FedEx Freight (FDXF)


Market Price (10/31/2026): $125.82 | Market Cap: $18.8 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Industrials | Industry: Cargo Ground Transportation

FedEx Freight (FDXF)


Market Price (10/31/2026): $125.82
Market Cap: $18.8 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Cargo Ground Transportation

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

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Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Freight, Automation & Robotics, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Freight Technology, Show more.

Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -50%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -101%

Key risks
FDXF key risks include [1] sensitivity to economic cycles and fluctuating freight demand, Show more.

0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Freight, Automation & Robotics, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Freight Technology, Show more.
1 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -50%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -101%
2 Key risks
FDXF key risks include [1] sensitivity to economic cycles and fluctuating freight demand, Show more.

FDXF in ETFs

Weight = FDXF's share of each fund

SPY0.02%
VOO0.02%
IVV0.02%
VTI0.02%
ITOT0.02%
IWB0.02%
RSP0.17%
VYM0.06%
+24 more covered ETFs

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Updated on 10/30/2026

FedEx Freight (FDXF) stock has lost about 15% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Decline in Operating Profit and Diluted Earnings Per Share. FedEx Freight (FDXF) reported a 6% year-over-year decline in operating profit for its four-month transition period ended September 30, 2026. Concurrently, diluted earnings per share (EPS) plummeted by 43% year over year to $1.54 during this same period.

2. Contraction of Operating Margins. The company experienced a significant shrinking of its operating margins, which decreased by 190 basis points during the four-month transition period ended September 30, 2026. This indicates increased operational costs relative to revenue.

Show more
Updated on 10/30/2026

FedEx Freight (FDXF) stock has lost about 15% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Decline in Operating Profit and Diluted Earnings Per Share. FedEx Freight (FDXF) reported a 6% year-over-year decline in operating profit for its four-month transition period ended September 30, 2026. Concurrently, diluted earnings per share (EPS) plummeted by 43% year over year to $1.54 during this same period.

2. Contraction of Operating Margins. The company experienced a significant shrinking of its operating margins, which decreased by 190 basis points during the four-month transition period ended September 30, 2026. This indicates increased operational costs relative to revenue.

3. Decrease in Shipment Volume. Despite an increase in revenue per shipment of 10%, primarily due to price adjustments to offset higher fuel costs, FedEx Freight saw its average daily shipments decline by more than 1%. This suggests a weakening demand or competitive pressures in the less-than-truckload (LTL) market.

4. Weak Profit Outlook for the Upcoming Period. Management's guidance for the final quarter of 2026 projects a further substantial drop in profits, with expectations for earnings to fall to approximately $0.20 per share (excluding specific accounting adjustments), despite anticipated revenue growth of 12.5% year-over-year to over $2.3 billion. This forward-looking negative profitability outlook likely weighed on investor sentiment.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -16.5% change in FDXF stock from 6/30/2026 to 10/30/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).
(LTM values as of)630202610302026Change
Stock Price ($)151.00126.04-16.5%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)��0.0%
Net Income Margin (%)��0.0%
P/E Multiple��0.0%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1501500.0%
Cumulative Contribution0.0%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

6/30/2026 to 10/30/2026
ReturnCorrelation
FDXF-16.5% 
Market (SPY)1.2%-4.9%
Sector (XLI)-9.6%16.2%

Fundamental Drivers

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Market Drivers

3/31/2026 to 10/30/2026
ReturnCorrelation
FDXF  
Market (SPY)16.5%-3.7%
Sector (XLI)3.8%12.6%

Fundamental Drivers

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Market Drivers

9/30/2025 to 10/30/2026
ReturnCorrelation
FDXF  
Market (SPY)14.4%-3.7%
Sector (XLI)9.5%12.6%

Fundamental Drivers

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Market Drivers

9/30/2023 to 10/30/2026
ReturnCorrelation
FDXF  
Market (SPY)82.9%-3.7%
Sector (XLI)71.7%12.6%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
FDXF Return------17%-17%
Peers Return97%-28%85%4%-15%23%185%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%13%106%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
FDXF Win Rate-----33% 
Peers Win Rate73%40%68%50%47%48% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%50% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
FDXF Max Drawdown------ 
Peers Max Drawdown-22%-42%-24%-29%-44%-32% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: ODFL, XPO, SAIA, ARCB, TFII.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 10/30/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

FDXF has limited trading history. Below is the Industrials sector ETF (XLI) in its place.

EventXLIS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-15.8%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven18.8%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven34 days79 days
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-11.7%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven13.2%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven45 days24 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-20.1%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven25.1%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven125 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-41.6%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven71.2%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven231 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-23.7%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven31.1%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven120 days105 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-11.1%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven12.5%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven51 days62 days

Compare to ODFL, XPO, SAIA, ARCB, TFII

In The Past

State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -15.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 18.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

FDXF has limited trading history. Below is the Industrials sector ETF (XLI) in its place.

EventXLIS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-20.1%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven25.1%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven125 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-41.6%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven71.2%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven231 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-23.7%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven31.1%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven120 days105 days
2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion
  % Loss-22.5%-17.9%
  % Gain to Breakeven29.0%21.8%
  Time to Breakeven114 days123 days
2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis
  % Loss-60.5%-53.4%
  % Gain to Breakeven153.2%114.4%
  Time to Breakeven700 days1085 days

Compare to ODFL, XPO, SAIA, ARCB, TFII

In The Past

State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -15.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 18.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About FedEx Freight (FDXF)

FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. (FDXF) specializes in providing less-than-truckload (LTL) freight transportation services. This core business involves consolidating multiple smaller shipments from various customers onto a single truck, making it an efficient solution for businesses that do not have enough goods to fill an entire semi-trailer.

The company's primary service allows businesses to transport palletized freight and other general commodities cost-effectively, catering to a wide range of industries that require reliable shipping for volumes between parcel and full truckload. FedEx Freight operates an extensive network, serving customers across the United States, Canada, Mexico, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

AI Analysis | Feedback

1. Think of it as the UPS for business freight, specializing in combining smaller cargo loads that don't fill an entire truck.

2. It's the bridge between companies like FedEx Express (for packages) and full truckload carriers, handling larger B2B shipments that don't need a dedicated truck.

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  • Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) Freight Transportation: This service involves the movement of freight shipments that are too large for standard parcel services but do not require the entire capacity of a full truck trailer.

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AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key risks to the business of FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. (symbol: FDXF):

  1. Sensitivity to Economic Cycles and Fluctuations in Freight Demand: As a less-than-truckload (LTL) freight transportation provider, FedEx Freight's business is highly correlated with overall economic activity and industrial production. During economic downturns or periods of reduced consumer spending, freight volumes typically decrease, leading to lower demand for transportation services. Declining freight volumes often lead to underutilized trucks, directly impacting profitability. This can result in pricing pressures and a significant negative impact on the company's revenue and profitability. An "Economic Slowdown or Slow Recovery" is a top risk facing transportation and logistics organizations.
  2. Labor Shortages and Escalating Operating Costs: The freight transportation industry consistently faces challenges in recruiting, training, and retaining qualified drivers and other essential personnel. Increasing transportation costs are a pressing challenge in LTL shipping. Shortages of skilled labor, coupled with rising wage demands and increased benefit costs, can lead to higher operating expenses and reduced operational efficiency, potentially affecting service quality and profitability.
  3. Intense Competition and Pricing Pressures: The less-than-truckload market is highly competitive, characterized by a mix of national, regional, and specialized carriers. Reduced shipment volumes can increase competition among carriers, which can destabilize the market. This intense competition can lead to pricing pressures, making it difficult for the company to pass on cost increases or improve profit margins, especially as a company navigating an established market. "Increasing Competition" is identified as a top current risk for transportation and logistics organizations.

