Tempus AI (TEM)
Market Price (12/29/2025): $62.0 | Market Cap: $10.8 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Technology
Tempus AI (TEM)
Market Price (12/29/2025): $62.0Market Cap: $10.8 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Health Care Technology
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 73% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -26% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -242 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -22% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, Biotechnology & Genomics, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Personalized Diagnostics, Show more. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 10% | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -20%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -23% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.0% | ||
| Key risksTEM key risks include [1] substantial net losses and negative cash flow, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 73% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, Biotechnology & Genomics, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Personalized Diagnostics, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -26% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 10% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -242 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -22% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -20%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -23% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.0% |
| Key risksTEM key risks include [1] substantial net losses and negative cash flow, Show more. |
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Analyst Downgrades and Price Target Reductions: Several financial analysts reduced their price targets for Tempus AI (TEM) towards the end of 2025. Canaccord Genuity lowered its price target from $95.00 to $80.00 in December, a 15.79% decrease, while JP Morgan also reduced its target to $80.00 in mid-December. Notably, Piper Sandler made a "substantial 23.81% decrease" in its price target from $105.00 to $80.00 in November. These downward revisions likely contributed to negative investor sentiment.
2. Concerns Over Reimbursement and Execution Risk: Despite modest sequential improvements in reimbursement during the third quarter of 2025, Tempus AI's average blended reimbursement per test continued to lag behind its peers. The company's reliance on regulatory review timelines for its FDA and Advanced Diagnostic Laboratory Test (ADLT) pathway submissions presented elevated execution risks. Potential delays in approvals or adverse payer policy changes were identified as factors that could defer expected pricing convergence and slow margin expansion.
3. Valuation Premium and Lack of Near-Term Profitability: Throughout the period, concerns lingered regarding Tempus AI's valuation premium and its lack of profitability. In August 2025, despite strong top-line growth and product momentum, the company remained unprofitable, with an adjusted EBITDA loss in the first quarter. By December 2025, TEM was trading at a forward 12-month Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio of 7.35X, which was higher than the industry average of 5.77X, suggesting an expensive valuation that could weigh on near-term upside.
4. Increase in Debt Levels: Tempus AI experienced a notable increase in its debt. By September 2025, the company's total debt reached US$1.25 billion, a significant rise from US$439.0 million a year prior, resulting in a net debt of US$486.0 million. The company's liabilities were reported to outweigh its cash and near-term receivables by US$725.3 million, which could raise concerns about its financial leverage.
5. Bearish Market Sentiment: Towards the end of 2025, the overall market sentiment for Tempus AI (TEM) turned increasingly bearish. Technical indicators on December 26, 2025, showed a bearish sentiment, with numerous signals indicating a downward trend. The stock experienced consistent declines, falling for several consecutive days and showing a -15.14% drop over a ten-day period by late December 2025. Show more
2. Concerns Over Reimbursement and Execution Risk: Despite modest sequential improvements in reimbursement during the third quarter of 2025, Tempus AI's average blended reimbursement per test continued to lag behind its peers. The company's reliance on regulatory review timelines for its FDA and Advanced Diagnostic Laboratory Test (ADLT) pathway submissions presented elevated execution risks. Potential delays in approvals or adverse payer policy changes were identified as factors that could defer expected pricing convergence and slow margin expansion.
3. Valuation Premium and Lack of Near-Term Profitability: Throughout the period, concerns lingered regarding Tempus AI's valuation premium and its lack of profitability. In August 2025, despite strong top-line growth and product momentum, the company remained unprofitable, with an adjusted EBITDA loss in the first quarter. By December 2025, TEM was trading at a forward 12-month Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio of 7.35X, which was higher than the industry average of 5.77X, suggesting an expensive valuation that could weigh on near-term upside.
