Tempus AI (TEM)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $77.55 | Market Cap: $13.6 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Technology
Tempus AI (TEM)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $77.55Market Cap: $13.6 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Health Care Technology
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 73% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -242 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -22% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, Biotechnology & Genomics, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Personalized Diagnostics, Show more. | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -20%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -23% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.6% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 73% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, Biotechnology & Genomics, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Personalized Diagnostics, Show more. |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -242 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -22% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -20%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -23% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.6% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
TEM Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Tempus AI (TEM) experienced a -1.3% stock movement between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, influenced by a combination of factors.
1. Mixed Reaction to Q3 2025 Earnings Report. Despite Tempus AI reporting higher-than-expected revenue of $334.21 million and a narrower loss per share of -$0.11 for the third quarter of 2025, the stock saw a decline of approximately 4.76% in after-hours trading on November 4, 2025. This suggests that investors may have focused on other aspects of the report or broader market conditions.
2. Negative Outlook from Paige Acquisition on Q4 Profitability. During the Q3 earnings call, Tempus AI indicated that its acquisition of Paige is projected to increase losses by approximately $5 million per quarter, leading to a forecasted negative adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025. This forward-looking guidance likely contributed to investor caution regarding short-term profitability.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TEM Return | - | - | - | - | - | 119% | 119% |
| Peers Return | 19% | 16% | -4% | -24% | 2% | -26% | -24% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TEM Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 50% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 20% | 23% | 23% | 27% | 27% | 49% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TEM Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | -6% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -16% | -2% | -32% | -33% | -23% | -36% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: OMCL, MDRX, BEAT, CARL, HTFL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
TEM has limited trading history. Below is the Health Care sector ETF (XLV) in its place.
| Event | XLV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -16.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 599 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -28.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 116 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -15.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 326 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -40.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1100 days | 1480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -16.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/8/2022. A -16.1% loss requires a 19.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Tempus AI Stock Drop Looks Sharp, But How Deep Can It Go? | Return | ||
| TEM Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Day 7 of Gains Streak for Tempus AI Stock with 23% Return (vs. 113% YTD) [6/16/2025] | Notification | ||
| Tempus AI (TEM) Valuation Ratios Comparison | Financials | ||
| Tempus AI (TEM) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Tempus AI (TEM) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Tempus AI (TEM) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Tempus AI (TEM) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Mid Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | October 4th, 2025 | ||
| Why Tempus AI Is A High Stakes High Rewards Play? | September 12th, 2025 | ||
| Tempus AI: Will The Rally Continue? | August 18th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TEM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.0% | 10.0% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.9% | 6.9% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.9% | 8.9% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.0% | 10.0% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.9% | 6.9% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.9% | 8.9% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Tempus AI
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 22.49 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.2 |
| Rev LTM | 363 |
| Op Inc LTM | -22 |
| FCF LTM | -23 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -46 |
| CFO LTM | -22 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -17 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -3.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 10.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -21.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -2.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -20.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -4.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -22.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -14.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.2 |
| P/S | 1.2 |
| P/EBIT | -5.4 |
| P/E | -4.0 |
| P/CFO | 0.8 |
| Total Yield | -9.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -1.5% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -5.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -0.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 17.8% |
| 12M Rtn | -33.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | -73.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -5.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -6.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 3.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -46.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -145.3% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2242025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11042024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 6172024 | 424B4 12/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 12152023 | DRS/A 12/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 1172023 | DRS/A 12/31/2021 |
| 6302021 | 10282021 | DRS/A 6/30/2021 |
| 12312020 | 12032021 | DRS/A 12/31/2020 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |