GXO Logistics (GXO)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $52.58 | Market Cap: $6.0 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Air Freight & Logistics
GXO Logistics (GXO)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $52.58Market Cap: $6.0 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Air Freight & Logistics
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -52%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -49% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 85% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 41% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 68x | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Automation & Robotics, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Process / Warehouse Automation, Show more. | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.7% | |
| Key risksGXO key risks include [1] a highly leveraged balance sheet creating potential liquidity distress and [2] execution risk from its acquisition-focused growth strategy and leadership transitions. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 41% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Automation & Robotics, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Process / Warehouse Automation, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -52%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -49% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 85% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 68x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.7% |
| Key risksGXO key risks include [1] a highly leveraged balance sheet creating potential liquidity distress and [2] execution risk from its acquisition-focused growth strategy and leadership transitions. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
GXO Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to today, December 18, 2025, that may have contributed to the -0.1% stock movement for GXO Logistics:
1. GXO Logistics reported strong third-quarter 2025 results with record revenue, but next quarter's revenue guidance fell slightly below analysts' estimates. The company announced record quarterly revenue of $3.4 billion, an 8% increase year-over-year, with organic revenue growth of 4%. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) increased to $0.51 from $0.28 in Q3 2024, and adjusted diluted EPS was $0.79, matching the prior year's period. However, the guidance for Q4 2025 revenue at $3.41 billion was approximately 3.2% below analysts' estimates of $3.52 billion, which could have introduced a slight negative sentiment.
2. A planned leadership transition was announced with Brad Jacobs stepping down as Non-Executive Chairman. GXO Logistics announced on December 15, 2025, that Brad Jacobs would step down as Non-Executive Chairman of the Board, effective December 31, 2025. Patrick Byrne was appointed to succeed him in this role. While described as a non-contentious and planned transition following a period of significant transformation, such changes can sometimes lead to minor market adjustments as investors assess the implications of new leadership.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| GXO Return | � | � | -53% | 43% | -29% | 21% | � |
| Peers Return | 27% | 32% | -15% | 48% | 17% | 30% | 221% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| GXO Win Rate | � | 60% | 33% | 67% | 58% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 63% | 43% | 63% | 57% | 72% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| GXO Max Drawdown | � | � | -63% | -2% | -31% | -28% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -39% | -5% | -29% | -7% | -14% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: XPO, CHRW, R, JBHT, EXPD.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | GXO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -67.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 212.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to XPO, SAIC, IAC, FIVN, BMBL
In The Past
GXO Logistics's stock fell -67.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/18/2021. A -67.9% loss requires a 212.0% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to GXO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.8% | 19.8% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.6% | 13.6% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.2% | 4.2% | -1.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.8% | 19.8% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.6% | 13.6% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.2% | 4.2% | -1.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for GXO Logistics
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 154.93 |
| Mkt Cap | 17.9 |
| Rev LTM | 12,378 |
| Op Inc LTM | 812 |
| FCF LTM | 511 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 293 |
| CFO LTM | 913 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,013 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 0.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -2.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 1.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 9.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 3.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 17.9 |
| P/S | 1.0 |
| P/EBIT | 17.7 |
| P/E | 24.5 |
| P/CFO | 14.8 |
| Total Yield | 5.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.9% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 11.4% |
| 3M Rtn | 15.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 29.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 15.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 63.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 10.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 12.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 17.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 1.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -11.5% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/4/2025 | -5.1% | -5.4% | -5.1% |
| 8/5/2025 | 3.1% | 4.9% | 4.9% |
| 5/7/2025 | 4.3% | 7.9% | 10.8% |
| 2/12/2025 | -15.1% | -6.7% | -6.1% |
| 11/4/2024 | -1.5% | 2.6% | -13.2% |
| 8/6/2024 | -3.8% | -5.9% | -1.9% |
| 4/24/2024 | -2.1% | -1.0% | 4.6% |
| 2/13/2024 | -1.2% | -2.9% | -9.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 7 | 7 |
| # Negative | 8 | 10 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 3.1% | 7.9% | 9.4% |
| Median Negative | -2.9% | -5.4% | -9.9% |
| Max Positive | 4.7% | 23.3% | 20.2% |
| Max Negative | -15.1% | -13.5% | -13.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2182025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11052024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2152024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2162023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2172022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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