4. Increase in Debt Levels: Tempus AI experienced a notable increase in its debt. By September 2025, the company's total debt reached US$1.25 billion, a significant rise from US$439.0 million a year prior, resulting in a net debt of US$486.0 million. The company's liabilities were reported to outweigh its cash and near-term receivables by US$725.3 million, which could raise concerns about its financial leverage.
5. Bearish Market Sentiment: Towards the end of 2025, the overall market sentiment for Tempus AI (TEM) turned increasingly bearish. Technical indicators on December 26, 2025, showed a bearish sentiment, with numerous signals indicating a downward trend. The stock experienced consistent declines, falling for several consecutive days and showing a -15.14% drop over a ten-day period by late December 2025. Show more
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -20.1% change in TEM stock from 9/28/2025 to 12/28/2025 was primarily driven by a -30.6% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| 9282025 | 12282025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 78.48 | 62.70 | -20.11% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 951.98 | 1105.26 | 16.10% |
| P/S Multiple | 14.29 | 9.92 | -30.57% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 173.38 | 174.94 | -0.90% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -20.11% |
Market Drivers
9/28/2025 to 12/28/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TEM | -20.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.3% | 56.2% |
| Sector (XLV) | 15.2% | 30.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -5.7% change in TEM stock from 6/29/2025 to 12/28/2025 was primarily driven by a -29.7% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| 6292025 | 12282025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 66.52 | 62.70 | -5.74% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 803.32 | 1105.26 | 37.59% |
| P/S Multiple | 14.12 | 9.92 | -29.71% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 170.51 | 174.94 | -2.60% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -5.81% |
Market Drivers
6/29/2025 to 12/28/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TEM | -5.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.6% | 49.4% |
| Sector (XLV) | 17.0% | 41.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 78.5% change in TEM stock from 12/28/2024 to 12/28/2025 was primarily driven by a 72.6% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| 12282024 | 12282025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 35.12 | 62.70 | 78.53% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 640.44 | 1105.26 | 72.58% |
| P/S Multiple | 9.08 | 9.92 | 9.28% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 165.61 | 174.94 | -5.64% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 77.96% |
Market Drivers
12/28/2024 to 12/28/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TEM | 78.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 17.0% | 52.3% |
| Sector (XLV) | 13.8% | 36.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
12/29/2023 to 12/28/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TEM | ||
| Market (SPY) | 48.4% | 44.9% |
| Sector (XLV) | 17.8% | 33.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TEM Return | - | - | - | - | -16% | 90% | 60% |
| Peers Return | 16% | 38% | -12% | 21% | 26% | 16% | 150% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 18% | 114% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TEM Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 43% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 65% | 42% | 68% | 57% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TEM Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | -38% | -6% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -34% | -5% | -26% | -7% | -9% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HPQ, HPE, IBM, CSCO, AAPL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/26/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
TEM has limited trading history. Below is the Health Care sector ETF (XLV) in its place.
| Event | XLV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -16.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 599 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -28.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 116 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -15.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 326 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -40.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,100 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to HPQ, HPE, IBM, CSCO, AAPL
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -16.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/8/2022. A -16.1% loss requires a 19.1% gain to breakeven.
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We endeavor to unlock the true power of precision medicine by creating Intelligent Diagnostics through the practical application of artificial intelligence, or AI, in healthcare. Intelligent Diagnostics use AI, including generative AI, to make laboratory tests more accurate, tailored, and personal. We make tests intelligent by connecting laboratory results to a patient’s own clinical data, thereby personalizing the results. Our novel insight was realizing that all laboratory test results, genomic or otherwise, could be contextualized for a specific patient based upon that patient’s unique characteristics, and technology could therefore guide therapy selection and treatment decisions to allow each patient to progress on their own unique path. The drugs recommended, the clinical trials explored, the care pathways evaluated, the adverse events considered—all have the potential to be refined and enhanced when test results are connected to a patient’s personal profile, enabling the right patient to be routed to the right therapy at the right time. To accomplish this, we built the Tempus Platform, which comprises both a technology platform to free healthcare data from silos and an operating system to make the resulting data useful. Our proprietary technology has allowed us to amass what we consider to be one of the largest libraries of clinical and molecular oncology data in the world. Our goal is to embed AI, including generative AI, throughout every aspect of diagnostics to enable physicians and researchers to make personalized, data-driven decisions that improve patient care. The ability to deploy AI in precision medicine at scale has only recently become possible. Advances in cloud computing, imaging technologies, large language models, and low-cost molecular profiling, along with the digitization of vast amounts of healthcare data, have created a landscape that we believe is finally ripe for AI. However, despite an increase in the availability of healthcare data, physicians and researchers are largely unable today to leverage this data to improve patient care. The vast majority of healthcare data remains disconnected and lacks harmonization and structure. Traditional diagnostic tests are typically based only on a single data modality, such as a blood- based biomarker or a genomic mutation, and do not connect and integrate other forms of relevant clinical data, such as outcomes, or adverse events, or pathology results, which are essential for many clinical decisions. In order to bring AI to healthcare at scale, we began by rebuilding the foundation of how data flows in and out of healthcare institutions. We established data pipes, going to and from providers, to allow for the free exchange of data between physicians, who interpret data, and diagnostic and life science companies, who provide data. Without this capability, we believe that data could continue to accumulate without impacting patient care. Tempus has built this integrated Platform, and we are now deploying it at scale in the United States in oncology, and other areas, including neuropsychiatry, radiology, and cardiology, with aspirations to eventually be in all major disease areas globally. Our Platform connects multiple stakeholders within the larger healthcare ecosystem, often in near real time, to assemble and integrate the data we collect, thereby providing an opportunity for physicians to make data-driven decisions in the clinic and for researchers to discover and develop therapeutics. Tempus is a technology company focused on healthcare that straddles two converging worlds. We strive to combine deep healthcare expertise, providing next-generation diagnostics across multiple disease areas, with leading technology capabilities, harnessing the power of data and analytics to help personalize medicine. Unlike traditional diagnostic labs, we can incorporate unique patient information, such as clinical, molecular, and imaging data, with the goal of making our tests more intelligent and our results more insightful. Unlike other technology companies, we are deeply rooted in clinical care delivery as one of the largest sequencers of patients in the United States. Straddling both worlds is advantageous as we believe Intelligent Diagnostics represent the future of precision medicine, informing more personalized and data-driven therapy selection and development. Our Platform includes proprietary software and dedicated data pipelines that create a network of healthcare institutions through approximately 450 unique data connections, many of which supply us with complex multimodal data in near real time, across more than 2,000 healthcare institutions that order our products and services. Healthcare institutions supply us with this data in our capacity as a covered entity (for example, when we provide Next Generation Sequencing, or NGS, services on behalf of a patient), or as a business associate (for example, when we provide clinical trial matching services or data de-identification and structuring services). In addition to the data we receive in these capacities, we currently have a limited number of paid license agreements through which we acquire de-identified data directly from healthcare associations or institutions, and in certain circumstances we cover the actual direct costs associated with the technical integrations needed to create a data connection. We then integrate this data into a unified multimodal database through which we offer numerous analytical and decision support capabilities to our customers. We establish dedicated and integrated data connections with healthcare institutions to enhance the information we provide in our clinical reports, to increase the effectiveness of our clinical trial matching services, and to enable our AI Applications product line, which we believe has the ability to transform healthcare. We have launched a suite of different products derived from our Platform, which have gained significant traction over the past five years. To date, our offerings have been used by approximately 95% of the largest public pharmaceutical companies based on 2023 revenue, and our clinical NGS volume in oncology rose from approximately 31,000 samples in 2018 to approximately 288,000 samples in 2023. Through March 31, 2024, our offerings have been used by more than 7,000 physicians across hundreds of provider networks, including more than 65% of all academic medical centers in the United States. Our database of multimodal, de-identified records has grown to be more than 50 times the size of The Cancer Genome Atlas, the largest public genomic dataset that we know of in oncology. We also now have more than 200 petabytes of data in our cloud environment. Between our sequencing and data collection efforts, we are connected in some way to more than 50% of all oncologists practicing in the United States. Our access to broad and diverse data serves as the basis for our ability to train generative AI models, and we believe our relationships with healthcare institutions provide us with proprietary data to deliver on the promise of AI in healthcare. We originally set out to build a sustainable business model in oncology as our first proof of concept. To date, we have focused primarily on establishing and growing our oncology business, which represents the majority of both the data we have amassed and our revenue. Even though our cancer business was at an early stage, we next expanded into neuropsychiatry, as we believed our model was extensible across disease areas. Having gained early traction in depression, we then expanded into the radiology and cardiology categories. Each time we enter a new disease area we look to expand upon the model we deployed in oncology by developing Intelligent Diagnostics connected to clinical data, and by leveraging large amounts of de-identified data to advance patient care and accelerate drug discovery and development. Once we obtain sufficient data, which we can leverage as a proprietary training data set for generative AI applications, we expect to deploy our AI and machine learning capabilities to build algorithmic diagnostics at scale across diseases. We were founded by Eric Lefkofsky, originally formed under the name Bioin LLC in Delaware in August 2015 and we converted to a Delaware corporation in September 2015 under the name Bioin Inc. We changed our name to Tempus Health, Inc. later in 2015, to Tempus Labs, Inc. in 2016 and in 2023, we changed our name to Tempus AI, Inc. Our principal executive offices are located at 600 West Chicago Avenue, Suite 510 Chicago, Illinois.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Tempus AI (TEM):
- Palantir for precision medicine. (Highlights its role in integrating vast, disparate data and applying AI for complex problem-solving in healthcare.)
- An AI-powered Google for medical insights. (Emphasizes its use of AI to organize and provide actionable intelligence from massive medical datasets.)
- A supercharged 23andMe for doctors and researchers. (Points to its use of genomic data combined with comprehensive clinical data and AI, but for professional medical decision-making rather than consumer-facing insights.)
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Genomic Sequencing & Profiling: Tempus provides comprehensive genomic sequencing and molecular profiling services for cancer and other diseases to identify actionable biomarkers.
- AI-Powered Precision Medicine Platform: This platform integrates clinical and molecular data, leveraging AI to offer physicians personalized insights and treatment recommendations for patients.
- Real-World Data & Analytics: Tempus offers de-identified real-world data and advanced analytics solutions to biopharmaceutical companies and researchers for drug discovery and development.
- Clinical Trial Matching: Utilizing its extensive data and AI, Tempus identifies and matches eligible patients with relevant clinical trials to accelerate research.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Tempus AI (symbol: TEM) primarily sells its services and technology to other companies (a Business-to-Business, or B2B, model). While Tempus AI does not publicly disclose the specific names of individual companies that represent its "major customers" in its SEC filings, its customer base can be categorized into the following groups:
- Healthcare Providers: This category includes hospitals, large health systems, and academic medical centers. These organizations utilize Tempus's platforms for genomic sequencing, molecular and clinical data analysis, and AI-powered insights to guide patient care and treatment decisions.
- Life Sciences Companies: This encompasses pharmaceutical companies and biotechnology companies. Tempus provides them with access to its vast real-world data (RWD) sets, advanced analytical services, and AI models. This supports drug discovery and development, clinical trial optimization, identification of biomarkers, and market access strategies. While specific names of individual customer companies are not disclosed, this category would include numerous public and private entities within the biopharmaceutical sector.
- Research Institutions: Academic institutions and other research organizations leverage Tempus's data and analytical capabilities for scientific research and advancements in precision medicine.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Google Cloud (GOOGL)
- Illumina (ILMN)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Eric Lefkofsky Founder & CEO
Eric Lefkofsky founded Tempus AI in 2015 and has served as its Chief Executive Officer and a board member since its inception. Prior to Tempus AI, Mr. Lefkofsky co-founded Groupon, Inc. in 2008, where he held roles including Executive Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and Chairman of the board of directors. He also co-founded Lightbank LLC, a private venture capital firm. His entrepreneurial ventures include co-founding Echo Global Logistics, InnerWorkings, and Mediaocean. Early in his career, he co-founded Starbelly, which was sold to Halo Industries. Groupon later raised significant private funding, with a portion paid out to employees and investors, including Mr. Lefkofsky.
James Rogers Chief Financial Officer
James Rogers joined Tempus AI in 2017 as the company's first finance hire when it was pre-revenue, building out the finance function. He became Chief Financial Officer in 2021 and was instrumental in steering the company public. Earlier in his career, Mr. Rogers began in audit at Ernst & Young and later advanced to head of FP&A for North America at Groupon.
Ryan Fukushima Chief Operating Officer
Ryan Fukushima joined Tempus AI as the company's first employee in 2015, shortly after Eric Lefkofsky founded the company. He currently serves as the Chief Operating Officer.
Shane Colley Chief Technology Officer
Shane Colley is the Chief Technology Officer at Tempus AI.
Stacey Kraft Chief People Officer
Stacey Kraft holds the position of Chief People Officer at Tempus AI.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key risks to Tempus AI's business:1. Financial Health and Path to Profitability
Tempus AI faces significant challenges regarding its financial health and its path to profitability. The company has shown a deteriorating trend in financial ratios, including a negative net margin and a decrease in the current ratio, indicating declining liquidity and increasing financial risk. Tempus AI has incurred substantial net losses, reaching -$706 million in 2024, driven by escalating operating expenses that soared to $1 billion. Despite strong revenue growth, the company remains a loss-making business with negative free cash flow, and analysts have expressed concerns about its ability to convert EBITDA into free cash flow. The company's balance sheet is characterized by significant net debt, and there is a potential need for additional capital.2. Reimbursement and Regulatory Challenges for AI-driven Diagnostics
A significant structural hurdle for Tempus AI's business is the absence of established reimbursement frameworks for its advanced AI-driven diagnostic algorithms within the U.S. healthcare system. This issue means that while the company's AI business shows promise, it is unlikely to generate substantial revenues in the near term until payers adopt consistent reimbursement policies. Furthermore, regulatory scrutiny from organizations such as the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) on reimbursement pathways and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on approval timelines for AI-driven diagnostics threatens the scalability of Tempus AI's data licensing model and could undermine its projected market opportunities. The company's average reimbursement per test in the third quarter was approximately $1,600, which is below that of its peers.3. Intense Competition and the Need to Monetize AI Effectively
Tempus AI operates in a highly competitive market, particularly in genomics and oncology testing, facing pressure from established players and emerging technologies. To maintain its leadership in AI and data, the company may need to increase its spending on research and development, which could further erode earnings. A crucial risk for Tempus AI is the necessity of achieving tangible monetization for its AI-enabled diagnostics. Currently, revenue generated specifically from AI applications is a very small portion of the total revenue, representing less than 1.5% in recent periods. The bullish narrative surrounding Tempus AI largely depends on its ability to effectively monetize these AI diagnostics and gain widespread recognition for its products.AI Analysis | Feedback
Major technology companies (e.g., Google, Microsoft) with vast resources in AI and cloud computing are increasingly investing in and expanding into healthcare data analytics and AI-driven precision medicine platforms. These companies possess the capability to build comprehensive multimodal data aggregation and analysis platforms that could directly compete with or even surpass Tempus AI's offerings, leveraging their scalable infrastructure, advanced AI research, and existing healthcare partnerships.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The estimated addressable market for Tempus AI's main products and services is approximately $200 billion. While the specific geographic region for this valuation is not explicitly stated as "U.S." or "global" in the provided information, Tempus AI's significant operational footprint and partnerships are largely concentrated within the United States.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Tempus AI (TEM) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives and market trends:
- Growth in Genomic Testing Volumes and Average Selling Prices (ASPs): Tempus AI anticipates continued strong performance in its genomic testing segment, particularly in oncology and hereditary testing. In Q3 2025, oncology testing revenue increased by 31.7% year-over-year, driven by a 27% rise in volume, and hereditary testing saw a 32.8% increase in revenue with 37% volume growth. The company expects to sustain a 25% growth rate in oncology over the next three years. Analysts project that average selling prices will also increase as the product mix shifts towards higher-priced tests, such as the xT CDx and the xF liquid biopsy assay.