AI Analysis | Feedback

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AI Analysis | Feedback

The addressable markets for FedEx Freight's main service, less-than-truckload (LTL) freight transportation, are detailed below:

  • United States: The Less-than-Truck-Load market size in the United States was estimated at USD 118.68 billion in 2026. This market is projected to grow to USD 144.97 billion by 2031, with a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 4.08%.
  • Canada: The LTL market in Canada is approximately USD 7,643.49 million (or about USD 7.64 billion) in 2025. It is expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.59%.
  • Mexico: The LTL market in Mexico is valued at approximately USD 4,703.90 million (or about USD 4.70 billion) in 2025. This market is projected to expand at a CAGR of 5.21%.
  • Puerto Rico: The LTL market in Puerto Rico contributes an estimated USD 331.01 million. This market is driven by import-export intermodal logistics and has a CAGR of 4.11%.
  • U.S. Virgin Islands: null

AI Analysis | Feedback

FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. (FDXF) anticipates future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several strategic and market-related factors following its spin-off as an independent public company in June 2026.

Here are the key expected drivers of future revenue growth:

  1. Yield Improvement and Stronger Pricing Execution: A significant portion of FedEx Freight's projected revenue growth is expected to come from improved yield, supported by stronger pricing execution. The company reported an 11.5% increase in revenue per shipment and an 8.2% rise in revenue per hundredweight in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026. This trend, coupled with sustained higher fuel prices contributing to surcharges and more focused sales efforts as a standalone entity, is expected to support ongoing yield-based revenue growth.
  2. Growing Market Demand for LTL Services and Industrial Recovery: FedEx Freight is well-positioned to capitalize on the increasing market demand for Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) services. This demand is fueled by factors such as e-commerce expansion and evolving supply chain complexities. Furthermore, the company anticipates benefiting from an industrial recovery, as evidenced by improving manufacturing indicators. With approximately 30% spare capacity, FedEx Freight is equipped to absorb additional demand as the industrial sector rebounds.
  3. Strategic Focus and Service Differentiation as an Independent Company: As an independent public company, FedEx Freight is implementing a refined strategy concentrating on profitable growth and service differentiation. This separation from its former parent company is expected to enhance its ability to compete more effectively with other LTL carriers by allowing for a strategy specifically tailored to the LTL trucking industry. This focused approach aims to strengthen its competitive position and drive market share gains.

AI Analysis | Feedback

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Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

FDXFODFLXPOSAIAARCBTFIIMedian
NameFedEx Fr.Old Domi.XPO Saia ArcBest TFI Inte. 
Mkt Price125.82172.54189.62344.47125.4693.15149.18
Mkt Cap18.835.822.29.22.87.714.0
Rev LTM-5,6038,8353,5354,2048,3855,603
Op Inc LTM-1,448935378129624624
FCF LTM-1,115657279173575575
FCF 3Y Avg-97932-43111652111
CFO LTM-1,3941,132618282895895
CFO 3Y Avg-1,514983607290985983

Growth & Margins

FDXFODFLXPOSAIAARCBTFIIMedian
NameFedEx Fr.Old Domi.XPO Saia ArcBest TFI Inte. 
Rev Chg LTM--0.6%9.5%9.3%3.7%4.2%4.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg--2.0%5.1%8.4%-3.2%3.9%3.9%
Rev Chg Q-10.4%12.4%17.0%15.9%13.4%13.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-2.7%3.1%4.2%4.0%3.2%3.2%
Op Inc Chg LTM-1.1%32.4%-2.9%12.1%2.3%2.3%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg--5.0%26.0%-4.0%-17.1%-4.3%-4.3%
Op Mgn LTM-25.8%10.6%10.7%3.1%7.4%10.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-26.4%9.4%12.8%3.5%8.1%9.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.3%0.7%-0.3%0.7%0.3%0.7%
CFO/Rev LTM-24.9%12.8%17.5%6.7%10.7%12.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-26.4%11.8%18.3%6.9%12.0%12.0%
FCF/Rev LTM-19.9%7.4%7.9%4.1%6.9%7.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-17.1%0.2%-1.7%2.6%7.9%2.6%

