Tearsheet

Jefferson Capital (JCAP)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $21.06 | Market Cap: $53.9 Mil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Consumer Finance

Jefferson Capital (JCAP)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $21.06
Market Cap: $53.9 Mil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Consumer Finance

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 414%, Dividend Yield is 69%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 410%, FCF Yield is 450%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 2401%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42%
Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 23%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Credit.
 
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 414%, Dividend Yield is 69%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 410%, FCF Yield is 450%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Credit.
3 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 2401%
4 Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 23%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

JCAP Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points explaining Jefferson Capital's (JCAP) stock movement for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025: 1. Strong Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Report. Although announced slightly before the specified period on August 14, 2025, Jefferson Capital reported robust second-quarter results with collections growing by 85% to $255.7 million, revenue increasing by 47% to $152.7 million, and pre-tax income surging by 82% to $62.0 million. These strong financial indicators likely established a positive sentiment that carried into the period.

2. Nasdaq Opening Bell Ceremony. On October 9, 2025, Jefferson Capital commemorated its listing as a public company by ringing the Nasdaq Opening Bell. This event likely enhanced the company's public profile and investor awareness, contributing to positive market perception.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
JCAP Return------ 
Peers Return1%28%-29%33%27%24%92%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
JCAP Win Rate-----50% 
Peers Win Rate57%50%28%40%45%50% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
JCAP Max Drawdown------ 
Peers Max Drawdown-30%-5%-34%-15%-15%-23% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PRAA, SUIG, AXP, COF, SOFI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

JCAP has limited trading history. Below is the Financials sector ETF (XLF) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLFS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-26.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven36.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven525 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-43.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven76.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven295 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-26.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven35.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven338 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-83.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven515.2%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven4470 days1480 days

Compare to


In The Past

SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -26.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/12/2022. A -26.9% loss requires a 36.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Jefferson Capital (JCAP)

Better Bets than Jefferson Capital (JCAP)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to JCAP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Jefferson Capital

Peers to compare with:

Financials

JCAPPRAASUIGAXPCOFSOFIMedian
NameJefferso.PRA Sui American.Capital .SoFi Tec. 
Mkt Price21.0717.092.02368.13227.2429.0725.07
Mkt Cap0.10.7-254.7145.234.034.0
Rev LTM5111,142470,42848,2313,3222,232
Op Inc LTM197207----202
FCF LTM213-62618,94420,845-3,179109
FCF 3Y Avg--69-016,90421,063-4,671-0
CFO LTM214-58621,13922,335-2,951110
CFO 3Y Avg--65-018,80122,259-4,506-0

Growth & Margins

JCAPPRAASUIGAXPCOFSOFIMedian
NameJefferso.PRA Sui American.Capital .SoFi Tec. 
Rev Chg LTM-15.8%76.6%9.1%25.4%34.0%25.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-5.2%0.3%11.6%13.4%33.4%11.6%
Rev Chg Q-1.4%250.4%10.8%54.4%38.6%38.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.4%49.0%2.6%12.7%8.8%8.8%
Op Mgn LTM38.6%18.1%----28.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-10.4%----10.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM--0.8%-----0.8%
CFO/Rev LTM41.8%-5.0%158.3%30.0%46.3%-88.8%35.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg--6.4%-15.0%29.2%55.1%-204.8%-6.4%
FCF/Rev LTM41.6%-5.4%158.3%26.9%43.2%-95.7%34.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg--6.9%-15.0%26.3%52.2%-211.1%-6.9%

Valuation

JCAPPRAASUIGAXPCOFSOFIMedian
NameJefferso.PRA Sui American.Capital .SoFi Tec. 
Mkt Cap0.10.7-254.7145.234.034.0
P/S0.10.5-3.32.89.32.8
P/EBIT0.22.5----1.4
P/E0.36.3-21.896.048.321.8
P/CFO0.2-10.1-10.96.1-10.50.2
Total Yield414.5%15.8%-4.6%2.0%2.1%4.6%
Dividend Yield68.6%0.0%-0.0%0.9%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg--9.7%-10.7%36.3%-50.4%0.5%
D/E25.16.3-0.30.40.10.4
Net D/E24.05.9-0.0-0.1-0.10.0

Returns

JCAPPRAASUIGAXPCOFSOFIMedian
NameJefferso.PRA Sui American.Capital .SoFi Tec. 
1M Rtn11.0%16.7%-29.1%1.8%2.9%-5.1%2.3%
3M Rtn10.9%1.2%-67.1%14.0%3.1%18.7%7.0%
6M Rtn-18.8%-25.0%18.6%116.0%21.9%
12M Rtn--16.6%-23.2%23.0%83.1%23.1%
3Y Rtn--50.5%-143.8%145.0%518.5%144.4%
1M Excs Rtn11.1%16.7%-29.1%1.8%2.9%-5.1%2.4%
3M Excs Rtn9.0%-4.6%-72.5%6.3%-4.6%9.2%0.9%
6M Excs Rtn-4.0%-10.3%3.9%101.3%7.2%
12M Excs Rtn--32.9%-8.6%6.3%63.6%7.4%
3Y Excs Rtn--121.8%-80.5%67.6%480.5%74.0%

Financials

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity587,853
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202516.0%
Average Daily Volume149,935
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.92
Basic Shares Quantity2,561,000
Short % of Basic Shares23.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025814202510-Q 6/30/2025
123120246272025424B4 12/31/2024
123120232052025DRS/A 12/31/2023

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0J.C. Flowers IV L.P. 7012025Sell15.002,687,63140,314,465202,392,840Form