Forestar (FOR)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $26.65 | Market Cap: $1.4 BilSector: Real Estate | Industry: Real Estate Development
Forestar (FOR)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $26.65Market Cap: $1.4 BilSector: Real EstateIndustry: Real Estate Development
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.3% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -61% | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -12%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -12% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 37% | Key risksFOR key risks include [1] a critical dependence on D.R. Show more. | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Urbanization & Housing Growth. Themes include Residential Lot Development, Community Infrastructure, and Sustainable Land Use & Planning. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.3% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 37% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Urbanization & Housing Growth. Themes include Residential Lot Development, Community Infrastructure, and Sustainable Land Use & Planning. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -61% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -12%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -12% |
| Key risksFOR key risks include [1] a critical dependence on D.R. Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
FOR Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
**1. Forestar's Q4 2025 Financial Results Exceeded Expectations but Full-Year Net Income Decreased**
On October 28, 2025, Forestar Group Inc. reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended September 30, 2025. The company announced a 7% increase in net income for Q4 2025, reaching $87.0 million or $1.70 per diluted share, surpassing analyst forecasts. Consolidated revenues also increased by 22% to $670.5 million on 4,891 lots sold, exceeding expectations. However, for the full fiscal year 2025, net income decreased by 17% to $167.9 million or $3.29 per diluted share compared to fiscal year 2024.
**2. Q2 2025 Earnings Miss Led to a Stock Dip**
In its second-quarter earnings report for 2025, Forestar Group Inc. missed both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue forecasts, which led to a 4.2% drop in the stock price on April 17, 2025. The company posted an EPS of $0.62 against an expected $0.67, and revenue of $351 million, falling short of the forecasted $386.14 million.
**3. Analyst Ratings and Price Targets**
As of December 2025, Forestar Group (FOR) has a consensus "Moderate Buy" rating from Wall Street analysts, with some firms issuing "Buy" ratings and no "Sell" ratings. The average 12-month price target from analysts in the past three months is $32.00, with a high forecast of $36.00 and a low forecast of $25.00, suggesting a potential upside from its current price.
**4. Increased CEO Compensation in 2025**
Forestar Group Inc.'s CEO, Anthony W. Oxley, received an estimated compensation of $4,188,576 in 2025, marking an increase of 34.28% from his estimated compensation in 2024. This information was based on a DEF14A filing with the SEC on December 16, 2025.
**5. Upcoming Q1 2026 Earnings Release**
Forestar Group Inc. is scheduled to release its financial results for the first quarter ended December 31, 2025, on Tuesday, January 20, 2026, before the market opens. The company will also host a conference call on the same morning to discuss the results.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| FOR Return | -3% | 8% | -29% | 115% | -22% | 4% | 29% |
| Peers Return | 43% | 33% | -26% | 53% | -2% | 23% | 164% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| FOR Win Rate | 50% | 58% | 42% | 58% | 33% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 65% | 42% | 53% | 47% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| FOR Max Drawdown | -54% | -8% | -52% | -9% | -23% | -29% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -36% | -6% | -44% | -6% | -13% | -8% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GRBK, FPH, JOE, TRC, DHI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | FOR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -59.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 147.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 273 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -57.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 135.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 294 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -51.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 105.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,677 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -89.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 878.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 5,360 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to JOE, AXR, OZ, HHH, FOR
In The Past
Forestar's stock fell -59.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/16/2021. A -59.6% loss requires a 147.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to FOR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | MPW | Medical Properties Trust | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -3.6% | -3.6% | -5.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | MPW | Medical Properties Trust | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -3.6% | -3.6% | -5.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Forestar
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 44.17 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.1 |
| Rev LTM | 1,076 |
| Op Inc LTM | 171 |
| FCF LTM | 153 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 58 |
| CFO LTM | 169 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 110 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 12.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 14.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 14.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.1 |
| P/S | 3.1 |
| P/EBIT | 8.7 |
| P/E | 11.1 |
| P/CFO | 14.7 |
| Total Yield | 9.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.7% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 7.3% |
| 3M Rtn | -5.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 17.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 5.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 73.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 6.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -7.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 5.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -7.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 10.3% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real estate segment | 1,509 | ||||
| Deferred development lot sales | 29 | 27 | |||
| Residential lot sales | 1,276 | 1,456 | 1,293 | 880 | |
| Tract sales and other | 132 | 37 | 33 | 52 | |
| Total | 1,509 | 1,437 | 1,519 | 1,326 | 932 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real estate segment | 1,740 | ||||
| Total | 1,740 |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/28/2025 | 7.3% | -1.7% | -2.3% |
| 7/22/2025 | 8.2% | 13.5% | 24.7% |
| 4/17/2025 | -0.6% | 4.1% | 6.2% |
| 1/21/2025 | -9.4% | -10.0% | -13.6% |
| 10/29/2024 | -0.2% | -1.4% | -4.3% |
| 7/18/2024 | -13.2% | -14.9% | -17.9% |
| 4/18/2024 | -8.4% | -8.8% | 0.6% |
| 1/23/2024 | -6.7% | -8.2% | -5.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 15 | 14 |
| # Negative | 12 | 10 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 6.9% | 6.1% | 8.9% |
| Median Negative | -4.2% | -8.5% | -5.9% |
| Max Positive | 15.7% | 22.1% | 32.9% |
| Max Negative | -13.2% | -14.9% | -17.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11192025 | 10-K 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7232025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4222025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 1232025 | 10-Q 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11192024 | 10-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7222024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4232024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 1242024 | 10-Q 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11172023 | 10-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7212023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4242023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 1252023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11172022 | 10-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7202022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4222022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 1282022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
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