Tearsheet

GXO Logistics (GXO)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $52.58 | Market Cap: $6.0 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Air Freight & Logistics

GXO Logistics (GXO)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $52.58
Market Cap: $6.0 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Air Freight & Logistics

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -52%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -49%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 85%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 41%
  Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 68x
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Automation & Robotics, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Process / Warehouse Automation, Show more.
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.7%
3   Key risks
GXO key risks include [1] a highly leveraged balance sheet creating potential liquidity distress and [2] execution risk from its acquisition-focused growth strategy and leadership transitions.
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 41%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Automation & Robotics, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Process / Warehouse Automation, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -52%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -49%
4 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 85%
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 68x
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.7%
7 Key risks
GXO key risks include [1] a highly leveraged balance sheet creating potential liquidity distress and [2] execution risk from its acquisition-focused growth strategy and leadership transitions.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

GXO Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to today, December 18, 2025, that may have contributed to the -0.1% stock movement for GXO Logistics: 1. GXO Logistics reported strong third-quarter 2025 results with record revenue, but next quarter's revenue guidance fell slightly below analysts' estimates. The company announced record quarterly revenue of $3.4 billion, an 8% increase year-over-year, with organic revenue growth of 4%. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) increased to $0.51 from $0.28 in Q3 2024, and adjusted diluted EPS was $0.79, matching the prior year's period. However, the guidance for Q4 2025 revenue at $3.41 billion was approximately 3.2% below analysts' estimates of $3.52 billion, which could have introduced a slight negative sentiment.

2. A planned leadership transition was announced with Brad Jacobs stepping down as Non-Executive Chairman. GXO Logistics announced on December 15, 2025, that Brad Jacobs would step down as Non-Executive Chairman of the Board, effective December 31, 2025. Patrick Byrne was appointed to succeed him in this role. While described as a non-contentious and planned transition following a period of significant transformation, such changes can sometimes lead to minor market adjustments as investors assess the implications of new leadership.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
GXO Return-53%43%-29%21%
Peers Return27%32%-15%48%17%30%221%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
GXO Win Rate60%33%67%58%67% 
Peers Win Rate58%63%43%63%57%72% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
GXO Max Drawdown-63%-2%-31%-28% 
Peers Max Drawdown-39%-5%-29%-7%-14%-19% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: XPO, CHRW, R, JBHT, EXPD.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventGXOS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-67.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven212.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days

Compare to XPO, SAIC, IAC, FIVN, BMBL


In The Past

GXO Logistics's stock fell -67.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/18/2021. A -67.9% loss requires a 212.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About GXO Logistics (GXO)

Better Bets than GXO Logistics (GXO)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to GXO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
19.8%19.8%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
13.6%13.6%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.2%4.2%-1.2%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
19.8%19.8%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
13.6%13.6%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.2%4.2%-1.2%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for GXO Logistics

Peers to compare with:

Financials

GXOXPOCHRWRJBHTEXPDMedian
NameGXO Logi.XPO C.H. Rob.Ryder Sy.JB Hunt .Expedito. 
Mkt Price52.60145.10160.10188.49194.10149.75154.93
Mkt Cap6.017.119.27.718.720.417.9
Rev LTM12,9218,06716,50512,70812,04911,27312,378
Op Inc LTM4117067971,1128261,116812
FCF LTM77232807-88790810511
FCF 3Y Avg197-206794-4583881,104293
CFO LTM4509498772,4031,610862913
CFO 3Y Avg5328088752,3291,6471,1521,013

Growth & Margins

GXOXPOCHRWRJBHTEXPDMedian
NameGXO Logi.XPO C.H. Rob.Ryder Sy.JB Hunt .Expedito. 
Rev Chg LTM16.9%-0.3%-7.1%1.3%-1.6%23.7%0.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg13.7%38.4%-13.4%2.0%-6.3%-12.5%-2.1%
Rev Chg Q7.5%2.8%-10.9%-0.3%-0.5%8.7%1.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.9%0.7%-3.0%-0.1%-0.1%1.9%0.3%
Op Mgn LTM3.2%8.8%4.8%8.8%6.9%9.9%7.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg3.4%8.0%3.8%8.8%7.2%10.1%7.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.1%0.1%0.4%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM3.5%11.8%5.3%18.9%13.4%7.6%9.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg4.9%10.1%4.9%18.7%13.1%10.1%10.1%
FCF/Rev LTM0.6%2.9%4.9%-0.7%6.6%7.2%3.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg1.9%-2.6%4.5%-3.7%3.2%9.7%2.5%

Valuation

GXOXPOCHRWRJBHTEXPDMedian
NameGXO Logi.XPO C.H. Rob.Ryder Sy.JB Hunt .Expedito. 
Mkt Cap6.017.119.27.718.720.417.9
P/S0.51.91.00.61.11.41.0
P/EBIT22.522.919.97.015.513.917.7
P/E68.045.926.515.322.518.324.5
P/CFO13.516.118.13.28.018.114.8
Total Yield1.5%2.2%5.7%8.4%5.8%6.8%5.7%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%1.9%1.9%1.3%1.3%1.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg3.0%-1.8%6.7%-8.5%2.8%6.4%2.9%
D/E0.90.30.11.20.10.00.2
Net D/E0.90.20.11.10.1-0.00.2

Returns

GXOXPOCHRWRJBHTEXPDMedian
NameGXO Logi.XPO C.H. Rob.Ryder Sy.JB Hunt .Expedito. 
1M Rtn9.4%13.4%5.3%14.6%21.1%5.8%11.4%
3M Rtn4.2%11.8%19.0%2.7%44.7%20.5%15.4%
6M Rtn23.0%20.3%72.9%25.7%40.4%33.1%29.4%
12M Rtn12.0%-8.1%50.3%18.8%10.7%30.8%15.4%
3Y Rtn24.0%300.6%83.5%139.6%11.9%43.0%63.3%
1M Excs Rtn8.7%12.7%4.6%13.9%20.4%5.1%10.7%
3M Excs Rtn1.6%8.9%15.9%0.7%42.7%20.0%12.4%
6M Excs Rtn10.6%7.9%60.5%13.3%28.1%20.7%17.0%
12M Excs Rtn-2.6%-18.2%35.8%5.0%-1.9%16.8%1.6%
3Y Excs Rtn-48.8%222.3%8.4%68.8%-61.4%-31.4%-11.5%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil2024202320222021
Single Segment9,7788,9937,9406,195
Total9,7788,9937,9406,195


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity7,238,753
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520251.2%
Average Daily Volume1,066,491
Days-to-Cover Short Interest6.79
Basic Shares Quantity114,473,000
Short % of Basic Shares6.3%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/4/2025-5.1%-5.4%-5.1%
8/5/20253.1%4.9%4.9%
5/7/20254.3%7.9%10.8%
2/12/2025-15.1%-6.7%-6.1%
11/4/2024-1.5%2.6%-13.2%
8/6/2024-3.8%-5.9%-1.9%
4/24/2024-2.1%-1.0%4.6%
2/13/2024-1.2%-2.9%-9.0%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive977
# Negative81010
Median Positive3.1%7.9%9.4%
Median Negative-2.9%-5.4%-9.9%
Max Positive4.7%23.3%20.2%
Max Negative-15.1%-13.5%-13.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024218202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241105202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024806202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023215202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023510202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022216202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021217202210-K 12/31/2021