Greenfire Resources (GFR)
Market Price (8/24/2026): $6.46 | Market Cap: $810.3 MilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Greenfire Resources (GFR)
Market Price (8/24/2026): $6.46Market Cap: $810.3 MilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include North American Energy Resources. Themes include Oil Sands Production, and Heavy Oil Extraction. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -15%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -51% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -18%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.5% Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -10.0% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -9.0% Key risksGFR key risks include [1] significant production declines from operational failures, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include North American Energy Resources. Themes include Oil Sands Production, and Heavy Oil Extraction. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -15%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -51% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -18%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.5% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -10.0% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -9.0% |
| Key risksGFR key risks include [1] significant production declines from operational failures, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Greenfire Resources (GFR) stock has gained about 10% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strategic Acquisition of Connacher Oil and Gas Limited.
Greenfire Resources announced its intention to acquire Connacher Oil and Gas Limited for C$1.277 billion in cash on July 13, 2026, and subsequently closed the acquisition on August 5, 2026. This strategic move is expected to significantly increase Greenfire's production, with current production (inclusive of the acquisition) rising to approximately 34,000 barrels per day (bbls/d) and full-year 2026 guidance set between 21,500 and 23,500 bbls/d. This expansion fueled investor confidence in the company's growth trajectory.
2. Successful Financing of the Acquisition.
To fund the Connacher acquisition, Greenfire Resources announced a rights offering on July 13, 2026, targeting gross proceeds of at least $575 million to repay a bridge loan facility. The financing was bolstered by a standby purchase commitment of at least $575 million from Waterous Energy Fund, a major shareholder, which significantly de-risked the funding process. Furthermore, the Senior Credit Facility borrowing base was increased to $1.0 billion on August 5, 2026, following the acquisition, providing additional financial flexibility.
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Greenfire Resources (GFR) stock has gained about 10% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strategic Acquisition of Connacher Oil and Gas Limited.
Greenfire Resources announced its intention to acquire Connacher Oil and Gas Limited for C$1.277 billion in cash on July 13, 2026, and subsequently closed the acquisition on August 5, 2026. This strategic move is expected to significantly increase Greenfire's production, with current production (inclusive of the acquisition) rising to approximately 34,000 barrels per day (bbls/d) and full-year 2026 guidance set between 21,500 and 23,500 bbls/d. This expansion fueled investor confidence in the company's growth trajectory.
2. Successful Financing of the Acquisition.
To fund the Connacher acquisition, Greenfire Resources announced a rights offering on July 13, 2026, targeting gross proceeds of at least $575 million to repay a bridge loan facility. The financing was bolstered by a standby purchase commitment of at least $575 million from Waterous Energy Fund, a major shareholder, which significantly de-risked the funding process. Furthermore, the Senior Credit Facility borrowing base was increased to $1.0 billion on August 5, 2026, following the acquisition, providing additional financial flexibility.
3. Positive Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings Performance and Analyst Upgrades.
Greenfire Resources reported its fiscal Q2 2026 results (for the period ending June 30, 2026) on August 5, 2026, with an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.31, significantly exceeding analysts' consensus estimate of $0.01. This positive earnings beat was accompanied by several analyst upgrades; TD Securities upgraded GFR to a "strong-buy" rating on July 23, 2026, and BMO Capital Markets upgraded the stock from "market perform" to "outperform" with an adjusted price target of $11.50 (up from $6.33) on August 5, 2026. These favorable developments contributed to strong investor sentiment and the stock's upward movement.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 12.3% change in GFR stock from 4/30/2026 to 8/23/2026 was primarily driven by a 167.0% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 8232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 5.74 | 6.45 | 12.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 603 | 602 | -0.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.5 | 1.3 | 167.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 53 | 125 | -57.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 12.3% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 8/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GFR | 12.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 6.5% | -24.6% |
| Sector (XLE) | 6.7% | 69.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 38.7% change in GFR stock from 1/31/2026 to 8/23/2026 was primarily driven by a 147.9% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 8232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 4.65 | 6.45 | 38.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 678 | 602 | -11.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.5 | 1.3 | 147.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 79 | 125 | -37.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 38.7% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 8/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GFR | 38.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.0% | -22.6% |
| Sector (XLE) | 25.5% | 65.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 84.6% change in GFR stock from 7/31/2025 to 8/23/2026 was primarily driven by a 343.6% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 8232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 3.49 | 6.45 | 84.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 806 | 602 | -25.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.3 | 1.3 | 343.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 70 | 125 | -44.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 84.6% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 8/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GFR | 84.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 22.2% | -11.2% |
| Sector (XLE) | 49.4% | 52.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
nullnull
Market Drivers
7/31/2023 to 8/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GFR | ||
| Market (SPY) | 73.2% | 16.5% |
| Sector (XLE) | 59.0% | 43.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| GFR Return | - | - | -29% | 45% | -24% | 57% | 22% |
| Peers Return | 68% | 34% | 116% | -0% | 27% | 63% | 902% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 103% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| GFR Win Rate | - | - | 25% | 67% | 50% | 88% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 48% | 55% | 52% | 70% | 72% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| GFR Max Drawdown | - | - | - | -24% | -46% | -21% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -22% | -28% | -24% | -28% | -28% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: SU, CNQ, CVE, IMO, BTE.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 8/21/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | GFR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -39.9% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 66.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 278 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -13.5% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.6% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 18 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -28.8% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.4% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 272 days | 24 days |
In The Past
Greenfire Resources's stock fell -39.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 66.5% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | GFR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -39.9% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 66.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 278 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -28.8% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.4% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 272 days | 24 days |
In The Past
Greenfire Resources's stock fell -39.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 66.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Greenfire Resources (GFR)
Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR) is a Canadian energy company primarily engaged in the development, exploration, and operation of oil and gas properties. The company focuses specifically on the vast Athabasca oil sands region in Alberta, Western Canada, where it holds and operates Tier-1 oil sands assets.
The core of Greenfire's operations involves the recovery of bitumen, a heavy and viscous form of petroleum. To extract this resource, the company utilizes advanced thermal oil recovery processes, specifically Steam-Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) technology. This method allows for the efficient and responsible extraction of bitumen from its deep oil sands deposits.
Greenfire's main product is the raw bitumen it extracts, which serves as a crucial input for the downstream oil industry. Its primary customers are likely refineries and other processing facilities that convert the raw bitumen into various usable petroleum products, serving the broader North American and global energy markets.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Greenfire Resources (GFR):
- Like a specialized Suncor Energy focused on SAGD bitumen extraction.
- Think of them as a focused Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) for underground oil sands recovery.
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- Bitumen: A heavy, viscous form of petroleum extracted from the Athabasca oil sands using steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) technology.
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Greenfire Resources (GFR) operates in the upstream oil and gas sector, extracting bitumen from the Athabasca oil sands. As such, its product is a raw commodity that requires further processing. Therefore, the company primarily sells to other businesses rather than directly to individuals.
Major customers for companies like Greenfire Resources are typically large energy companies, refineries, and commodity trading firms. While specific customer names are generally not disclosed for commodity producers, the categories of companies that would purchase bitumen from Greenfire Resources include:
- Refining companies that operate facilities capable of processing heavy oil and bitumen into various petroleum products.
- Integrated oil and gas companies with refining capabilities that purchase crude oil and bitumen from producers to supply their own downstream operations.
- Energy trading firms that buy and sell crude oil and bitumen on the global market, often acting as intermediaries to refiners.
Given the commodity nature of bitumen, Greenfire Resources sells into a market where buyers are typically other large industrial players in the energy sector.
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Colin Germaniuk
President
Colin Germaniuk was appointed President of Greenfire Resources in February 2025. He brings extensive experience in thermal oil operations, having previously spent eight years at Serafina Energy Ltd., a private thermal oil company. At Serafina, he was an early employee and a member of the executive management team, playing a critical role in growing thermal oil production from zero to approximately 40,000 barrels per day. His roles at Serafina included Vice President of Engineering and Health, Safety, and Environment (HSE), and before that, Vice President, Subsurface. Mr. Germaniuk's background also includes management positions at Connacher Oil and Gas Limited and Canadian Natural Resources Limited, both focused on thermal oil operations.
Travis Belak
Vice President, Finance
Travis Belak was appointed Vice President, Finance for Greenfire Resources in August 2025, succeeding Tony Kraljic as Chief Financial Officer. He has approximately 15 years of experience in upstream oil and gas financial reporting, corporate planning, tax, and treasury. Prior to joining Greenfire, Mr. Belak served as the Corporate Controller at HWN Energy.
Adam Waterous
Executive Chairman
Adam Waterous was appointed Executive Chairman of Greenfire Resources in February 2025. In this role, he provides strategic oversight and guidance at the highest level, leading the board of directors and advising on key decisions. Mr. Waterous possesses extensive industry experience and a deep understanding of the energy sector.
Jonathan Kanderka
Chief Operating Officer
Jonathan Kanderka continues in his role as Chief Operating Officer at Greenfire Resources. With a background in engineering, Mr. Kanderka is responsible for the day-to-day management of the company's operational activities, ensuring efficiency, safety, and productivity. He is instrumental in implementing operational strategies, managing resources, and driving continuous improvement across all operational functions.
Charles Kraus
Corporate Secretary
Charles Kraus serves as the Corporate Secretary of Greenfire Resources. He is a Canadian and United States corporate lawyer with 25 years of experience in governance, capital markets, and commercial matters. Mr. Kraus has previously served as a senior executive, general counsel, and corporate secretary for three different dual-listed public companies operating in the energy and construction industries.
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Here are the key risks to Greenfire Resources:
- Operational Challenges and Production Issues: Greenfire Resources faces direct operational risks, as evidenced by its recent decision to lower 2026 production guidance. This revision was primarily due to unplanned well downtime at its Expansion Asset during the first quarter of 2026 and steeper-than-anticipated base production decline rates. The company has also experienced past technical issues, including an unexpected boiler outage and sulphur dioxide emissions in excess of regulatory allowances. Operating with Steam-Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) technology in remote, cold weather conditions, such as those in Alberta, presents inherent challenges, including the risk of equipment failure due to high temperatures and pressures, and the significant impact of downtime.
- Volatility in Commodity Prices: As an oil and gas producer, Greenfire Resources is highly susceptible to fluctuations in global oil prices. This is a significant sector-specific risk that directly impacts the company's revenue and profitability. SAGD projects, in particular, involve high initial investment, making their economic viability sensitive to product prices. While Greenfire employs risk management strategies to mitigate the impact of commodity price volatility on its cash flows, this remains a fundamental business risk.
- Regulatory and Environmental Risks: Greenfire operates in Alberta's oil sands, an industry subject to extensive and evolving environmental regulations and public scrutiny. Key regulatory areas include greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, water usage, and the management and reclamation of tailings ponds. There is an ongoing risk of increased regulatory burdens, potential liabilities related to environmental clean-up, and the long-term uncertainty surrounding the "carbon constrained world" and the environmental impact of oil sands production. Past issues with sulphur dioxide emissions highlight the company's exposure to regulatory compliance risks.
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The accelerating global energy transition, specifically the rapid adoption of renewable energy sources and electric vehicles, threatening long-term demand for crude oil and increasing the regulatory and investment pressures on high-carbon intensity oil sands production.
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Greenfire Resources Ltd. (NYSE: GFR) operates in the Athabasca oil sands region of Alberta, Canada, focusing on the development, exploration, and operation of oil and gas properties, specifically the recovery of bitumen using steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) extraction technology.
The addressable market for Greenfire Resources' primary product, bitumen/heavy oil from oil sands, is primarily within Alberta, Canada, which dominates global oil sands production.
- The Alberta oil sands production averaged 3.55 million barrels per day (MMb/d) between July and October 2025, and this output is projected to continue growing in 2026.
- In 2024, bitumen comprised 50% of Alberta's total hydrocarbon production.
- The global oil sands market size was projected at USD 120,907.21 million in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 138,244.09 million by 2033, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.5%. Alberta accounts for over 70% of the global oil sands production capacity.
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Greenfire Resources Ltd. (NYSE and TSX: GFR) is strategically positioned to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through a combination of production capacity expansions, advanced drilling techniques, operational efficiencies, and improved market access for its heavy oil products.
Here are the key drivers of Greenfire Resources' future revenue growth:
- Expansion of Production Capacity: Greenfire Resources plans to significantly increase its bitumen production capacity. This includes a potential brownfield expansion of the existing central processing facility at the Expansion Asset to add 11,300 barrels per day (bbls/d) (net to Greenfire). Additionally, the company intends to relocate and commission the recently acquired McKay central processing facility (CPF) at the Expansion Asset, which is anticipated to add another 11,300 bbls/d (net to Greenfire) of production capacity. At the Demo Asset, Greenfire aims to increase capacity by 2,500 bbls/d to 10,000 bbls/d by restarting the processing train at Plant 1. Overall, these initiatives are expected to increase net production capacity by 74% to approximately 58,800 bbls/d.
- Advanced Drilling Techniques and Infill Drilling Programs: The company is implementing a modernized SAGD drilling strategy that includes drilling extended-reach and curved SAGD wells. This approach is designed to support higher production, enhance reservoir access, and improve bitumen recovery rates. Greenfire also plans to consolidate multiple well pads into a single "Super Pad" design with centralized infrastructure to increase production while reducing costs. The continuation of redevelopment infill ("Refill") drilling programs at both the Demo and Expansion Assets, including new extended-reach wells, is also expected to contribute to increased production.
- Operational Optimizations and Reservoir Management: Greenfire is focused on enhancing the productivity of its existing assets through various operational optimizations. This includes sustained non-condensable gas (NCG) co-injection activities and debottlenecking initiatives at the Expansion Asset, which have been successful in increasing reservoir pressure and well productivity. The utilization of existing steam and blend processing equipment for incremental production capacity at the Demo Asset, without requiring significant additional infrastructure capital, also contributes to efficient growth.
- Improved Market Access and Favorable Heavy Oil Pricing: The operationalization of the Trans Mountain Expansion Project (TMX) in May 2024 is a significant driver. This project provides approximately 16,600 thousand barrels per day of additional pipeline egress from Western Canada, offering new access to international markets. As Greenfire's production is 100% linked to Western Canadian Select (WCS) or Canadian heavy oil benchmarks, this improved market access is anticipated to reduce WCS differential volatility and support higher realized prices for its bitumen, leading to increased revenue.
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Share Issuance
- In December 2025, Greenfire Resources completed an oversubscribed rights offering, issuing approximately 55.1 million common shares for gross proceeds of about C$298.5 million (US$298.7 million).
- The shares were issued at a price of C$5.44 or US$3.85 per common share.
Inbound Investments
- In November 2025, Waterous Energy Fund (WEF) acquired 8,703,479 common shares for over C$57 million and an additional 1,926,055 common shares for approximately C$12.8 million through a private transaction.
- Following these November 2025 purchases, Waterous Energy Fund owned a 71.1% stake in Greenfire Resources.
- In December 2024, Waterous Energy Fund increased its interest in Greenfire to 56.5% of the issued and outstanding common shares.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for 2025 totaled $111.8 million, which was below the initial outlook of $130 million.
- Approximately $9 million of planned 2025 capital spending for the Pad 7 program at the Expansion Asset was deferred into early 2026.
- For 2026, Greenfire initially guided for $180 million in capital expenditures.
