Tearsheet

Forestar (FOR)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $26.65 | Market Cap: $1.4 Bil
Sector: Real Estate | Industry: Real Estate Development

Forestar (FOR)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $26.65
Market Cap: $1.4 Bil
Sector: Real Estate
Industry: Real Estate Development

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.3%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -61%
Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -12%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -12%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 37%
  Key risks
FOR key risks include [1] a critical dependence on D.R. Show more.
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Urbanization & Housing Growth. Themes include Residential Lot Development, Community Infrastructure, and Sustainable Land Use & Planning.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.3%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 37%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Urbanization & Housing Growth. Themes include Residential Lot Development, Community Infrastructure, and Sustainable Land Use & Planning.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -61%
4 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -12%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -12%
5 Key risks
FOR key risks include [1] a critical dependence on D.R. Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

FOR Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

**1. Forestar's Q4 2025 Financial Results Exceeded Expectations but Full-Year Net Income Decreased**

On October 28, 2025, Forestar Group Inc. reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended September 30, 2025. The company announced a 7% increase in net income for Q4 2025, reaching $87.0 million or $1.70 per diluted share, surpassing analyst forecasts. Consolidated revenues also increased by 22% to $670.5 million on 4,891 lots sold, exceeding expectations. However, for the full fiscal year 2025, net income decreased by 17% to $167.9 million or $3.29 per diluted share compared to fiscal year 2024. **2. Q2 2025 Earnings Miss Led to a Stock Dip**

In its second-quarter earnings report for 2025, Forestar Group Inc. missed both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue forecasts, which led to a 4.2% drop in the stock price on April 17, 2025. The company posted an EPS of $0.62 against an expected $0.67, and revenue of $351 million, falling short of the forecasted $386.14 million. **3. Analyst Ratings and Price Targets**

As of December 2025, Forestar Group (FOR) has a consensus "Moderate Buy" rating from Wall Street analysts, with some firms issuing "Buy" ratings and no "Sell" ratings. The average 12-month price target from analysts in the past three months is $32.00, with a high forecast of $36.00 and a low forecast of $25.00, suggesting a potential upside from its current price. **4. Increased CEO Compensation in 2025**

Forestar Group Inc.'s CEO, Anthony W. Oxley, received an estimated compensation of $4,188,576 in 2025, marking an increase of 34.28% from his estimated compensation in 2024. This information was based on a DEF14A filing with the SEC on December 16, 2025. **5. Upcoming Q1 2026 Earnings Release**

Forestar Group Inc. is scheduled to release its financial results for the first quarter ended December 31, 2025, on Tuesday, January 20, 2026, before the market opens. The company will also host a conference call on the same morning to discuss the results.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
FOR Return-3%8%-29%115%-22%4%29%
Peers Return43%33%-26%53%-2%23%164%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
FOR Win Rate50%58%42%58%33%33% 
Peers Win Rate63%65%42%53%47%53% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
FOR Max Drawdown-54%-8%-52%-9%-23%-29% 
Peers Max Drawdown-36%-6%-44%-6%-13%-8% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GRBK, FPH, JOE, TRC, DHI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventFORS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-59.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven147.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven273 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-57.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven135.1%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven294 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-51.3%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven105.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,677 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-89.8%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven878.0%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven5,360 days1,480 days

Compare to JOE, AXR, OZ, HHH, FOR


In The Past

Forestar's stock fell -59.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/16/2021. A -59.6% loss requires a 147.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Forestar (FOR)

Better Bets than Forestar (FOR)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to FOR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
MPW_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025MPWMedical Properties TrustSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-3.6%-3.6%-5.8%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
MPW_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025MPWMedical Properties TrustSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-3.6%-3.6%-5.8%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Forestar

Peers to compare with:

Financials

FORGRBKFPHJOETRCDHIMedian
NameForestar Green Br.Five Poi.St. Joe Tejon Ra.D.R. Hor. 
Mkt Price26.6265.445.5461.7315.94152.0044.17
Mkt Cap1.42.80.83.60.445.02.1
Rev LTM1,6622,1131944894634,2501,076
Op Inc LTM20943924132-84,424171
FCF LTM-199158209148-703,284153
FCF 3Y Avg11399422-423,15458
CFO LTM-19816220917693,421169
CFO 3Y Avg314494125103,305110

Growth & Margins

FORGRBKFPHJOETRCDHIMedian
NameForestar Green Br.Five Poi.St. Joe Tejon Ra.D.R. Hor. 
Rev Chg LTM10.1%6.6%-1.5%26.9%15.7%-6.9%8.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg3.3%6.1%10.1%19.4%-11.8%0.9%4.7%
Rev Chg Q21.6%-4.7%-20.7%62.7%10.3%-3.2%3.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM7.7%-1.1%-1.8%14.5%2.5%-0.9%0.8%
Op Mgn LTM12.6%20.8%12.3%27.1%-17.5%12.9%12.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg14.3%20.5%9.4%24.2%-18.3%15.4%14.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.5%-0.5%-3.6%3.5%4.3%-1.2%-0.5%
CFO/Rev LTM-11.9%7.7%107.8%36.0%19.7%10.0%14.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg1.0%7.7%55.3%29.9%22.0%9.4%15.7%
FCF/Rev LTM-12.0%7.5%107.8%30.3%-150.0%9.6%8.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg0.9%7.4%55.3%2.6%-96.7%8.9%5.0%

Valuation

FORGRBKFPHJOETRCDHIMedian
NameForestar Green Br.Five Poi.St. Joe Tejon Ra.D.R. Hor. 
Mkt Cap1.42.80.83.60.445.02.1
P/S0.81.54.75.99.31.33.1
P/EBIT6.57.338.416.6-52.910.28.7
P/E8.19.59.727.4144.312.511.1
P/CFO-6.919.84.416.246.913.114.7
Total Yield12.4%10.5%10.3%4.8%0.7%9.1%9.7%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%1.1%0.0%1.1%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg0.8%6.5%12.7%0.9%-9.4%7.1%3.7%
D/E0.60.10.50.20.20.10.2
Net D/E0.30.10.10.20.20.10.1

Returns

FORGRBKFPHJOETRCDHIMedian
NameForestar Green Br.Five Poi.St. Joe Tejon Ra.D.R. Hor. 
1M Rtn14.1%6.2%-12.1%8.3%0.3%10.3%7.3%
3M Rtn-0.6%-8.8%-13.6%20.3%-2.4%-10.3%-5.6%
6M Rtn37.4%9.8%-0.4%32.5%-3.2%26.0%17.9%
12M Rtn-1.4%4.3%46.2%34.5%5.4%4.8%5.1%
3Y Rtn72.1%161.0%170.2%70.9%-14.0%75.1%73.6%
1M Excs Rtn13.3%5.5%-12.8%7.6%-0.5%9.6%6.5%
3M Excs Rtn-3.0%-11.3%-16.0%17.3%-4.0%-11.5%-7.6%
6M Excs Rtn25.0%-2.6%-12.7%20.1%-15.6%13.7%5.5%
12M Excs Rtn-15.5%-9.2%34.7%22.8%-7.0%-8.5%-7.7%
3Y Excs Rtn6.7%101.3%103.1%7.5%-83.0%13.1%10.3%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Real estate segment1,509    
Deferred development lot sales 2927  
Residential lot sales 1,2761,4561,293880
Tract sales and other 132373352
Total1,5091,4371,5191,326932


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Real estate segment    1,740
Total    1,740


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity567,293
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-3.4%
Average Daily Volume121,292
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.68
Basic Shares Quantity50,941,671
Short % of Basic Shares1.1%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/28/20257.3%-1.7%-2.3%
7/22/20258.2%13.5%24.7%
4/17/2025-0.6%4.1%6.2%
1/21/2025-9.4%-10.0%-13.6%
10/29/2024-0.2%-1.4%-4.3%
7/18/2024-13.2%-14.9%-17.9%
4/18/2024-8.4%-8.8%0.6%
1/23/2024-6.7%-8.2%-5.9%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive131514
# Negative121011
Median Positive6.9%6.1%8.9%
Median Negative-4.2%-8.5%-5.9%
Max Positive15.7%22.1%32.9%
Max Negative-13.2%-14.9%-17.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251119202510-K 9/30/2025
6302025723202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025422202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024123202510-Q 12/31/2024
93020241119202410-K 9/30/2024
6302024722202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024423202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023124202410-Q 12/31/2023
93020231117202310-K 9/30/2023
6302023721202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023424202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022125202310-Q 12/31/2022
93020221117202210-K 9/30/2022
6302022720202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022422202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021128202210-Q 12/31/2021