FedEx Freight (FDXF)
Market Price (7/10/2026): $154.5 | Market Cap: $23.0 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Industrials | Industry: Cargo Ground Transportation
FedEx Freight (FDXF)
Market Price (7/10/2026): $154.5Market Cap: $23.0 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Cargo Ground Transportation
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, Automation & Robotics, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Freight Technology, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -34%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -67% | Key risksFDXF key risks include [1] sensitivity to economic cycles and fluctuating freight demand, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, Automation & Robotics, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Freight Technology, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -34%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -67% |
| Key risksFDXF key risks include [1] sensitivity to economic cycles and fluctuating freight demand, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Updated on 7/7/2026
FedEx Freight (FDXF) stock has remained largely at the same level since it went public on 5/27/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Lingering headwinds in the Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) trucking industry contributed to weak demand and pricing. The sector faced "sluggish industrial end markets into the first half of 2026," leading to "weak pricing and soft volumes" for FedEx Freight. While demand improvement was anticipated later in 2026, the initial period post-IPO was marked by these challenging macroeconomic conditions.
2. The stock experienced significant price discovery and a correction from initial speculative highs. FedEx Freight (FDXF) exhibited considerable volatility immediately after its debut, with "when-issued" trading on May 27, 2026, seeing intraday highs near $200.00 before retracting to the $150.00–$175.00 range. The stock's regular-way trading commenced on June 1, 2026, with an opening price of $164.00. This early, elevated pricing appears to have adjusted to a more stable level, leading to the observed decline to approximately $153.07 by July 7, 2026.
Show more
FedEx Freight (FDXF) stock has remained largely at the same level since it went public on 5/27/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Lingering headwinds in the Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) trucking industry contributed to weak demand and pricing. The sector faced "sluggish industrial end markets into the first half of 2026," leading to "weak pricing and soft volumes" for FedEx Freight. While demand improvement was anticipated later in 2026, the initial period post-IPO was marked by these challenging macroeconomic conditions.
2. The stock experienced significant price discovery and a correction from initial speculative highs. FedEx Freight (FDXF) exhibited considerable volatility immediately after its debut, with "when-issued" trading on May 27, 2026, seeing intraday highs near $200.00 before retracting to the $150.00–$175.00 range. The stock's regular-way trading commenced on June 1, 2026, with an opening price of $164.00. This early, elevated pricing appears to have adjusted to a more stable level, leading to the observed decline to approximately $153.07 by July 7, 2026.
Show more
Updated on 7/7/2026
FedEx Freight (FDXF) stock has remained largely at the same level since it went public on 5/27/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Lingering headwinds in the Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) trucking industry contributed to weak demand and pricing. The sector faced "sluggish industrial end markets into the first half of 2026," leading to "weak pricing and soft volumes" for FedEx Freight. While demand improvement was anticipated later in 2026, the initial period post-IPO was marked by these challenging macroeconomic conditions.
2. The stock experienced significant price discovery and a correction from initial speculative highs. FedEx Freight (FDXF) exhibited considerable volatility immediately after its debut, with "when-issued" trading on May 27, 2026, seeing intraday highs near $200.00 before retracting to the $150.00–$175.00 range. The stock's regular-way trading commenced on June 1, 2026, with an opening price of $164.00. This early, elevated pricing appears to have adjusted to a more stable level, leading to the observed decline to approximately $153.07 by July 7, 2026.
3. Initial financial assessments highlighted concerns regarding profitability and balance sheet structure. Early analyses indicated "thin profitability" for FedEx Freight, with an EBIT margin of around 3.8% on quarterly revenue of $1.99 billion for the period ending fiscal Q3 2026 (February 28, 2026), which was noted as lagging "best‑in‑class LTL peers". Furthermore, the company's balance sheet showed "negative equity (BVPS –$8.64) and $5.7B non‑current liabilities," raising initial concerns about financial risk.
4. The retained 19.9% stake by FedEx Corporation created a potential supply overhang. FedEx Corporation chose to retain 19.9% of FedEx Freight's outstanding shares, with plans to monetize this stake over approximately two years. This strategic decision introduced a "potential supply overhang" in the market, as investors might have anticipated future sales of these shares, which could exert downward pressure on the stock price.
Show less
FedEx Freight (FDXF) stock has remained largely at the same level since it went public on 5/27/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Lingering headwinds in the Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) trucking industry contributed to weak demand and pricing. The sector faced "sluggish industrial end markets into the first half of 2026," leading to "weak pricing and soft volumes" for FedEx Freight. While demand improvement was anticipated later in 2026, the initial period post-IPO was marked by these challenging macroeconomic conditions.
2. The stock experienced significant price discovery and a correction from initial speculative highs. FedEx Freight (FDXF) exhibited considerable volatility immediately after its debut, with "when-issued" trading on May 27, 2026, seeing intraday highs near $200.00 before retracting to the $150.00–$175.00 range. The stock's regular-way trading commenced on June 1, 2026, with an opening price of $164.00. This early, elevated pricing appears to have adjusted to a more stable level, leading to the observed decline to approximately $153.07 by July 7, 2026.
