AAR (AIR)
Market Price (9/5/2026): $126.38 | Market Cap: $5.0 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense
AAR (AIR)
Market Price (9/5/2026): $126.38Market Cap: $5.0 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Aerospace & Defense
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 43% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Defense Services. Themes include Aviation MRO, Aviation Supply Chain & Logistics, and Defense & Government Aviation Support. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 51x Key risksAIR key risks include [1] a significant dependence on a concentrated customer base and [2] operational vulnerabilities from supply chain disruptions and equipment failures. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 43% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Defense Services. Themes include Aviation MRO, Aviation Supply Chain & Logistics, and Defense & Government Aviation Support. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 51x |
| Key risksAIR key risks include [1] a significant dependence on a concentrated customer base and [2] operational vulnerabilities from supply chain disruptions and equipment failures. |
Qualitative Assessment
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AAR (AIR) stock has gained about 10% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q4 2026 Earnings Beat. AAR reported better-than-expected financial results for fiscal Q4 2026, which ended on May 31, 2026, with the announcement made on July 21, 2026. The company's adjusted diluted EPS of $1.53 surpassed analysts' consensus estimates of $1.38 by $0.15. Additionally, quarterly revenue reached $928 million, exceeding analyst projections of $893.03 million and marking a 23.0% year-over-year increase.
2. Secured Long-Term Government Contracts. Although announced prior to the reporting period in March 2026, AAR was awarded two major pallet contracts by the U.S. Air Force with a combined value of up to approximately $450 million. These contracts for the repair and manufacturing of 463L pallets extend through March 2031 and March 2032, respectively, providing a substantial, long-term revenue backlog and reinforcing the stability of the company's government business segment.
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AAR (AIR) stock has gained about 10% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q4 2026 Earnings Beat. AAR reported better-than-expected financial results for fiscal Q4 2026, which ended on May 31, 2026, with the announcement made on July 21, 2026. The company's adjusted diluted EPS of $1.53 surpassed analysts' consensus estimates of $1.38 by $0.15. Additionally, quarterly revenue reached $928 million, exceeding analyst projections of $893.03 million and marking a 23.0% year-over-year increase.
2. Secured Long-Term Government Contracts. Although announced prior to the reporting period in March 2026, AAR was awarded two major pallet contracts by the U.S. Air Force with a combined value of up to approximately $450 million. These contracts for the repair and manufacturing of 463L pallets extend through March 2031 and March 2032, respectively, providing a substantial, long-term revenue backlog and reinforcing the stability of the company's government business segment.
3. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Revised Price Targets. Several analysts reiterated "Buy" ratings and increased their price targets for AAR during June and July 2026, indicating a positive outlook for the company's future performance. For instance, RBC Capital raised its price target from $260 to $288 on July 30, 2026, and Truist Financial increased its target from $128 to $145 on July 27, 2026.
4. Increased Institutional Investor Confidence. Significant institutional investment occurred in AAR during calendar Q2 2026. BlackRock Inc. acquired a new stake in AAR valued at approximately $925.068 million. Additionally, PDT Partners LLC and Algert Global notably increased or established new positions, with PDT Partners purchasing 59,060 shares valued at approximately $8.4 million and Algert Global increasing its stake by 28.1% (15,407 additional shares) for a total value of approximately $10.05 million.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 12.4% change in AIR stock from 5/31/2026 to 9/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 5.5% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 5312026 | 9042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 112.62 | 126.54 | 12.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,134 | 3,308 | 5.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 25.9 | 26.8 | 3.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 39 | 40 | -1.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 12.4% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2026 to 9/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AIR | 12.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.8% | 33.4% |
| Sector (XLI) | 1.2% | 57.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 8.0% change in AIR stock from 2/28/2026 to 9/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 78.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 9042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 117.17 | 126.54 | 8.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,968 | 3,308 | 11.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.2% | 5.7% | 78.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 47.1 | 26.8 | -43.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 38 | 40 | -5.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 8.0% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 9/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AIR | 8.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.6% | 50.4% |
| Sector (XLI) | -0.8% | 69.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 67.2% change in AIR stock from 8/31/2025 to 9/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 1162.2% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 9042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 75.66 | 126.54 | 67.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,780 | 3,308 | 19.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 0.4% | 5.7% | 1162.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 219.1 | 26.8 | -87.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 36 | 40 | -9.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 67.2% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 9/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AIR | 67.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 20.4% | 49.5% |
| Sector (XLI) | 16.5% | 68.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 105.4% change in AIR stock from 8/31/2023 to 9/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 66.2% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 8312023 | 9042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 61.60 | 126.54 | 105.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,990 | 3,308 | 66.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 4.5% | 5.7% | 25.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 23.9 | 26.8 | 12.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 35 | 40 | -12.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 105.4% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2023 to 9/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AIR | 105.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 77.1% | 50.0% |
| Sector (XLI) | 68.7% | 63.4% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AIR Return | 8% | 15% | 39% | -2% | 35% | 52% | 247% |
| Peers Return | 14% | 17% | 20% | 44% | 52% | 14% | 301% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 106% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AIR Win Rate | 42% | 58% | 58% | 50% | 50% | 56% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 53% | 55% | 60% | 62% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 56% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AIR Max Drawdown | -29% | -33% | -14% | -24% | -33% | -20% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -19% | -20% | -19% | -14% | -21% | -22% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: HEI, CW, RTX, HWM, HXL. See AIR Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/4/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AIR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -24.5% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.4% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 56 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -21.1% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.7% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 338 days | 18 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -12.3% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.0% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 22 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -79.1% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 379.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 714 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -26.0% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.2% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 361 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -29.7% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.3% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 87 days | 62 days |
In The Past
AAR's stock fell -24.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 32.4% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | AIR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -24.5% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.4% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 56 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -21.1% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.7% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 338 days | 18 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -79.1% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 379.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 714 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -26.0% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.2% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 361 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -29.7% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.3% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 87 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -31.8% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.6% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 340 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -51.6% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 106.5% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 770 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -38.3% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.0% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 148 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -73.1% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 271.7% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2940 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
AAR's stock fell -24.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 32.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About AAR (AIR)
AAR Corp. (AIR) is a global provider of essential products and services primarily to the commercial aviation, government, and defense markets. The company operates through two main segments: Aviation Services and Expeditionary Services, addressing critical needs in aircraft maintenance, logistics, and specialized support for mobile operations worldwide.
Through its Aviation Services segment, AAR is a significant player in the aftermarket aviation industry. It offers a comprehensive range of services including maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) for aircraft, engines, and components, alongside inventory management, distribution of new and repaired parts, and extensive supply chain logistics programs. This segment serves a broad customer base including domestic and foreign passenger and cargo airlines, regional carriers, aircraft leasing companies, original equipment manufacturers, and various military customers globally.
AAR's Expeditionary Services segment focuses on providing specialized products and support for the movement of equipment and personnel, primarily to the U.S. and foreign governments, as well as non-governmental organizations. Key offerings here include the design, manufacturing, and repair of specialized transportation pallets, containers, and shelters, in addition to composite materials for aircraft. The segment also provides engineering and system integration services for critical command and control systems.
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Here are a couple of brief analogies for AAR Corp.:
- Like AutoZone for airplanes, offering parts, repairs, and maintenance services for commercial and military aircraft.
- The W.W. Grainger of the aviation industry, providing a vast catalog of parts and comprehensive maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) services globally.
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- Aftermarket Aviation Support: Provides comprehensive support and services for aviation components and systems.
- Inventory Management & Distribution: Offers services for managing, distributing, and providing supply chain logistics for aviation parts and components.
- Maintenance, Repair, & Overhaul (MRO) Services: Performs inspection, maintenance, repair, and overhaul for aircraft airframes, engines, and various components like landing gears, wheels, and brakes.
- Aviation Parts Sales & Leasing: Sells and leases new, overhauled, and repaired engine and airframe parts and components.
- Expeditionary Logistics & Support: Offers products and services that facilitate the movement of equipment and personnel for governments and non-governmental organizations.
- Specialized Manufacturing: Designs, manufactures, and repairs transportation pallets, containers, shelters, and composite materials for aircraft.
- Engineering & System Integration Services: Provides engineering, design, and system integration, including for command and control systems.
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Major Customers of AAR Corp. (AIR)
AAR Corp. serves a diverse range of customers primarily within the commercial aviation, government, and defense markets. These customers are predominantly other companies, governmental entities, and organizations rather than individuals. While specific named companies are not listed in the provided background, the major categories of customers include:
- Airlines: This includes domestic and foreign passenger airlines, domestic and foreign cargo airlines, and regional and commuter airlines.
- Governments and Military: Major customers in this category include the U.S. Department of Defense, other U.S. and foreign governments, and domestic and foreign military customers.
- Other Aviation Industry Entities: This broad category encompasses business and general aviation operators, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), aircraft leasing companies, and aftermarket aviation support companies.
- Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs): AAR also supports NGOs with products and services, particularly within its Expeditionary Services segment.
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AAR Corp. is an aftermarket provider that sells and leases new, overhauled, and repaired engine and airframe parts and components. To acquire new parts, AAR must purchase them from the original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) or their authorized distributors. Therefore, the major suppliers to AAR are the primary manufacturers of aircraft engines, airframes, and major components.
Major suppliers include:
- General Electric (symbol: GE) (for GE Aerospace products)
- Raytheon Technologies Corporation (symbol: RTX) (for Pratt & Whitney engines and Collins Aerospace components)
- Honeywell International Inc. (symbol: HON)
- Safran S.A.
- The Boeing Company (symbol: BA)
- Airbus SE (symbol: EADSY)
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John M. Holmes - Chairman, President and CEO
John M. Holmes is the Chairman, President, and CEO of AAR Corp. He joined AAR in 2001 and has held various leadership positions before becoming President in 2017, CEO in 2018, and Chairman in 2023. Holmes has been instrumental in growing the company through multiple acquisitions, including Airinmar®, Premier Aviation, Trax, Triumph Group's Product Support business, Aerostrat, ADI American Distributors, and HAECO Americas. Under his leadership, AAR also launched a Digital Services organization. Prior to joining AAR, Holmes worked in investment banking and private equity.
Dylan Wolin - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Dylan Wolin was appointed Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of AAR Corp., effective February 23, 2026. In this role, he oversees finance, accounting, tax, treasury, investor relations, and corporate development. Wolin previously worked at AAR from 2017 to 2024, leading strategy, corporate development, treasury, and investor relations, where he played a key role in the company's portfolio repositioning and acquisitions like Trax and Triumph Product Support. He rejoined AAR from Federal Signal Corporation, where he served as President of several specialty vehicle businesses from 2024 to 2026. Earlier in his career, Wolin held roles in corporate development at Boeing and investment banking at Deutsche Bank.
Christopher A. Jessup - Senior Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer
Christopher A. Jessup has served as Senior Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer at AAR Corp. since July 2017. He previously held the role of Chief Commercial Officer for AAR's Aviation Services segment starting in 2015. Jessup joined AAR in 2008 through the acquisition of Avborne Heavy Maintenance, Inc., where he had held senior sales and operational roles. His background also includes positions at International Aviation Management Group and ABX Air, Inc. (d.b.a Airborne Express).
Jessica A. Garascia - Senior Vice President, General Counsel, Chief Administrative Officer, and Secretary
Jessica A. Garascia holds the titles of Senior Vice President, General Counsel, Chief Administrative Officer, and Secretary at AAR Corp. She is a key member of the leadership team, reporting directly to the CEO.
Rahul S. Ghai - Senior Vice President and Chief Digital and Technology Officer
Rahul S. Ghai is the Senior Vice President and Chief Digital and Technology Officer at AAR Corp. He joined AAR in 2019 and is responsible for overseeing the Digital Technology & Analytics group, leading the company's digital transformation through technological initiatives. Ghai brings over two decades of experience in technology, having previously served as a managing director of digital technology at United Airlines and also worked at Deloitte Consulting and Sterling Commerce.
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- The cyclical nature of the commercial aviation industry poses a significant risk to AAR Corp.'s operations. The company's performance is highly sensitive to overall economic conditions, which can be negatively impacted by economic downturns, geopolitical instability, high fuel prices, and evolving environmental regulations. Such factors can lead to reduced demand for aviation products and services, affecting AAR's revenue and profitability.
- AAR Corp. faces substantial operational risks stemming from supply chain disruptions and increasing operational cost pressures. The company's ability to meet contractual obligations and maintain profitability relies heavily on its network of key suppliers and subcontractors. Disruptions in the aerospace industry's supply chain, coupled with potential labor shortages and rising labor costs, could adversely impact AAR's operations and financial results.
- Compliance and regulatory risks are critical for AAR Corp., particularly due to its involvement with U.S. and foreign governments. Non-compliance with various regulations, including export controls and anti-corruption laws, could lead to severe penalties, damage to its reputation, or the loss of important government contracts.
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Commercial Aviation Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) Services
The global commercial aircraft MRO services market was valued at approximately USD 110.7 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 146.9 billion by 2032, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 3.3% from 2024 to 2032. Another estimate places the global aircraft MRO market at over USD 80 billion annually, with projections to reach USD 120 billion by 2030. In North America, the MRO demand is expected to grow from USD 28 billion to USD 34 billion by 2035.
Aircraft Aftermarket Parts
The global commercial aircraft aftermarket parts market size reached USD 44.3 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow to USD 72.3 billion by 2033, exhibiting a CAGR of 5.3% during 2025-2033. Other sources indicate the global aircraft aftermarket was valued at USD 33.81 billion in 2024, poised to grow to USD 52.45 billion by 2033. North America is a significant region in this market, holding a 38.1% share and a value of USD 18.8 billion in 2024.
Defense Logistics
The global defense logistics market size was estimated at USD 169.58 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 242.44 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 6.7% from 2025 to 2030. North America held the highest market share of 35.0% in the global defense logistics market in 2023. The U.S. market for defense logistics alone is estimated to reach USD 52.95 billion in 2026.
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- Expansion of New Parts Distribution Business: AAR Corp. is experiencing robust growth in its Parts Supply segment, particularly in new parts distribution. The company is actively capturing market share through its exclusive distribution model and enhancing its production-facing distribution channels. This strategy has consistently delivered strong organic sales growth, exemplified by a 32% increase in new parts distribution in Q2 FY2026.
- Increased Demand for Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) Services: The commercial aviation industry is seeing a sustained rise in aircraft utilization, leading to a surge in demand for MRO services. A significant factor contributing to this demand is the ongoing shortfall in new aircraft deliveries from major manufacturers, compelling airlines to extend the operational life of their existing, aging fleets, thus necessitating more maintenance work. AAR is capitalizing on this trend by expanding its airframe MRO facilities in Oklahoma City and Miami, which are projected to boost its overall MRO capacity by 15% and add approximately $60 million to annual sales.
- Strategic Acquisitions: AAR has actively pursued and completed strategic acquisitions to accelerate its growth objectives, expand its service offerings, and enhance market reach. Recent acquisitions, such as ADI in Parts Supply and HAECO Americas in Repair & Engineering, along with Aerostrat to bolster Trax software capabilities, are expected to contribute to future revenue growth by adding new capabilities, capacity, and creating synergies across business segments.
- Continued Growth in Government and Defense Sales: AAR consistently demonstrates strong performance in its sales to government customers. This segment has shown significant increases, with sales to government clients rising 23% in Q2 FY2026 and 15% in Q1 FY2026. This sustained growth in government and defense contracts is expected to remain a reliable driver of revenue.
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Share Repurchases
- AAR's Board of Directors authorized a renewal of its stock repurchase program for up to $150 million of common shares on December 21, 2021.
- This stock repurchase authorization has no expiration date.
- Returning capital to shareholders is a stated priority for AAR's capital allocation.
Share Issuance
- AAR announced an underwritten registered public offering of 3,000,000 shares of its common stock on September 30, 2025.
- The company also intended to grant the underwriters an option to purchase up to an additional 450,000 shares.
- The average diluted share count increased from 35.2 million shares in Q2 FY2025 to 38.1 million shares in Q2 FY2026, primarily due to an equity offering completed during the quarter.
Outbound Investments
- AAR acquired ADI, a distributor of components and assemblies, for $138 million, strengthening its new parts distribution capabilities.
- The company acquired HAECO Americas, a provider of airframe heavy maintenance, for $77 million, expanding its heavy maintenance footprint.
- AAR announced an agreement to purchase Aircraft Reconfig Technologies, an aircraft interiors engineering company, for $35 million, expected to close in Q4 FY2026.
Capital Expenditures
- Purchases of property, plant, and equipment (capex) were $7.4 million in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, representing a 10.84% decrease year-over-year.
- AAR prioritizes organic investment in its business as part of its capital allocation strategy.
Peer Outperformance in Aerospace & Defense
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AIR | AAR | 18.5% | 26.8x | 64.1% | 116.1% | 275.2% | — |
| ATRO | Astronics | 15.0% | 41.5x | 95.2% | 354.5% | 457.0% | +182pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Construction & Engineering | 31 | 18.0% | 111.1% | 190.3% | CDNL 2702% · FIX 2049% · STRL 2005% |
| Marine Transportation | 5 | 72.8% | 70.4% | 164.7% | HOS 48321% · MATX 188% · KEX 165% |
| Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment | 13 | 14.7% | 63.4% | 115.4% | CAT 322% · ALSN 270% · WAB 223% |
| Aerospace & Defense ← | 55 | -1.3% | 57.5% | 70.3% | ATI 1074% · FTAI 885% · HWM 739% |
| Passenger Ground Transportation | 3 | -11.4% | 41.2% | 58.1% | UBER 88% · CAR 58% · LYFT -65% |
| Rail Transportation | 7 | 30.7% | 72.2% | 46.1% | FSTR 135% · CSX 65% · UNP 51% |
| Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components | 71 | 8.8% | 49.3% | 45.1% | CRS 1411% · PSIX 952% · EROC 609% |
| Cargo Ground Transportation | 16 | 35.6% | 5.9% | 35.4% | XPO 258% · R 251% · CVLG 209% |
| Trading Companies & Distributors | 19 | 0.7% | 39.0% | 32.8% | DXPE 533% · AIT 289% · WCC 214% |
| Diversified Support Services | 33 | 13.1% | 32.4% | 26.8% | LIME 4173% · TH 371% · WLFC 360% |
| Electrical Components & Equipment | 41 | 19.1% | 51.3% | 21.7% | POWL 2201% · BE 1055% · VRT 900% |
| Building Products | 33 | -9.7% | 7.2% | 19.4% | LMB 575% · GFF 398% · PPIH 300% |
| Research & Consulting Services | 13 | -9.7% | -20.5% | -6.3% | HURN 214% · GRNQ 137% · CRAI 89% |
| Agricultural & Farm Machinery | 17 | 14.0% | -1.4% | -7.2% | BLBD 213% · DE 90% · GENC 59% |
| Industrial Conglomerates | 17 | 10.4% | 15.4% | -8.5% | RCMT 676% · CSW 141% · CSL 80% |
| Environmental & Facilities Services | 29 | -8.8% | 16.4% | -12.0% | CECO 880% · ADUR 558% · NVRI 352% |
| Data Processing & Outsourced Services | 6 | -31.6% | -12.8% | -26.0% | EXLS 49% · BR 11% · G -23% |
| Passenger Airlines | 11 | 3.6% | -1.0% | -26.4% | LTM 2504% · UAL 141% · SKYW 117% |
| Office Services & Supplies | 9 | 12.7% | 23.7% | -30.4% | PBI 186% · TILE 157% · HNI 59% |
| Human Resource & Employment Services | 22 | 5.8% | -18.3% | -35.7% | BBSI 86% · ADP 49% · KFY 31% |
| Air Freight & Logistics | 12 | -6.0% | -22.3% | -39.1% | CHRW 85% · FDX 67% · EXPD 62% |
| Security & Alarm Services | 10 | -33.9% | 5.0% | -45.5% | CIX 137% · MG 96% · NL 53% |
| Airport Services | 3 | -66.4% | -76.9% | -57.6% | JOBY -34% · ASLE -58% · UP -100% |
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Peer Comparisons
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Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 230.03 |
| Mkt Cap | 33.2 |
| Rev LTM | 4,415 |
| Op Inc LTM | 967 |
| FCF LTM | 828 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 658 |
| CFO LTM | 916 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 727 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 15.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 12.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 18.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.4% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 31.3% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 28.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 15.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 14.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 18.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 15.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 33.2 |
| P/S | 4.6 |
| P/Op Inc | 30.5 |
| P/EBIT | 29.6 |
| P/E | 42.0 |
| P/CFO | 35.0 |
