.33 | -13.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 50 | 57 | 14.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 0.2% | 10.6% | 6923.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 6,760.0 | 73.0 | -98.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 27 | 27 | -0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -13.3% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 10/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TRC | -13.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 20.1% | 7.1% |
| Sector (XLI) | 6.4% | 3.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 2.2% change in TRC stock from 9/30/2025 to 10/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 25.4% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 10062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 15.98 | 16.33 | 2.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 45 | 57 | 25.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 9.5 | 7.8 | -18.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 27 | 27 | -0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 2.2% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 10/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TRC | 2.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 17.9% | 15.6% |
| Sector (XLI) | 12.2% | 16.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 0.7% change in TRC stock from 9/30/2023 to 10/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 139.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302023 | 10062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 16.22 | 16.33 | 0.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 67 | 57 | -15.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 21.1% | 10.6% | -49.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 30.5 | 73.0 | 139.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 27 | 27 | -1.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.7% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2023 to 10/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TRC | 0.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 88.5% | 27.2% |
| Sector (XLI) | 76.0% | 33.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TRC Return | 32% | -1% | -9% | -8% | -1% | 3% | 12% |
| Peers Return | 59% | -27% | 36% | -12% | 9% | 9% | 64% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 14% | 107% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TRC Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 42% | 42% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 70% | 43% | 52% | 43% | 53% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TRC Max Drawdown | -17% | -27% | -25% | -24% | -19% | -23% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -18% | -44% | -26% | -27% | -25% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: JOE, FOR, CTO, LAND, PLD.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 10/6/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TRC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -12.8% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.7% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 62 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -15.9% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.9% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1059 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -23.8% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 52 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -23.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 305 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -22.3% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.6% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1048 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -16.9% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.4% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 286 days | 6 days |
In The Past
Tejon Ranch's stock fell -4.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 5.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | TRC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -23.8% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 52 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -23.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 305 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -22.3% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.6% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1048 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -30.8% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.5% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 106 days | 62 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -31.6% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.2% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 636 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -21.6% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.6% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 235 days | 125 days |
In The Past
Tejon Ranch's stock fell -4.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 5.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Tejon Ranch (TRC)
Tejon Ranch Co. (TRC) is a diversified real estate development and agribusiness company that leverages its extensive land holdings in California across five distinct segments. The company's core operations revolve around transforming its land into various revenue-generating assets, including commercial, industrial, and residential properties, alongside significant agricultural and resource management activities.
In its real estate development divisions, Tejon Ranch is active in both commercial/industrial and resort/residential projects. The Commercial/Industrial segment focuses on planning, developing, and leasing properties for logistics, retail (like fast-food and service stations), and critical infrastructure such as communication sites and land for an electric power plant. Meanwhile, the Resort/Residential segment is dedicated to the long-term entitlement, planning, and pre-construction engineering of land for future residential communities and resorts. The company also generates substantial income through its Mineral Resources segment, collecting royalties from oil and gas production, rock and aggregate extraction, and a cement operation.
Beyond real estate, Tejon Ranch operates a robust agribusiness. Its Farming segment cultivates thousands of acres of permanent crops, including almonds, pistachios, and wine grapes, and also manages or leases land for other agricultural products like alfalfa and vegetables. The Ranch Operations segment provides game management services, guided hunts, and leases land for grazing and filming, catering to a diverse set of customers ranging from agricultural product buyers to recreational hunters, livestock ranchers, and film production companies.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Tejon Ranch (TRC):
Think of it as a mini-Berkshire Hathaway, but instead of buying diverse companies, it runs multiple businesses—from real estate development to farming, mineral extraction, and ranching—all from its massive land holdings in California.
It's like a version of Howard Hughes Corporation (known for developing master-planned communities) that also operates a large agricultural business and earns royalties from oil, gas, and other natural resources on its vast land.
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- Commercial/Industrial Real Estate Development: Develops, leases, and sells land and buildings for commercial and industrial purposes.
- Residential/Resort Real Estate Development: Engages in the planning and entitlement of land for residential and resort communities.
- Mineral Resources Royalties: Collects royalties from oil and gas, rock and aggregate, and a cement operation.
- Agricultural Products: Produces and sells permanent crops such as wine grapes, almonds, and pistachios.
- Agricultural Land Leasing: Leases land for farming various crops like vegetables and almonds.
- Ranch and Land Management Services: Provides game management, guided hunts, grazing leases, and filming location services.
- Water Asset Management: Manages and develops water assets and infrastructure projects.
- Communications Infrastructure Leasing: Leases land for microwave, radio, cellular, and fiber optic communication sites.
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Major Customers of Tejon Ranch (TRC)
Tejon Ranch (TRC) primarily sells to other companies. Based on the provided description, its major customers include:
- National Cement Company of California, Inc.: This company leases the cement operation from Tejon Ranch, generating royalties for TRC as part of its Mineral Resources segment. (National Cement Company of California, Inc. is a subsidiary of Vicat S.A., which is publicly traded on Euronext Paris under symbol VCT, but National Cement itself is not publicly traded with its own distinct symbol.)
- Real Estate Developers and Commercial Tenants: While specific names are not provided, these comprise various companies that purchase land for development or lease commercial spaces. Examples from the description include companies operating auto service stations, convenience stores, fast-food operations, motels, and antique shops.
- Telecommunications and Energy Companies: These are companies that lease land for critical infrastructure, such as microwave repeater locations, radio and cellular transmitter sites, fiber optic cable routes, and electric power plants.
- Agricultural Processors and Distributors: This group includes companies in the food and beverage industry that purchase Tejon Ranch's farmed crops (e.g., wineries, nut processing companies, food distributors) and companies that lease land for farming vegetables and almonds.
- Oil, Gas, and Rock & Aggregate Companies: These are companies involved in natural resource extraction that pay royalties for oil and gas, as well as rock and aggregate, from Tejon Ranch's properties.
- Ranching and Film Production Companies: Companies that lease land for grazing livestock or for filming locations.
While TRC primarily serves businesses, its Ranch Operations segment also serves individuals who participate in guided hunts.
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Matthew Walker
President & Chief Executive Officer
Mr. Walker was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer of Tejon Ranch Co., effective March 31, 2025, having initially joined as Chief Operating Officer in March 2025. Prior to Tejon Ranch, he spent 24 years at Lowe Enterprises, a Los Angeles-based real estate firm, where he served as Executive Vice President and Shareholder, overseeing their hospitality and resort community platform. His extensive real estate experience encompasses resort and residential development, residential sales and marketing, master-planned community entitlement and development, and capital development and joint venture formation. Mr. Walker began his career in architectural firms and holds a Bachelor of Architecture from Cornell University and a Master of Business Administration from the UCLA Anderson School of Management.
Robert D. Velasquez
Senior Vice President, Finance, Chief Accounting Officer and Chief Financial Officer
Mr. Velasquez serves as Senior Vice President, Finance, Chief Accounting Officer and Chief Financial Officer for Tejon Ranch Co., having joined the company in 2014. He was appointed interim Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer effective July 15, 2025. With over 25 years of experience, he has worked across the real estate, hospitality, and construction industries. Before joining Tejon Ranch, Mr. Velasquez was an Executive Director at Ernst & Young, where he was responsible for audit and advisory services for publicly traded companies. He is a Certified Public Accountant and earned a Bachelor of Science degree in business with an emphasis in accounting from California State University, Los Angeles.
Hugh F. McMahon IV
Executive Vice President, Real Estate
Mr. McMahon is the Executive Vice President of Real Estate for Tejon Ranch Co., a role in which he is responsible for the entitlement and development of the Grapevine and Mountain Village master-planned communities. He commenced his career with the Company in 2001. Previously, Mr. McMahon served as Director of Finance for Castle & Cooke's mainland operations. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from California State University, Fresno, and a Master of Business Administration from California State University, Bakersfield. Additionally, he is a graduate of Stanford University's Financial Management Program and Harvard University's Real Estate Management Program.
Michael R.W. Houston
Senior Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary
Mr. Houston is the Senior Vice President, General Counsel, and Corporate Secretary for Tejon Ranch Co. He previously held these same positions at the Company for nearly five years starting in 2016. Mr. Houston is licensed to practice law in both California and Colorado.
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- Dependence on Real Estate Market Conditions and Regulatory/Environmental Challenges: Tejon Ranch's substantial Commercial/Industrial and Resort/Residential Real Estate Development segments are highly susceptible to fluctuations in real estate market demand, pricing, and interest rates. Furthermore, undertaking large-scale land entitlement, planning, and development projects in California exposes the company to complex, often lengthy, regulatory and permitting processes, including significant environmental reviews and concerns over water availability, which can lead to substantial delays and increased costs.
- Exposure to Agricultural and Commodity Price Volatility, and Environmental Factors: The Farming segment's profitability is directly impacted by the fluctuating market prices of permanent crops such as wine grapes, almonds, and pistachios. This segment, along with the Mineral Resources segment, is also vulnerable to environmental factors like drought, extreme weather conditions, pests, and diseases, which can affect crop yields and resource extraction. Additionally, the Mineral Resources segment faces risks associated with the volatility of commodity prices for oil, gas, rock, and aggregates.
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The following clear emerging threats have been identified for Tejon Ranch (TRC):
- Intensified Climate-Induced Water Scarcity: For its Farming segment (wine grapes, almonds, pistachios) and Mineral Resources segment (management of water assets), the increasing severity and duration of droughts in California, driven by climate change, represent a clear emerging threat. This could lead to severe water allocation restrictions, making large-scale, water-intensive agriculture economically unfeasible and significantly devaluing the company's water assets and agricultural land.
- Disruptive Sustainable Building Materials: For its Mineral Resources segment, which derives royalties from rock, aggregate, and a cement operation, the rapid development and widespread adoption of highly sustainable, cost-effective alternative building materials (e.g., advanced mass timber, mycelium-based composites, or low-carbon concrete innovations) could significantly reduce the long-term demand for traditional raw materials like rock, aggregate, and cement. This mirrors historical disruptions where new materials or technologies rendered older ones less competitive.
- Decentralized Logistics and Manufacturing: For its Commercial/Industrial Real Estate Development segment, which focuses on developing land for logistics, warehousing, and industrial uses, the emergence of highly decentralized logistics models (e.g., widespread drone delivery networks and hyper-local micro-fulfillment centers) and advanced manufacturing technologies (e.g., on-demand 3D printing reducing the need for traditional large factories) could reduce the long-term demand for vast industrial parks and large-scale distribution centers. This could impact the value and lease potential of Tejon Ranch’s commercial and industrial land holdings.
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Here are the addressable market sizes for Tejon Ranch's main products and services:
- Commercial/Industrial Real Estate Development: The California commercial building market was valued at approximately USD 151.04 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 154.86 billion in 2025. This market is expected to grow to USD 198.85 billion by 2035. California's industrial real estate market, a significant component of commercial real estate, has a total industrial inventory of nearly 780 million square feet. Direct spending on California commercial real estate was $22.6 billion in 2023, with industrial assets accounting for $5 billion and warehouses for $8.8 billion.
- Resort/Residential Real Estate Development: The median sale price for homes in California was $813,000 in September 2024. In February 2026, the median home price in California was $821,300. The California Association of REALTORS® projects the statewide median price to increase to approximately $905,000 in 2026.
- Mineral Resources:
- Oil and Gas royalties: null
- Rock and Aggregate royalties: null
- Water assets: California's water market is valued at $1.1 billion. Approximately 1.5 million acre-feet of water is traded annually in California. Additionally, water-related infrastructure spending in California is approximately $37 billion annually.
- Farming:
- Wine grapes: The U.S. market can support 3.2 million tons of California wine grapes annually. California crushed 2.6 million tons of wine grapes in 2025, with the total crop value for California wine grapes estimated at $2.414 billion in 2025.
- Almonds: California's 2025 almond harvest is projected at 3.00 billion meat-pounds. In 2022, almonds alone represented $4.6 to $4.7 billion of California's agricultural exports.
- Pistachios: California's pistachio production is projected to exceed 1.4 billion pounds by 2026. The global pistachio market is estimated to be worth $5.6 billion and is projected to grow to over $7 billion by 2030, with California supplying more than 60% of the world's pistachios.
- Alfalfa and forage mix: null
- Vegetables: California's fruit and vegetable sales exceeded US$20 billion in 2024.
- Ranch Operations:
- Game management and guided hunts: The U.S. wildlife tourism market generated a revenue of USD 13,836.0 million in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 25,831.1 million by 2033. In 2022, U.S. residents spent $145 billion on fishing and hunting.
- Grazing leases: null
- Filming: The Movie & Video Production industry in California is estimated at $26.7 billion in 2026. In 2022-2023, on-location film and TV productions in California directly spent $1.14 billion in the state. The California film and TV industry contributed $28.9 billion to the state's GDP in 2022.
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Expected Revenue Growth Drivers for Tejon Ranch (TRC) Over the Next 2-3 Years
- Continued Development and Leasing at Tejon Ranch Commerce Center (TRCC): Tejon Ranch's Commercial/Industrial Real Estate Development segment is expected to drive revenue growth through further development and increased leasing at its Tejon Ranch Commerce Center (TRCC). The industrial portfolio at TRCC is already 100% leased, with the commercial portfolio at 95% occupancy. The company has significant entitled development capacity remaining, with 11 million square feet available for future projects. Additionally, the development of a multifamily apartment complex with up to 495 units is underway, transforming TRCC into a mixed-use community.
- Progress in Master Planned Communities: The Resort/Residential Real Estate Development segment is poised for substantial future revenue as Tejon Ranch advances its master-planned communities. The company holds entitlements for over 35,000 homes, which have the potential to generate significantly higher earnings compared to current levels. The initial multifamily community, Terra Vista at Tejon, is already over halfway leased, indicating progress in their long-term residential development strategy.
- Improved Performance in Farming Operations: Tejon Ranch's Farming segment demonstrated strong improvement in the recent past, with revenues increasing by over 50% year-over-year in Q3 2025. This growth, coupled with stable expenses, led to a $2 million improvement in the segment's bottom line. Sustained strong performance in the farming of permanent crops like wine grapes, almonds, and pistachios will contribute to overall revenue growth.
- Increased Traffic and Retail Activity from Hard Rock Tejon Casino: The upcoming opening of the Hard Rock Tejon Casino is anticipated to significantly boost traffic to the surrounding retail assets within the Tejon Ranch Commerce Center. This increased visitor volume is expected to positively impact revenue generated from existing leases with auto service stations, fast-food operations, and other commercial tenants in the area.
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Share Issuance
- Tejon Ranch's number of outstanding shares increased from 26.35 million in 2021 to 26.89 million in 2025, indicating a slight issuance of shares over this period.
Outbound Investments
- In late 2024, Tejon Ranch announced a joint venture with Dedeaux Properties to construct a 510,385 square foot warehouse facility, with plans for a new residential area in 2025 to expand its industrial portfolio.
- The company continued its partnership with Majestic Realty Co., undertaking the construction of a nearly 630,000 square foot industrial building in 2021, which was anticipated for occupancy in late 2022.
- Tejon Ranch expanded its partnership with Majestic Realty Co. for a multi-family residential complex at the Tejon Ranch Commerce Center (TRCC), with groundbreaking expected in late 2022 and anticipated occupancy in late 2023.
Capital Expenditures
- Tejon Ranch invested significantly in large real estate projects, with development spending increasing from $337 million at the end of 2023 to $357 million by mid-2024.
- The company reported $12.2 million in capital expenditures during Q3 2025, primarily allocated to long-term assets and infrastructure.
- A primary focus of capital expenditures includes the construction of the first phase of Terra Vista at Tejon, a multi-family community within TRCC, which began in the first quarter of 2024. Additionally, Tejon Ranch continues to invest in its residential projects, such as Mountain Village, Centennial, and Grapevine at Tejon Ranch.
Peer Outperformance in Industrial Conglomerates
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRC | Tejon Ranch | -0.4% | 73.0x | 3.2% | 2.4% | -10.2% | — |
| CSL | Carlisle Companies | 1.7% | 18.1x | 0.5% | 28.4% | 67.5% | +78pp |
| MMM | 3M | 3.2% | 28.4x | 6.9% | 140.2% | 31.0% | +41pp |
| HON | Honeywell International | 0.1% | 8.2x | 9.1% | 28.9% | 13.5% | +24pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Construction & Engineering | 31 | 10.7% | 133.3% | 197.3% | STRL 2288% · FIX 2276% · CDNL 2109% |
| Marine Transportation | 5 | 89.4% | 70.5% | 178.3% | HOS 40532% · MATX 190% · KEX 178% |
| Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment | 13 | 1.9% | 50.2% | 101.2% | CAT 381% · ALSN 254% · WAB 232% |
| Aerospace & Defense | 54 | -14.6% | 63.3% | 73.5% | ATI 1047% · FTAI 933% · HWM 631% |
| Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components | 72 | 11.2% | 51.8% | 51.6% | PSIX 1145% · CRS 1143% · EROC 684% |
| Trading Companies & Distributors | 19 | 7.3% | 38.3% | 49.1% | DXPE 509% · AIT 277% · WCC 231% |
| Rail Transportation | 7 | 19.0% | 60.3% | 46.1% | FSTR 124% · CSX 58% · RAIL 55% |
| Electrical Components & Equipment | 39 | 0.9% | 60.5% | 30.9% | POWL 2471% · BE 1444% · VRT 1000% |
| Cargo Ground Transportation | 16 | 31.6% | 2.8% | 29.9% | XPO 275% · R 218% · CVLG 148% |
| Diversified Support Services | 32 | 8.7% | 29.8% | 28.9% | LIME 3079% · TH 354% · CXW 254% |
| Building Products | 33 | -13.0% | 4.2% | 15.6% | LMB 713% · GFF 346% · PPIH 282% |
| Industrial Conglomerates ← | 17 | 9.1% | 2.4% | -1.2% | RCMT 585% · CSW 124% · DD 73% |
| Agricultural & Farm Machinery | 17 | 13.3% | 3.5% | -4.2% | BLBD 179% · DE 112% · GENC 65% |
| Passenger Ground Transportation | 3 | -27.5% | 42.1% | -6.2% | UBER 44% · CAR -6% · LYFT -71% |
| Environmental & Facilities Services | 30 | -26.3% | 14.6% | -10.7% | CECO 936% · ADUR 434% · NVRI 322% |
| Research & Consulting Services | 13 | -11.5% | -28.6% | -17.2% | HURN 212% · CRAI 70% · GRNQ 22% |
| Security & Alarm Services | 9 | -37.6% | 37.5% | -17.5% | CIX 167% · MG 119% · BCO 69% |
| Office Services & Supplies | 9 | 17.3% | 20.6% | -27.5% | PBI 174% · TILE 128% · HNI 48% |
| Data Processing & Outsourced Services | 6 | -34.8% | -15.1% | -27.7% | EXLS 42% · BR 3% · G -25% |
| Passenger Airlines | 11 | 12.6% | 23.1% | -33.8% | LTM 3384% · UAL 126% · DAL 98% |
| Air Freight & Logistics | 12 | -25.7% | -25.8% | -37.9% | FDX 79% · EXPD 76% · CHRW 70% |
| Human Resource & Employment Services | 22 | 2.6% | -21.1% | -42.5% | BBSI 66% · ADP 41% · KFY 2% |
| Airport Services | 3 | -78.6% | -78.5% | -71.8% | JOBY -37% · ASLE -72% · UP -100% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Tejon Ranch Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| How Low Can Tejon Ranch Stock Really Go? | 10/17/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 23.02 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.0 |
| Rev LTM | 354 |
| Op Inc LTM | 102 |
| FCF LTM | 131 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 41 |
| CFO LTM | 144 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 44 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 17.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 13.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.3% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 37.3% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 5.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 24.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 21.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.9% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 35.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 31.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 31.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 22.0% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Farming | 19 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 11 |
| Real estate - commercial / industrial | 15 | 13 | 12 | 41 | 19 |
| Mineral Resources | 10 | 10 | 15 | 22 | 21 |
| Ranch Operations | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| Multifamily | 1 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Total | 50 | 42 | 45 | 79 | 56 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real estate - commercial / industrial | 15 | 16 | 11 | 32 | 8 |
| Mineral Resources | 3 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 7 |
| Ranch Operations | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Farming | -0 | -4 | -1 | -7 | -3 |
| Multifamily | -2 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Real Estate - Resort / Residential | -2 | -3 | -2 | -2 | -2 |
| Corporate expenses | -10 | ||||
| Total | 14 | 13 | 13 | 31 | -0 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Estate - Resort / Residential | 341 | 331 | 321 | 313 | 306 |
| Real estate - commercial / industrial | 65 | 69 | 71 | 74 | 82 |
| Multifamily | 64 | 29 | 3 | ||
| Mineral Resources | 62 | 55 | 52 | 49 | 52 |
| Farming | 59 | 54 | 52 | 46 | 47 |
| Corporate | 38 | 68 | 77 | 83 | 56 |
| Ranch Operations | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Total | 630 | 608 | 578 | 567 | 546 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $16.33 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/17/1992 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -20.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $16.38 | $17.71 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | down |
| Distance from DMA | -0.3% | -7.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 16.6% | 20.8% |
| Downside Capture | 64.86 | 31.01 |
| Upside Capture | -5.61 | 28.95 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 19.3% | 15.7% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.53 | 0.32 | 0.28 | 0.12 | 0.26 | 0.45 |
| Up Beta | -0.34 | 0.13 | 0.25 | 0.21 | 0.09 | 0.47 |
| Down Beta | 1.97 | 0.89 | 0.95 | 0.05 | 0.42 | 0.34 |
| Up Capture | 49% | 15% | -17% | -6% | 17% | 16% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 6 | 16 | 27 | 66 | 132 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 19 | 27 | 59 | 125 | 362 |
| Down Capture | 42% | 64% | 68% | 40% | 35% | 80% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 16 | 26 | 37 | 60 | 120 | 328 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 21 | 35 | 63 | 121 | 376 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TRC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRC | 0.9% | 20.9% | -0.06 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 12.1% | 17.3% | 0.49 | 16.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 17.5% | 13.0% | 0.96 | 15.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 6.9% | 29.6% | 0.23 | 4.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 46.1% | 20.8% | 1.71 | -10.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.1% | 13.7% | -0.10 | 35.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -29.8% | 44.3% | -0.67 | 13.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TRC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRC | -1.9% | 25.7% | -0.09 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.1% | 17.6% | 0.57 | 44.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.9% | 17.1% | 0.62 | 39.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.7% | 18.9% | 0.80 | 6.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.3% | 19.5% | 0.40 | 6.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.2% | 18.8% | -0.04 | 47.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 16.0% | 52.2% | 0.47 | 20.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TRC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRC | -3.8% | 27.1% | -0.11 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.4% | 20.0% | 0.59 | 50.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.6% | 17.9% | 0.74 | 47.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.6% | 16.4% | 0.58 | 3.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.3% | 18.1% | 0.37 | 15.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.2% | 20.7% | 0.16 | 48.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 64.1% | 66.2% | 1.04 | 15.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/11/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/19/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/06/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/06/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/08/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/07/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/11/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/19/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/06/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/06/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/08/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/07/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/03/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 03/03/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/03/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/04/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 03/10/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/07/2019 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Updated 7/28/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brown, Brett A | Executive Vice President / CFO | Direct | Sell | 7112025 | 18.55 | 5,356 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brown, Brett A | Executive Vice President / CFO | Direct | Sell | 7112025 | 18.55 | 5,356 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Industrials Resources |
| IndustryWeek |
| Manufacturing.net |
| Aviation Week |
| Industrial Conglomerates Resources |
| Bloomberg Businessweek |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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