Tearsheet

ARMOUR Residential REIT (ARR)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $17.52 | Market Cap: $1.8 Bil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Mortgage REITs

ARMOUR Residential REIT (ARR)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $17.52
Market Cap: $1.8 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Mortgage REITs

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 19%, Dividend Yield is 15%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 15%, FCF Yield is 11%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 21x
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 245%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 245%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -13%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -70%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -50%
2 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -93%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 10%
 
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 24%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Residential Real Estate Finance. Themes include Mortgage-Backed Securities, Interest Rate Sensitivity, and Residential Housing Market Trends.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 19%, Dividend Yield is 15%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 15%, FCF Yield is 11%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 245%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 245%
2 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -93%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 24%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Residential Real Estate Finance. Themes include Mortgage-Backed Securities, Interest Rate Sensitivity, and Residential Housing Market Trends.
5 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%
6 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -13%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -70%
7 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 10%
8 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 21x
9 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -50%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

ARR Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

I cannot fulfill this request. The specified time period, from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, is in the future. As an AI, I do not have access to future stock market data or news.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
ARR Return-33%1%-32%-15%13%8%-53%
Peers Return-14%10%-19%2%6%2%-15%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ARR Win Rate67%58%42%42%75%40% 
Peers Win Rate53%57%50%45%55%56% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ARR Max Drawdown-64%-4%-48%-43%-5%-22% 
Peers Max Drawdown-64%-6%-34%-22%-11%-21% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DX, IVR, RC, LOAN, NLY.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventARRS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-78.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven356.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-70.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven237.0%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-40.2%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven67.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-26.3%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven35.6%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days1480 days

Compare to DX, IVR, RC, LOAN, NLY


In The Past

ARMOUR Residential REIT's stock fell -78.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/30/2021. A -78.1% loss requires a 356.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About ARMOUR Residential REIT (ARR)

Better Bets than ARMOUR Residential REIT (ARR)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to ARR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for ARMOUR Residential REIT

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ARRDXIVRRCLOANNLYMedian
NameARMOUR R.Dynex Ca.Invesco .Ready Ca.Manhatta.Annaly C. 
Mkt Price17.5213.898.192.784.7322.8211.04
Mkt Cap1.81.90.60.50.115.01.2
Rev LTM73230722271,70373
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM17912215947251,953169
FCF 3Y Avg1977119632951,260196
CFO LTM17912215947252,857169
CFO 3Y Avg1977119632951,976196

Growth & Margins

ARRDXIVRRCLOANNLYMedian
NameARMOUR R.Dynex Ca.Invesco .Ready Ca.Manhatta.Annaly C. 
Rev Chg LTM-49.9%87.1%-29.9%-73.3%-3.5%473.5%-16.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg73.0%63.4%241.0%-52.8%2.5%143.3%68.2%
Rev Chg Q142.2%309.0%27.8%-29.1%-9.2%637.1%85.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM442.0%113.8%21.1%-45.4%-2.2%81.6%51.4%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM245.1%52.8%220.1%2,181.7%71.0%167.8%193.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-77.6%790.7%851.6%70.9%-434.2%
FCF/Rev LTM245.1%52.8%220.1%2,181.7%71.0%114.7%167.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-77.6%790.7%851.6%70.8%-434.2%

Valuation

ARRDXIVRRCLOANNLYMedian
NameARMOUR R.Dynex Ca.Invesco .Ready Ca.Manhatta.Annaly C. 
Mkt Cap1.81.90.60.50.115.01.2
P/S21.37.37.129.38.87.88.3
P/EBIT-------
P/E24.19.09.6-2.011.98.99.3
P/CFO8.713.73.21.312.44.66.7
Total Yield19.1%11.1%10.4%-27.7%16.8%11.3%11.2%
Dividend Yield15.0%0.0%0.0%21.4%8.4%0.0%4.2%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg17.2%6.8%40.1%36.2%8.5%11.4%14.3%
D/E0.00.00.06.00.22.20.1
Net D/E-0.0-0.3-0.15.70.22.20.1

Returns

ARRDXIVRRCLOANNLYMedian
NameARMOUR R.Dynex Ca.Invesco .Ready Ca.Manhatta.Annaly C. 
1M Rtn8.8%5.9%8.6%-4.1%-4.8%7.1%6.5%
3M Rtn19.2%14.6%8.1%-32.2%-10.4%9.9%9.0%
6M Rtn16.4%24.9%19.5%-29.7%-3.4%29.0%18.0%
12M Rtn9.0%30.4%19.1%-56.6%-6.1%33.1%14.1%
3Y Rtn1.0%60.5%3.7%-68.6%5.7%58.4%4.7%
1M Excs Rtn8.8%6.0%8.7%-4.1%-4.8%7.2%6.6%
3M Excs Rtn12.0%7.8%2.0%-38.0%-15.6%3.0%2.5%
6M Excs Rtn1.6%10.1%4.8%-44.5%-18.1%14.3%3.2%
12M Excs Rtn-3.5%15.8%4.5%-70.9%-17.7%18.2%0.5%
3Y Excs Rtn-69.9%-8.7%-65.4%-141.0%-64.9%-8.9%-65.1%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment-63-22219-22-217
Total-63-22219-22-217


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity10,648,721
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202514.2%
Average Daily Volume2,820,684
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.78
Basic Shares Quantity104,318,000
Short % of Basic Shares10.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251022202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025723202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025423202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024212202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241023202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024724202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024425202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023315202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231025202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023726202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023426202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022215202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221026202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022727202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022427202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021216202210-K 12/31/2021