Flagstar Bank NA (FLG)
Market Price (3/14/2026): $12.205 | Market Cap: $5.1 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Regional Banks
Flagstar Bank NA (FLG)
Market Price (3/14/2026): $12.205Market Cap: $5.1 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Regional Banks
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -186% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -12%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -119% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -20% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 34% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15% | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.8%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -12% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and AI in Financial Services. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, and AI for Fraud Detection. | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.2% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -186% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 34% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and AI in Financial Services. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, and AI for Fraud Detection. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -12%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -119% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -20% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.8%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -12% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.2% |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Flagstar Bank returned to profitability in the fourth quarter of 2025, reporting net income of $29 million, a significant turnaround from a net loss of $36 million in the third quarter of 2025 and $188 million in the fourth quarter of 2024. Adjusted earnings per share of $0.06 significantly surpassed analyst expectations, which ranged from $0.01 to $0.03 per share.
2. The bank's strategic balance sheet optimization, including a reduction in Commercial Real Estate (CRE) exposure and an increase in Commercial & Industrial (C&I) lending, contributed to investor confidence. CRE loan payoffs amounted to $1.8 billion in Q4 2025, leading to a 25% decline in total CRE balances since the end of 2023, while C&I loan commitments rose 28% to $3.0 billion.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -0.2% change in FLG stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -1.1% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 12.22 | 12.20 | -0.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,041 | 2,062 | 1.0% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.5 | 2.5 | -1.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 416 | 416 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -0.2% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FLG | -0.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | -3.1% | 28.6% |
| Sector (XLF) | -8.3% | 39.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -4.6% change in FLG stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -3.9% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 12.79 | 12.20 | -4.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,145 | 2,062 | -3.9% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.5 | 2.5 | -0.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 415 | 416 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -4.6% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FLG | -4.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.0% | 37.8% |
| Sector (XLF) | -9.1% | 49.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 2.1% change in FLG stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 64.3% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 11.95 | 12.20 | 2.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,926 | 2,062 | -29.5% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.5 | 2.5 | 64.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 367 | 416 | -11.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 2.1% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FLG | 2.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.4% | 47.9% |
| Sector (XLF) | -5.3% | 51.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -51.9% change in FLG stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -62.7% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 25.34 | 12.20 | -51.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,404 | 2,062 | 46.9% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.8 | 2.5 | -12.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 155 | 416 | -62.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -51.9% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FLG | -51.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 73.4% | 28.2% |
| Sector (XLF) | 43.1% | 36.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| FLG Return | 23% | -25% | 25% | -69% | 35% | -2% | -53% |
| Peers Return | 35% | -17% | 2% | 28% | 15% | -2% | 62% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -1% | 80% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| FLG Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 50% | 42% | 58% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 70% | 47% | 48% | 62% | 55% | 33% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| FLG Max Drawdown | -1% | -29% | -24% | -74% | -5% | -2% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -3% | -23% | -30% | -6% | -20% | -3% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -2% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: PNC, USB, TFC, FITB, MTB.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/13/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | FLG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -54.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 120.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -34.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 52.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 110 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -46.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 85.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -61.5% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 159.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1,480 days |
Compare to PNC, USB, TFC, FITB, MTB
In The Past
Flagstar Bank NA's stock fell -54.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/19/2021. A -54.6% loss requires a 120.5% gain to breakeven.
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About Flagstar Bank NA (FLG)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-2 analogies for Flagstar Bank NA (FLG):
- It's like a regional U.S. Bank or PNC Financial Services.
- Think of it as a full-service bank similar to Wells Fargo, but with a particularly strong emphasis on commercial real estate and business lending.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Deposit Accounts: Offers various interest-bearing and non-interest-bearing checking, savings, money market, retirement accounts, and certificates of deposit.
- Commercial Lending: Provides loans for multi-family properties, commercial real estate, acquisition, development, construction, and general commercial and industrial purposes.
- Residential & Consumer Lending: Offers loans for one-to-four family homes, home equity lines of credit, and other consumer needs like vehicle and point-of-sale financing.
- Specialty Finance & Warehouse Lending: Delivers specialized financing solutions, including leases and credit lines for particular industries or purposes.
- Cash Management Services: Provides tools for businesses to efficiently manage their cash flow, payments, and liquidity.
- Investment & Insurance Products: Offers non-deposit investment and insurance products for wealth management and risk protection.
- Digital Banking Services: Provides online, mobile, and bank-by-phone platforms for convenient account management and transactions.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```htmlFlagstar Bank NA (FLG) primarily serves the following categories of customers:
- Individuals
- Small and mid-size businesses
- Professional associations
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Clear emerging threats for Flagstar Bank NA include:
The increasing prevalence and sophistication of **Fintech companies**. Digital-first neobanks, online lenders specializing in specific loan types (e.g., consumer, small business, real estate), and advanced payment processing platforms offer more streamlined, user-friendly, and often lower-cost alternatives to traditional banking services. These companies leverage technology to attract customers seeking competitive rates, efficient loan processing, and modern digital experiences, potentially eroding Flagstar's deposit base and loan origination volumes across its diverse product offerings.
The growing financial services ambitions of **Big Tech companies**. Giants like Apple, Google, and Amazon are expanding their offerings in payments, consumer lending, and even deposit-like products (often through partnerships). Leveraging their vast user bases, brand loyalty, and technological prowess, these companies can disrupt traditional banking relationships by directly competing for Flagstar's customers and their transaction volumes.
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Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to FLG.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02282026 | NDAQ | Nasdaq | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | JEF | Jefferies Financial | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | PAYO | Payoneer Global | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | FOUR | Shift4 Payments | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02202026 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.6% | 2.6% | -6.5% |
| 02292024 | FLG | Flagstar Bank NA | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | -24.5% | -16.1% | -44.7% |
Research & Analysis
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Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 47.41 |
| Mkt Cap | 42.7 |
| Rev LTM | 14,970 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 4,094 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 4,457 |
| CFO LTM | 4,449 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 4,730 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 28.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 33.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 28.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 33.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 42.7 |
| P/S | 2.9 |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | 10.5 |
| P/CFO | 9.8 |
| Total Yield | 12.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 11.4% |
| D/E | 0.8 |
| Net D/E | -0.9 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -15.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -4.4% |
| 6M Rtn | -0.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 19.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 66.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -12.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -3.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -3.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -3.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -32.3% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $12.20 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 5.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 11/23/1993 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -14.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $13.16 | $12.15 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -7.3% | 0.4% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 32.4% | 34.4% |
| Downside Capture | 55.96 | 80.65 |
| Upside Capture | 32.22 | 70.90 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 27.0% | 47.1% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.00 | 0.97 | 0.79 | 1.08 | 0.87 | 1.21 |
| Up Beta | 1.19 | 2.33 | 2.13 | 1.91 | 0.78 | 1.02 |
| Down Beta | 0.39 | 1.11 | 0.83 | 1.39 | 1.14 | 1.16 |
| Up Capture | 111% | 51% | 51% | 59% | 62% | 120% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 18 | 27 | 59 | 127 | 363 |
| Down Capture | 116% | 54% | 32% | 81% | 85% | 110% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 34 | 63 | 120 | 373 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with FLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLG | 5.0% | 34.3% | 0.19 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 3.6% | 19.3% | 0.06 | 52.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 19.6% | 18.9% | 0.81 | 47.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 71.9% | 26.3% | 2.05 | 0.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 19.3% | 17.3% | 0.89 | 15.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.2% | 16.3% | 0.19 | 48.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -15.0% | 44.2% | -0.24 | 24.5% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with FLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLG | -17.4% | 53.6% | -0.15 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 9.3% | 18.7% | 0.38 | 41.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.1% | 17.0% | 0.61 | 33.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.1% | 17.3% | 1.14 | 1.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.2% | 19.0% | 0.47 | 8.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 18.8% | 0.16 | 30.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 6.4% | 56.7% | 0.33 | 9.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with FLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLG | -8.6% | 43.6% | -0.05 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 12.5% | 22.2% | 0.52 | 48.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.5% | 17.9% | 0.70 | 37.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.4% | 15.6% | 0.77 | -2.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.6% | 17.6% | 0.40 | 12.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 34.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.5% | 66.8% | 1.07 | 8.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 1/30/2026 | -2.4% | 2.7% | -4.9% |
| 10/24/2025 | 4.8% | -3.1% | -1.8% |
| 7/25/2025 | -5.5% | -6.3% | 4.8% |
| 4/25/2025 | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.9% |
| 1/30/2025 | 15.2% | 28.0% | 25.0% |
| 10/25/2024 | -8.3% | -12.0% | 1.7% |
| 7/25/2024 | -3.0% | -3.8% | -4.8% |
| 5/1/2024 | 28.3% | 38.5% | 24.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 12 | 13 |
| # Negative | 11 | 12 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 8.0% | 4.6% | 12.0% |
| Median Negative | -3.1% | -3.7% | -6.7% |
| Max Positive | 28.3% | 38.5% | 25.0% |
| Max Negative | -37.7% | -59.5% | -53.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/27/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/09/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/04/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/14/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/01/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/09/2022 | 10-Q |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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