3. Initial financial assessments highlighted concerns regarding profitability and balance sheet structure. Early analyses indicated "thin profitability" for FedEx Freight, with an EBIT margin of around 3.8% on quarterly revenue of $1.99 billion for the period ending fiscal Q3 2026 (February 28, 2026), which was noted as lagging "best‑in‑class LTL peers". Furthermore, the company's balance sheet showed "negative equity (BVPS –$8.64) and $5.7B non‑current liabilities," raising initial concerns about financial risk.
4. The retained 19.9% stake by FedEx Corporation created a potential supply overhang. FedEx Corporation chose to retain 19.9% of FedEx Freight's outstanding shares, with plans to monetize this stake over approximately two years. This strategic decision introduced a "potential supply overhang" in the market, as investors might have anticipated future sales of these shares, which could exert downward pressure on the stock price.
Show less
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FDXF | ||
| Market (SPY) | 15.6% | 3.6% |
| Sector (XLI) | 12.0% | 11.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FDXF | ||
| Market (SPY) | 10.5% | 3.6% |
| Sector (XLI) | 17.1% | 11.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FDXF | ||
| Market (SPY) | 22.7% | 3.6% |
| Sector (XLI) | 24.0% | 11.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FDXF | ||
| Market (SPY) | 75.6% | 3.6% |
| Sector (XLI) | 75.8% | 11.4% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| FDXF Return | - | - | - | - | - | -5% | -5% |
| Peers Return | 97% | -28% | 85% | 4% | -15% | 52% | 250% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 9% | 99% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| FDXF Win Rate | - | - | - | - | - | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 73% | 40% | 68% | 50% | 47% | 66% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 43% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| FDXF Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -22% | -42% | -24% | -29% | -44% | -21% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: ODFL, XPO, SAIA, ARCB, TFII.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/9/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
FDXF has limited trading history. Below is the Industrials sector ETF (XLI) in its place.
| Event | XLI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -15.8% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.8% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -11.7% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.2% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 45 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -20.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 125 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -41.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 71.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 231 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -23.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.1% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 120 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -11.1% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.5% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 51 days | 62 days |
In The Past
State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -15.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 18.8% gain to breakeven.
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FDXF has limited trading history. Below is the Industrials sector ETF (XLI) in its place.
| Event | XLI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -20.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 125 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -41.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 71.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 231 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -23.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.1% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 120 days | 105 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -22.5% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.0% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 114 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -60.5% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 153.2% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 700 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -15.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 18.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About FedEx Freight (FDXF)
FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. (FDXF) specializes in providing less-than-truckload (LTL) freight transportation services. This core business involves consolidating multiple smaller shipments from various customers onto a single truck, making it an efficient solution for businesses that do not have enough goods to fill an entire semi-trailer.
The company's primary service allows businesses to transport palletized freight and other general commodities cost-effectively, catering to a wide range of industries that require reliable shipping for volumes between parcel and full truckload. FedEx Freight operates an extensive network, serving customers across the United States, Canada, Mexico, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
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1. Think of it as the UPS for business freight, specializing in combining smaller cargo loads that don't fill an entire truck.
2. It's the bridge between companies like FedEx Express (for packages) and full truckload carriers, handling larger B2B shipments that don't need a dedicated truck.
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- Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) Freight Transportation: This service involves the movement of freight shipments that are too large for standard parcel services but do not require the entire capacity of a full truck trailer.
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Here are the key risks to the business of FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. (symbol: FDXF):
- Sensitivity to Economic Cycles and Fluctuations in Freight Demand: As a less-than-truckload (LTL) freight transportation provider, FedEx Freight's business is highly correlated with overall economic activity and industrial production. During economic downturns or periods of reduced consumer spending, freight volumes typically decrease, leading to lower demand for transportation services. Declining freight volumes often lead to underutilized trucks, directly impacting profitability. This can result in pricing pressures and a significant negative impact on the company's revenue and profitability. An "Economic Slowdown or Slow Recovery" is a top risk facing transportation and logistics organizations.
- Labor Shortages and Escalating Operating Costs: The freight transportation industry consistently faces challenges in recruiting, training, and retaining qualified drivers and other essential personnel. Increasing transportation costs are a pressing challenge in LTL shipping. Shortages of skilled labor, coupled with rising wage demands and increased benefit costs, can lead to higher operating expenses and reduced operational efficiency, potentially affecting service quality and profitability.
- Intense Competition and Pricing Pressures: The less-than-truckload market is highly competitive, characterized by a mix of national, regional, and specialized carriers. Reduced shipment volumes can increase competition among carriers, which can destabilize the market. This intense competition can lead to pricing pressures, making it difficult for the company to pass on cost increases or improve profit margins, especially as a company navigating an established market. "Increasing Competition" is identified as a top current risk for transportation and logistics organizations.
