AAR (AIR)
Market Price (4/15/2026): $126.0 | Market Cap: $5.0 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense
AAR (AIR)
Market Price (4/15/2026): $126.0Market Cap: $5.0 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Aerospace & Defense
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 38% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Defense Services. Themes include Aviation MRO, Aviation Supply Chain & Logistics, and Defense & Government Aviation Support. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 52x Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 132% Key risksAIR key risks include [1] a significant dependence on a concentrated customer base and [2] operational vulnerabilities from supply chain disruptions and equipment failures. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 38% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Defense Services. Themes include Aviation MRO, Aviation Supply Chain & Logistics, and Defense & Government Aviation Support. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 52x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 132% |
| Key risksAIR key risks include [1] a significant dependence on a concentrated customer base and [2] operational vulnerabilities from supply chain disruptions and equipment failures. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Exceptional Fiscal Q2 and Q3 2026 Financial Results and Upgraded Outlook. AAR reported robust fiscal second-quarter 2026 results on January 6, 2026, with sales increasing 16% to $795 million and adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) rising 31% to $1.18. This positive momentum continued with strong third-quarter 2026 results announced on March 24, 2026, where adjusted diluted EPS of $1.25 significantly surpassed consensus estimates by 8.1% to 8.9%, and sales surged 24.6% year-over-year to $845.1 million, exceeding analyst revenue projections by 4.1%. Following these strong performances, AAR raised its full-year fiscal 2026 guidance, projecting total sales growth of approximately 19% and organic sales growth of roughly 12%.
2. Significant Government Contract Awards. AAR secured two major pallet contracts from the U.S. Air Force with a combined value of up to approximately $450 million, publicly announced on March 24, 2026 (or April 6, 2026 by another source). This included a $160 million firm-fixed-price contract for repair services and a separate $290 million contract to manufacture 463 legacy air cargo pallets. Furthermore, on April 14, 2026, the company was awarded an approximately $305 million contract to provide contractor logistics support for the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps C-40A fleet.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 52.2% change in AIR stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/14/2026 was primarily driven by a 439.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4142026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 82.79 | 125.99 | 52.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,858 | 3,134 | 9.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.0% | 5.5% | 439.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 102.3 | 29.0 | -71.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 36 | 39 | -9.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 52.2% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AIR | 52.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.4% | 59.9% |
| Sector (XLI) | 11.8% | 75.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 40.5% change in AIR stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/14/2026 was primarily driven by a 439.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4142026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 89.67 | 125.99 | 40.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,858 | 3,134 | 9.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.0% | 5.5% | 439.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 110.8 | 29.0 | -73.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 36 | 39 | -9.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 40.5% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AIR | 40.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | -2.9% | 56.9% |
| Sector (XLI) | 12.8% | 74.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 125.0% change in AIR stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/14/2026 was primarily driven by a 113.8% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4142026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 55.99 | 125.99 | 125.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,682 | 3,134 | 16.8% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.7 | 1.6 | 113.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 35 | 39 | -9.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 125.0% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AIR | 125.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.3% | 60.0% |
| Sector (XLI) | 33.7% | 70.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 131.0% change in AIR stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/14/2026 was primarily driven by a 63.8% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4142026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 54.55 | 125.99 | 131.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,913 | 3,134 | 63.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 4.8% | 5.5% | 14.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 20.5 | 29.0 | 41.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 34 | 39 | -13.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 131.0% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AIR | 131.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 63.3% | 51.1% |
| Sector (XLI) | 78.7% | 63.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AIR Return | 8% | 15% | 39% | -2% | 35% | 46% | 234% |
| Peers Return | 14% | 17% | 20% | 44% | 52% | 14% | 301% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -0% | 81% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AIR Win Rate | 42% | 58% | 58% | 50% | 50% | 75% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 53% | 55% | 60% | 62% | 70% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AIR Max Drawdown | -13% | -10% | -1% | -9% | -21% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -12% | -7% | -8% | -6% | -11% | -4% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: HEI, CW, RTX, HWM, HXL. See AIR Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/14/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AIR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -33.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 141 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -79.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 395.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 734 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -39.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 65.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 206 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -73.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 271.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2,948 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to HEI, CW, RTX, HWM, HXL
In The Past
AAR's stock fell -33.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/7/2022. A -33.2% loss requires a 49.7% gain to breakeven.
