GCM Grosvenor (GCMG)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $11.02 | Market Cap: $590.6 MilSector: Financials | Industry: Asset Management & Custody Banks
GCM Grosvenor (GCMG)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $11.02Market Cap: $590.6 MilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Asset Management & Custody Banks
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.8%, FCF Yield is 29% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -3.9%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -26% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 21% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Equity, Private Credit, and Venture Capital. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.8%, FCF Yield is 29% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 21% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Equity, Private Credit, and Venture Capital. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -3.9%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -26% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
GCMG Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Between approximately August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, GCM Grosvenor (GCMG) experienced a stock price decline, with the stock notably falling by 13.30% over the six months leading up to December 3, 2025. This downturn was influenced by several key factors:
**1. Negative Return on Equity (ROE):** The company reported a significantly negative Return on Equity (ROE), with figures such as -246.80%. A negative ROE indicates that the company is not effectively generating profit from the equity invested by its shareholders, which is a significant concern for investors.
**2. Unsustainable Dividend Payout Ratio:** GCM Grosvenor's dividend payout ratio was reported at a very high level, specifically 157% or 157.14%. Such a high ratio raises questions about the long-term sustainability of the company's dividend payments, as payout ratios exceeding 75% are generally considered undesirable.
**3. Significant Insider Selling:** Negative insider sentiment was observed, marked by substantial open-market selling by key executives. High-impact open-market transactions revealed insider selling totaling $41.7 million over the year leading up to December 1, 2025. This level of selling from company insiders often suggests a lack of confidence in the company's future prospects.
**4. Negative Analyst Outlook and Expected Underperformance:** Despite reporting third-quarter 2025 earnings that surpassed consensus estimates, GCM Grosvenor faced an unfavorable trend in earnings estimate revisions. This led to a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) rating for the stock, indicating that it was expected to underperform the broader market in the near future.
**5. Hit New 52-Week Lows:** Within the approximate timeframe, GCMG's shares reached new 52-week lows, trading as low as $10.23 by November 25, 2025. This sustained downward movement underscored a negative market sentiment and a general decline in the stock's valuation.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| GCMG Return | 30% | -19% | -24% | 25% | 43% | -9% | 30% |
| Peers Return | 18% | 14% | -11% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 33% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| GCMG Win Rate | 50% | 33% | 58% | 67% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 40% | 28% | 45% | 38% | 36% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| GCMG Max Drawdown | -7% | -25% | -37% | -9% | -7% | -13% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -31% | -10% | -25% | -9% | -9% | -13% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTS, SLRC, DHIL, GEG, FGNX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | GCMG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -52.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 111.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 966 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -15.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 10 days | 148 days |
Compare to VRTS, SLRC, DHIL, GEG, FGNX
In The Past
GCM Grosvenor's stock fell -52.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/26/2021. A -52.6% loss requires a 111.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to GCMG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for GCM Grosvenor
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 13.52 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.6 |
| Rev LTM | 126 |
| Op Inc LTM | 93 |
| FCF LTM | 33 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 71 |
| CFO LTM | 37 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 75 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -3.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 23.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 15.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -6.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -7.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.6 |
| P/S | 2.5 |
| P/EBIT | 3.9 |
| P/E | 9.3 |
| P/CFO | 3.3 |
| Total Yield | 16.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 4.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 8.7% |
| D/E | 1.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -14.1% |
| 6M Rtn | -1.2% |
| 12M Rtn | -8.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 31.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -19.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -15.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -20.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -43.4% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2212025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11082024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3012024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |