Middlesex Water (MSEX)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $51.12 | Market Cap: $926.4 MilSector: Utilities | Industry: Water Utilities
Middlesex Water (MSEX)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $51.12Market Cap: $926.4 MilSector: UtilitiesIndustry: Water Utilities
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.9%, Dividend Yield is 2.5% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -66%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -114% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.8% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34% | Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -16% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Water Infrastructure. Themes include Water Treatment & Delivery, and Wastewater Management. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.9%, Dividend Yield is 2.5% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Water Infrastructure. Themes include Water Treatment & Delivery, and Wastewater Management. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -66%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -114% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.8% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -16% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MSEX Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Q3 2025 Earnings Miss: Middlesex Water reported its third-quarter 2025 diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.77 on October 31, 2025, missing the consensus estimate of $0.86. The company also reported quarterly revenue of $54.09 million, which was below the consensus estimate of $56.08 million.
2. Immediate Stock Price Decline Post-Earnings: The disappointing third-quarter results led to immediate pressure on Middlesex Water's share price, which reportedly slid more than 13% in a single day.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MSEX Return | 16% | 69% | -34% | -15% | -18% | -1% | -11% |
| Peers Return | 1% | 20% | -1% | 18% | -8% | 10% | 41% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MSEX Win Rate | 67% | 67% | 42% | 42% | 42% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 63% | 48% | 52% | 42% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MSEX Max Drawdown | -22% | -7% | -37% | -21% | -30% | -8% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -26% | -10% | -27% | -20% | -17% | -8% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CWT, CWCO, AWK, WTRG, AWR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MSEX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -48.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 95.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -28.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 79 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -25.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 161 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -41.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 71.4% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1579 days | 1480 days |
Compare to CWT, CWCO, AWK, WTRG, AWR
In The Past
Middlesex Water's stock fell -48.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/31/2021. A -48.7% loss requires a 95.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MSEX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | PEG | Public Service Enterprise | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.7% |
| 09262025 | PCG | PG&E | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.5% | 2.5% | 0.0% |
| 09052025 | AES | AES | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.3% | 9.3% | -3.2% |
| 09302021 | MSEX | Middlesex Water | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 3.2% | -23.8% | -23.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | PEG | Public Service Enterprise | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.7% |
| 09262025 | PCG | PG&E | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.5% | 2.5% | 0.0% |
| 09052025 | AES | AES | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.3% | 9.3% | -3.2% |
| 09302021 | MSEX | Middlesex Water | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 3.2% | -23.8% | -23.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Middlesex Water
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 47.83 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.7 |
| Rev LTM | 820 |
| Op Inc LTM | 193 |
| FCF LTM | -106 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -110 |
| CFO LTM | 295 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 217 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 29.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 28.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 36.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 30.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -17.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -17.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.7 |
| P/S | 4.6 |
| P/EBIT | 13.4 |
| P/E | 22.3 |
| P/CFO | 12.6 |
| Total Yield | 7.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -3.2% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -1.5% |
| 6M Rtn | -2.5% |
| 12M Rtn | -3.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | -15.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -7.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -17.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -19.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -87.9% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10312025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2282025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7312024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3012024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7282023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5012023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2242023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10282022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7292022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4292022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Ginegaw Lorrie Beth | VP-HR | 11182025 | Sell | 50.92 | 650 | 33,097 | 188,858 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |