Tearsheet

Ibotta (IBTA)


Market Price (12/8/2025): $23.29 | Market Cap: $652.0 Mil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software

Ibotta (IBTA)


Market Price (12/8/2025): $23.29
Market Cap: $652.0 Mil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Application Software

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.2%, FCF Yield is 9.8%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -16%
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -30%
 
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%
 
3 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -37%
 
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital Advertising, Fintech & Digital Payments, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, Show more.
 
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.2%, FCF Yield is 9.8%
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -30%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%
3 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -37%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital Advertising, Fintech & Digital Payments, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, Show more.
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -16%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

IBTA Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Ibotta (IBTA) experienced a notable decline in its stock price around November 2025, with shares falling significantly following its third-quarter 2025 earnings report. The key factors contributing to this movement, which included a 16% drop in after-hours trading, are as follows: 1. Disappointing Third Quarter 2025 Earnings and Revenue: The company reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.56, falling short of analyst expectations of $0.77. Additionally, total revenue for the third quarter declined by 16% year-over-year, reaching $83.3 million.

2. Weak Fourth Quarter 2025 Guidance: Ibotta's outlook for the fourth quarter of 2025 projected revenue to further decrease by 16%, with a midpoint estimate of $82.5 million, which was below the consensus estimate of $84.3 million. The adjusted EBITDA guidance for Q4 2025 also indicated a substantial year-over-year decline of over 62%.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
IBTA Return------63%-63%
Peers Return13%-2%-7%5%55%897%1587%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
IBTA Win Rate----25%60% 
Peers Win Rate13%10%9%30%44%36% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
IBTA Max Drawdown------66% 
Peers Max Drawdown-5%-4%-8%-15%-8%-51% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ADSK, HIT, BMR, BTTC, CCC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/5/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

IBTA has limited trading history. Below is the Information Technology sector ETF (XLK) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLKS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-34.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven51.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven278 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-31.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven46.0%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven79 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-24.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven31.8%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven105 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-53.6%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven115.3%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1183 days1480 days

Compare to


In The Past

SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -34.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/27/2021. A -34.0% loss requires a 51.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Ibotta (IBTA)

Better Bets than Ibotta (IBTA)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to IBTA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
8.3%8.3%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
5.5%5.5%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.7%14.7%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
6.9%6.9%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.0%9.0%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
8.3%8.3%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
5.5%5.5%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.7%14.7%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
6.9%6.9%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.0%9.0%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Ibotta

Peers to compare with:

Financials

IBTAADSKHITBMRBTTCCCCMedian
NameIbotta Autodesk Health I.Beamr Im.Black Ti.CCC Inte. 
Mkt Price23.25306.741.142.283.187.425.30
Mkt Cap0.765.30.1-0.0-0.4
Rev LTM3526,88831-21,026352
Op Inc LTM141,6441--06514
FCF LTM642,083-1--255160
FCF 3Y Avg-1,690---216953
CFO LTM892,1552--310200
CFO 3Y Avg-1,765---2711,018

Growth & Margins

IBTAADSKHITBMRBTTCCCCMedian
NameIbotta Autodesk Health I.Beamr Im.Black Ti.CCC Inte. 
Rev Chg LTM-4.4%15.6%55.1%--10.6%13.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-12.1%---10.2%11.2%
Rev Chg Q-15.6%18.0%90.4%--12.0%15.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-4.2%4.3%15.1%--2.9%3.6%
Op Mgn LTM3.9%23.9%4.5%--3.8%6.3%4.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-22.0%---6.9%14.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-4.8%0.9%-0.5%---0.1%-0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM25.4%31.3%7.0%--30.2%27.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-29.1%---29.0%29.1%
FCF/Rev LTM18.1%30.2%-2.6%--24.9%21.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-27.9%---23.1%25.5%

Valuation

IBTAADSKHITBMRBTTCCCCMedian
NameIbotta Autodesk Health I.Beamr Im.Black Ti.CCC Inte. 
Mkt Cap0.765.30.1-0.0-0.4
P/S1.89.52.1-12.8-5.8
P/EBIT47.342.432.1-737.8-44.8
P/E8.158.844.8--4,265.3-26.4
P/CFO7.330.329.9---29.9
Total Yield12.4%1.7%2.2%--0.0%-2.0%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%-0.0%-0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-3.0%----3.0%
D/E0.00.00.0-0.0-0.0
Net D/E-0.30.0-0.1--0.0--0.1

Returns

IBTAADSKHITBMRBTTCCCCMedian
NameIbotta Autodesk Health I.Beamr Im.Black Ti.CCC Inte. 
1M Rtn-17.6%3.2%-60.8%4.1%-2.5%-2.6%-2.5%
3M Rtn-15.5%-6.0%-58.2%-15.2%-20.5%-65.5%-18.0%
6M Rtn-52.9%3.0%81.0%-26.5%-20.5%-65.5%-23.5%
12M Rtn-69.5%-0.3%--38.9%4,442.9%-65.5%-38.9%
3Y Rtn-56.0%--3,144.9%-65.5%56.0%
1M Excs Rtn-23.1%0.8%-61.1%-5.3%-3.5%-6.4%-5.9%
3M Excs Rtn-24.7%-11.9%-63.7%-21.3%-26.3%-71.3%-25.5%
6M Excs Rtn-67.4%-11.5%66.5%-41.0%-35.0%-80.0%-38.0%
12M Excs Rtn-81.6%-11.0%--39.1%4,429.3%-79.1%-39.1%
3Y Excs Rtn--16.5%--3,060.0%-133.9%-16.5%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,487,488
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-6.3%
Average Daily Volume549,536
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.53
Basic Shares Quantity27,995,708
Short % of Basic Shares8.9%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/12/2025-23.7%-25.6% 
8/13/2025-30.3%-19.0%-21.4%
5/14/202520.2%5.5%-16.9%
2/26/2025-46.1%-44.5%-29.6%
11/13/2024-12.5%-15.3%-1.7%
8/13/2024-26.7%-12.6%-3.5%
5/30/2024-7.3%-25.8%-31.6%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive110
# Negative667
Median Positive20.2%5.5% 
Median Negative-25.2%-22.3%-19.2%
Max Positive20.2%5.5% 
Max Negative-46.1%-44.5%-31.6%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251113202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025813202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025515202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024227202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241114202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024814202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024531202410-Q 3/31/2024
123120234182024424B4 12/31/2023