Valuation

FDXFODFLXPOSAIAARCBTFIIMedian
NameFedEx Fr.Old Domi.XPO Saia ArcBest TFI Inte. 
Mkt Cap18.835.822.29.22.87.714.0
P/S-6.42.52.60.70.92.5
P/Op Inc-24.723.724.421.812.323.7
P/EBIT-24.725.224.180.112.724.7
P/E-32.944.132.6172.021.532.9
P/CFO-25.719.614.99.98.614.9
Total Yield-3.7%2.3%3.1%1.0%6.6%3.1%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.7%0.0%0.0%0.4%2.0%0.2%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-2.5%-0.5%-0.1%4.5%7.1%2.5%
D/E0.10.00.20.00.20.40.1
Net D/E0.1-0.00.20.00.10.40.1

Returns

FDXFODFLXPOSAIAARCBTFIIMedian
NameFedEx Fr.Old Domi.XPO Saia ArcBest TFI Inte. 
1M Rtn15.0%-0.7%7.8%3.2%-1.6%-22.3%1.2%
3M Rtn-10.5%-18.5%-5.6%-0.9%-13.0%-30.7%-11.7%
6M Rtn-16.7%-15.9%-11.9%-21.9%-0.1%-34.2%-16.3%
12M Rtn-16.7%26.5%39.5%21.5%77.4%8.3%24.0%
3Y Rtn-16.7%-6.8%150.1%-3.9%16.9%-11.8%-5.3%
1M Excs Rtn12.7%-4.1%4.5%-1.0%-4.2%-23.7%-2.6%
3M Excs Rtn-11.4%-20.2%-5.6%-6.2%-10.6%-32.5%-11.0%
6M Excs Rtn-23.8%-23.0%-19.0%-29.0%-7.2%-41.2%-23.4%
12M Excs Rtn-29.0%15.2%39.6%11.8%62.0%-6.3%13.5%
3Y Excs Rtn-101.5%-90.3%88.6%-91.9%-43.0%-95.1%-91.1%

Comparison Analyses

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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil2026202520242023
Priority5,5605,5845,9576,456
Economy2,8272,8913,0343,120
Other408417433508
Total8,7958,8929,42410,084


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$126.04 
Market Cap ($ Bil)18.8 
First Trading Date05/27/2026 
Distance from 52W High-33.1% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$118.83 
DMA Trenddown 
Distance from DMA6.1% 
 3M1YR
Volatility46.2%64.8%
Downside Capture211.72 
Upside Capture28.46 
Correlation (S&P 500)16.7% 
FDXF Betas & Captures as of 9/30/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta0.831.410.85-0.46-0.45-0.03
Up Beta-1.000.000.260.670.35-1.36
Down Beta0.241.240.110.510.52-0.73
Up Capture17%95%37%20%9%1%
Bmk +ve Days6162766132424
Stock +ve Days81726363636
Down Capture303%325%217%135%70%40%
Bmk -ve Days16263760120328
Stock -ve Days142538515151

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with FDXF
FDXF-16.6%64.8%-0.41-
Sector ETF (XLI)8.9%17.3%0.3212.6%
Equity (SPY)10.9%12.8%0.52-3.7%
Gold (GLD)-2.0%28.6%-0.08-8.9%
Commodities (DBC)48.2%20.6%1.79-8.4%
Real Estate (VNQ)10.2%13.7%0.4522.2%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-30.3%43.5%-0.71-12.1%

