Tearsheet

GRAIL (GRAL)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $99.48 | Market Cap: $3.6 Bil
Sector: Health Care | Industry: Life Sciences Tools & Services

GRAIL (GRAL)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $99.48
Market Cap: $3.6 Bil
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Life Sciences Tools & Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -29%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -605 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -450%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Advanced Diagnostics, and Personalized Diagnostics.
  Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 153%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 423%
2   Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -276%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -277%
3   Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 187%
4   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -28%
5   High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 117%
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -29%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Advanced Diagnostics, and Personalized Diagnostics.
2 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15%
3 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -605 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -450%
4 Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 153%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 423%
5 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -276%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -277%
6 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 187%
7 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -28%
8 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 117%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

GRAL Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

GRAIL (GRAL) experienced a significant stock movement from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, driven by several key factors:

1. Positive Analyst Ratings and Price Target Increases. Investment banks initiated or updated their ratings for GRAIL, with at least one raising its price target to $105 from $85 around November 17, 2025, indicating increased confidence in the company's future performance.

2. Significant Stock Performance Surges in October and November 2025. GRAIL's stock saw substantial upward movements during this period, including an "explosion" of 55% in October and further significant gains ("soared, again") in November 2025. Reports also indicated the stock was up 80% over the month leading up to October 23, 2025.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
GRAL Return-----446%446%
Peers Return42%3%-9%-5%-14%33%43%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
GRAL Win Rate----50%70% 
Peers Win Rate40%33%32%28%25%53% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
GRAL Max Drawdown------2% 
Peers Max Drawdown-25%-12%-25%-25%-21%-10% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: A, ATEC, CERS, BLLN, BNBX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

GRAL has limited trading history. Below is the Health Care sector ETF (XLV) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLVS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-16.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven19.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven599 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-28.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven40.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven116 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-15.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven18.8%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven326 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-40.6%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven68.3%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1100 days1480 days

Compare to


In The Past

SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -16.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/8/2022. A -16.1% loss requires a 19.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About GRAIL (GRAL)

Better Bets than GRAIL (GRAL)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to GRAL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for GRAIL

Peers to compare with:

Financials

GRALAATECCERSBLLNBNBXMedian
NameGRAIL Agilent .Alphatec Cerus BillionT.BNB Plus  
Mkt Price101.19149.2621.231.99102.763.1161.21
Mkt Cap3.642.43.20.4--3.4
Rev LTM1346,788728199-4199
Op Inc LTM-6051,444-74-9--13-13
FCF LTM-3721,088-30--14-3
FCF 3Y Avg-1,308-112-15--10-13
CFO LTM-3701,495354--134
CFO 3Y Avg-1,662-36-12--10-11

Growth & Margins

GRALAATECCERSBLLNBNBXMedian
NameGRAIL Agilent .Alphatec Cerus BillionT.BNB Plus  
Rev Chg LTM22.4%4.5%27.1%13.0%--51.0%13.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-0.8%31.8%8.3%--12.6%4.6%
Rev Chg Q11.2%10.1%30.4%14.5%-34.3%14.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.7%2.4%6.7%3.5%-7.5%3.5%
Op Mgn LTM-450.5%21.3%-10.1%-4.8%--306.1%-10.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-21.5%-21.8%-11.9%--170.3%-16.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM80.8%-0.1%3.8%1.3%-42.9%3.8%
CFO/Rev LTM-275.6%22.0%4.8%1.8%--301.5%1.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-24.6%-7.6%-7.5%--141.9%-7.6%
FCF/Rev LTM-276.8%16.0%-0.5%0.1%--313.1%-0.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-19.4%-21.7%-9.7%--147.0%-15.7%

Valuation

GRALAATECCERSBLLNBNBXMedian
NameGRAIL Agilent .Alphatec Cerus BillionT.BNB Plus  
Mkt Cap3.642.43.20.4--3.4
P/S13.74.93.01.5--4.0
P/EBIT-3.022.2-19.2-42.1---11.1
P/E-4.227.5-14.2-19.1---9.2
P/CFO-5.022.462.885.5--42.6
Total Yield-24.1%4.5%-7.0%-5.2%---6.1%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.8%0.0%0.0%--0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-3.7%-11.2%-5.1%---5.1%
D/E0.00.10.30.3--0.2
Net D/E-0.30.10.20.1--0.1

Returns

GRALAATECCERSBLLNBNBXMedian
NameGRAIL Agilent .Alphatec Cerus BillionT.BNB Plus  
1M Rtn12.7%3.2%10.1%30.9%--8.5%10.1%
3M Rtn212.1%19.4%33.5%51.9%--42.7%
6M Rtn152.9%30.4%72.9%38.2%--55.5%
12M Rtn422.7%8.0%112.3%12.4%--62.4%
3Y Rtn--2.0%106.7%-52.0%---2.0%
1M Excs Rtn12.7%3.2%10.1%31.0%--8.5%10.1%
3M Excs Rtn195.9%11.1%22.9%44.3%--33.6%
6M Excs Rtn138.2%15.7%58.2%23.5%--40.8%
12M Excs Rtn464.7%-4.5%89.0%-6.0%--42.3%
3Y Excs Rtn--72.6%50.7%-119.0%---72.6%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity5,444,402
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120250.5%
Average Daily Volume988,854
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.51
Basic Shares Quantity35,793,154
Short % of Basic Shares15.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025813202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025514202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024305202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241113202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024813202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024529202410-12B/A 3/31/2024
12312023506202410-12B 12/31/2023
123120199092020S-1 12/31/2019