Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -30%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 251x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 85x
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 40%
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.1%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Defense Services. Themes include Aviation MRO, Aviation Supply Chain & Logistics, and Defense & Government Aviation Support.
  
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 40%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Defense Services. Themes include Aviation MRO, Aviation Supply Chain & Logistics, and Defense & Government Aviation Support.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -30%
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 251x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 85x
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.1%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

AIR Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining recent movements in AAR (AIR) stock: 1. Strong Fiscal Year 2024 Performance and Optimistic Fiscal Year 2025 Outlook. AAR reported record fourth-quarter and full fiscal year 2024 results on July 18, 2024. Full fiscal year 2024 sales reached $2.3 billion, a 17% increase over the previous year, with adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $3.33, up 16% from fiscal year 2023. The company also projected continued growth and margin enhancement for fiscal year 2025, anticipating revenue growth of 15% to 19% for the first quarter of fiscal year 2025.

2. Strategic Acquisitions Expanding Market Share and Capabilities. AAR bolstered its market position through significant acquisitions. This included the acquisition of HAECO Americas for $78 million, which expanded its heavy maintenance footprint and secured over $850 million in multi-year heavy maintenance contracts. Additionally, the acquisition of American Distributors Holding Co., LLC (ADI) for $146 million aimed to enhance AAR's parts distribution business.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
AIR Return-19%8%15%39%-2%35%85%
Peers Return4%18%5%3%16%16%78%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AIR Win Rate58%42%58%58%50%60% 
Peers Win Rate52%50%37%33%45%44% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AIR Max Drawdown-79%-13%-10%-1%-9%-21% 
Peers Max Drawdown-50%-7%-12%-12%-4%-10% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: RTX, HON, HEI, TXT, APEX. See AIR Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventAIRS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-33.2%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven49.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven141 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-79.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven395.6%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven734 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-39.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven65.4%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven206 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-73.1%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven271.6%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven2948 days1480 days

Compare to RTX, HON, HEI, TXT, APEX


In The Past

AAR's stock fell -33.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/7/2022. A -33.2% loss requires a 49.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About AAR (AIR)

Better Bets than AAR (AIR)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to AIR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for AAR

Peers to compare with:

Financials

AIRRTXHONHEITXTAPEXMedian
NameAAR RTX Honeywel.Heico Textron APEX Glo. 
Mkt Price82.64168.45193.47309.4583.70-168.45
Mkt Cap3.0226.2122.943.114.9-43.1
Rev LTM2,85885,98840,6704,28914,237-14,237
Op Inc LTM2018,8157,692959897-959
FCF LTM-264,7266,164782695-782
FCF 3Y Avg-155,5475,212581760-760
CFO LTM107,9637,4858451,058-1,058
CFO 3Y Avg178,6916,3366351,140-1,140

Growth & Margins

AIRRTXHONHEITXTAPEXMedian
NameAAR RTX Honeywel.Heico Textron APEX Glo. 
Rev Chg LTM17.6%8.8%7.5%13.5%1.8%-8.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg16.4%9.4%5.2%27.3%4.3%-9.4%
Rev Chg Q11.8%11.9%7.0%15.7%5.1%-11.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.8%2.9%1.7%3.8%1.2%-2.8%
Op Mgn LTM7.0%10.3%18.9%22.3%6.3%-10.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg6.4%7.7%19.5%21.8%6.9%-7.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.6%0.3%-0.9%0.3%0.4%-0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM0.3%9.3%18.4%19.7%7.4%-9.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg0.7%11.3%16.4%17.6%8.2%-11.3%
FCF/Rev LTM-0.9%5.5%15.2%18.2%4.9%-5.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-0.6%7.2%13.5%16.1%5.5%-7.2%

Valuation

AIRRTXHONHEITXTAPEXMedian
NameAAR RTX Honeywel.Heico Textron APEX Glo. 
Mkt Cap3.0226.2122.943.114.9-43.1
P/S0.92.63.310.61.1-2.6
P/EBIT18.021.615.247.413.6-18.0
P/E85.034.121.871.118.2-34.1
P/CFO250.628.217.954.014.2-28.2
Total Yield1.2%4.5%6.8%1.5%5.6%-4.5%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.5%2.2%0.1%0.1%-0.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-0.7%3.7%4.0%1.7%4.9%-3.7%
D/E0.40.20.30.10.2-0.2
Net D/E0.40.20.20.00.1-0.2

Returns

AIRRTXHONHEITXTAPEXMedian
NameAAR RTX Honeywel.Heico Textron APEX Glo. 
1M Rtn-3.6%-4.5%-1.6%-1.7%4.7%--1.7%
3M Rtn9.2%7.0%-3.5%-2.9%5.0%-5.0%
6M Rtn26.5%22.6%-8.8%3.2%12.4%-12.4%
12M Rtn20.8%45.3%-7.6%15.6%-1.6%-15.6%
3Y Rtn73.8%78.4%-0.1%88.5%17.8%-73.8%
1M Excs Rtn-3.6%-4.4%-1.6%-1.7%4.7%--1.7%
3M Excs Rtn1.8%1.2%-9.4%-9.3%-2.4%--2.4%
6M Excs Rtn11.8%7.9%-23.5%-11.5%-2.3%--2.3%
12M Excs Rtn5.3%27.3%-23.5%-0.3%-15.7%--0.3%
3Y Excs Rtn10.9%13.2%-71.4%23.1%-52.2%-10.9%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Parts Supply976838732  
Repair & Engineering728613525  
Integrated Solutions643547597  
Expeditionary Services70927499108
Inter-segment Sales-97-99-108  
Aviation Services   1,5541,964
Total2,3191,9911,8201,6522,072


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Parts Supply1109475  
Repair & Engineering523529  
Integrated Solutions243021  
Expeditionary Services489  
Corporate and other-60-33-28  
Total129134107  


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Repair & Engineering1,235    
Parts Supply733    
Integrated Solutions542    
Corporate and discontinued operations181    
Expeditionary Services79   104
Aviation Services    1,502
Corporate and other    473
Total2,770   2,079


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,086,210
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-8.2%
Average Daily Volume350,376
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.10
Basic Shares Quantity35,700,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
8312025923202510-Q 8/31/2025
5312025722202510-K 5/31/2025
2282025328202510-Q 2/28/2025
11302024108202510-Q 11/30/2024
8312024924202410-Q 8/31/2024
5312024719202410-K 5/31/2024
2292024321202410-Q 2/29/2024
113020231221202310-Q 11/30/2023
8312023926202310-Q 8/31/2023
5312023718202310-K 5/31/2023
2282023321202310-Q 2/28/2023
113020221220202210-Q 11/30/2022
8312022922202210-Q 8/31/2022
5312022721202210-K 5/31/2022
2282022322202210-Q 2/28/2022
113020211221202110-Q 11/30/2021