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About AAR (AIR)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are a couple of brief analogies for AAR Corp.:
- Like AutoZone for airplanes, offering parts, repairs, and maintenance services for commercial and military aircraft.
- The W.W. Grainger of the aviation industry, providing a vast catalog of parts and comprehensive maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) services globally.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Aftermarket Aviation Support: Provides comprehensive support and services for aviation components and systems.
- Inventory Management & Distribution: Offers services for managing, distributing, and providing supply chain logistics for aviation parts and components.
- Maintenance, Repair, & Overhaul (MRO) Services: Performs inspection, maintenance, repair, and overhaul for aircraft airframes, engines, and various components like landing gears, wheels, and brakes.
- Aviation Parts Sales & Leasing: Sells and leases new, overhauled, and repaired engine and airframe parts and components.
- Expeditionary Logistics & Support: Offers products and services that facilitate the movement of equipment and personnel for governments and non-governmental organizations.
- Specialized Manufacturing: Designs, manufactures, and repairs transportation pallets, containers, shelters, and composite materials for aircraft.
- Engineering & System Integration Services: Provides engineering, design, and system integration, including for command and control systems.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Major Customers of AAR Corp. (AIR)
AAR Corp. serves a diverse range of customers primarily within the commercial aviation, government, and defense markets. These customers are predominantly other companies, governmental entities, and organizations rather than individuals. While specific named companies are not listed in the provided background, the major categories of customers include:
- Airlines: This includes domestic and foreign passenger airlines, domestic and foreign cargo airlines, and regional and commuter airlines.
- Governments and Military: Major customers in this category include the U.S. Department of Defense, other U.S. and foreign governments, and domestic and foreign military customers.
- Other Aviation Industry Entities: This broad category encompasses business and general aviation operators, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), aircraft leasing companies, and aftermarket aviation support companies.
- Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs): AAR also supports NGOs with products and services, particularly within its Expeditionary Services segment.
AI Analysis | Feedback
AAR Corp. is an aftermarket provider that sells and leases new, overhauled, and repaired engine and airframe parts and components. To acquire new parts, AAR must purchase them from the original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) or their authorized distributors. Therefore, the major suppliers to AAR are the primary manufacturers of aircraft engines, airframes, and major components.
Major suppliers include:
- General Electric (symbol: GE) (for GE Aerospace products)
- Raytheon Technologies Corporation (symbol: RTX) (for Pratt & Whitney engines and Collins Aerospace components)
- Honeywell International Inc. (symbol: HON)
- Safran S.A.
- The Boeing Company (symbol: BA)
- Airbus SE (symbol: EADSY)
AI Analysis | Feedback
AAR Corp. (NYSE: AIR) has a dedicated management team leading its global operations in commercial aviation, government, and defense markets.John M. Holmes - Chairman, President and CEO
John M. Holmes is the Chairman, President, and CEO of AAR Corp. He joined AAR in 2001 and has held various leadership positions before becoming President in 2017, CEO in 2018, and Chairman in 2023. Holmes has been instrumental in growing the company through multiple acquisitions, including Airinmar®, Premier Aviation, Trax, Triumph Group's Product Support business, Aerostrat, ADI American Distributors, and HAECO Americas. Under his leadership, AAR also launched a Digital Services organization. Prior to joining AAR, Holmes worked in investment banking and private equity.
Dylan Wolin - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Dylan Wolin was appointed Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of AAR Corp., effective February 23, 2026. In this role, he oversees finance, accounting, tax, treasury, investor relations, and corporate development. Wolin previously worked at AAR from 2017 to 2024, leading strategy, corporate development, treasury, and investor relations, where he played a key role in the company's portfolio repositioning and acquisitions like Trax and Triumph Product Support. He rejoined AAR from Federal Signal Corporation, where he served as President of several specialty vehicle businesses from 2024 to 2026. Earlier in his career, Wolin held roles in corporate development at Boeing and investment banking at Deutsche Bank.
Christopher A. Jessup - Senior Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer
Christopher A. Jessup has served as Senior Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer at AAR Corp. since July 2017. He previously held the role of Chief Commercial Officer for AAR's Aviation Services segment starting in 2015. Jessup joined AAR in 2008 through the acquisition of Avborne Heavy Maintenance, Inc., where he had held senior sales and operational roles. His background also includes positions at International Aviation Management Group and ABX Air, Inc. (d.b.a Airborne Express).
Jessica A. Garascia - Senior Vice President, General Counsel, Chief Administrative Officer, and Secretary
Jessica A. Garascia holds the titles of Senior Vice President, General Counsel, Chief Administrative Officer, and Secretary at AAR Corp. She is a key member of the leadership team, reporting directly to the CEO.
Rahul S. Ghai - Senior Vice President and Chief Digital and Technology Officer
Rahul S. Ghai is the Senior Vice President and Chief Digital and Technology Officer at AAR Corp. He joined AAR in 2019 and is responsible for overseeing the Digital Technology & Analytics group, leading the company's digital transformation through technological initiatives. Ghai brings over two decades of experience in technology, having previously served as a managing director of digital technology at United Airlines and also worked at Deloitte Consulting and Sterling Commerce.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key risks to AAR Corp.'s business:- The cyclical nature of the commercial aviation industry poses a significant risk to AAR Corp.'s operations. The company's performance is highly sensitive to overall economic conditions, which can be negatively impacted by economic downturns, geopolitical instability, high fuel prices, and evolving environmental regulations. Such factors can lead to reduced demand for aviation products and services, affecting AAR's revenue and profitability.
- AAR Corp. faces substantial operational risks stemming from supply chain disruptions and increasing operational cost pressures. The company's ability to meet contractual obligations and maintain profitability relies heavily on its network of key suppliers and subcontractors. Disruptions in the aerospace industry's supply chain, coupled with potential labor shortages and rising labor costs, could adversely impact AAR's operations and financial results.
- Compliance and regulatory risks are critical for AAR Corp., particularly due to its involvement with U.S. and foreign governments. Non-compliance with various regulations, including export controls and anti-corruption laws, could lead to severe penalties, damage to its reputation, or the loss of important government contracts.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The increasing adoption and technological advancement of additive manufacturing (3D printing) for aerospace components poses an emerging threat. As 3D printing technology matures, it could enable the on-demand production of spare parts closer to the point of need, potentially reducing the reliance on traditional inventory management, parts distribution, and overhaul services that form a significant portion of AAR's Aviation Services segment. This could disrupt AAR's existing supply chain model and demand for new, overhauled, and repaired parts.AI Analysis | Feedback
AAR Corp. (NYSE: AIR) operates in several addressable markets within the commercial aviation, government, and defense sectors globally. Based on its main products and services, the key addressable markets are:Commercial Aviation Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) Services
The global commercial aircraft MRO services market was valued at approximately USD 110.7 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 146.9 billion by 2032, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 3.3% from 2024 to 2032. Another estimate places the global aircraft MRO market at over USD 80 billion annually, with projections to reach USD 120 billion by 2030. In North America, the MRO demand is expected to grow from USD 28 billion to USD 34 billion by 2035.
Aircraft Aftermarket Parts
The global commercial aircraft aftermarket parts market size reached USD 44.3 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow to USD 72.3 billion by 2033, exhibiting a CAGR of 5.3% during 2025-2033. Other sources indicate the global aircraft aftermarket was valued at USD 33.81 billion in 2024, poised to grow to USD 52.45 billion by 2033. North America is a significant region in this market, holding a 38.1% share and a value of USD 18.8 billion in 2024.
Defense Logistics
The global defense logistics market size was estimated at USD 169.58 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 242.44 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 6.7% from 2025 to 2030. North America held the highest market share of 35.0% in the global defense logistics market in 2023. The U.S. market for defense logistics alone is estimated to reach USD 52.95 billion in 2026.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for AAR Corp. (AIR) over the next 2-3 years:- Expansion of New Parts Distribution Business: AAR Corp. is experiencing robust growth in its Parts Supply segment, particularly in new parts distribution. The company is actively capturing market share through its exclusive distribution model and enhancing its production-facing distribution channels. This strategy has consistently delivered strong organic sales growth, exemplified by a 32% increase in new parts distribution in Q2 FY2026.
- Increased Demand for Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) Services: The commercial aviation industry is seeing a sustained rise in aircraft utilization, leading to a surge in demand for MRO services. A significant factor contributing to this demand is the ongoing shortfall in new aircraft deliveries from major manufacturers, compelling airlines to extend the operational life of their existing, aging fleets, thus necessitating more maintenance work. AAR is capitalizing on this trend by expanding its airframe MRO facilities in Oklahoma City and Miami, which are projected to boost its overall MRO capacity by 15% and add approximately $60 million to annual sales.
