Jefferson Capital (JCAP)
Market Price (12/25/2025): $22.915 | Market Cap: $1.3 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Consumer Finance
Jefferson Capital (JCAP)
Market Price (12/25/2025): $22.915Market Cap: $1.3 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Consumer Finance
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 15%, Dividend Yield is 4.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 11%, FCF Yield is 20% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 86% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 47%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46% | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 2520% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Credit. | Key risksJCAP key risks include [1] a dependency on its ability to profitably acquire and collect on nonperforming loan portfolios, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 15%, Dividend Yield is 4.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 11%, FCF Yield is 20% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 47%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Credit. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 86% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 2520% |
| Key risksJCAP key risks include [1] a dependency on its ability to profitably acquire and collect on nonperforming loan portfolios, Show more. |
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Strong Q3 2025 Financial Performance: Jefferson Capital reported robust financial results for the third quarter of 2025, which ended in September. The company saw a 63% year-over-year increase in collections and a 36% rise in revenue, reaching $150.8 million. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.74 surpassed analyst expectations of $0.64.2. Favorable Macroeconomic Conditions for Debt Collection: The company benefited from an environment of increasing consumer credit delinquencies and insolvencies. Rising delinquency rates across various consumer credit categories, an increase in bankruptcy filings, and a decline in personal savings created a "fertile environment" for Jefferson Capital's business model.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 33.8% change in JCAP stock from 9/24/2025 to 12/24/2025 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| 9242025 | 12242025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 17.07 | 22.83 | 33.77% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | � | � |
| Net Income Margin (%) | � | � | � |
| P/E Multiple | � | � | � |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 58.27 | 58.27 | 0.00% |
| Cumulative Contribution | � |
Market Drivers
9/24/2025 to 12/24/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| JCAP | 33.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.4% | 42.2% |
| Sector (XLF) | 4.0% | 22.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
6/25/2025 to 12/24/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| JCAP | ||
| Market (SPY) | 14.0% | 40.1% |
| Sector (XLF) | 8.8% | 23.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
12/24/2024 to 12/24/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| JCAP | ||
| Market (SPY) | 15.8% | 40.1% |
| Sector (XLF) | 14.9% | 23.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
12/25/2023 to 12/24/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| JCAP | ||
| Market (SPY) | 48.9% | 40.1% |
| Sector (XLF) | 53.2% | 23.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| JCAP Return | � | � | � | � | � | � | � |
| Peers Return | 14% | 59% | -23% | 17% | 2% | 9% | 81% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 18% | 115% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| JCAP Win Rate | � | � | � | � | � | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 73% | 38% | 55% | 43% | 55% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| JCAP Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | � | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -51% | -10% | -35% | -26% | -19% | -26% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ECPG, PRAA, NAVI, SLM, OMF.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/24/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
JCAP has limited trading history. Below is the Financials sector ETF (XLF) in its place.
| Event | XLF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 525 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -43.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 76.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 295 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -26.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 338 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -83.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 515.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 4,470 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -26.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/12/2022. A -26.9% loss requires a 36.7% gain to breakeven.
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AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Jefferson Capital (JCAP):
Imagine it as the "Carvana for charged-off consumer debt," buying up loans that banks and lenders have given up on and trying to recover value.
Think of JCAP as a financial "salvage yard" for consumer loans that major banks like Bank of America have deemed worthless and written off.
It's like the "Waste Management Inc." for banks' bad debts, acquiring and processing the financial "waste" that other lenders want to get rid of.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Purchasing Charged-Off Consumer Debt: Jefferson Capital acquires portfolios of delinquent and defaulted consumer debt from banks, credit card companies, and other financial institutions.
- Debt Management and Collection: The company actively manages and collects on the acquired debt portfolios through internal operations and partnerships with third-party collection agencies.
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Jefferson Capital (JCAP) - Major Customers
Jefferson Capital (JCAP) primarily sells to individual consumers. As a leading purchaser, owner, and servicer of charged-off consumer receivables, JCAP's "customers" are the individuals who owe these defaulted debts, and with whom the company works to resolve their financial obligations. Based on the types of receivables they acquire, the categories of individual customers they serve include:
- Individuals with charged-off credit card debt: Consumers who have defaulted on their credit card obligations, which JCAP has acquired from original credit card issuers.
- Individuals with charged-off installment loan debt: This includes consumers who have defaulted on personal loans, unsecured lines of credit, or deficiency balances from auto loans.
- Individuals with charged-off retail credit debt: Consumers with defaulted balances from store credit cards or other financing extended by retailers that have been acquired by JCAP.
