Forestar (FOR)


Market Price (11/10/2026): $24.115 | Market Cap: $1.2 BilSector: Real Estate | Industry: Real Estate Development

Forestar (FOR)


Market Price (11/10/2026): $24.115
Market Cap: $1.2 Bil
Sector: Real Estate
Industry: Real Estate Development

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.1%, FCF Yield is 23%

Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%

Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%

Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 34%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Urbanization & Housing Growth. Themes include Residential Lot Development, Community Infrastructure, and Sustainable Land Use & Planning.

Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -52%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -75%

Key risks
FOR key risks include [1] a critical dependence on D.R. Show more.

0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.1%, FCF Yield is 23%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 34%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Urbanization & Housing Growth. Themes include Residential Lot Development, Community Infrastructure, and Sustainable Land Use & Planning.
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -52%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -75%
6 Key risks
FOR key risks include [1] a critical dependence on D.R. Show more.

FOR in ETFs

Weight = FOR's share of each fund

VTI0.00%
ITOT0.00%
IWM0.02%
VB0.01%
AVUV0.07%
VNQ0.03%
IWN0.03%
DFAS0.03%
+6 more covered ETFs

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

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Updated on 11/1/2026

Forestar (FOR) stock has lost about 15% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Forestar's fiscal Q4 2026 earnings missed analyst expectations for both revenue and diluted earnings per share (EPS). The company reported diluted EPS of $1.15, which was below the consensus estimate of $1.25. Additionally, revenue for the fourth fiscal quarter, which ended September 30, 2026, was $580.8 million, falling short of analyst forecasts of $603.1 million and representing a 13.4% year-over-year decrease.

2. The company issued a weaker-than-anticipated outlook for fiscal 2027. Forestar's guidance projected fiscal 2027 lot deliveries to be between 12,000 and 13,000, and revenue to range from $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion. This forecast is significantly lower than the 13,545 lots delivered and $1.6 billion in revenue achieved in fiscal 2026, contributing to negative investor sentiment.

Show more
Updated on 11/1/2026

Forestar (FOR) stock has lost about 15% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Forestar's fiscal Q4 2026 earnings missed analyst expectations for both revenue and diluted earnings per share (EPS). The company reported diluted EPS of $1.15, which was below the consensus estimate of $1.25. Additionally, revenue for the fourth fiscal quarter, which ended September 30, 2026, was $580.8 million, falling short of analyst forecasts of $603.1 million and representing a 13.4% year-over-year decrease.

2. The company issued a weaker-than-anticipated outlook for fiscal 2027. Forestar's guidance projected fiscal 2027 lot deliveries to be between 12,000 and 13,000, and revenue to range from $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion. This forecast is significantly lower than the 13,545 lots delivered and $1.6 billion in revenue achieved in fiscal 2026, contributing to negative investor sentiment.

3. Rising mortgage rates and ongoing affordability concerns dampened new-home demand. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed above 7% in fiscal Q3 2026 and reached 7.40% by mid-October 2026, leading to an estimated 7.2% loss in purchasing power for buyers. This macroeconomic pressure resulted in lower average lot pricing for Forestar and compressed its gross margins to 17.8% in fiscal Q4 2026, down from 22.3% in the same period of the prior year.

4. A decline in residential fixed investment and an increase in vacant housing stock indicated a challenging housing market. Residential fixed investment (RFI) decreased by 3.3% in fiscal Q3 2026, with single-family permanent site structures seeing a 5.0% annual rate reduction. Concurrently, the number of vacant housing units on the market for sale or rent surged by 7.1% year-over-year in fiscal Q3 2026, indicating an oversupply that strengthened buyers' leverage in the market.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -14.4% change in FOR stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/9/2026 was primarily driven by a -14.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)731202611092026Change
Stock Price ($)28.1524.10-14.4%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)1,7251,7250.0%
Net Income Margin (%)9.9%9.9%0.0%
P/E Multiple8.47.2-14.4%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)51510.0%
Cumulative Contribution-14.4%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

7/31/2026 to 11/9/2026
ReturnCorrelation
FOR-14.4% 
Market (SPY)0.8%38.4%
Sector (XLRE)-1.0%50.1%

Fundamental Drivers

The -14.7% change in FOR stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/9/2026 was primarily driven by a -16.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)430202611092026Change
Stock Price ($)28.2624.10-14.7%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)1,7081,7251.0%
Net Income Margin (%)9.8%9.9%0.8%
P/E Multiple8.67.2-16.0%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)5151-0.2%
Cumulative Contribution-14.7%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

4/30/2026 to 11/9/2026
ReturnCorrelation
FOR-14.7% 
Market (SPY)5.0%29.9%
Sector (XLRE)1.4%43.0%

Fundamental Drivers

The -7.3% change in FOR stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/9/2026 was primarily driven by a -11.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)1031202511092026Change
Stock Price ($)26.0124.10-7.3%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)1,5431,72511.8%
Net Income Margin (%)10.5%9.9%-6.3%
P/E Multiple8.17.2-11.2%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)5151-0.4%
Cumulative Contribution-7.3%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

10/31/2025 to 11/9/2026
ReturnCorrelation
FOR-7.3% 
Market (SPY)11.3%32.5%
Sector (XLRE)12.1%42.8%

Fundamental Drivers

The 1.5% change in FOR stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 36.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)1031202311092026Change
Stock Price ($)23.7524.101.5%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)1,2681,72536.0%
Net Income Margin (%)11.5%9.9%-13.8%
P/E Multiple8.27.2-11.7%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)5051-2.0%
Cumulative Contribution1.5%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

10/31/2023 to 11/9/2026
ReturnCorrelation
FOR1.5% 
Market (SPY)86.2%37.7%
Sector (XLRE)48.2%43.3%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
FOR Return8%-29%115%-22%-5%-2%19%
Peers Return33%-26%53%-2%19%7%91%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%8%96%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
FOR Win Rate58%42%58%33%25%55% 
Peers Win Rate65%42%53%47%52%56% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%36% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
FOR Max Drawdown-28%-53%-26%-37%-32%-27% 
Peers Max Drawdown-26%-46%-30%-28%-22%-24% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: GRBK, FPH, JOE, TRC, DHI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/9/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventFORS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-20.3%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven25.4%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven92 days79 days
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-21.0%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven26.6%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven19 days24 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-53.0%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven112.8%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven251 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-54.0%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven117.5%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven266 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-38.1%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven61.5%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven224 days105 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-35.9%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven56.0%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven50 days62 days

Compare to GRBK, FPH, JOE, TRC, DHI

In The Past

Forestar's stock fell -20.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 25.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventFORS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-20.3%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven25.4%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven92 days79 days
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-21.0%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven26.6%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven19 days24 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-53.0%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven112.8%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven251 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-54.0%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven117.5%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven266 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-38.1%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven61.5%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven224 days105 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-35.9%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven56.0%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven50 days62 days
2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse
  % Loss-58.0%-6.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven138.1%7.3%
  Time to Breakeven649 days15 days
2013 Taper Tantrum
  % Loss-20.4%-0.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven25.7%0.2%
  Time to Breakeven1323 days1 days
2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion
  % Loss-41.5%-17.9%
  % Gain to Breakeven71.0%21.8%
  Time to Breakeven347 days123 days
2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash
  % Loss-33.4%-15.4%
  % Gain to Breakeven50.2%18.2%
  Time to Breakeven973 days125 days
2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis
  % Loss-87.6%-53.4%
  % Gain to Breakeven705.1%114.4%
  Time to Breakeven1630 days1085 days

Compare to GRBK, FPH, JOE, TRC, DHI

In The Past

Forestar's stock fell -20.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 25.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Forestar (FOR)

Forestar Group Inc. (FOR) is a leading residential lot development company operating across the United States. The company specializes in the critical initial phase of housing construction by identifying and acquiring undeveloped land. Subsequently, Forestar undertakes comprehensive infrastructure development, transforming raw land into shovel-ready sites for new homes.

Its core business involves developing and selling finished residential single-family lots. These lots are equipped with essential utilities and infrastructure, making them ready for construction. Forestar's primary customers are homebuilders, to whom it sells these developed lots. Notably, Forestar operates as a subsidiary of D.R. Horton, Inc., one of the largest homebuilders in the United States, which provides a strategic relationship within the housing market.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Forestar (FOR):

  • TSMC for residential land development.
  • Intel for residential building lots.
  • Corning for residential building lots.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Residential Single-Family Finished Lots: Forestar develops land by adding infrastructure and sells these ready-to-build lots to homebuilders for the construction of single-family residences.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Forestar (FOR) primarily sells its residential single-family finished lots to other companies, specifically homebuilders.

Its major customer is:

  • D.R. Horton, Inc. (symbol: DHI)

Forestar is a subsidiary of D.R. Horton, Inc., and frequently provides lots for D.R. Horton's homebuilding operations.

AI Analysis | Feedback

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Anthony W. Oxley President and Chief Executive Officer

Anthony (Andy) W. Oxley has served as President and Chief Executive Officer of Forestar since January 2024. Before joining Forestar, Mr. Oxley was D.R. Horton's Senior Vice President – Business Development, where he oversaw all mergers and acquisitions activity and new market opportunities for start-up divisions. During his 25-year tenure with D.R. Horton, he was involved in land acquisition, land banking and development, homebuilding, and daily division operations, as well as property, technology, and innovation investments. Prior to his time at D.R. Horton, Mr. Oxley was a partner at the Atlanta-based law firm Hyatt & Stubblefield, P.C.

James D. Allen Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer

James D. Allen assumed the roles of Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, and Treasurer of Forestar in March 2020. Mr. Allen brings over 35 years of operating and financial experience across various industries, including manufacturing. Most recently, he was a Senior Operating Partner at Palm Beach Capital, a private equity investment firm, where he was responsible for operational oversight and financial support for their portfolio companies. Prior to Palm Beach Capital, he served as CFO of Hollander Sleep Products and held executive positions at both private and public companies. These roles include Operating Vice President and Group CFO at Sun Capital Partners, a private equity firm, Chief Administrative Officer at Mattress Firm Inc., and various C-Suite roles at Tandycrafts Inc. Mr. Allen began his career at PricewaterhouseCoopers, where he spent 10 years.

Donald J. Tomnitz Executive Chairman of the Board

Donald J. Tomnitz has been the Executive Chairman of the Board of Forestar since October 2017. Previously, he served as the Vice Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of D.R. Horton, Inc. from November 1998 to September 2014. His career at D.R. Horton also included various Vice President and President roles from 1983 to 1998. Before his tenure at D.R. Horton, Mr. Tomnitz was a captain in the U.S. Army, a Vice President of RepublicBank of Dallas, N.A., and a Vice President of Crow Development Company, a Trammell Crow Company.

Mark S. Walker Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer

Mark S. Walker was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of Forestar in October 2022. He joined Forestar in February 2019 as a Region President, and his responsibilities progressively expanded to include oversight of the Mid-Atlantic, North, and Texas regions. Prior to joining Forestar, Mr. Walker spent time at D.R. Horton, Inc. from January 2012 to January 2019 as a Vice President in land acquisition and development. With over 20 years of experience in residential real estate, he has held diverse operational roles at both public and private homebuilders, including Division President at Robert Harris Homes and Vice President of Operations for a private builder.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The key risks to Forestar's business are:
  1. Cyclicality of the Residential Real Estate Market: Forestar's business is highly susceptible to the inherent cyclical nature of the real estate and homebuilding industries. Fluctuations in economic conditions, such as interest rates, employment levels, consumer confidence, housing demand, and the availability of financing for homebuyers and lot purchasers, can significantly impact the company's financial results. Elevated mortgage interest rates, for instance, can dampen demand for residential lots, adversely affecting Forestar's business and financial performance. In adverse economic conditions, homebuilders may be less willing or able to purchase lots, potentially leading to increased contract cancellations.
  2. Dependence on D.R. Horton: Forestar Group Inc. is a subsidiary of D.R. Horton, Inc., which owns a majority stake in the company. While this strategic relationship provides a stable demand channel and financial backing, it also exposes Forestar to risks associated with concentrated ownership and potential conflicts of interest. A significant portion of Forestar's lot sales are to D.R. Horton, making the company highly dependent on its parent's operational decisions and market performance. Changes in D.R. Horton's business strategy or a weakening of their relationship could materially impact Forestar.
  3. Operational Challenges and Cost Volatility: Forestar faces ongoing operational risks related to the cost and availability of materials, labor shortages, and delays in governmental and municipal approvals. The cost of materials like steel, concrete, and petroleum-based products is subject to commodity price fluctuations, government regulations, and trade restrictions. Sourcing qualified labor at reasonable prices also remains a challenge. Delays in municipal approvals can affect development activities, leading to revenue delays and higher costs, which directly impact profitability and project timelines.