- Expansion of Data and Services (Insights) Business: The company's data licensing or "insights" business demonstrated robust growth, with a 38% increase in the third quarter of 2025 and an additional $150 million in total contract value. Tempus AI is actively securing additional contracts with pharmaceutical companies for its data and services, with the total remaining contract value for data services exceeding $1 billion as of April 30, 2025. These strategic partnerships, including a notable $200 million, three-year agreement with AstraZeneca and Pathos, are central to driving growth and product development.
- Launch and Reimbursement of New Products and Technologies: Tempus AI expects to benefit from the planned regulatory filing of its liquid biopsy xF later this year, which is projected to provide additional tailwind in both unit volume and revenue for that business. The expansion of commercial payor coverage for tests like xF and xT CDx is also anticipated, with Advanced Diagnostic Laboratory Test (ADLT) status potentially offering upside in reimbursement levels. The company has also received FDA clearance for several AI-powered medical devices and introduced Tempus xM for treatment and response monitoring.
- Strategic Acquisitions and AI-Powered Solutions: The acquisition of Paige, an AI company specializing in digital pathology, is a strategic move to expand Tempus AI's operations and is expected to contribute to future revenue growth through expanded offerings and market reach. Tempus AI is focused on embedding AI, including generative AI, across all aspects of diagnostics to enable personalized, data-driven decisions and improve patient care. This includes the rollout of platforms like Tempus Next care pathway intelligence, designed to provide AI-driven decision support in oncology.
- Increased Market Penetration in Precision Medicine and Oncology: Tempus AI is strategically positioned at the intersection of precision medicine, oncology, and artificial intelligence, which are rapidly expanding markets. The company aims to grow its customer base by increasing penetration among pharmaceutical companies, healthcare providers, and research institutions, leveraging its extensive library of clinical and molecular oncology data.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- Tempus AI engaged in share buyback activities in early 2025, including acquiring 311,988 ordinary shares at 1.70 pounds each and 200,000 shares at 1.67 pounds per share in January 2025.
- Over recent weeks in early 2025, Tempus AI continued its share buyback strategy by acquiring an additional 170,447 shares at 1.65 pounds each.
- A strategic share buyback action has reduced outstanding shares, aiming to solidify market position and hint at financial optimism.
Share Issuance
- Tempus AI completed its Initial Public Offering (IPO) on June 14, 2024, issuing 11.1 million shares of Class A common stock at $37.00 per share, which raised approximately $410.7 million in gross proceeds.
- The company issued $750 million of 0.75% convertible senior notes in the second quarter of 2025.
- Tempus had previously confidentially filed for an S-1 registration on September 1, 2021, and officially filed its S-1 registration statement in May 2024.
Inbound Investments
- Prior to its IPO, Tempus AI accumulated over $1 billion in private funding across multiple rounds between 2015 and 2023.
- In 2020, Google's venture arm contributed $200 million as part of a funding round that valued Tempus at $8.1 billion, intended to support expansion into infectious disease, depression, and cardiology.
- In February 2025, Ares Management provided a $300 million debt financing package, and a strategic partnership with AstraZeneca and Pathos in Q1 2025 resulted in Tempus receiving $200 million in data licensing and model development fees over three years.