Peer Outperformance in Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
null| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing | 11 | 107.4% | 119.3% | 369.1% | PBF 771% · MPC 596% · VLO 524% |
| Integrated Oil & Gas | 7 | 44.4% | 71.3% | 255.4% | IMO 499% · SU 355% · CVE 350% |
| Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation | 18 | 31.5% | 117.7% | 238.7% | INSW 866% · LPG 780% · TRGP 657% |
| Coal & Consumable Fuels | 14 | 34.7% | 61.3% | 186.9% | EU 1104% · LEU 639% · CCJ 506% |
| Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ← | 51 | 27.0% | 8.7% | 130.1% | KGEI 8600% · OBE 7231% · EP 3173% |
| Oil & Gas Equipment & Services | 34 | 57.6% | 34.2% | 120.6% | FTI 1098% · TDW 801% · SEI 760% |
| Oil & Gas Drilling | 7 | 78.5% | 3.2% | 103.9% | VAL 231% · PDS 189% · NE 143% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 42.16 |
| Mkt Cap | 64.0 |
| Rev LTM | 50,935 |
| Op Inc LTM | 7,278 |
| FCF LTM | 6,254 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 5,094 |
| CFO LTM | 9,766 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 8,464 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 48.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 11.5% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 26.4% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 12.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 18.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 14.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 4.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 23.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 22.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 14.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.9% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $6.45 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.8 | |
| First Trading Date | 09/21/2023 | |
| Distance from 52W High | 0.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $5.27 | $4.87 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 22.5% | 32.5% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 50.9% | 50.1% |
| Downside Capture | -199.80 | -113.41 |
| Upside Capture | -67.84 | -23.56 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -19.5% | -11.9% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -1.13 | -0.19 | -0.63 | -0.65 | -0.12 | 0.08 |
| Up Beta | 1.64 | -0.41 | -1.03 | -1.06 | -0.41 | -0.27 |
| Down Beta | -1.04 | 0.50 | 0.27 | 0.19 | 0.18 | -0.04 |
| Up Capture | -98% | 2% | -73% | -38% | 11% | 12% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 35 | 67 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 22 | 31 | 63 | 123 | 338 |
| Down Capture | -323% | -82% | -92% | -147% | -73% | 69% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 28 | 59 | 114 | 326 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 19 | 30 | 59 | 122 | 353 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with GFR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GFR | 98.0% | 50.6% | 1.51 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 52.1% | 21.7% | 1.84 | 52.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 21.1% | 12.9% | 1.22 | -12.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 37.5% | 28.8% | 1.10 | 0.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 43.2% | 20.2% | 1.66 | 48.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.9% | 13.8% | 0.64 | -12.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -31.6% | 44.1% | -0.73 | -0.5% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with GFR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GFR | 4.3% | 50.8% | 0.32 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 25.1% | 25.8% | 0.86 | 43.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.9% | 17.2% | 0.57 | 16.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.6% | 18.6% | 0.90 | 7.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.4% | 19.6% | 0.41 | 38.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.3% | 18.9% | 0.02 | 7.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 10.4% | 52.8% | 0.38 | 0.7% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with GFR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GFR | 2.1% | 50.8% | 0.32 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 10.8% | 29.6% | 0.40 | 43.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.2% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 16.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.7% | 16.2% | 0.64 | 7.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.0% | 18.0% | 0.36 | 38.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.0% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 7.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.1% | 66.1% | 1.03 | 0.7% |
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Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/3/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | |||
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | |||
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/05/2026 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/13/2026 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/20/2025 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/15/2024 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/15/2024 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/16/2024 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/27/2024 | 20-F |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/15/2023 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2022 | 08/14/2023 | 424B3 |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/05/2026 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/13/2026 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/20/2025 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/15/2024 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/15/2024 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/16/2024 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/27/2024 | 20-F |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/15/2023 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2022 | 08/14/2023 | 424B3 |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Aug 24, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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