Cardlytics (CDLX)
Market Price (11/4/2026): $2.05 | Market Cap: $12.1 MilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Advertising
Cardlytics (CDLX)
Market Price (11/4/2026): $2.05Market Cap: $12.1 MilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Advertising
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -46% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Advertising, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, and Online Banking & Lending. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -124%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -181% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -28 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -15% Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 1351% Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -30%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -14%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -36% Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.1% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -843% Key risksCDLX key risks include [1] an over-dependency on a limited number of financial institution partners, Show more. |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -46% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Advertising, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, and Online Banking & Lending. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -124%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -181% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -28 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -15% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 1351% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -30%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -14%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -36% |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.1% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -843% |
| Key risksCDLX key risks include [1] an over-dependency on a limited number of financial institution partners, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Cardlytics (CDLX) stock has lost about 45% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Weak Fiscal Q2 2026 Performance and Conservative Fiscal Q3 2026 Guidance.
Cardlytics reported a significant decline in its fiscal Q2 2026 results, with revenue falling 36% year-over-year to $36.9 million and billings decreasing 34% year-over-year to $65.5 million. The company's net loss widened to $14.9 million compared to $9.3 million in the prior year period. Following these results, Cardlytics issued fiscal Q3 2026 revenue guidance of $34 million to $39 million, which indicates a continued year-over-year decline when compared to the $52.03 million revenue reported in fiscal Q3 2025. This outlook suggested to investors that the challenges impacting performance were expected to persist.
2. Impact of Major U.S. Financial Institution Partner Exit.
A core reason for the revenue and billings decline in fiscal Q2 2026 was explicitly attributed to the exit of a major U.S. financial institution (FI) partner. This loss of a significant partner directly impacted Cardlytics' operational performance and its ability to generate revenue, contributing heavily to the negative year-over-year comparisons and the cautious guidance for fiscal Q3 2026.
Show more
Cardlytics (CDLX) stock has lost about 45% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Weak Fiscal Q2 2026 Performance and Conservative Fiscal Q3 2026 Guidance.
Cardlytics reported a significant decline in its fiscal Q2 2026 results, with revenue falling 36% year-over-year to $36.9 million and billings decreasing 34% year-over-year to $65.5 million. The company's net loss widened to $14.9 million compared to $9.3 million in the prior year period. Following these results, Cardlytics issued fiscal Q3 2026 revenue guidance of $34 million to $39 million, which indicates a continued year-over-year decline when compared to the $52.03 million revenue reported in fiscal Q3 2025. This outlook suggested to investors that the challenges impacting performance were expected to persist.
2. Impact of Major U.S. Financial Institution Partner Exit.
A core reason for the revenue and billings decline in fiscal Q2 2026 was explicitly attributed to the exit of a major U.S. financial institution (FI) partner. This loss of a significant partner directly impacted Cardlytics' operational performance and its ability to generate revenue, contributing heavily to the negative year-over-year comparisons and the cautious guidance for fiscal Q3 2026.
3. Concerns Regarding Financial Stability and Debt Load.
Investors displayed concerns over Cardlytics' financial health, highlighted by its cash and cash equivalents of $28.0 million at the end of fiscal Q2 2026 (June 30, 2026) against a substantial $169.4 million in convertible senior notes. This imbalance between available cash and significant debt obligations likely fueled anxieties about the company's balance sheet, particularly in the context of declining revenues and widening losses.
4. Removal from S&P Global BMI Index.
On September 20, 2026, Cardlytics was dropped from the S&P Global BMI Index. This event can lead to selling pressure on a stock as index-tracking funds are often required to divest shares of companies removed from their benchmark indices, thereby creating additional downward pressure on the stock price.
Show less
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -44.5% change in CDLX stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/2/2026 was primarily driven by a -34.9% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 11022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 3.74 | 2.08 | -44.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 200 | 179 | -10.6% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.1 | 0.1 | -34.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 5 | 6 | -4.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -44.5% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 11/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CDLX | -44.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.7% | -2.3% |
| Sector (XLC) | -7.4% | 10.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -76.9% change in CDLX stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/2/2026 was primarily driven by a -69.6% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 11022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 8.97 | 2.08 | -76.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 223 | 179 | -19.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.2 | 0.1 | -69.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 5 | 6 | -5.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -76.9% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 11/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CDLX | -76.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.9% | 7.1% |
| Sector (XLC) | -13.7% | 15.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -89.3% change in CDLX stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/2/2026 was primarily driven by a -83.4% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 11022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 19.40 | 2.08 | -89.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 256 | 179 | -29.8% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.4 | 0.1 | -83.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 5 | 6 | -8.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -89.3% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 11/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CDLX | -89.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.2% | 22.4% |
| Sector (XLC) | -11.9% | 20.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -98.3% change in CDLX stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/2/2026 was primarily driven by a -95.4% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312023 | 11022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 123.90 | 2.08 | -98.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 296 | 179 | -39.5% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.5 | 0.1 | -95.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 3 | 6 | -39.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -98.3% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 11/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CDLX | -98.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 86.0% | 22.5% |
| Sector (XLC) | 59.8% | 20.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CDLX Return | -54% | -91% | 59% | -60% | -69% | -82% | -100% |
| Peers Return | -3% | -66% | 128% | 29% | -6% | -8% | -16% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 101% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CDLX Win Rate | 25% | 25% | 50% | 33% | 25% | 27% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 28% | 63% | 48% | 53% | 45% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 36% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CDLX Max Drawdown | -60% | -95% | -71% | -85% | -77% | -89% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -43% | -73% | -38% | -35% | -48% | -44% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: PYPL, AFRM, SHOP, TTD, RAMP. See CDLX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/2/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CDLX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -60.7% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 154.7% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 106 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -28.7% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.3% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 4 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -59.2% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 145.0% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 16 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -71.4% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 249.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 232 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -54.6% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 120.5% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 158 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Cardlytics's stock fell -60.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 154.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | CDLX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -60.7% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 154.7% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 106 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -28.7% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.3% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 4 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -59.2% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 145.0% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 16 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -71.4% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 249.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 232 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -54.6% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 120.5% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 158 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Cardlytics's stock fell -60.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 154.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Cardlytics (CDLX)
Cardlytics (CDLX) operates a unique advertising platform that facilitates connections between marketers and consumers through partnerships with financial institutions. Its core offering is the Cardlytics platform, a proprietary native bank advertising channel. This platform enables marketers to deliver targeted offers and advertisements directly to bank customers via the digital channels of their financial institution partners, including online banking, mobile applications, emails, and real-time notifications.
The company also provides the Bridg platform, which functions as a customer data platform (CDP). Bridg leverages point-of-sale transaction data, empowering marketers with advanced analytics capabilities. This allows them to execute highly targeted loyalty marketing campaigns and precisely measure the impact and effectiveness of their advertising efforts.
Cardlytics primarily serves marketers seeking efficient ways to reach relevant audiences with actionable offers, as well as financial institutions looking to enhance customer engagement and derive value from their digital platforms. The company conducts its operations and provides its services across both the United States and the United Kingdom.
```AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-2 brief analogies to describe Cardlytics (CDLX):
- It's like Google Ads for your bank account, showing you personalized cash-back offers based on your spending.
- Think of it as a highly personalized Rakuten (cash-back site) that's built directly into your bank's app and tailored to your spending habits.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Cardlytics Platform: A proprietary native bank advertising channel enabling marketers to reach customers through financial institution partners via digital channels.
- Bridg Platform: A customer data platform that utilizes point-of-sale data for analytics, targeted loyalty marketing, and measuring marketing campaign impact.
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Bank of America (BAC)
- JPMorgan Chase (JPM)
- Wells Fargo (WFC)
- Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Amit Gupta, Chief Executive Officer
Amit Gupta was appointed Chief Executive Officer of Cardlytics, effective August 16, 2024, and also joined the Board of Directors. He initially joined Cardlytics in January 2023 as Chief Operating Officer and General Manager of Bridg. Prior to Cardlytics, Mr. Gupta held leadership roles in global partnerships and banking products at Stripe from January 2021 to January 2023. Before Stripe, he worked at Google in the Geo division from 2018 to December 2021, where he was responsible for product and engineering execution and strategy for Google Maps, Local Search, Food, Maps Enterprise Platform, and Google SMBs. Notably, Mr. Gupta also founded and served as CEO of a series of startups between 2010 and 2017. He began his career in the tech practice at Booz Allen Hamilton, where he became a partner.
David T. Evans, Chief Financial Officer
David T. Evans was appointed Chief Financial Officer of Cardlytics, effective January 12, 2026. He previously served as Cardlytics' CFO before transitioning to Chief Administrative Officer in March 2020.
Nick Lynton, Chief Legal and Privacy Officer
Nick Lynton serves as the Chief Legal and Privacy Officer at Cardlytics.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key risks to Cardlytics (CDLX):
- Reliance on and Risk of Losing Key Financial Institution Partners or Facing Content Restrictions: Cardlytics' business model is highly dependent on its relationships with a few major financial institution (FI) partners, such as Chase, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo. The loss of a significant FI partner or the imposition of content restrictions by a large partner can severely impact the company's revenue and ability to reach customers. For instance, the company recently experienced a decrease in revenue and billings due to content restrictions from one of its largest FI partners and the departure of Bank of America. This directly affects Cardlytics' top line and necessitates significant business model adjustments.
- Continued Financial Instability and Unprofitability: Cardlytics has faced significant financial challenges, characterized by a declining revenue trend over the past three years and persistent net losses. The company reported a 16.2% decline in total revenue during 2025. Operating and net margins are negative, and a projected Adjusted EBITDA loss is anticipated for Q1 2026, indicating ongoing profitability issues. Despite restructuring efforts and a workforce reduction aimed at achieving positive Adjusted EBITDA and self-sustainability, the company's financial health remains a significant concern. An Altman Z-Score of -6.79 places Cardlytics in a "distress zone".
- Intense Competition within the Evolving Digital Advertising Market: Cardlytics operates in a rapidly changing digital advertising landscape where it faces strong competitive pressures from larger, more established players. While the company's first-party data strategy could be an advantage in an increasingly privacy-conscious environment, it must continuously innovate and adapt to market trends to maintain relevance. Challenges such as declining Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) and advertiser hesitancy underscore the competitive pressures within the industry.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The potential entry of large technology companies, such as Apple, into the native bank advertising space by forming direct partnerships with financial institutions to leverage transaction data for advertising and analytics. Reports indicate Apple has been exploring deals with banks to share transaction data for advertising, which would directly compete with Cardlytics' core business model of enabling marketers to reach bank customers through bank digital channels using transaction data.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Cardlytics Platform (Card-Linked Offers and Native Bank Advertising)
Cardlytics' core offering is its card-linked offer (CLO) network, which functions as a native bank advertising channel.- Global Card-Linked Offers (CLO) Market: The global Card-Linked Offers market size reached an estimated USD 3.98 billion in 2024. It is projected to grow to USD 18.29 billion by 2033, at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 19.1% from 2025 to 2033. Similarly, the global Card-Linked Offers Platform market size was USD 2.31 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 7.14 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of 14.8% from 2025 to 2033.
- North America (U.S.) Card-Linked Offers Market: North America currently holds the largest share of the global Card-Linked Offers market. The United States, in particular, has seen widespread adoption due to its mature payments infrastructure and high penetration of credit and debit cards.
- United Kingdom Card-Linked Offers Market: In the United Kingdom, card-linked offers are recognized as a significant emerging opportunity within the affiliate marketing channel. This channel accounted for £1.7 billion in affiliate spending in 2025, demonstrating a 9% year-over-year growth.
- Global Native Advertising Market (Broader Context): As Cardlytics' platform delivers advertising natively within banking channels, the broader native advertising market provides context for its addressable market. The global native advertising market was valued at approximately USD 104.63 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 346.86 billion by 2032, expanding at a CAGR of 16.2% from 2025-2032.
- U.S. Native Advertising Market: The U.S. native advertising market, a significant component of the global market, was valued at USD 29.22 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 90.56 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 17.54% from 2025 to 2032. North America dominated the global native advertising market, holding the largest revenue share in 2024.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Cardlytics (NASDAQ: CDLX) anticipates several key drivers to fuel its revenue growth over the next two to three years, even as the company navigates a period of strategic transition and near-term headwinds. These drivers focus on expanding its platform, enhancing advertiser value, and growing in key markets.
-
Expansion and Deepening of Financial Institution (FI) Partnerships and Integration of New Publishers: Cardlytics aims to grow its reach by strengthening existing collaborations with bank partners and integrating new publishers into its network. This strategy is crucial for expanding the supply side of its advertising platform. The company's focus is on developing a more favorable mix of FI partners.
-
Continued Growth in the U.K. Market: The U.K. segment has shown robust performance, with revenue increasing significantly in Q4 2025. Management expects this momentum to continue, driven by deeper engagement with existing advertisers, the acquisition of new clients, and attracting new advertisers to the platform in the U.K.
-
Enhancing Advertiser Value Through Advanced Technology, New Offerings, and Strategic Pricing: Cardlytics plans to drive increased advertiser spend by leveraging its advanced algorithmic capabilities to deliver more effective campaigns. This includes ongoing investments in its technology stack to differentiate its platform and improve operational efficiency, as well as introducing new offerings and engagement formats to boost program awareness and redemption. The company is also making strategic pricing decisions to encourage incremental advertiser spend.
-
Acquisition of New Advertisers and Expansion into New Business Sectors: The company reported a substantial increase in new business wins across various sectors, including e-commerce, retail, and restaurants, in Q4 2025. Cardlytics expects to maintain this positive trend and sees further growth opportunities by expanding into new business sectors like fashion and luxury, capitalizing on its omnichannel capabilities and enhanced targeting features.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- Cardlytics' Board of Directors approved a share repurchase program of up to $40.0 million of its Common Stock on May 10, 2022. The program was expected to continue through the end of the 2022 fiscal year unless extended or shortened.
Share Issuance
- The weighted-average common shares outstanding increased from 48.4 million in 2024 to 53.1 million in 2025.
- In the fourth quarter of 2025, weighted-average common shares outstanding were 54.3 million, compared to 51.0 million in the fourth quarter of 2024.
- Cardlytics granted 350,000 restricted stock units (RSUs) to its newly hired Chief Operating Officer, Amit Gupta, on January 23, 2023, as an inducement to employment.
- On June 23, 2025, the company granted 40,000 restricted stock units (RSUs) and 15,000 performance stock units (PSUs) to its Chief Financial Officer, Alexis DeSieno.
Outbound Investments
- Cardlytics initiated the sale of its Bridg assets in January 2026, as part of a strategy to refocus on core assets and monetize non-core businesses.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for the full year 2025 were $480K.
- In the fourth quarter of 2025, capital expenditures amounted to $25K, focused on funding long-term assets and infrastructure.
Peer Outperformance in Advertising
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wireless Telecommunication Services | 3 | -17.7% | 14.2% | 45.5% | ECHO 292% · TMUS 45% |
| Publishing | 5 | 24.2% | 8.3% | 16.5% | NYT 32% · NWSA 32% |
| Integrated Telecommunication Services | 21 | -12.4% | -5.2% | -28.9% | GSAT 229% · AD 132% · TDS 114% |
| Movies & Entertainment | 23 | 10.6% | 42.4% | -31.3% | IMAX 153% · CNK 91% · BATRA 81% |
| Alternative Carriers | 4 | -33.6% | 11.2% | -68.0% | IRDM 13% · LUMN -57% |
| Interactive Home Entertainment | 8 | -43.6% | -34.4% | -69.0% | TTWO 4% · RBLX -46% · PINS -54% |
| Advertising ← | 18 | -28.6% | -8.0% | -70.3% | APP 132% · OMC 48% · STGW 24% |
| Interactive Media & Services | 32 | -38.2% | -32.6% | -71.6% | GOOGL 94% · META 87% · CARG -2% |
| Broadcasting | 14 | -5.7% | -27.3% | -71.9% | FOXA 61% · NXST 31% · SIRI -48% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 58.71 |
| Mkt Cap | 24.5 |
| Rev LTM | 4,261 |
| Op Inc LTM | 871 |
| FCF LTM | 993 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 692 |
| CFO LTM | 1,231 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 853 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 11.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 20.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.7% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 45.9% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 62.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 18.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 14.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 20.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 18.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 24.5 |
| P/S | 2.0 |
| P/Op Inc | 10.1 |
| P/EBIT | 9.9 |
| P/E | 12.7 |
| P/CFO | 19.9 |
| Total Yield | 6.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.0% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $2.08 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.0 | |
| First Trading Date | 02/09/2018 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -89.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $2.98 | $6.14 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -30.4% | -66.2% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 91.3% | 94.6% |
| Downside Capture | 204.10 | 348.95 |
| Upside Capture | -205.65 | 42.71 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | -8.7% | 22.3% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -1.73 | -0.88 | 0.10 | 0.63 | 1.72 | 2.03 |
| Up Beta | 13.19 | 3.47 | 1.86 | 2.47 | 2.43 | 1.82 |
| Down Beta | -5.26 | -3.46 | -3.08 | -0.96 | 0.59 | 1.93 |
| Up Capture | -466% | -284% | -107% | -87% | 19% | 114% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 7 | 12 | 24 | 48 | 101 | 326 |
| Down Capture | 234% | 269% | 260% | 219% | 180% | 113% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 15 | 30 | 37 | 75 | 144 | 410 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CDLX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CDLX | -89.2% | 94.6% | -1.90 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | -11.5% | 16.3% | -0.94 | 20.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.6% | 12.8% | 0.57 | 22.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | -2.3% | 28.6% | -0.09 | 5.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 43.1% | 20.9% | 1.60 | -12.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.0% | 13.7% | 0.50 | 17.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -28.8% | 43.6% | -0.66 | 20.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CDLX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CDLX | -70.0% | 132.5% | -0.29 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 5.5% | 21.0% | 0.18 | 31.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.0% | 17.1% | 0.52 | 31.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 16.5% | 19.0% | 0.69 | 4.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.4% | 19.6% | 0.31 | 3.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.1% | 18.9% | -0.05 | 29.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.1% | 51.6% | 0.26 | 15.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CDLX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CDLX | -34.1% | 113.5% | 0.11 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 8.1% | 22.1% | 0.40 | 32.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.2% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 32.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.6% | 16.5% | 0.57 | 4.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.8% | 18.1% | 0.34 | 8.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 29.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 61.7% | 66.3% | 1.01 | 11.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 9/11/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/5/2026 | -13.9% | 2.7% | -11.0% |
| 5/7/2026 | -18.1% | -17.3% | -33.5% |
| 3/4/2026 | -9.4% | -21.9% | 25.6% |
| 11/5/2025 | -28.4% | -14.8% | -37.5% |
| 8/6/2025 | -26.1% | -25.6% | -47.0% |
| 5/7/2025 | -12.0% | -4.6% | -17.1% |
| 3/12/2025 | 4.5% | 15.2% | -29.3% |
| 11/6/2024 | -21.9% | -25.9% | -24.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 7 | 5 |
| # Negative | 16 | 17 | 19 |
| Median Positive | 8.9% | 15.2% | 42.7% |
| Median Negative | -24.0% | -25.6% | -29.3% |
| Max Positive | 77.2% | 86.2% | 60.5% |
| Max Negative | -57.1% | -57.7% | -54.1% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/5/2026 | -13.9% | 2.7% | -11.0% |
| 5/7/2026 | -18.1% | -17.3% | -33.5% |
| 3/4/2026 | -9.4% | -21.9% | 25.6% |
| 11/5/2025 | -28.4% | -14.8% | -37.5% |
| 8/6/2025 | -26.1% | -25.6% | -47.0% |
| 5/7/2025 | -12.0% | -4.6% | -17.1% |
| 3/12/2025 | 4.5% | 15.2% | -29.3% |
| 11/6/2024 | -21.9% | -25.9% | -24.2% |
| 8/7/2024 | -57.1% | -46.5% | -50.3% |
| 5/8/2024 | -36.5% | -35.8% | -40.3% |
| 3/14/2024 | 77.2% | 86.2% | 60.5% |
| 11/8/2023 | -54.4% | -42.4% | -38.5% |
| 8/1/2023 | 19.8% | 25.2% | 42.7% |
| 5/4/2023 | -27.3% | -28.1% | -33.5% |
| 3/1/2023 | -8.6% | -14.5% | -44.2% |
| 11/1/2022 | -53.4% | -57.7% | -54.1% |
| 8/2/2022 | 6.8% | 0.2% | -12.1% |
| 5/2/2022 | 4.9% | -20.9% | -27.8% |
| 3/1/2022 | 14.0% | -3.6% | 5.5% |
| 11/2/2021 | 11.0% | 11.6% | -17.2% |
| 8/3/2021 | -27.6% | -27.7% | -18.6% |
| 5/4/2021 | -17.0% | -25.9% | -20.7% |
| 3/1/2021 | 6.7% | -3.3% | -17.4% |
| 11/2/2020 | -0.6% | 32.3% | 51.1% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 7 | 5 |
| # Negative | 16 | 17 | 19 |
| Median Positive | 8.9% | 15.2% | 42.7% |
| Median Negative | -24.0% | -25.6% | -29.3% |
| Max Positive | 77.2% | 86.2% | 60.5% |
| Max Negative | -57.1% | -57.7% | -54.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/04/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/12/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/14/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/01/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/04/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/12/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/14/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/01/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/01/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/02/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/03/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 03/01/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/02/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/04/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/11/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 03/03/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/12/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 11/2/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Billings | Reported | 61.00 Mil | 64.00 Mil | 67.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 64.00 Mil for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Adjusted Contribution | Reported | 20.00 Mil | 21.50 Mil | 23.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 21.50 Mil for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Revenue | Reported | 34.00 Mil | 36.50 Mil | 39.00 Mil | -2.7% | Lowered | Guidance: 37.50 Mil for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 0 | 1.50 Mil | 3.00 Mil | Raised | Guidance: -0.70 Mil for Q2 2026 | ||
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/7/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Billings | Reported | 61.00 Mil | 64.00 Mil | 67.00 Mil | 5.8% | Higher New | Guidance: 60.50 Mil for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Adjusted Contribution | Reported | 20.00 Mil | 21.50 Mil | 23.00 Mil | 0 | Same New | Guidance: 21.50 Mil for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Revenue | Reported | 35.00 Mil | 37.50 Mil | 40.00 Mil | 0 | Same New | Guidance: 37.50 Mil for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | -2.70 Mil | -0.70 Mil | 1.30 Mil | -87.3% | Higher New | Guidance: -5.50 Mil for Q1 2026 | |
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/4/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Billings | Reported | 57.50 Mil | 60.50 Mil | 63.50 Mil | -33.5% | Lower New | Guidance: 91.00 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Adjusted Contribution | Reported | 20.00 Mil | 21.50 Mil | 23.00 Mil | -32.8% | Lower New | Guidance: 32.00 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Revenue | Reported | 35.00 Mil | 37.50 Mil | 40.00 Mil | -31.9% | Lower New | Guidance: 55.10 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | -7.50 Mil | -5.50 Mil | -3.50 Mil | -225.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 4.40 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/5/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Billings | Reported | 86.00 Mil | 91.00 Mil | 96.00 Mil | 0 | Same New | Guidance: 91.00 Mil for Q3 2025 | |
| Q4 2025 Adjusted Contribution | Reported | 29.00 Mil | 32.00 Mil | 35.00 Mil | -0.9% | Lower New | Guidance: 32.30 Mil for Q3 2025 | |
| Q4 2025 Revenue | Reported | 51.10 Mil | 55.10 Mil | 59.10 Mil | -0.2% | Lower New | Guidance: 55.20 Mil for Q3 2025 | |
| Q4 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 0.90 Mil | 4.40 Mil | 7.90 Mil | 21 | Higher New | Guidance: 0.20 Mil for Q3 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 10/2/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gupta, Amit | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 10022026 | 2.53 | 7,382 | 18,699 | 351,849 | Form |
| 2 | Gupta, Amit | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 10022026 | 2.71 | 10,351 | 28,051 | 396,440 | Form |
| 3 | Gupta, Amit | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 8182026 | 4.03 | 6,676 | 26,911 | 505,443 | Form |
| 4 | Gupta, Amit | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 8182026 | 3.97 | 6,785 | 26,909 | 523,770 | Form |
| 5 | Gupta, Amit | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 7062026 | 4.39 | 9,640 | 42,358 | 500,257 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gupta, Amit | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 10022026 | 2.53 | 7,382 | 18,699 | 351,849 | Form |
| 2 | Gupta, Amit | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 10022026 | 2.71 | 10,351 | 28,051 | 396,440 | Form |
| 3 | Gupta, Amit | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 8182026 | 4.03 | 6,676 | 26,911 | 505,443 | Form |
| 4 | Gupta, Amit | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 8182026 | 3.97 | 6,785 | 26,909 | 523,770 | Form |
| 5 | Gupta, Amit | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 7062026 | 4.39 | 9,640 | 42,358 | 500,257 | Form |
| 6 | Gupta, Amit | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 7062026 | 4.39 | 6,498 | 28,559 | 542,739 | Form |
| 7 | Lynton, Nicholas Hollmeyer | Chief Legal & Privacy Officer | Direct | Sell | 7062026 | 4.39 | 2,151 | 9,454 | 85,056 | Form |
| 8 | Evans, David Thomas | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Buy | 5192026 | 0.63 | 50,000 | 31,650 | 201,250 | Form |
| 9 | Evans, David Thomas | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Buy | 5192026 | 0.65 | 150,000 | 97,350 | 173,887 | Form |
| 10 | Gupta, Amit | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 4062026 | 1.19 | 69,833 | 82,892 | 1,172,028 | Form |
| 11 | Gupta, Amit | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 4022026 | 1.04 | 54,225 | 56,502 | 1,101,623 | Form |
| 12 | Gupta, Amit | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 4022026 | 0.99 | 62,549 | 61,924 | 1,100,331 | Form |
| 13 | Lynton, Nicholas Hollmeyer | Chief Legal & Privacy Officer | Direct | Sell | 4022026 | 0.99 | 40,296 | 39,893 | 166,177 | Form |
| 14 | Gupta, Amit | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 2182026 | 0.93 | 45,159 | 41,817 | 610,830 | Form |
| 15 | Gupta, Amit | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 2182026 | 0.90 | 52,049 | 46,948 | 635,732 | Form |
| 16 | Lynton, Nicholas Hollmeyer | Chief Legal & Privacy Officer | Direct | Sell | 1052026 | 1.17 | 6,253 | 7,316 | 143,749 | Form |
| 17 | Gupta, Amit | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 1052026 | 1.17 | 5,807 | 6,794 | 593,017 | Form |
| 18 | Desieno, Alexis | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 1052026 | 1.17 | 8,607 | 10,070 | 235,356 | Form |
| 19 | Lynton, Nicholas Hollmeyer | Chief Legal & Privacy Officer | Direct | Sell | 10022025 | 2.27 | 6,098 | 13,849 | 264,179 | Form |
| 20 | Gupta, Amit | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 10022025 | 2.27 | 7,799 | 17,712 | 1,131,662 | Form |
| 21 | Desieno, Alexis | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 10022025 | 2.27 | 8,493 | 19,288 | 443,792 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Nov 4, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager |
|---|
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.