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David Burton Chief Executive Officer
David Burton has over 30 years of experience in the accounts receivable management industry and founded Jefferson Capital in 2002. Before establishing Jefferson Capital, he was Group President of OSI Education Services, Inc., a subsidiary of Outsourcing Solutions, Inc. (OSI), from 1996 to 2002. He entered the accounts receivable industry in 1992, joining A.M. Miller & Associates, Inc., where he eventually became President and Chief Operating Officer from 1992 to 1996.
Christo Realov Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer
Christo Realov has served as Chief Financial Officer since December 2024. He joined Jefferson Capital in 2021 as Senior Vice President of Corporate Development and Treasurer. Prior to Jefferson Capital, Mr. Realov worked in various capacities within Citigroup's Global Financial Institutions group from 2004 to 2020 or 2021, most recently as Director.
Mark Zellmann President of U.S. Business Lines
Mark Zellmann joined Jefferson Capital in 2004 and currently leads its U.S. Business Lines, which include Debt Collections Acquisitions and Servicing, Bankruptcy, and Payment Rewards businesses. His responsibilities encompass the oversight of Underwriting, Portfolio Management, Data Sciences and Analytics, Collections Operations, and Information Technology. He previously led the U.S. Distressed Underwriting team since 2012, before being promoted to President of U.S. Business Lines in 2022.
Matthew Pfohl Chief Administrative Officer, General Counsel and Secretary
Matthew Pfohl joined Jefferson Capital in 2015 and brings over 30 years of legal experience. Before his tenure at Jefferson Capital, he was Vice President, Compliance and General Counsel at Interstate Auto Group Inc. from 2012 to 2015. From 2005 to 2012, he worked as a civil litigator at Olson, Redford & Wahlberg, P.A., and from 2000 to 2005, he served as General Counsel and Director of Legal Services at AmericInn International. His career also includes several years as a criminal prosecutor and civil litigator.
Penelope Person Chief Commercial Officer
Penelope Person serves as the Chief Commercial Officer for Jefferson Capital.
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Key Risks to Jefferson Capital (JCAP)
- Economic Deterioration and Inflation: A significant risk to Jefferson Capital's business is a downturn in the economic or inflationary environment in the countries where it operates. Such conditions could adversely affect the company's ability to collect on its purchased debt portfolios, directly impacting its financial performance and results of operations.
- Ability to Acquire and Collect on Nonperforming Loans: Jefferson Capital's business model is dependent on its capacity to continually acquire nonperforming loans at favorable prices and effectively collect on those assets. There is a risk that the company may not be able to consistently replace its portfolios with sufficient additional nonperforming loans or that it may not be able to collect adequate amounts to fund its operations and maintain profitability.
- Regulatory and Compliance Challenges: The debt collection industry is subject to complex and evolving laws and regulations at federal, state, and international levels, including those concerning data privacy and consumer protection (such as the Fair Debt Collection Practices Act - FDCPA, and the Telephone Consumer Protection Act - TCPA). Non-compliance with these regulations could lead to increased operational costs, legal challenges, and damage to the company's reputation.
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The increasing adoption of advanced artificial intelligence and data analytics by original creditors (banks, credit card companies, and other lenders). This technology enables creditors to more accurately assess credit risk, proactively intervene with struggling borrowers to prevent defaults, and more efficiently manage and rehabilitate non-performing loans internally. As creditors improve their ability to retain and recover on troubled debt, the volume and attractiveness of charged-off consumer debt portfolios available for purchase by companies like Jefferson Capital could diminish, impacting their core acquisition strategy.
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Jefferson Capital (JCAP) operates primarily in the market of purchasing and servicing consumer charged-off and bankruptcy accounts, which falls under the broader "Debt Collection Services" industry. The company acquires and manages various types of consumer debts, including those from unsecured credit cards, auto loans, utility bills, telecommunications, installment loans, and student loans. Jefferson Capital's operations span the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, and Latin America.
The addressable markets for Jefferson Capital's main products and services are as follows:
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Global Debt Collection Services Market: The global debt collection services market size is projected to be USD 30,524.6 million in 2025 and is expected to expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.00% from 2025 to 2033. Another estimate places the global market at USD 30.19 billion in 2025, growing from $29.35 billion in 2024 at a CAGR of 2.9%, and further expanding to $34.31 billion by 2029 at a CAGR of 3.3%. More recent data from October 2025 projects the global debt collection services market size at USD 30,614.71 million in 2024, expected to reach USD 41,430.52 million by 2033 with a CAGR of 2.7%.
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North America Debt Collection Services Market: North America is a significant region in this market, holding more than 40% of the global revenue. The market size for debt collection services in North America is estimated at USD 12,209.84 million in 2025 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 1.2% from 2025 to 2033.
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United States Debt Collection Agencies Market: The U.S. debt collection services market size is USD 9,633.56 million in 2025, with a projected CAGR of 1.0% during the forecast period. Separately, the Debt Collection Agencies industry in the United States, after experiencing a decline at a CAGR of 2.6% between 2020 and 2025, is estimated to have a market size of $16.4 billion in 2025 with an estimated 2.3% boost, and is expected to accelerate at a CAGR of 2.1% to an estimated $18.3 billion by the end of 2030.
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Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Jefferson Capital (JCAP) over the next 2-3 years:
- Strategic Acquisitions of High-Value Portfolios: Jefferson Capital's business model revolves around acquiring charged-off, insolvency, and active consumer accounts. The company has demonstrated a strategic focus on high-value portfolio purchases, as evidenced by its Q2 2025 performance, where collections surged partly due to a major one-time portfolio acquisition, and a recent announcement of acquiring a credit card portfolio with a face value of $488 million. The firm anticipates a continued strong portfolio supply and elevated deployment opportunities, particularly in the fourth quarter, which will directly fuel revenue growth through increased collections.
- Expansion in Existing and New Geographic Markets: Jefferson Capital currently operates in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, and Latin America. The company's corporate profile highlights its growing client base across these regions, including Fortune 500 creditors, banks, fintech origination platforms, telecommunications providers, credit card issuers, and auto finance companies. Continued penetration and expansion within these existing international markets, along with potential entry into new geographies, will broaden its addressable market and contribute to revenue growth.
- Leveraging Proprietary Technological Capabilities for Enhanced Collections: The company emphasizes its analytically driven approach and proprietary technological capabilities in the collection process. By continuously improving its collection efficiency and effectiveness through technology, Jefferson Capital can maximize the returns on its purchased portfolios, thereby increasing revenue. The company reported a sector-leading cash efficiency ratio of 75.9% in Q2 2025, suggesting that its operational effectiveness is a significant contributor to its financial performance.
- Growth in Servicing Revenue: Beyond purchasing portfolios, Jefferson Capital also generates revenue from servicing accounts that it does not own. As the company expands its client base and potentially secures more servicing contracts with Fortune 500 creditors, banks, and other financial institutions, its servicing revenue stream is expected to grow. This diversification of revenue sources provides an additional avenue for future growth.
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Share Repurchases
- Information regarding dollar amounts of share repurchases made or authorized in the future for Jefferson Capital (JCAP) over the last 3-5 years is not explicitly available in the provided public search results. The company has expressed an intent to potentially repurchase shares, subject to capital availability and board determinations.
Share Issuance
- Jefferson Capital completed its Initial Public Offering (IPO) on June 26, 2025.
- The IPO aimed to raise up to $100 million.
- Following the IPO, the company's market capitalization increased from $972.20 million to $1.13 billion.
Outbound Investments
- In October 2025, Jefferson Capital announced an agreement to acquire a credit card portfolio with a face value of $488 million.
Capital Expenditures
- In the last 12 months (ending approximately Q3 2025), Jefferson Capital reported $6.42 million in capital expenditures.
- Prior to its IPO in June 2025, the company's capital spending history was characterized as very little in proportion to its operating cash flow.
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to JCAP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
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| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 7.6% | 7.6% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -11.2% | -11.2% | -12.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
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Peer Comparisons for Jefferson Capital
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 25.24 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.3 |
| Rev LTM | 1,367 |
| Op Inc LTM | 209 |
| FCF LTM | 198 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 115 |
| CFO LTM | 215 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 167 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 18.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 28.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 17.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 24.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 23.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.5% |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/13/2025 | 6.6% | 1.0% | 7.6% |
| 8/14/2025 | -1.3% | -5.1% | -4.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| # Negative | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Median Positive | 6.6% | 1.0% | 7.6% |
| Median Negative | -1.3% | -5.1% | -4.7% |
| Max Positive | 6.6% | 1.0% | 7.6% |
| Max Negative | -1.3% | -5.1% | -4.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11142025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8142025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 12312024 | 6272025 | 424B4 12/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2052025 | DRS/A 12/31/2023 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | J.C. Flowers IV L.P. | 7012025 | Sell | 15.00 | 2,687,631 | 40,314,465 | 202,392,840 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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