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The addressable markets for FedEx Freight's main service, less-than-truckload (LTL) freight transportation, are detailed below:
- United States: The Less-than-Truck-Load market size in the United States was estimated at USD 118.68 billion in 2026. This market is projected to grow to USD 144.97 billion by 2031, with a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 4.08%.
- Canada: The LTL market in Canada is approximately USD 7,643.49 million (or about USD 7.64 billion) in 2025. It is expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.59%.
- Mexico: The LTL market in Mexico is valued at approximately USD 4,703.90 million (or about USD 4.70 billion) in 2025. This market is projected to expand at a CAGR of 5.21%.
- Puerto Rico: The LTL market in Puerto Rico contributes an estimated USD 331.01 million. This market is driven by import-export intermodal logistics and has a CAGR of 4.11%.
- U.S. Virgin Islands: null
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FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. (FDXF) anticipates future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several strategic and market-related factors following its spin-off as an independent public company in June 2026.
Here are the key expected drivers of future revenue growth:
- Yield Improvement and Stronger Pricing Execution: A significant portion of FedEx Freight's projected revenue growth is expected to come from improved yield, supported by stronger pricing execution. The company reported an 11.5% increase in revenue per shipment and an 8.2% rise in revenue per hundredweight in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026. This trend, coupled with sustained higher fuel prices contributing to surcharges and more focused sales efforts as a standalone entity, is expected to support ongoing yield-based revenue growth.
- Growing Market Demand for LTL Services and Industrial Recovery: FedEx Freight is well-positioned to capitalize on the increasing market demand for Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) services. This demand is fueled by factors such as e-commerce expansion and evolving supply chain complexities. Furthermore, the company anticipates benefiting from an industrial recovery, as evidenced by improving manufacturing indicators. With approximately 30% spare capacity, FedEx Freight is equipped to absorb additional demand as the industrial sector rebounds.
- Strategic Focus and Service Differentiation as an Independent Company: As an independent public company, FedEx Freight is implementing a refined strategy concentrating on profitable growth and service differentiation. This separation from its former parent company is expected to enhance its ability to compete more effectively with other LTL carriers by allowing for a strategy specifically tailored to the LTL trucking industry. This focused approach aims to strengthen its competitive position and drive market share gains.
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Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 181.14 |
| Mkt Cap | 12.3 |
| Rev LTM | 5,456 |
| Op Inc LTM | 537 |
| FCF LTM | 458 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 83 |
| CFO LTM | 906 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 864 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -1.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -1.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 2.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.6% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -19.7% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -9.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 9.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 12.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.0% |
Price Behavior
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FDXF Betas & Captures as of 6/30/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.54 | 0.21 | 3.48 | 1.25 | 0.85 | 1.70 |
| Up Beta | -1.46 | -7.42 | 8.39 | -2.38 | -1.64 | -1.71 |
| Down Beta | -1.81 | 2.60 | 0.53 | -3.96 | -1.55 | -2.91 |
| Up Capture | -20% | 25% | 12% | 7% | 3% | 0% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Down Capture | 45% | 36% | 31% | 13% | 9% | 5% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with FDXF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDXF | 2.2% | 99.7% | 0.60 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 23.0% | 16.7% | 1.07 | 11.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 22.3% | 12.5% | 1.33 | 3.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.4% | 27.8% | 0.77 | 12.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 23.6% | 18.7% | 1.00 | -2.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.2% | 13.9% | 0.65 | 12.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -42.8% | 42.8% | -1.18 | -4.7% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with FDXF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDXF | 0.4% | 99.7% | 0.60 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.7% | 17.6% | 0.61 | 11.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.4% | 17.1% | 0.61 | 3.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.0% | 18.3% | 0.80 | 12.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.5% | 19.5% | 0.28 | -2.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.9% | 18.9% | 0.06 | 12.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 12.3% | 53.5% | 0.42 | -4.7% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with FDXF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDXF | 0.2% | 99.7% | 0.60 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 14.8% | 20.0% | 0.65 | 11.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.8% | 17.9% | 0.75 | 3.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.7% | 16.1% | 0.59 | 12.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 6.1% | 18.0% | 0.27 | -2.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 12.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.0% | 66.2% | 0.98 | -4.7% |
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Earnings Returns History
Updated 7/7/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 6/25/2026 | -2.9% | -4.9% | |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | -2.9% | -4.9% | |
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | -2.9% | -4.9% | |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 6/25/2026 | -2.9% | -4.9% | |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | -2.9% | -4.9% | |
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | -2.9% | -4.9% | |
Industry Resources
| Industrials Resources |
| IndustryWeek |
| Manufacturing.net |
| Aviation Week |
| Cargo Ground Transportation Resources |
| Transport Topics |
| Commercial Carrier Journal (CCJ) |
| FreightWaves |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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Core Cache Last Updated: 7/9/2026