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The addressable market for Forestar Group Inc.'s primary products and services is the U.S. land development market.

The market size for Land Development in the U.S. was approximately $22.5 billion in 2025. This market is projected to reach $22.6 billion in 2026.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Forestar Group Inc. (FOR) Expected Revenue Growth Drivers

Over the next 2-3 years, Forestar Group Inc. (FOR) is expected to drive future revenue growth through several key strategies:
  • Increasing Market Share: Forestar aims to significantly expand its market share, with a stated goal to double it to 5% over the intermediate term. This growth is anticipated through strategic expansion within its existing operational footprint and potentially via selective acquisitions.
  • Strategic Relationship with D.R. Horton: As a subsidiary of D.R. Horton, the largest homebuilder in the United States, Forestar benefits from a consistent and substantial demand for its developed lots. This strategic partnership provides a foundational volume of sales and enhances Forestar's financial flexibility.
  • Geographic Expansion and Diversification: The company plans to continue expanding its operational platform and diversifying its geographic presence. Forestar operates in 64 markets across 23 states, providing a robust base for further market share consolidation within the fragmented lot development industry.
  • Focus on Affordable Housing and Addressing Lot Supply Constraints: Forestar is strategically focused on developing lots for affordable homes, capitalizing on the ongoing constrained supply of residential lots. This approach aligns with market demand and leverages the company's expertise in this segment.
  • Leveraging Strong Balance Sheet and Liquidity: Forestar's robust balance sheet and considerable liquidity position provide the company with the financial agility to invest in new land opportunities. This financial strength is crucial for acquiring and developing land, which directly supports an increase in lot deliveries and, consequently, revenue growth.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Capital Allocation Decisions (Last 3-5 Years)

Capital Expenditures

  • Forestar invested over $7.3 billion in land acquisition and development during the five fiscal years ended September 30, 2025.
  • The primary focus of these capital expenditures is land acquisition and development for single-family residential communities.
  • The company strategically invests in entitled, short-duration projects that can be developed in phases, allowing for efficient capital deployment aligned with market demand.

Better Bets vs. Forestar (FOR)

Peer Outperformance in Real Estate Development

FOR has outperformed 60% of its 5 Real Estate Development peers over 5Y. Among the peers that beat it is JOE. Real Estate Development ranks 5th of 12 industries in Real Estate by median 5Y return.
Share of Real Estate Development constituents that FOR has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
50%
of 8 industry peers · -0.9% return
3Y
29%
of 7 industry peers · -18.3% return
5Y
60%
of 5 industry peers · 13.7% return
Real Estate Development peers with revenue growth within 4pp of FOR's that beat it on at least 2 of 3 windows, and by at least 20pp over 5Y. Growth is matched by construction, so the gap is largely a re-rating gap. The multiple column is the context for it.
Ticker Name Rev Growth 3Y Avg P/E 1Y3Y5Y 5Y Gap
FOR Forestar 11.0% 7.2x -0.9%-18.3%13.7% —
JOE St. Joe 14.6% 35.2x 29.6%58.8%52.0% +38pp
Price returns, excluding dividends. P/E shown for context only and not used for matching.
Median price return by industry across the Real Estate sector, ranked by 5Y. Real Estate Development is FOR's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
Industry Names 1Y med3Y med5Y med Top 3 by 5Y
Health Care REITs 15 18.7%67.8%68.5% WELL 225% · OHI 152% · CTRE 134%
Retail REITs 23 17.3%43.0%35.7% SKT 139% · SPG 81% · IVT 55%
Hotel & Resort REITs 16 52.0%54.7%13.4% HST 77% · RHP 76% · APLE 65%
Other Specialized REITs 11 0.5%24.6%12.3% IRM 182% · EPR 68% · LAMR 67%
Real Estate Development ← 6 -0.9%29.7%10.6% JOE 52%
Industrial REITs 11 14.3%36.8%1.9% EGP 17% · STAG 8% · CUBE 5%
Single-Family Residential REITs 4 1.5%4.7%-17.4% AMH -6% · ELS -14% · INVH -21%
Multi-Family Residential REITs 12 -0.8%19.5%-26.4% ESS -3% · VMRK -6% · UDR -19%
Diversified REITs 12 3.3%16.1%-28.9% EPRT 20% · WPC 16%
Office REITs 19 3.0%51.4%-31.4% CDP 47% · CUZ -4% · HIW -4%
Real Estate Services 27 -21.5%-18.3%-35.4% JLL 41% · CBRE 30% · COMP -14%
Telecom Tower REITs 3 3.1%7.9%-37.8% AMT -21% · CCI -38% · SBAC -41%
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are limited to companies above $2B market cap.

Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

FORGRBKFPHJOETRCDHIMedian
NameForestar Green Br.Five Poi.St. Joe Tejon Ra.D.R. Hor. 
Mkt Price24.1166.534.4675.1417.80155.6145.32
Mkt Cap1.22.90.74.30.543.92.0
Rev LTM1,7251,9261185436733,3501,134
Op Inc LTM214344-317443,810194
FCF LTM283706157-193,202114
FCF 3Y Avg-356679108-482,69573
CFO LTM284756188173,353132
CFO 3Y Avg-34727915192,84575

Growth & Margins

FORGRBKFPHJOETRCDHIMedian
NameForestar Green Br.Five Poi.St. Joe Tejon Ra.D.R. Hor. 
Rev Chg LTM11.8%-6.1%-39.1%11.1%45.4%-3.5%3.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg11.0%3.3%12.8%14.6%16.1%-1.0%11.9%
Rev Chg Q4.2%-8.8%8.4%-3.0%88.9%0.0%2.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.0%-2.2%1.0%-0.9%18.7%0.0%0.5%
Op Inc Chg LTM5.7%-24.3%-114.4%31.3%147.8%-22.1%-8.2%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg6.5%3.7%161.1%29.1%-207.8%-14.4%5.1%
Op Mgn LTM12.4%17.9%-2.9%32.0%5.8%11.4%11.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg13.6%20.8%11.1%27.3%-15.3%14.1%13.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.1%-1.0%2.4%1.9%6.7%-0.3%1.0%
CFO/Rev LTM16.5%3.9%5.4%34.7%25.9%10.1%13.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-2.8%3.6%41.4%31.3%15.2%8.2%11.7%
FCF/Rev LTM16.4%3.6%5.4%29.0%-28.9%9.6%7.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-2.9%3.3%41.4%21.5%-104.0%7.8%5.5%

Valuation

FORGRBKFPHJOETRCDHIMedian
NameForestar Green Br.Five Poi.St. Joe Tejon Ra.D.R. Hor. 
Mkt Cap1.22.90.74.30.543.92.0
P/S0.71.55.67.97.11.33.5
P/Op Inc5.88.3-192.524.5123.911.59.9
P/EBIT5.88.3-192.522.5123.911.59.9
P/E7.210.522.535.262.714.418.4
P/CFO4.338.1103.922.627.513.125.1
Total Yield13.8%9.6%4.5%3.7%1.6%8.1%6.3%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.1%0.0%0.9%0.0%1.2%0.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-2.2%2.2%9.1%3.3%-10.7%5.7%2.8%
D/E0.70.10.70.10.20.20.2
Net D/E0.30.10.10.10.20.10.1

Returns

FORGRBKFPHJOETRCDHIMedian
NameForestar Green Br.Five Poi.St. Joe Tejon Ra.D.R. Hor. 
1M Rtn-6.0%5.8%-0.4%15.8%8.8%15.4%7.3%
3M Rtn-15.5%-5.7%-14.9%13.6%8.2%6.1%0.2%
6M Rtn-10.9%1.9%-8.6%16.0%-8.7%7.7%-3.3%
12M Rtn-0.8%6.1%-24.0%29.7%10.9%8.8%7.4%
3Y Rtn-18.3%49.0%79.1%58.8%12.7%30.8%39.9%
1M Excs Rtn-0.4%11.4%5.1%21.4%14.4%20.9%12.9%
3M Excs Rtn-12.5%-2.6%-10.6%14.6%12.1%7.7%2.6%
6M Excs Rtn-10.4%2.4%-8.1%16.5%-8.2%8.2%-2.8%
12M Excs Rtn-11.3%-2.9%-33.7%19.7%3.3%-1.3%-2.1%
3Y Excs Rtn-75.0%-15.1%2.4%-11.7%-59.9%-30.1%-22.6%

Comparison Analyses

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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Real estate segment1,6621,5091,437  
Deferred development lot sales   270
Residential lot sales   1,4561,293
Tract sales and other   3733
Total1,6621,5091,4371,5191,326


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20212020201820172016
Real estate segment2,1021,740522386403
Items Not Allocated to Segments  369372280
Other  2312
Discontinued operations    0
Mineral Resources    39
Total2,1021,740893762733


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$24.10 
Market Cap ($ Bil)1.2 
First Trading Date12/13/2007 
Distance from 52W High-24.6% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$25.95$27.37
DMA Trenddownindeterminate
Distance from DMA-7.1%-11.9%
 3M1YR
Volatility32.7%34.1%
Downside Capture126.0194.92
Upside Capture37.1580.56
Correlation (S&P 500)33.8%32.2%
FOR Betas & Captures as of 10/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta0.680.871.050.720.820.93
Up Beta-4.550.050.49-0.080.650.90
Down Beta0.501.151.010.750.880.65
Up Capture42%34%75%67%66%90%
Bmk +ve Days12182862130427
Stock +ve Days8142661120360
Down Capture142%154%169%116%99%106%
Bmk -ve Days10253664121325
Stock -ve Days14293865130389

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with FOR
FOR-1.6%34.1%-0.01-
Sector ETF (XLRE)12.6%14.7%0.5742.8%
Equity (SPY)13.3%13.7%0.6532.0%
Gold (GLD)3.7%28.8%0.1214.6%
Commodities (DBC)38.2%21.3%1.42-33.8%
Real Estate (VNQ)13.7%14.3%0.6545.6%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-25.3%43.6%-0.554.9%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with FOR
FOR4.4%37.9%0.20-
Sector ETF (XLRE)1.8%19.2%-0.0146.1%
Equity (SPY)11.8%17.3%0.5144.3%
Gold (GLD)17.8%19.1%0.758.4%
Commodities (DBC)8.0%19.6%0.29-2.5%
Real Estate (VNQ)1.5%18.9%-0.0349.4%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)4.4%51.6%0.2718.5%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with FOR
FOR8.7%37.7%0.33-
Sector ETF (XLRE)7.4%20.4%0.3145.9%
Equity (SPY)15.3%18.0%0.7247.5%
Gold (GLD)12.1%16.5%0.607.9%
Commodities (DBC)7.6%18.1%0.3311.7%
Real Estate (VNQ)6.1%20.7%0.2549.3%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)60.0%66.3%1.0014.7%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10152026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1.0 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 930202610.5%
Average Daily Volume0.2 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.0 days
Basic Shares Quantity51.1 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares2.0%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 11/9/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/29/2026-4.4%-2.3% 
7/21/20261.4%8.6%8.8%
4/21/20262.2%5.0%-2.7%
1/20/2026-1.2%-3.8%14.0%
10/28/2025-3.2%-9.9%-7.8%
7/22/20257.7%5.3%13.2%
4/17/2025-2.5%3.8%5.0%
1/21/2025-0.7%-1.1%-5.1%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive131613
# Negative12911
Median Positive3.1%4.5%11.5%
Median Negative-1.7%-2.6%-5.4%
Max Positive10.5%15.1%21.1%
Max Negative-10.3%-14.1%-15.5%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/29/2026-4.4%-2.3% 
7/21/20261.4%8.6%8.8%
4/21/20262.2%5.0%-2.7%
1/20/2026-1.2%-3.8%14.0%
10/28/2025-3.2%-9.9%-7.8%
7/22/20257.7%5.3%13.2%
4/17/2025-2.5%3.8%5.0%
1/21/2025-0.7%-1.1%-5.1%
10/29/20241.1%0.8%-5.4%
7/18/2024-1.9%-0.8%-6.2%
4/18/20241.0%0.0%11.7%
1/23/2024-2.1%-2.1%-0.2%
11/7/2023-0.7%4.0%4.0%
7/20/20237.0%15.1%13.4%
4/20/20231.4%8.6%20.9%
1/24/2023-1.2%-2.6%-7.7%
11/9/20226.4%10.4%21.1%
7/19/2022-10.3%-14.1%-15.5%
4/21/2022-0.5%0.1%-3.1%
1/27/202210.5%12.2%1.9%
11/4/20212.8%4.0%2.5%
7/20/20216.9%6.1%1.7%
4/20/20213.1%3.7%-6.5%
1/21/2021-1.6%-3.2%-3.9%
11/5/20204.0%0.9%11.5%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive131613
# Negative12911
Median Positive3.1%4.5%11.5%
Median Negative-1.7%-2.6%-5.4%
Max Positive10.5%15.1%21.1%
Max Negative-10.3%-14.1%-15.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
06/30/202607/22/202610-Q
03/31/202604/23/202610-Q
12/31/202501/22/202610-Q
09/30/202511/19/202510-K
06/30/202507/23/202510-Q
03/31/202504/22/202510-Q
12/31/202401/23/202510-Q
09/30/202411/19/202410-K
06/30/202407/22/202410-Q
03/31/202404/23/202410-Q
12/31/202301/24/202410-Q
09/30/202311/17/202310-K
06/30/202307/21/202310-Q
03/31/202304/24/202310-Q
12/31/202201/25/202310-Q
09/30/202211/17/202210-K
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
06/30/202607/22/202610-Q
03/31/202604/23/202610-Q
12/31/202501/22/202610-Q
09/30/202511/19/202510-K
06/30/202507/23/202510-Q
03/31/202504/22/202510-Q
12/31/202401/23/202510-Q
09/30/202411/19/202410-K
06/30/202407/22/202410-Q
03/31/202404/23/202410-Q
12/31/202301/24/202410-Q
09/30/202311/17/202310-K
06/30/202307/21/202310-Q
03/31/202304/24/202310-Q
12/31/202201/25/202310-Q
09/30/202211/17/202210-K
06/30/202207/20/202210-Q
03/31/202204/22/202210-Q
12/31/202101/28/202210-Q
09/30/202111/18/202110-K
06/30/202107/23/202110-Q
03/31/202104/23/202110-Q
12/31/202001/27/202110-Q
09/30/202011/19/202010-K
06/30/202007/29/202010-Q
03/31/202004/29/202010-Q
12/31/201901/28/202010-Q
09/30/201911/21/201910-K

Recent Forward Guidance

Updated 11/2/2026

Latest: Q4 2026 Earnings Reported 10/29/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2027 Residential Lots DeliveredReported120001250013000-12.3% Lower NewGuidance: 14250 for 2026
2027 RevenueReported1.40 Bil1.45 Bil1.50 Bil-12.1% Lower NewGuidance: 1.65 Bil for 2026


Prior: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 7/21/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Lot DeliveriesReported1400014250145000 AffirmedGuidance: 14250 for 2026
2026 RevenueReported1.60 Bil1.65 Bil1.70 Bil0 AffirmedGuidance: 1.65 Bil for 2026

Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 4/21/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Lot DeliveriesReported140001425014500-1.7% LoweredGuidance: 14500 for 2026
2026 RevenueReported1.60 Bil1.65 Bil1.70 Bil0 AffirmedGuidance: 1.65 Bil for 2026

Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 1/20/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Lots DeliveredReported1400014500150000 AffirmedGuidance: 14500 for 2026
2026 RevenueReported1.60 Bil1.65 Bil1.70 Bil0 AffirmedGuidance: 1.65 Bil for 2026

Insider Activity

Updated 11/6/2026
Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Jamieson, Lisa H DirectSell1106202624.773,00074,310572,311Form
2Jamieson, Lisa H DirectSell819202629.253,00087,750675,880Form
3Parmer, Elizabeth DirectSell603202627.442,53569,560101,885Form
Collapse to Preview
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Jamieson, Lisa H DirectSell1106202624.773,00074,310572,311Form
2Jamieson, Lisa H DirectSell819202629.253,00087,750675,880Form
3Parmer, Elizabeth DirectSell603202627.442,53569,560101,885Form

Investor Activity (13F)

Updated Nov 10, 2026
13F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)

Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.

Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Woodson Capital Management, LP$10.6 Mil1.7%28Hold13F
Active Manager
Active Manager
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Woodson Capital Management, LP$10.6 Mil1.7%28Hold13F
Core Cache Last Updated: 11/9/2026