Green Circle Decarbonize Technology (GCDT)
Market Price (5/30/2026): $0.92 | Market Cap: $-Sector: Industrials | Industry: Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components
Green Circle Decarbonize Technology (GCDT)
Market Price (5/30/2026): $0.92Market Cap: $-Sector: IndustrialsIndustry: Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Hydrogen Economy. Themes include Carbon Capture & Storage, Renewable Fuel Production, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -121%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -160% | Penny stockMkt Price is 1.0 High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 169% Key risksGCDT key risks include [1] significant execution challenges in scaling its production and operations using IPO proceeds, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Hydrogen Economy. Themes include Carbon Capture & Storage, Renewable Fuel Production, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -121%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -160% |
| Penny stockMkt Price is 1.0 |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 169% |
| Key risksGCDT key risks include [1] significant execution challenges in scaling its production and operations using IPO proceeds, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Green Circle Decarbonize Technology (GCDT) stock has lost about 75% since 1/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Significant post-IPO price decline from initial trading. The stock of Green Circle Decarbonize Technology (GCDT) began trading on January 13, 2026, with an initial public offering (IPO) price of $4.00 per share, reaching an all-time high of $5.8500 on the same day. However, by May 1, 2026, the stock had fallen to $0.90 USD, representing an approximate 77.5% decline from its IPO price and over 84% from its peak. This indicates a rapid loss of investor confidence and significant downward price discovery in the period following its market debut.
2. Weak financial position with deepening shareholders' deficit and high leverage. On February 6, 2026, the company reported unaudited interim results for the six months ended September 30, 2025. While revenue increased to HK$11.8 million, the report highlighted significant financial strain: total current liabilities of HK$50.2 million substantially exceeded total assets of HK$26.9 million, and the accumulated deficit widened to HK$39.6 million. These figures underscore a highly leveraged balance sheet and ongoing financial pressures.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GCDT | -76.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.6% | 18.4% |
| Sector (XLI) | 4.9% | 20.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GCDT | ||
| Market (SPY) | 11.5% | 12.6% |
| Sector (XLI) | 12.4% | 15.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GCDT | ||
| Market (SPY) | 38.0% | 12.6% |
| Sector (XLI) | 33.7% | 15.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GCDT | ||
| Market (SPY) | 89.0% | 12.6% |
| Sector (XLI) | 81.1% | 15.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| GCDT Return | - | - | - | - | - | -74% | -74% |
| Peers Return | 41% | -17% | 44% | 42% | -3% | 28% | 195% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 101% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| GCDT Win Rate | - | - | - | - | - | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 77% | 38% | 57% | 72% | 47% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| GCDT Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -17% | -40% | -22% | -15% | -32% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: TT, CARR, JCI, LII, AAON.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/29/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
GCDT has limited trading history. Below is the Industrials sector ETF (XLI) in its place.
| Event | XLI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -15.8% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.8% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -11.7% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.2% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 45 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -20.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 125 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -41.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 71.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 231 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -23.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.1% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 120 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -11.1% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.5% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 51 days | 62 days |
In The Past
State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -15.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 18.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
GCDT has limited trading history. Below is the Industrials sector ETF (XLI) in its place.
| Event | XLI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -20.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 125 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -41.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 71.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 231 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -23.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.1% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 120 days | 105 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -22.5% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.0% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 114 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -60.5% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 153.2% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 700 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -15.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 18.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Green Circle Decarbonize Technology (GCDT)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-2 brief analogies to describe Green Circle Decarbonize Technology (GCDT):
- It's like Tesla Powerwall, but for storing thermal energy to optimize commercial building cooling.
- They are like Johnson Controls, but hyper-focused on proprietary thermal energy storage to achieve extreme energy efficiency in commercial HVAC systems.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- BocaPCM-TES Panels: Custom-made containers filled with proprietary phase change materials for thermal energy storage, applicable in various temperature ranges.
- BocaPCM-TES System: An integrated phase change material thermal energy storage system designed for heating, ventilation, air conditioning, and refrigeration applications.
