Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -29%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 251x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 85x
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 40%
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.1%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Defense Services. Themes include Aviation MRO, Aviation Supply Chain & Logistics, and Defense & Government Aviation Support.
  Key risks
AIR key risks include [1] a significant dependence on a concentrated customer base and [2] operational vulnerabilities from supply chain disruptions and equipment failures.
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 40%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Defense Services. Themes include Aviation MRO, Aviation Supply Chain & Logistics, and Defense & Government Aviation Support.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -29%
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 251x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 85x
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.1%
6 Key risks
AIR key risks include [1] a significant dependence on a concentrated customer base and [2] operational vulnerabilities from supply chain disruptions and equipment failures.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

AIR Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

For the period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, AAR (AIR) experienced several significant developments that could contribute to a positive stock movement, such as the reported 7.3% increase. These key points include: 1. Acquisition of Aircraft Reconfig Technologies.

AAR entered a definitive agreement on December 17, 2025, to acquire Aircraft Reconfig Technologies for $35 million in an all-cash transaction. This acquisition is expected to expand AAR's engineering and certification capabilities within its Repair & Engineering segment and is anticipated to be accretive to both margins and earnings. 2. Multi-year Extension of Aircraft Support Services with Air Methods.

AAR's subsidiary, Airinmar, signed a multi-year extension agreement with Air Methods on December 17, 2025, to continue providing aircraft warranty management and value engineering services. This renewed contract strengthens an existing relationship and addresses the rising demand for Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) services due to increasing aircraft deliveries and aging fleets.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
AIR Return-19%8%15%39%-2%33%82%
Peers Return-6%14%17%20%44%48%222%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AIR Win Rate58%42%58%58%50%50% 
Peers Win Rate48%55%53%55%60%58% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AIR Max Drawdown-79%-13%-10%-1%-9%-21% 
Peers Max Drawdown-53%-12%-7%-8%-6%-11% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HEI, CW, RTX, HWM, HXL. See AIR Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventAIRS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-33.2%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven49.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven141 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-79.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven395.6%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven734 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-39.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven65.4%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven206 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-73.1%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven271.6%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven2948 days1480 days

Compare to RTX, HON, HEI, TXT, APEX


In The Past

AAR's stock fell -33.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/7/2022. A -33.2% loss requires a 49.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About AAR (AIR)

Better Bets than AAR (AIR)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to AIR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
19.8%19.8%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.2%4.2%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
1.5%1.5%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
19.8%19.8%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.2%4.2%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
1.5%1.5%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for AAR

Peers to compare with:

Financials

AIRHEICWRTXHWMHXLMedian
NameAAR Heico Curtiss-.RTX Howmet A.Hexcel  
Mkt Price81.26307.10533.02177.25191.2272.66184.24
Mkt Cap2.942.720.0238.177.35.831.3
Rev LTM2,8584,2893,37685,9887,7211,8763,833
Op Inc LTM2019596188,8151,854119788
FCF LTM-267825174,7261,018194650
FCF 3Y Avg-155814695,547857167525
CFO LTM108455927,9631,423268718
CFO 3Y Avg176355258,6911,139256580

Growth & Margins

AIRHEICWRTXHWMHXLMedian
NameAAR Heico Curtiss-.RTX Howmet A.Hexcel  
Rev Chg LTM17.6%13.5%9.5%8.8%8.9%-0.5%9.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg16.4%27.3%11.1%9.4%13.5%7.8%12.3%
Rev Chg Q11.8%15.7%8.8%11.9%9.2%-0.1%10.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.8%3.8%2.1%2.9%2.3%-0.0%2.5%
Op Mgn LTM7.0%22.3%18.3%10.3%24.0%6.3%14.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg6.4%21.8%17.6%7.7%20.5%10.0%13.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.6%0.3%0.2%0.3%0.8%-0.9%0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM0.3%19.7%17.5%9.3%18.4%14.3%15.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg0.7%17.6%16.9%11.3%16.0%13.9%15.0%
FCF/Rev LTM-0.9%18.2%15.3%5.5%13.2%10.3%11.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-0.6%16.1%15.2%7.2%12.1%9.0%10.5%

Valuation

AIRHEICWRTXHWMHXLMedian
NameAAR Heico Curtiss-.RTX Howmet A.Hexcel  
Mkt Cap2.942.720.0238.177.35.831.3
P/S0.910.66.02.610.32.74.3
P/EBIT18.047.431.821.643.541.836.8
P/E85.071.243.734.156.872.764.0
P/CFO250.754.134.328.255.718.744.2
Total Yield1.2%1.5%2.4%4.5%1.8%1.9%1.9%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.1%0.1%1.5%0.1%0.5%0.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-0.7%1.7%4.0%3.7%2.2%3.3%2.7%
D/E0.40.10.10.20.00.20.1
Net D/E0.40.00.00.20.00.10.1

Returns

AIRHEICWRTXHWMHXLMedian
NameAAR Heico Curtiss-.RTX Howmet A.Hexcel  
1M Rtn2.9%-1.2%-1.9%1.3%-4.5%3.9%0.1%
3M Rtn8.7%-3.1%7.2%12.4%3.2%17.4%7.9%
6M Rtn21.4%-1.2%15.3%22.5%12.5%34.4%18.3%
12M Rtn29.4%18.3%46.5%53.8%71.3%15.5%38.0%
3Y Rtn82.6%102.9%225.3%92.8%406.3%31.2%97.9%
1M Excs Rtn2.2%-2.0%-2.7%0.6%-5.3%3.2%-0.7%
3M Excs Rtn5.7%-5.9%2.7%11.1%-1.6%15.2%4.2%
6M Excs Rtn9.0%-13.6%2.9%10.1%0.1%22.0%5.9%
12M Excs Rtn17.5%8.6%34.5%42.3%57.9%4.2%26.0%
3Y Excs Rtn7.3%27.5%148.6%22.0%328.0%-42.7%24.8%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Parts Supply976838732  
Repair & Engineering728613525  
Integrated Solutions643547597  
Expeditionary Services70927499108
Inter-segment Sales-97-99-108  
Aviation Services   1,5541,964
Total2,3191,9911,8201,6522,072


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Parts Supply1109475  
Repair & Engineering523529  
Integrated Solutions243021  
Expeditionary Services489  
Corporate and other-60-33-28  
Total129134107  


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Repair & Engineering1,235    
Parts Supply733    
Integrated Solutions542    
Corporate and discontinued operations181    
Expeditionary Services79   104
Aviation Services    1,502
Corporate and other    473
Total2,770   2,079


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,132,000
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520254.2%
Average Daily Volume363,820
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.11
Basic Shares Quantity35,700,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.2%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
7/16/202513.6%6.1%3.0%
3/27/2025-16.4%-21.6%-21.7%
1/7/20258.6%12.6%9.0%
7/18/2024-12.1%-9.6%-13.9%
3/21/2024-5.9%-6.3%3.6%
12/21/2023-10.2%-11.9%-18.6%
9/26/20232.5%-1.0%-2.7%
7/18/2023-1.8%-2.3%-1.6%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive11811
# Negative9129
Median Positive5.0%5.2%5.5%
Median Negative-5.9%-4.8%-9.8%
Max Positive13.6%16.8%9.0%
Max Negative-16.4%-21.6%-21.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
8312025923202510-Q 8/31/2025
5312025722202510-K 5/31/2025
2282025328202510-Q 2/28/2025
11302024108202510-Q 11/30/2024
8312024924202410-Q 8/31/2024
5312024719202410-K 5/31/2024
2292024321202410-Q 2/29/2024
113020231221202310-Q 11/30/2023
8312023926202310-Q 8/31/2023
5312023718202310-K 5/31/2023
2282023321202310-Q 2/28/2023
113020221220202210-Q 11/30/2022
8312022922202210-Q 8/31/2022
5312022721202210-K 5/31/2022
2282022322202210-Q 2/28/2022
113020211221202110-Q 11/30/2021