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Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with FDXF
FDXF-3.6%64.8%-0.41-
Sector ETF (XLI)11.4%17.6%0.4812.6%
Equity (SPY)12.2%17.1%0.53-3.7%
Gold (GLD)16.2%19.0%0.68-8.9%
Commodities (DBC)9.2%19.5%0.35-8.4%
Real Estate (VNQ)0.9%18.9%-0.0622.2%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)4.8%51.6%0.28-12.1%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with FDXF
FDXF-1.8%64.8%-0.41-
Sector ETF (XLI)13.2%20.1%0.5812.6%
Equity (SPY)15.2%17.9%0.72-3.7%
Gold (GLD)11.4%16.5%0.56-8.9%
Commodities (DBC)8.2%18.1%0.37-8.4%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.3%20.7%0.2122.2%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)61.7%66.2%1.01-12.1%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10152026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity6.3 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 930202614.0%
Average Daily Volume1.4 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.4 days
Basic Shares Quantity149.5 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares4.2%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 10/31/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/29/202614.9%  
6/25/2026-2.9%-4.9%-5.2%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive100
# Negative111
Median Positive14.9%  
Median Negative-2.9%-4.9%-5.2%
Max Positive14.9%  
Max Negative-2.9%-4.9%-5.2%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/29/202614.9%  
6/25/2026-2.9%-4.9%-5.2%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive100
# Negative111
Median Positive14.9%  
Median Negative-2.9%-4.9%-5.2%
Max Positive14.9%  
Max Negative-2.9%-4.9%-5.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
09/30/202610/29/202610-Q
05/31/202608/05/202610-K
11/30/202501/16/202610-12B
05/31/202511/14/2025DRS/A
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
09/30/202610/29/202610-Q
05/31/202608/05/202610-K
11/30/202501/16/202610-12B
05/31/202511/14/2025DRS/A

Recent Forward Guidance

Updated 10/30/2026

Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 10/29/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q4 2026 RevenueReported2.30 Bil2.33 Bil2.37 Bil   
Q4 2026 Operating IncomeReported80.00 Mil90.00 Mil100.00 Mil   
Q4 2026 Adjusted Operating IncomeReported185.00 Mil195.00 Mil205.00 Mil   
Q4 2026 Operating MarginReported3.5%3.85%4.2%   
Q4 2026 Adjusted Operating MarginReported8.0%8.3%8.6%   
Q4 2026 Interest ExpenseReported 55.00 Mil    
Q4 2026 Effective Tax RateReported 27.0%    
Q4 2026 Diluted EPS before MTM Retirement Plan Accounting AdjustmentsReported0.150.20.25   
Q4 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPSReported0.650.70.75   
Q4 2026 Outstanding Diluted Share CountReported 150.00 Mil    
2026 RevenueReported5.58 Bil5.62 Bil5.65 Bil4.9% RaisedGuidance: 5.36 Bil for 2026
2026 Operating IncomeReported465.00 Mil475.00 Mil485.00 Mil-4.0% LoweredGuidance: 495.00 Mil for 2026
2026 Adjusted Operating IncomeReported695.00 Mil705.00 Mil715.00 Mil12.8% RaisedGuidance: 625.00 Mil for 2026
2026 Operating MarginReported8.3%8.45%8.6% -0.8%LoweredGuidance: 9.25% for 2026
2026 Adjusted Operating MarginReported12.5%12.6%12.7% 0.8%RaisedGuidance: 11.75% for 2026
2026 Interest ExpenseReported 130.00 Mil -3.7% LoweredGuidance: 135.00 Mil for 2026
2026 Effective Tax RateReported 27.0%  1.0%RaisedGuidance: 26.0% for 2026
2026 Diluted EPS before MTM Retirement Plan Accounting AdjustmentsReported1.691.741.79-5.9% LoweredGuidance: 1.85 for 2026
2026 Adjusted Diluted EPSReported2.82.852.914.0% RaisedGuidance: 2.5 for 2026
2026 Outstanding Diluted Share CountReported 149.90 Mil 0.3% RaisedGuidance: 149.50 Mil for 2026
2026 Capital ExpendituresReported 365.00 Mil    

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Core Cache Last Updated: 10/30/2026