- Ultra-High Efficiency Boca Hybrid Power Chiller Plant: An advanced cooling system that integrates BocaPCM-TES technology with central air conditioning systems to significantly reduce electricity consumption and operating costs.
- Consultation on Research and Development Services: Expert advisory and support services for clients' research and development initiatives in decarbonization and energy efficiency.
- Thermal Engineering Services: Professional services related to the design, implementation, and optimization of thermal energy systems utilizing their proprietary technology.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Major Customers
Green Circle Decarbonize Technology primarily sells its advanced energy-saving solutions and services to other companies. Its major customers identified in the provided text are:- Hong Kong Aircraft Engineering Company Limited (HAECO): HAECO is a significant customer, having engaged Green Circle Decarbonize Technology for energy saving services using the Ultra-High Efficiency Boca Hybrid Power Chiller Plant at its headquarters in Hong Kong International Airport. HAECO is a subsidiary of Swire Pacific Ltd.
- LMP International Limited: This company is a customer for the provision of Green Circle Decarbonize Technology's BocaPCM-TES System at the Bayview Garden Shopping Centre.
AI Analysis | Feedback
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AI Analysis | Feedback
Richard Chan
CEO & Director
Richard Chan was appointed CEO of Green Circle Decarbonize Technology in December 2025. He directly owns 49.4% of the company's shares.
Tai Yan Lai
Chief Financial Officer
Lai Yuen Lui
Chief Administrative Officer & Executive Director
AI Analysis | Feedback
Key Risks to Green Circle Decarbonize Technology (GCDT)
- Customer Concentration Risk: Green Circle Decarbonize Technology faces significant customer concentration risk, as nearly all of its revenue for the years ended March 31, 2024, and 2025, was derived from a very limited number of projects. For the fiscal year 2024, revenue primarily came from a single project with Hong Kong Aircraft Engineering Company Limited (HAECO). In fiscal year 2025, 100% of the revenue was generated from three projects: the HAECO project, the Soar Project, and a project with LMP International Limited. The loss of any one of these key customers or projects could have a substantial adverse impact on the company's financial performance and future prospects.
- Technological Obsolescence and Competition Risk: The company's business model is centered on its proprietary phase change material (PCM) thermal energy storage (TES) technology. While this technology is presented as advanced and effective, the decarbonization and energy efficiency sectors are characterized by rapid technological innovation and intense competition. There is a risk that new, more efficient, cost-effective, or widely adopted decarbonization technologies or alternative energy-saving solutions could emerge, potentially rendering GCDT's BocaPCM-TES Technology less competitive or even obsolete. Furthermore, protecting and enforcing intellectual property rights for their proprietary technology against competitors could be challenging and costly.
- Market Expansion and Execution Risk: Green Circle Decarbonize Technology intends to expand its market presence beyond its current base in Hong Kong to regions like the PRC, the Republic of Korea, and the Middle East, supported by agency agreements. However, the company currently has a limited operating history and revenue stream derived from a small number of projects. Successfully penetrating new, diverse, and potentially competitive international markets, securing new clients, and scaling its operations effectively presents significant execution challenges. Failure to successfully implement its market expansion strategy and diversify its customer base could limit its growth potential and long-term viability.
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
Green Circle Decarbonize Technology (GCDT) operates within the addressable markets for thermal energy storage, chiller systems, and energy-efficient HVAC solutions across several key regions:
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China:
- The thermal energy storage market in China was valued at approximately USD 12.62 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 22.34 billion by 2032, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.99% from 2025 to 2032.
- The chillers market in China generated a revenue of USD 2,433.5 million in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 3,885.6 million by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 6% from 2026 to 2033.
- The overall HVAC market in China, driven by demand for energy-efficient solutions, is estimated at USD 55.18 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 80.44 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 7.83% during this period.
-
Republic of Korea (South Korea):
- The chillers market in South Korea generated a revenue of USD 380.2 million in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 548.7 million by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 4.7% from 2026 to 2033.
- The South Korea HVAC market size was estimated at USD 5.40 billion in 2024 and is anticipated to reach USD 11.78 billion by 2035, growing at a CAGR of approximately 7.35% from 2025 to 2035.
-
Middle East:
- The Middle East chillers market size was estimated at USD 462.5 million in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 747.1 million by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 5.5% from 2025 to 2033.
- The broader Middle East & Africa thermal energy storage market was valued at approximately USD 2,088.36 million in 2022 and is expected to reach USD 4,078.64 million by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 8.7% from 2022 to 2030.
- The Middle East HVAC systems market size was valued at USD 11.44 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 21.24 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 6.4% from 2025 to 2034.
-
Hong Kong:
- Specific addressable market sizes for Hong Kong alone were not available in the search results.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Green Circle Decarbonize Technology (GCDT)
- Geographical Market Expansion: Green Circle Decarbonize Technology intends to expand its market presence by marketing and selling its products and services in Hong Kong, the People's Republic of China (PRC), the Republic of Korea, and the Middle East. This expansion is further supported by agency agreements with five companies located in Hong Kong, Shanghai, Guangdong Province, Korea, and Dubai, which are tasked with selling and installing products related to the BocaPCM-TES Technology in their specified territories.
- New Customer Acquisition and Project Wins for Core Products: A significant driver of revenue growth will be the acquisition of new clients and securing new projects for the company's primary offerings, the BocaPCM-TES System and the Ultra-High Efficiency Boca Hybrid Power Chiller Plant. These systems are designed to reduce electricity consumption and running costs for central air conditioning applications, presenting a value proposition for potential clients.
- Growth from Recently Secured Projects: The company's revenue for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2025, was largely driven by the HAECO project, the Soar Project (consultation on research and development services), and a project with LMP International Limited for the provision of the BocaPCM-TES System at the Bayview Garden Shopping Centre. Continued success, potential expansion, or follow-on projects with these existing clients and similar new contracts will contribute to revenue growth.
- Development and Commercialization of Enhanced Decarbonization Technologies: Green Circle Decarbonize Technology is committed to ongoing research and development to create "environmental-friendly, efficient, and cost-saving technologies and solutions." This continuous innovation could lead to the introduction of enhanced versions of existing products or entirely new decarbonization technologies and services, attracting a broader client base and driving future revenue streams.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Issuance
- Green Circle Decarbonize Technology completed its Initial Public Offering (IPO) on January 14, 2026, issuing 2,500,000 ordinary shares at $4.00 per share, which generated approximately $10 million in gross proceeds.
- On February 12, 2026, the underwriters fully exercised their over-allotment option, selling an additional 375,000 ordinary shares at $4.00 per share, bringing the aggregate gross proceeds from the IPO and over-allotment to $11.5 million.
Capital Expenditures
- Net proceeds from the IPO are intended for the construction of a factory to expand production capacity.
- The company plans to use IPO proceeds for the acquisition of necessary machinery for production.
- A portion of the IPO proceeds is allocated for the repayment of certain indebtedness and borrowings.
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to GCDT.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04302026 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04302026 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04172026 | RSG | Republic Services | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.8% | 0.8% | -1.1% |
| 04102026 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.3% | 12.3% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | UHAL | U-Haul | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.3% | 0.3% | -1.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 137.13 |
| Mkt Cap | 53.3 |
| Rev LTM | 21,603 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,584 |
| FCF LTM | 1,366 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,423 |
| CFO LTM | 1,738 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,881 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.3% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 1.4% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 16.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 13.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 15.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 9.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 53.3 |
| P/S | 3.4 |
| P/Op Inc | 25.5 |
| P/EBIT | 28.4 |
| P/E | 34.5 |
| P/CFO | 28.7 |
| Total Yield | 3.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.4% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 0.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -4.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 11.8% |
| 12M Rtn | -1.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 107.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -5.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -14.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 0.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -30.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 25.7% |
Earnings Returns History
Updated 5/29/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | |||
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