Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.9%, Dividend Yield is 2.5%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -66%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -114%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.8%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%
  Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -16%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 36%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Water Infrastructure. Themes include Water Treatment & Delivery, and Wastewater Management.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.9%, Dividend Yield is 2.5%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 36%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Water Infrastructure. Themes include Water Treatment & Delivery, and Wastewater Management.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -66%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -114%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.8%
6 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -16%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

MSEX Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Q3 2025 Earnings Miss: Middlesex Water reported its third-quarter 2025 diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.77 on October 31, 2025, missing the consensus estimate of $0.86. The company also reported quarterly revenue of $54.09 million, which was below the consensus estimate of $56.08 million.

2. Immediate Stock Price Decline Post-Earnings: The disappointing third-quarter results led to immediate pressure on Middlesex Water's share price, which reportedly slid more than 13% in a single day.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MSEX Return16%69%-34%-15%-18%-1%-11%
Peers Return1%20%-1%18%-8%10%41%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MSEX Win Rate67%67%42%42%42%40% 
Peers Win Rate52%63%48%52%42%48% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MSEX Max Drawdown-22%-7%-37%-21%-30%-8% 
Peers Max Drawdown-26%-10%-27%-20%-17%-8% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CWT, CWCO, AWK, WTRG, AWR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventMSEXS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-48.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven95.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-28.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven40.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven79 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-25.6%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven34.4%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven161 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-41.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven71.4%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1579 days1480 days

Compare to CWT, CWCO, AWK, WTRG, AWR


In The Past

Middlesex Water's stock fell -48.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/31/2021. A -48.7% loss requires a 95.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Middlesex Water (MSEX)

Better Bets than Middlesex Water (MSEX)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MSEX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PEG_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025PEGPublic Service EnterpriseMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.7%-0.7%-0.7%
PCG_9262025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09262025PCGPG&EDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
2.5%2.5%0.0%
AES_9052025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09052025AESAESDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
9.3%9.3%-3.2%
MSEX_9302021_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%09302021MSEXMiddlesex WaterQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
3.2%-23.8%-23.8%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PEG_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025PEGPublic Service EnterpriseMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.7%-0.7%-0.7%
PCG_9262025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09262025PCGPG&EDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
2.5%2.5%0.0%
AES_9052025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09052025AESAESDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
9.3%9.3%-3.2%
MSEX_9302021_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%09302021MSEXMiddlesex WaterQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
3.2%-23.8%-23.8%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Middlesex Water

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MSEXCWTCWCOAWKWTRGAWRMedian
NameMiddlese.Californ.Consolid.American.Essentia.American. 
Mkt Price51.1444.5133.98130.9738.8672.9647.83
Mkt Cap0.92.70.525.511.02.82.7
Rev LTM1951,0021295,0702,380637820
Op Inc LTM54189161,874921197193
FCF LTM-31-18121-1,097-42835-106
FCF 3Y Avg-30-17317-1,006-422-47-110
CFO LTM66323302,035952267295
CFO 3Y Avg58269241,886863165217

Growth & Margins

MSEXCWTCWCOAWKWTRGAWRMedian
NameMiddlese.Californ.Consolid.American.Essentia.American. 
Rev Chg LTM6.2%-2.6%-26.3%12.3%21.4%10.3%8.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg7.3%8.2%28.4%10.0%5.0%10.2%9.1%
Rev Chg Q-1.8%3.9%3.4%9.7%9.6%12.9%6.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.5%1.2%0.9%2.6%1.8%3.4%1.5%
Op Mgn LTM27.6%18.9%12.1%37.0%38.7%30.9%29.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg26.3%17.0%15.5%36.1%34.9%31.3%28.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.2%-0.3%0.1%0.5%-0.1%0.0%0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM33.6%32.2%23.3%40.1%40.0%41.8%36.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg31.8%28.4%16.8%41.3%39.1%27.1%30.1%
FCF/Rev LTM-16.0%-18.0%16.2%-21.6%-18.0%5.5%-17.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-16.6%-18.9%11.5%-22.0%-19.4%-8.2%-17.8%

Valuation

MSEXCWTCWCOAWKWTRGAWRMedian
NameMiddlese.Californ.Consolid.American.Essentia.American. 
Mkt Cap0.92.70.525.511.02.82.7
P/S5.02.73.75.44.74.44.6
P/EBIT16.012.525.213.411.813.413.4
P/E22.820.030.224.416.821.722.3
P/CFO15.08.515.913.311.810.612.6
Total Yield6.9%7.6%4.7%5.8%9.2%7.2%7.0%
Dividend Yield2.5%2.7%1.4%1.7%3.3%2.6%2.5%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-2.7%-6.1%3.9%-3.8%-4.1%-1.5%-3.2%
D/E0.40.60.00.60.70.30.5
Net D/E0.40.5-0.20.60.70.30.5

Returns

MSEXCWTCWCOAWKWTRGAWRMedian
NameMiddlese.Californ.Consolid.American.Essentia.American. 
1M Rtn3.2%-1.0%-1.5%4.6%2.9%2.4%2.7%
3M Rtn-2.9%-3.6%4.8%-6.3%1.5%-0.1%-1.5%
6M Rtn-7.7%-1.4%26.3%-4.5%6.0%-3.6%-2.5%
12M Rtn-16.1%-7.9%33.0%0.1%1.5%-11.0%-3.9%
3Y Rtn-40.1%-25.9%140.8%-9.0%-11.3%-20.5%-15.9%
1M Excs Rtn3.2%-1.0%-1.4%4.7%3.0%2.5%2.7%
3M Excs Rtn-8.6%-9.4%-3.6%-12.2%-4.8%-6.4%-7.5%
6M Excs Rtn-22.4%-16.1%11.6%-19.2%-8.8%-18.3%-17.2%
12M Excs Rtn-33.3%-24.2%14.8%-15.6%-13.0%-25.8%-19.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-113.7%-99.0%77.3%-79.3%-82.9%-93.0%-87.9%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Regulated1,2361,0791,022999910
Non-Regulated878810
Inter-segment Elimination-8-12-10-31-10
Total1,2361,0741,020976910


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity659,602
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120258.1%
Average Daily Volume209,826
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.14
Basic Shares Quantity18,123,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.6%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251031202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025731202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025501202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024228202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241031202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024731202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023301202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231109202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023728202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023501202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022224202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221028202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022729202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022429202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021225202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Ginegaw Lorrie BethVP-HR11182025Sell50.9265033,097188,858Form