| Total Yield | 2.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.6% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -11.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 3.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 4.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 36.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 133.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -10.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -1.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -10.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 17.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 54.4% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parts Supply | 1,520 | 1,119 | 976 | 838 | 732 |
| Repair, Engineering, and Software | 1,154 | 1,021 | 769 | ||
| Government Solutions | 506 | 497 | 453 | ||
| Legacy Commercial Programs | 241 | 255 | 219 | ||
| Inter-segment Sales | -113 | -112 | -97 | -99 | -108 |
| Expeditionary Services | 92 | 74 | |||
| Integrated Solutions | 547 | 597 | |||
| Repair & Engineering | 613 | 525 | |||
| Total | 3,308 | 2,780 | 2,319 | 1,991 | 1,820 |
| $ Mil | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parts Supply | 186 | 157 | 110 | 94 | 75 |
| Repair, Engineering, and Software | 85 | 84 | 48 | ||
| Government Solutions | 57 | 35 | 25 | ||
| Legacy Commercial Programs | 0 | 9 | 7 | ||
| Corporate and other | -50 | -99 | -60 | -33 | -28 |
| Expeditionary Services | 8 | 9 | |||
| Integrated Solutions | 30 | 21 | |||
| Repair & Engineering | 35 | 29 | |||
| Total | 278 | 185 | 129 | 134 | 107 |
| $ Mil | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Repair, Engineering, and Software | 1,598 | 1,328 | |||
| Parts Supply | 1,100 | 819 | 733 | ||
| Government Solutions | 283 | 253 | |||
| Legacy Commercial Programs | 250 | 274 | |||
| Corporate and other | 125 | 171 | 149 | 132 | |
| Corporate and discontinued operations | 181 | ||||
| Expeditionary Services | 79 | 67 | 75 | ||
| Integrated Solutions | 542 | ||||
| Repair & Engineering | 1,235 | ||||
| Aviation Services | 1,617 | 1,367 | |||
| Total | 3,356 | 2,845 | 2,770 | 1,833 | 1,574 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $126.54 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 5.0 | |
| First Trading Date | 07/19/1984 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -17.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $136.82 | $113.77 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -7.5% | 11.2% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 49.6% | 43.4% |
| Downside Capture | 174.78 | 170.88 |
| Upside Capture | 178.16 | 193.67 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 33.7% | 49.8% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.36 | 1.77 | 1.16 | 1.86 | 1.66 | 1.26 |
| Up Beta | 2.38 | 1.35 | 1.45 | 2.03 | 1.97 | 1.27 |
| Down Beta | 3.88 | 0.08 | -0.23 | 0.87 | 1.01 | 1.07 |
| Up Capture | -20% | 183% | 207% | 254% | 313% | 270% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 32 | 68 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 21 | 35 | 64 | 132 | 393 |
| Down Capture | 176% | 290% | 127% | 186% | 137% | 107% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 32 | 59 | 113 | 324 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 29 | 63 | 119 | 356 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AIR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AIR | 64.4% | 43.4% | 1.26 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 17.0% | 17.1% | 0.75 | 68.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 19.7% | 12.8% | 1.13 | 49.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.6% | 29.2% | 0.75 | 28.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 44.1% | 20.4% | 1.69 | -23.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 9.1% | 13.6% | 0.39 | 27.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -26.9% | 43.8% | -0.59 | 18.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AIR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AIR | 30.0% | 36.1% | 0.80 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 12.4% | 17.6% | 0.54 | 64.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.2% | 0.57 | 52.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.1% | 18.8% | 0.82 | 16.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.7% | 19.5% | 0.43 | 12.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.7% | 18.9% | -0.01 | 37.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 10.6% | 52.6% | 0.38 | 21.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AIR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AIR | 18.2% | 45.6% | 0.53 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.4% | 20.0% | 0.59 | 64.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 52.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.4% | 16.3% | 0.62 | 8.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.9% | 18.1% | 0.35 | 23.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 20.7% | 0.19 | 46.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 64.0% | 66.2% | 1.04 | 16.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 8/21/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/21/2026 | -9.8% | -0.4% | -1.6% |
| 3/24/2026 | 9.9% | 1.5% | 4.0% |
| 1/6/2026 | 2.1% | 9.2% | 19.5% |
| 9/23/2025 | 4.2% | 14.4% | 3.8% |
| 7/16/2025 | 13.6% | 6.1% | 3.0% |
| 3/27/2025 | -16.4% | -21.6% | -21.7% |
| 1/7/2025 | 8.6% | 12.6% | 9.0% |
| 9/23/2024 | -4.5% | -5.4% | -10.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 11 | 15 |
| # Negative | 11 | 13 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.5% |
| Median Negative | -5.9% | -3.4% | -9.9% |
| Max Positive | 13.6% | 14.4% | 19.5% |
| Max Negative | -16.4% | -21.6% | -21.7% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/21/2026 | -9.8% | -0.4% | -1.6% |
| 3/24/2026 | 9.9% | 1.5% | 4.0% |
| 1/6/2026 | 2.1% | 9.2% | 19.5% |
| 9/23/2025 | 4.2% | 14.4% | 3.8% |
| 7/16/2025 | 13.6% | 6.1% | 3.0% |
| 3/27/2025 | -16.4% | -21.6% | -21.7% |
| 1/7/2025 | 8.6% | 12.6% | 9.0% |
| 9/23/2024 | -4.5% | -5.4% | -10.8% |
| 7/18/2024 | -12.1% | -9.6% | -13.9% |
| 3/21/2024 | -5.9% | -6.3% | 3.6% |
| 12/21/2023 | -10.2% | -11.9% | -18.6% |
| 9/26/2023 | 2.5% | -1.0% | -2.7% |
| 7/18/2023 | -1.8% | -2.3% | -1.6% |
| 3/21/2023 | 5.0% | 4.4% | 3.5% |
| 12/20/2022 | -4.6% | -3.4% | 6.7% |
| 9/22/2022 | -7.1% | -5.9% | 12.3% |
| 7/21/2022 | -3.3% | -3.1% | 5.2% |
| 3/22/2022 | 7.5% | 2.8% | 5.5% |
| 12/21/2021 | 2.4% | 5.2% | 7.2% |
| 9/23/2021 | -1.0% | -2.4% | 5.2% |
| 7/20/2021 | 3.0% | -0.9% | -9.9% |
| 3/23/2021 | 1.9% | 5.1% | -0.4% |
| 12/17/2020 | 1.6% | 2.5% | 8.1% |
| 9/24/2020 | 9.6% | 7.1% | 15.4% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 11 | 15 |
| # Negative | 11 | 13 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.5% |
| Median Negative | -5.9% | -3.4% | -9.9% |
| Max Positive | 13.6% | 14.4% | 19.5% |
| Max Negative | -16.4% | -21.6% | -21.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 05/31/2026 | 07/22/2026 | 10-K |
| 02/28/2026 | 03/25/2026 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2025 | 01/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2025 | 09/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2025 | 07/22/2025 | 10-K |
| 02/28/2025 | 03/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2024 | 01/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2024 | 09/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2024 | 07/19/2024 | 10-K |
| 02/29/2024 | 03/21/2024 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2023 | 12/21/2023 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2023 | 09/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2023 | 07/18/2023 | 10-K |
| 02/28/2023 | 03/21/2023 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2022 | 12/20/2022 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2022 | 09/22/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 05/31/2026 | 07/22/2026 | 10-K |
| 02/28/2026 | 03/25/2026 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2025 | 01/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2025 | 09/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2025 | 07/22/2025 | 10-K |
| 02/28/2025 | 03/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2024 | 01/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2024 | 09/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2024 | 07/19/2024 | 10-K |
| 02/29/2024 | 03/21/2024 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2023 | 12/21/2023 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2023 | 09/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2023 | 07/18/2023 | 10-K |
| 02/28/2023 | 03/21/2023 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2022 | 12/20/2022 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2022 | 09/22/2022 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2022 | 07/21/2022 | 10-K |
| 02/28/2022 | 03/22/2022 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2021 | 12/21/2021 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2021 | 09/23/2021 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2021 | 07/21/2021 | 10-K |
| 02/28/2021 | 03/23/2021 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2020 | 12/18/2020 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2020 | 09/24/2020 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2020 | 07/21/2020 | 10-K |
| 02/29/2020 | 03/25/2020 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2019 | 12/20/2019 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2019 | 09/26/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/22/2026Latest: Q4 2026 Earnings Reported 7/21/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2027 Sales growth (ex. LCP) | Reported | 21.0% | 22.0% | 23.0% | ||||
| Q1 2027 Adjusted EBITDA margin (ex. LCP) | Reported | 12.25% | 12.5% | 12.75% | ||||
| 2027 Sales growth (ex. LCP) | Reported | |||||||
Prior: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 3/24/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2026 Total sales growth | Reported | 19.0% | 20.0% | 21.0% | -1.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 21.0% for Q3 2026 | |
| Q4 2026 Organic sales growth | Reported | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.0% | -2.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 9.5% for Q3 2026 | |
| Q4 2026 Adjusted operating margin | Reported | 10.2% | 10.35% | 10.5% | 0.4% | Raised | Guidance: 9.95% for Q3 2026 | |
| 2026 Total sales growth | Reported | 19.0% | 2.0% | Raised | Guidance: 17.0% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Organic sales growth | Reported | 12.0% | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 11.0% for 2026 | |||
Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 1/6/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Total sales growth | Reported | 20.0% | 21.0% | 22.0% | ||||
| Q3 2026 Organic sales growth | Reported | 8.0% | 9.5% | 11.0% | ||||
| Q3 2026 Adjusted operating margin | Reported | 9.8% | 9.95% | 10.1% | ||||
| 2026 Total sales growth | Reported | 17.0% | ||||||
| 2026 Organic sales growth | Reported | 11.0% | ||||||
Insider Activity
Updated 9/1/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Holmes, John McClain Iii | Chairman, President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 3302026 | 107.60 | 26,175 | 2,816,532 | 25,293,803 | Form |
| 2 | Garascia, Jessica A | Senior VP, GC, CAO & Secretary | Direct | Sell | 3302026 | 112.20 | 6,284 | 705,069 | 3,316,313 | Form |
| 3 | Holmes, John McClain Iii | Chairman, President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 3302026 | 112.41 | 60,000 | 6,744,810 | 26,424,367 | Form |
| 4 | Nolen, Billy | Direct | Sell | 3272026 | 111.00 | 1,562 | Form | |||
| 5 | Holmes, John McClain Iii | Chairman, President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 2032026 | 108.44 | 10,000 | 1,084,363 | 25,706,343 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Holmes, John McClain Iii | Chairman, President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 3302026 | 107.60 | 26,175 | 2,816,532 | 25,293,803 | Form |
| 2 | Garascia, Jessica A | Senior VP, GC, CAO & Secretary | Direct | Sell | 3302026 | 112.20 | 6,284 | 705,069 | 3,316,313 | Form |
| 3 | Holmes, John McClain Iii | Chairman, President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 3302026 | 112.41 | 60,000 | 6,744,810 | 26,424,367 | Form |
| 4 | Nolen, Billy | Direct | Sell | 3272026 | 111.00 | 1,562 | Form | |||
| 5 | Holmes, John McClain Iii | Chairman, President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 2032026 | 108.44 | 10,000 | 1,084,363 | 25,706,343 | Form |
| 6 | Pachapa, Eric | VP-CAO & Controller | Direct | Sell | 1232026 | 105.94 | 4,983 | 527,882 | 2,159,549 | Form |
| 7 | Holmes, John McClain Iii | Chairman, President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 1132026 | 97.50 | 30,000 | 2,925,030 | 23,113,977 | Form |
| 8 | Jessup, Christopher A | Senior Vice President-CCO | Direct | Sell | 1122026 | 97.05 | 23,621 | 2,292,392 | 6,382,763 | Form |
| 9 | Holmes, John McClain Iii | Chairman, President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 1062026 | 84.12 | 23,077 | 1,941,304 | 19,942,511 | Form |
| 10 | Holmes, John McClain Iii | Chairman, President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 11062025 | 83.50 | 38,462 | 3,211,615 | 21,722,034 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Sep 5, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager |
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