Outbound Investments
- In February 2022, Tempus AI acquired Highline Sciences (also referred to as Highline Consulting), a clinical contract research organization focused on oncology.
- The company completed the acquisition of Ambry Genetics, a genetic testing company, in February 2025, following its announcement in November 2024 for $600 million (paid with $375 million in cash and $225 million in stock).
- Tempus AI acquired Deep 6 AI, an AI-driven clinical trial recruitment platform, in March 2025, and Paige, an AI company specializing in digital pathology, in August 2025 for $81.25 million, predominantly paid in common stock.
Capital Expenditures
- Tempus AI's annual capital expenditures were $18.377 million in 2022, $34.608 million in 2023, and $22.121 million in 2024.
- For the first and second quarters of 2025, capital expenditures were $3.372 million and $9.511 million, respectively.
- The capital expenditures are primarily focused on ongoing investment in infrastructure and product development to support its AI-driven solutions and genomics business.
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| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 21.4% | 21.4% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.4% | -7.4% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 18.0% | 18.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.9% | 3.9% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.2% | 12.2% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Tempus AI
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 70.43 |
| Mkt Cap | 158.8 |
| Rev LTM | 56,496 |
| Op Inc LTM | 7,584 |
| FCF LTM | 7,327 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 7,366 |
| CFO LTM | 8,590 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 8,697 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 12.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 11.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 14.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 11.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.1% |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $62.70 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 11.0 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/14/2024 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -39.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $75.91 | $57.10 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | -17.4% | 9.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 61.9% | 95.4% |
| Downside Capture | 433.15 | 334.40 |
| Upside Capture | 242.37 | 345.38 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 56.2% | 52.4% |
TEM Betas & Captures as of 11/30/2025
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 3.49 | 2.74 | 2.76 | 2.80 | 2.58 | 0.70 |
| Up Beta | 3.55 | 1.84 | 2.72 | 2.73 | 2.25 | -0.60 |
| Down Beta | 4.04 | 1.47 | 1.72 | 2.01 | 1.83 | 0.43 |
| Up Capture | 261% | 356% | 342% | 467% | 1521% | 921% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 26 | 39 | 74 | 142 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 33 | 68 | 130 | 191 |
| Down Capture | 363% | 324% | 299% | 253% | 163% | 110% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 16 | 24 | 52 | 107 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 21 | 30 | 57 | 118 | 173 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
nullBased On 5-Year Data
nullBased On 10-Year Data
nullReturns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/4/2025 | -2.6% | -15.3% | -9.3% |
| 8/8/2025 | 3.6% | 21.9% | 36.6% |
| 5/6/2025 | 12.6% | 32.0% | 12.4% |
| 1/13/2025 | -13.8% | -6.3% | 89.8% |
| 11/4/2024 | -10.1% | 56.8% | 17.2% |
| 8/6/2024 | -4.5% | 4.9% | 36.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| # Negative | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| Median Positive | 8.1% | 27.0% | 36.6% |
| Median Negative | -7.3% | -10.8% | -9.3% |
| Max Positive | 12.6% | 56.8% | 89.8% |
| Max Negative | -13.8% | -15.3% | -9.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q (09/30/2025) |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/08/2025 | 10-Q (06/30/2025) |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/06/2025 | 10-Q (03/31/2025) |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/24/2025 | 10-K (12/31/2024) |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/04/2024 | 10-Q (09/30/2024) |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q (06/30/2024) |
| 03/31/2024 | 06/17/2024 | 424B4 (03/31/2024) |
| 09/30/2023 | 12/15/2023 | DRS/A (09/30/2023) |
| 09/30/2022 | 01/17/2023 | DRS/A (09/30/2022) |
| 09/30/2021 | 12/03/2021 | DRS/A (09/30/2021) |
| 06/30/2021 | 10/28/2021 | DRS/A (06/30/2021) |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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