American Water Works (AWK)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $130.04 | Market Cap: $25.4 BilSector: Utilities | Industry: Water Utilities
American Water Works (AWK)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $130.04Market Cap: $25.4 BilSector: UtilitiesIndustry: Water Utilities
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Water Infrastructure. Themes include Water Treatment & Delivery, and Wastewater Management. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Water Infrastructure. Themes include Water Treatment & Delivery, and Wastewater Management. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
AWK Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
It's challenging to provide a precise explanation for the -8.2% stock movement for American Water Works (AWK) from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, as this period largely falls in the future. However, based on the most recent available information leading up to and within late 2025, several factors could influence its stock performance.
1. AWK's Recent Financial Performance and Outlook: American Water Works reported strong third-quarter 2025 results on October 29, 2025, with earnings per share of $1.94, compared to $1.80 in the same quarter of 2024. Year-to-date 2025 earnings were $4.47 per share, up from $4.17 in 2024. The company affirmed its 2025 weather-normalized EPS guidance range of $5.70 to $5.75 and initiated a 2026 EPS guidance range of $6.02 to $6.12, reflecting an 8% growth at the midpoint. In its second-quarter 2025 results, reported on July 31, 2025, AWK's EPS rose 4.2% year-over-year to $1.48. Despite strong earnings, a stock decline could suggest that these positive results were already priced in, or that other market factors outweighed the positive earnings reports. The company also announced a 2026-2030 capital plan of $19 to $20 billion and a 2026-2035 capital plan of $46 to $48 billion.
2. Analyst Sentiment and Price Targets: As of December 3, 2025, the consensus analyst rating for AWK was "Hold" with an average price target of $143.00, implying a limited upside from its recent trading prices. Some analysts raised their price targets in August 2025, while others lowered them, indicating mixed views on the stock's immediate future. A "Moderate Sell" consensus rating from some analysts in late 2025, based on a range of price targets, also suggests a bearish outlook, which could contribute to a stock decline.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AWK Return | 27% | 25% | -18% | -12% | -4% | 8% | 19% |
| Peers Return | 6% | 23% | -7% | -15% | -7% | 3% | -1% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AWK Win Rate | 75% | 58% | 42% | 50% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 65% | 48% | 43% | 43% | 46% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AWK Max Drawdown | -21% | -14% | -32% | -23% | -13% | -3% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -25% | -11% | -28% | -24% | -15% | -7% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WTRG, AWR, CWT, AWK, HTO. See AWK Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AWK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -38.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -31.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 116 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -17.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 281 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -29.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.4% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 563 days | 1480 days |
Compare to WTRG, AWR, CWT, AWK, HTO
In The Past
American Water Works's stock fell -38.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/31/2021. A -38.8% loss requires a 63.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to AWK. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | PEG | Public Service Enterprise | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.7% |
| 09262025 | PCG | PG&E | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.5% | 2.5% | 0.0% |
| 09052025 | AES | AES | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.3% | 9.3% | -3.2% |
| 01312024 | AWK | American Water Works | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 16.1% | 2.0% | -7.7% |
| 09302022 | AWK | American Water Works | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.6% | -3.1% | -3.3% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | PEG | Public Service Enterprise | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.7% |
| 09262025 | PCG | PG&E | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.5% | 2.5% | 0.0% |
| 09052025 | AES | AES | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.3% | 9.3% | -3.2% |
| 01312024 | AWK | American Water Works | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 16.1% | 2.0% | -7.7% |
| 09302022 | AWK | American Water Works | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.6% | -3.1% | -3.3% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for American Water Works
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Returns
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Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regulated Businesses | 3,920 | 3,505 | 3,384 | 3,255 | 3,094 |
| Other | 314 | 287 | 546 | -18 | -23 |
| Market-Based Businesses | 540 | 539 | |||
| Total | 4,234 | 3,792 | 3,930 | 3,777 | 3,610 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regulated Businesses | 971 | 854 | 789 | 715 | 654 |
| Other | -27 | -34 | 474 | -97 | -79 |
| Market-Based Businesses | 91 | 46 | |||
| Total | 944 | 820 | 1,263 | 709 | 621 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regulated Businesses | 27,480 | 25,038 | 23,365 | 22,357 | 20,318 |
| Other | 2,818 | 2,749 | 2,710 | 1,518 | 1,356 |
| Market-Based Businesses | 891 | 1,008 | |||
| Total | 30,298 | 27,787 | 26,075 | 24,766 | 22,682 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10292025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7302025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4302025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2192025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7312024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2142024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11012023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7262023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4262023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2152023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10312022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7272022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4272022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2162022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Wikle Melissa K. | SVP, Chief Accounting Officer | 6022025 | Sell | 143.28 | 2,825 | 404,766 | 1,084,916 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |