Ibotta (IBTA)
Market Price (3/15/2026): $23.39 | Market Cap: $613.8 MilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
Ibotta (IBTA)
Market Price (3/15/2026): $23.39Market Cap: $613.8 MilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -26% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -110%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -147% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -0.8 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.2% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 172x |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 9.9% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -10% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Advertising, Fintech & Digital Payments, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, Show more. | Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.4% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -26% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 9.9% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Advertising, Fintech & Digital Payments, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -110%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -147% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -0.8 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.2% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 172x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -10% |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.4% |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Mixed Fourth Quarter 2025 Financial Results Presented a Balanced Outlook.
Ibotta's Q4 2025 earnings, reported on February 25, 2026, showcased a mixed financial picture that likely contributed to the stock remaining largely at the same level. While the company's total revenue of $88.5 million exceeded analyst estimates of $83.14 million, it represented a 10% year-over-year decline. Additionally, adjusted EBITDA of $13.7 million surpassed analyst expectations of $11.36 million. However, the GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.04 significantly missed analyst estimates of -$0.01 or -$0.02. This combination of beating on some metrics while missing on others, particularly a negative EPS, created a balanced sentiment among investors, preventing a significant upward or downward swing.
2. Persistent Revenue Decline and Cautious Growth Projections.
A core reason for the stock's stagnant performance stems from Ibotta's declining revenue trends and conservative future guidance. The full-year 2025 revenue decreased by 7% year-over-year to $342.4 million, and the Q4 2025 revenue itself was down 10% year-over-year. Furthermore, the company's revenue guidance for Q1 2026 projects a 5% year-over-year decline at the midpoint to $80 million. Analysts anticipate revenue to decline by 6.2% over the next 12 months, signaling ongoing concerns about the company's near-term growth trajectory. Despite a 19% year-over-year increase in redeemers within the Ibotta Performance Network (IPN) to 20.4 million in Q4 2025, driven by partnerships with DoorDash and Instacart, these positive developments were offset by the broader revenue deceleration.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -1.8% change in IBTA stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/14/2026 was primarily driven by a -95.4% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3142026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 23.86 | 23.42 | -1.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 352 | 342 | -2.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 22.9% | 1.0% | -95.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 8.3 | 171.9 | 1978.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 28 | 26 | 6.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -1.8% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| IBTA | -1.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | -3.1% | 4.0% |
| Sector (XLK) | -4.4% | 4.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -13.1% change in IBTA stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/14/2026 was primarily driven by a -96.0% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3142026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 26.94 | 23.42 | -13.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 368 | 342 | -6.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 26.2% | 1.0% | -96.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 8.0 | 171.9 | 2061.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 28 | 26 | 8.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -13.1% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| IBTA | -13.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.0% | 20.0% |
| Sector (XLK) | 4.4% | 16.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -29.9% change in IBTA stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/14/2026 was primarily driven by a -94.4% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3142026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 33.39 | 23.42 | -29.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 367 | 342 | -6.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 18.7% | 1.0% | -94.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 14.9 | 171.9 | 1050.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 31 | 26 | 17.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -29.9% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| IBTA | -29.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.4% | 22.4% |
| Sector (XLK) | 21.9% | 19.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| IBTA | ||
| Market (SPY) | 73.4% | 25.7% |
| Sector (XLK) | 104.5% | 23.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| IBTA Return | - | - | - | -37% | -65% | -4% | -79% |
| Peers Return | -38% | -63% | 61% | 31% | -26% | -23% | -73% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -1% | 80% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| IBTA Win Rate | - | - | - | 22% | 50% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 35% | 32% | 60% | 52% | 42% | 27% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| IBTA Max Drawdown | - | - | - | -59% | -68% | -15% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -55% | -72% | -29% | -33% | -49% | -33% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -2% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: GRPN, CDLX, TTD, RAMP, DSP.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/13/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
IBTA has limited trading history. Below is the Information Technology sector ETF (XLK) in its place.
| Event | XLK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -34.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 278 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -31.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 79 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -24.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 105 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -53.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 115.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,183 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to GRPN, CDLX, TTD, RAMP, DSP
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -34.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/27/2021. A -34.0% loss requires a 51.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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About Ibotta (IBTA)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Ibotta is like Rakuten, but specifically for item-level cash back on groceries and everyday products, often powering the loyalty programs of major retailers like Walmart.
Alternatively, think of Ibotta as a Google Ads for CPG brands, but instead of clicks, brands pay only when consumers redeem a digital coupon and purchase a specific product, with offers distributed across a network including Walmart's app.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Ibotta (IBTA) provides the following major services:
- Ibotta Performance Network (IPN): A platform enabling CPG brands to create and distribute success-based digital item-level promotions across a vast network of retailer loyalty programs and Ibotta's consumer-facing properties.
- AI-Powered Promotional Analytics & Data Insights: Provides CPG brands with AI-driven tools for personalized offer targeting, campaign management, performance tracking, and aggregated consumer purchase data licensing.
- Ibotta Direct-to-Consumer (D2C) Channels: Consumer-facing mobile app, website, and browser extension offering cash back rewards, which also function as an advertising platform for CPG brands and online retailers.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Ibotta (IBTA) sells primarily to other companies (B2B).
Its major customers are:
- CPG Brands: A vast number of individual Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) brands serve as direct clients, making up over 850 different companies representing more than 2,400 distinct CPG brands as of December 31, 2023. These brands are the primary source of Ibotta's redemption revenue, paying for success-based digital promotions and also purchasing advertising products on Ibotta's platforms.
- Retailers: Several major retailers are strategic partners and customers, integrating Ibotta's offers into their loyalty programs, serving as publishers, and also purchasing advertising products and data licenses from Ibotta. Specific named retailer customers and partners include:
- Walmart Inc. (WMT)
- Dollar General Corporation (DG)
- Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) (as the parent company of Family Dollar, a partner)
- Kroger (KR)
- Shell plc (SHEL)
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nullLatest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Ibotta Stock Pre-Market (+20%) : Q4 Revenue Beat & Stronger Q1 Guidance | 02/26/2026 | |
| Would You Still Hold Ibotta Stock If It Fell Another 30%? | 10/17/2025 | |
| IBTA Dip Buy Analysis | 07/10/2025 | |
| Ibotta (IBTA) Valuation Ratios Comparison | 05/15/2025 | |
| Ibotta (IBTA) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | 02/17/2025 | |
| Ibotta (IBTA) Net Income Comparison | 02/15/2025 | |
| Ibotta (IBTA) Operating Income Comparison | 02/15/2025 | |
| Ibotta (IBTA) Revenue Comparison | 02/13/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Ibotta Stock Pre-Market (+20%) : Q4 Revenue Beat & Stronger Q1 Guidance | 02/26/2026 | |
| Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | 11/25/2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to IBTA.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02282026 | BMI | Badger Meter | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02282026 | VRNS | Varonis Systems | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | ITRI | Itron | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | FSLR | First Solar | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | PEGA | Pegasystems | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 17.87 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.5 |
| Rev LTM | 419 |
| Op Inc LTM | 7 |
| FCF LTM | 61 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 42 |
| CFO LTM | 85 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 59 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 1.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 0.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 18.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 15.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.5 |
| P/S | 1.3 |
| P/EBIT | 10.9 |
| P/E | 27.7 |
| P/CFO | 6.0 |
| Total Yield | 0.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.3% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 9.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -16.4% |
| 6M Rtn | -25.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -36.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | -8.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 8.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -16.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -29.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -58.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -85.5% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $23.42 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.7 | |
| First Trading Date | 04/18/2024 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -61.1% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $22.28 | $29.20 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | 5.1% | -19.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 76.6% | 70.8% |
| Downside Capture | -4.30 | 126.06 |
| Upside Capture | 53.21 | 52.73 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 5.0% | 23.5% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.87 | 0.90 | 0.77 | 1.50 | 0.87 | 0.18 |
| Up Beta | 2.99 | 3.10 | 2.99 | 1.63 | 0.98 | -0.09 |
| Down Beta | 3.51 | 0.31 | 0.43 | 3.04 | 0.64 | -0.40 |
| Up Capture | 297% | 119% | 57% | 64% | 55% | 19% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 18 | 26 | 61 | 126 | 227 |
| Down Capture | -41% | 22% | 32% | 105% | 110% | 106% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 35 | 62 | 123 | 237 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with IBTA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBTA | -43.6% | 71.0% | -0.50 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 30.0% | 26.8% | 0.95 | 20.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 19.6% | 18.9% | 0.81 | 23.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 71.9% | 26.3% | 2.05 | 2.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 19.3% | 17.3% | 0.89 | 3.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.2% | 16.3% | 0.19 | 26.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -15.3% | 44.2% | -0.25 | 20.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with IBTA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBTA | -25.5% | 75.6% | -0.66 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 17.7% | 24.7% | 0.64 | 23.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.1% | 17.0% | 0.61 | 25.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.1% | 17.3% | 1.14 | 10.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.2% | 19.0% | 0.47 | 8.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 18.8% | 0.16 | 20.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 6.3% | 56.7% | 0.33 | 18.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with IBTA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBTA | -13.7% | 75.6% | -0.66 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 21.8% | 24.2% | 0.82 | 23.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.5% | 17.9% | 0.70 | 25.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.4% | 15.6% | 0.77 | 10.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.6% | 17.6% | 0.40 | 8.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 20.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.4% | 66.8% | 1.07 | 18.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/25/2026 | 28.5% | 17.0% | |
| 11/12/2025 | -23.7% | -25.6% | -35.8% |
| 8/13/2025 | -30.3% | -19.0% | -21.4% |
| 5/14/2025 | 20.2% | 5.5% | -16.9% |
| 2/26/2025 | -46.1% | -44.5% | -29.6% |
| 11/13/2024 | -12.5% | -15.3% | -1.7% |
| 8/13/2024 | -26.7% | -12.6% | -3.5% |
| 5/30/2024 | -7.3% | -25.8% | -31.6% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| # Negative | 6 | 6 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 24.4% | 11.2% | |
| Median Negative | -25.2% | -22.3% | -21.4% |
| Max Positive | 28.5% | 17.0% | |
| Max Negative | -46.1% | -44.5% | -35.8% |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clark, Jermoluk Founders Fund I Llc | See footnote | Sell | 12182025 | 88.00 | 11,363 | 999,944 | 48,999,984 | Form | |
| 2 | Daspit, Marisa | CHIEF PEOPLE OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 12092025 | 23.54 | 10 | 235 | 1,129,520 | Form |
| 3 | Daspit, Marisa | CHIEF PEOPLE OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 9092025 | 26.94 | 2,956 | 79,635 | 1,404,436 | Form |
| 4 | Clark, Jermoluk Founders Fund I Llc | Direct | Sell | 6302025 | 35.00 | 1,578,502 | 55,247,570 | 134,445,780 | Form | |
| 5 | Clark, Jermoluk Founders Fund I Llc | See footnote | Sell | 6302025 | 35.02 | 423,878 | 14,843,610 | 397,916 | Form |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
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