- Strategic Acquisitions: AAR has actively pursued and completed strategic acquisitions to accelerate its growth objectives, expand its service offerings, and enhance market reach. Recent acquisitions, such as ADI in Parts Supply and HAECO Americas in Repair & Engineering, along with Aerostrat to bolster Trax software capabilities, are expected to contribute to future revenue growth by adding new capabilities, capacity, and creating synergies across business segments.
- Continued Growth in Government and Defense Sales: AAR consistently demonstrates strong performance in its sales to government customers. This segment has shown significant increases, with sales to government clients rising 23% in Q2 FY2026 and 15% in Q1 FY2026. This sustained growth in government and defense contracts is expected to remain a reliable driver of revenue.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- AAR's Board of Directors authorized a renewal of its stock repurchase program for up to $150 million of common shares on December 21, 2021.
- This stock repurchase authorization has no expiration date.
- Returning capital to shareholders is a stated priority for AAR's capital allocation.
Share Issuance
- AAR announced an underwritten registered public offering of 3,000,000 shares of its common stock on September 30, 2025.
- The company also intended to grant the underwriters an option to purchase up to an additional 450,000 shares.
- The average diluted share count increased from 35.2 million shares in Q2 FY2025 to 38.1 million shares in Q2 FY2026, primarily due to an equity offering completed during the quarter.
Outbound Investments
- AAR acquired ADI, a distributor of components and assemblies, for $138 million, strengthening its new parts distribution capabilities.
- The company acquired HAECO Americas, a provider of airframe heavy maintenance, for $77 million, expanding its heavy maintenance footprint.
- AAR announced an agreement to purchase Aircraft Reconfig Technologies, an aircraft interiors engineering company, for $35 million, expected to close in Q4 FY2026.
Capital Expenditures
- Purchases of property, plant, and equipment (capex) were $7.4 million in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, representing a 10.84% decrease year-over-year.
- AAR prioritizes organic investment in its business as part of its capital allocation strategy.
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Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 230.42 |
| Mkt Cap | 34.6 |
| Rev LTM | 4,066 |
| Op Inc LTM | 845 |
| FCF LTM | 697 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 569 |
| CFO LTM | 777 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 632 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 11.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 12.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 14.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 14.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 13.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 15.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 12.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 34.6 |
| P/S | 5.6 |
| P/EBIT | 38.7 |
| P/E | 57.6 |
| P/CFO | 44.3 |
| Total Yield | 2.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.7% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 8.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 10.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 33.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 82.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 122.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 3.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 11.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 31.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 55.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 58.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parts Supply | 976 | 838 | |||
| Repair & Engineering | 728 | 613 | |||
| Integrated Solutions | 643 | 547 | |||
| Expeditionary Services | 70 | 92 | 74 | 99 | 108 |
| Inter-segment Sales | -97 | -99 | |||
| Aviation Services | 1,746 | 1,554 | 1,964 | ||
| Total | 2,319 | 1,991 | 1,820 | 1,652 | 2,072 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parts Supply | 110 | 94 | |||
| Repair & Engineering | 52 | 35 | |||
| Integrated Solutions | 24 | 30 | |||
| Expeditionary Services | 4 | 8 | |||
| Corporate and other | -60 | -33 | |||
| Total | 129 | 134 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Repair & Engineering | 1,235 | 433 | |||
| Parts Supply | 733 | 588 | |||
| Integrated Solutions | 542 | 583 | |||
| Corporate and discontinued operations | 181 | 162 | |||
| Expeditionary Services | 79 | 67 | 75 | 73 | 104 |
| Aviation Services | 1,367 | 1,357 | 1,502 | ||
| Corporate and other | 132 | 110 | 473 | ||
| Total | 2,770 | 1,833 | 1,574 | 1,540 | 2,079 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $125.99 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 5.0 | |
| First Trading Date | 07/19/1984 | |
| Distance from 52W High | 0.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $112.45 | $89.64 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 12.0% | 40.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 48.2% | 37.9% |
| Downside Capture | 0.34 | 0.52 |
| Upside Capture | 294.51 | 181.19 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 51.7% | 47.4% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 3.14 | 2.30 | 2.11 | 1.79 | 1.26 | 1.20 |
| Up Beta | -1.35 | 1.67 | 1.94 | 1.59 | 1.10 | 1.16 |
| Down Beta | 3.53 | 2.56 | 2.28 | 1.73 | 1.24 | 1.20 |
| Up Capture | 512% | 352% | 389% | 291% | 252% | 201% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 23 | 36 | 67 | 135 | 395 |
| Down Capture | 232% | 154% | 105% | 138% | 112% | 105% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 19 | 27 | 59 | 116 | 354 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AIR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AIR | 144.3% | 37.9% | 2.45 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 42.1% | 15.4% | 2.08 | 65.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 24.2% | 12.9% | 1.49 | 49.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 53.4% | 27.6% | 1.55 | 17.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 26.8% | 16.2% | 1.47 | 17.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 18.7% | 13.8% | 1.00 | 29.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -6.8% | 42.9% | -0.05 | 24.5% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AIR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AIR | 25.6% | 34.8% | 0.73 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.5% | 17.3% | 0.61 | 65.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.1% | 17.0% | 0.50 | 53.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 22.5% | 17.8% | 1.03 | 14.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.7% | 18.8% | 0.51 | 25.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.9% | 18.8% | 0.11 | 39.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 5.8% | 56.5% | 0.32 | 20.2% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AIR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AIR | 18.9% | 45.0% | 0.55 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 14.2% | 19.9% | 0.63 | 64.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.0% | 17.9% | 0.67 | 53.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.3% | 15.9% | 0.75 | 6.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.8% | 17.6% | 0.42 | 28.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 47.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.7% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 16.5% |
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Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 3/24/2026 | 9.9% | 1.5% | |
| 1/6/2026 | 2.1% | 9.2% | 19.5% |
| 7/16/2025 | 13.6% | 6.1% | 3.0% |
| 3/27/2025 | -16.4% | -21.6% | -21.7% |
| 1/7/2025 | 8.6% | 12.6% | 9.0% |
| 7/18/2024 | -12.1% | -9.6% | -13.9% |
| 3/21/2024 | -5.9% | -6.3% | 3.6% |
| 12/21/2023 | -10.2% | -11.9% | -18.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 9 | 11 |
| # Negative | 8 | 10 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 3.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% |
| Median Negative | -5.3% | -4.8% | -9.9% |
| Max Positive | 13.6% | 12.6% | 19.5% |
| Max Negative | -16.4% | -21.6% | -21.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 02/28/2026 | 03/25/2026 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2025 | 01/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2025 | 09/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2025 | 07/22/2025 | 10-K |
| 02/28/2025 | 03/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2024 | 01/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2024 | 09/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2024 | 07/19/2024 | 10-K |
| 02/29/2024 | 03/21/2024 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2023 | 12/21/2023 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2023 | 09/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2023 | 07/18/2023 | 10-K |
| 02/28/2023 | 03/21/2023 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2022 | 12/20/2022 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2022 | 09/22/2022 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2022 | 07/21/2022 | 10-K |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 3/24/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2026 Total sales growth | 19.0% | 20.0% | 21.0% | ||||
| Q4 2026 Organic sales growth | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.0% | ||||
| Q4 2026 Adjusted operating margin | 10.2% | 10.35% | 10.5% | ||||
| 2026 Total sales growth | 19.0% | 11.8% | 2.0% | Raised | Guidance: 17.0% for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Organic sales growth | 12.0% | 9.1% | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 11.0% for 2026 | ||
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 1/6/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Total sales growth | 20.0% | 21.0% | 22.0% | Higher New | |||
| Q3 2026 Organic sales growth | 8.0% | 9.5% | 11.0% | Higher New | |||
| Q3 2026 Adjusted operating margin | 9.8% | 9.95% | 10.1% | Higher New | |||
| 2026 Total sales growth | 17.0% | Higher New | |||||
| 2026 Organic sales growth | 11.0% | Higher New | |||||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Holmes, John McClain Iii | Chairman, President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 1062026 | 84.12 | 23,077 | 1,941,304 | 19,942,511 | Form |
| 2 | Holmes, John McClain Iii | Chairman, President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 11062025 | 83.50 | 38,462 | 3,211,615 | 21,722,034 | Form |
| 3 | Holmes, John McClain Iii | Chairman, President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 8072025 | 71.70 | 10,000 | 716,994 | 21,409,656 | Form |
| 4 | Pachapa, Eric | VP-CAO & Controller | Direct | Sell | 8042025 | 72.92 | 5,000 | 364,582 | 1,486,422 | Form |
| 5 | Holmes, John McClain Iii | Chairman, President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 7252025 | 77.34 | 25,000 | 1,933,578 | 27,914,749 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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