Hillenbrand (HI)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $31.705 | Market Cap: $2.2 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components
Hillenbrand (HI)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $31.705Market Cap: $2.2 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 2.8% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -62%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -99% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 64% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Automation & Robotics, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Factory Automation, Process / Warehouse Automation, Show more. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 40x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 52x | |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -16%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -22% | ||
| Key risksHI key risks include [1] challenges successfully integrating major strategic acquisitions as part of its ongoing business transformation, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 2.8% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Automation & Robotics, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Factory Automation, Process / Warehouse Automation, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -62%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -99% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 64% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 40x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 52x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -16%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -22% |
| Key risksHI key risks include [1] challenges successfully integrating major strategic acquisitions as part of its ongoing business transformation, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
HI Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Acquisition Agreement by Lone Star Funds
The most significant factor in Hillenbrand's stock movement was the announcement on October 15, 2025, that it had entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by an affiliate of Lone Star Funds. The all-cash transaction valued the company at approximately $3.8 billion, with shareholders set to receive $32.00 per share. This represented a substantial premium of about 37% over its August 12, 2025, closing share price and caused Hillenbrand's stock to surge by over 18% on the news. The transaction is expected to close by the end of the first calendar quarter of 2026.
2. Preceding Sale Speculation and Bids
Leading up to the official acquisition announcement, reports in late September 2025 indicated that Hillenbrand was expecting final bids for its sale. This speculation of a potential buyout by private equity firms, including Lone Star Funds, contributed to an earlier 11.4% jump in Hillenbrand's shares.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HI Return | 23% | 33% | -16% | 14% | -34% | 7% | 11% |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | � | � | � | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HI Win Rate | 67% | 67% | 42% | 67% | 33% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | � | � | � | � | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HI Max Drawdown | -57% | -3% | -28% | -11% | -46% | -39% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | � | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GGG, FLS, GHM, ADVEN, BENN. See HI Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | HI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -31.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 253 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -57.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 135.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 146 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -50.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 102.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 853 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -42.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 73.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 514 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to GGG, FLS, GHM, ADVEN, BENN
In The Past
Hillenbrand's stock fell -31.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/27/2021. A -31.2% loss requires a 45.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to HI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.8% | 19.8% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.2% | 4.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| 03312025 | HI | Hillenbrand | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.8% | 34.9% | -22.9% |
| 09302022 | HI | Hillenbrand | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 30.7% | 17.4% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.8% | 19.8% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.2% | 4.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| 03312025 | HI | Hillenbrand | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.8% | 34.9% | -22.9% |
| 09302022 | HI | Hillenbrand | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 30.7% | 17.4% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Hillenbrand
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 65.25 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.6 |
| Rev LTM | 2,433 |
| Op Inc LTM | 309 |
| FCF LTM | 321 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 232 |
| CFO LTM | 364 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 297 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 8.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 5.6 |
| P/S | 2.1 |
| P/EBIT | 23.6 |
| P/E | 36.2 |
| P/CFO | 30.4 |
| Total Yield | 4.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 20.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 41.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 12.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 91.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 15.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 29.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -1.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 16.1% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/19/2025 | 0.0% | 0.1% | |
| 8/11/2025 | 18.5% | 28.0% | 26.6% |
| 4/29/2025 | -10.6% | -12.6% | -12.6% |
| 2/5/2025 | -7.3% | -1.4% | -18.9% |
| 11/13/2024 | 11.7% | 5.5% | 6.5% |
| 8/7/2024 | -4.2% | -11.9% | -23.9% |
| 4/30/2024 | -13.2% | -5.7% | -3.9% |
| 2/5/2024 | -4.8% | 0.8% | 2.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 12 | 12 |
| # Negative | 13 | 11 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 3.1% | 3.2% | 5.9% |
| Median Negative | -4.2% | -5.7% | -9.4% |
| Max Positive | 18.5% | 28.0% | 51.6% |
| Max Negative | -13.2% | -12.6% | -25.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11192025 | 10-K 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8112025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4292025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2052025 | 10-Q 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11192024 | 10-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4302024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2052024 | 10-Q 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11152023 | 10-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5082023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2082023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11162022 | 10-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5092022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2022022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |