Tearsheet

Duolingo (DUOL)


Market Price (12/8/2025): $201.0 | Market Cap: $9.2 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Education Services

Duolingo (DUOL)


Market Price (12/8/2025): $201.0
Market Cap: $9.2 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Education Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 40%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -56%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 15x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 140x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 41x
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12%
 
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cloud Computing, Artificial Intelligence, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more.
  
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 40%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cloud Computing, Artificial Intelligence, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -56%
4 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12%
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 15x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 140x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 41x

Valuation, Metrics & Events

DUOL Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The search results indicate that Duolingo (DUOL) stock has experienced significant volatility and a notable drop in the latter part of 2025, including a "43% Drop in 2025" and a "64% from its previous peak". While initial reports in August 2025 showed strong performance and stock surges due to positive Q2 earnings and AI advancements, later news, particularly in September, November, and December 2025, highlights factors that would contribute to a significant decline. Here are the key points for the stock movement: 1. **Increased Competition from AI (GPT-5) and Google's AI-driven tools**: After an initial surge following strong Q2 2025 results, Duolingo's shares reversed course due to fears of competition from OpenAI's GPT-5, which launched a custom web app to teach French. By September 3, 2025, Duolingo shares fell due to intensifying competition from Google's AI-driven language tools.

2. **Disappointing Q4 2025 Profit Outlook**: Despite reporting strong Q3 2025 earnings that surpassed revenue estimates (reported November 5, 2025), Duolingo's stock experienced a decline as its fourth-quarter EBITDA forecast fell short of analyst projections. This signaled potential margin pressure, leading investors to sell off the stock.

3. **Shift in Strategy Prioritizing User Growth Over Near-Term Monetization**: Duolingo's change in strategy to focus on teaching quality and user growth rather than immediate monetization efforts raised concerns among investors about the potential impact on near-term earnings, potentially causing a temporary slowdown in monetization. This was highlighted in analyst reports in November and December 2025.

4. **Analyst Downgrades and Price Target Reductions**: Several financial institutions revised their ratings and price targets for Duolingo. For example, Wells Fargo issued a low price target of $185 on November 6, 2025. KeyCorp downgraded Duolingo from an "overweight" to a "sector weight" rating on November 6, 2025. Needham & Company LLC and Scotiabank also dropped their price objectives in November 2025. DA Davidson reduced its price target from $220.00 to $205.00 on December 3, 2025. Goldman Sachs also lowered its price target on November 7, 2025.

5. **Legal Risks / Class-Action Investigation**: A pending class-action investigation was cited as a factor contributing to the decline in Duolingo's shares on September 3, 2025.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
DUOL Return---33%219%43%-42%78%
Peers Return28%-4%-20%41%-11%-24%-7%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
DUOL Win Rate-40%50%58%58%40% 
Peers Win Rate30%37%43%62%42%50% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
DUOL Max Drawdown---41%-0%-30%-48% 
Peers Max Drawdown-18%-19%-41%-22%-47%-36% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: COUR, UDMY, CHGG, LRN, ATGE.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/5/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventDUOLS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-68.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven221.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven547 days464 days

Compare to CVLT, ACIW, BLKB, HI, ARRY


In The Past

Duolingo's stock fell -68.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/23/2021. A -68.9% loss requires a 221.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Duolingo (DUOL)

Better Bets than Duolingo (DUOL)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to DUOL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
8.2%8.2%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.9%1.9%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.8%-1.8%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
8.8%8.8%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.3%5.3%-1.6%
DUOL_11072025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11072025DUOLDuolingoDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-0.7%-0.7%-16.5%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
8.2%8.2%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.9%1.9%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.8%-1.8%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
8.8%8.8%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.3%5.3%-1.6%
DUOL_11072025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11072025DUOLDuolingoDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-0.7%-0.7%-16.5%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Duolingo

Peers to compare with:

Financials

DUOLCOURUDMYCHGGLRNATGEMedian
NameDuolingo Coursera Udemy Chegg Stride Adtalem . 
Mkt Price199.758.445.240.8962.6894.5435.56
Mkt Cap9.21.40.80.12.73.42.1
Rev LTM9647407964482,4751,833880
Op Inc LTM106-70-5-10844135850
FCF LTM348103648312323208
FCF 3Y Avg227571689223243156
CFO LTM3641228243379379243
CFO 3Y Avg2447431157287288200

Growth & Margins

DUOLCOURUDMYCHGGLRNATGEMedian
NameDuolingo Coursera Udemy Chegg Stride Adtalem . 
Rev Chg LTM39.9%8.1%2.5%-32.4%17.3%12.2%10.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg41.7%14.4%10.1%-15.6%13.1%8.2%11.6%
Rev Chg Q41.1%10.3%0.1%-43.1%12.7%10.8%10.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM8.9%2.5%0.0%-11.6%2.9%2.5%2.5%
Op Mgn LTM11.0%-9.4%-0.7%-24.1%17.8%19.5%5.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg3.8%-17.7%-10.8%-12.2%14.1%17.1%-3.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM1.5%1.1%2.3%-0.9%0.4%0.3%0.7%
CFO/Rev LTM37.7%16.5%10.3%9.5%15.3%20.7%15.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg32.7%10.5%3.8%23.5%13.1%17.3%15.2%
FCF/Rev LTM36.0%13.9%8.1%1.7%12.6%17.6%13.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg30.3%7.9%1.8%12.8%10.1%14.5%11.5%

Valuation

DUOLCOURUDMYCHGGLRNATGEMedian
NameDuolingo Coursera Udemy Chegg Stride Adtalem . 
Mkt Cap9.21.40.80.12.73.42.1
P/S15.32.61.30.22.63.02.6
P/EBIT139.5-27.7290.8-1.415.315.515.4
P/E38.3-42.1-281.9-1.320.522.19.6
P/CFO40.615.812.92.317.014.715.3
Total Yield2.6%-2.4%-0.4%-79.5%4.9%4.5%1.1%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg1.9%3.6%1.8%24.4%6.1%7.9%4.8%
D/E0.00.00.00.90.10.10.1
Net D/E-0.1-0.4-0.3-0.1-0.00.1-0.1

Returns

DUOLCOURUDMYCHGGLRNATGEMedian
NameDuolingo Coursera Udemy Chegg Stride Adtalem . 
1M Rtn-0.7%2.3%1.7%-0.1%-13.0%-0.4%-0.2%
3M Rtn-26.3%-25.0%-21.6%-48.0%-61.0%-29.7%-28.0%
6M Rtn-61.1%-5.5%-31.1%-45.4%-56.9%-26.3%-38.2%
12M Rtn-45.8%2.3%-37.6%-62.9%-43.2%3.7%-40.4%
3Y Rtn190.1%-33.7%-58.0%-96.8%90.3%144.0%28.3%
1M Excs Rtn-24.3%3.0%-2.6%-4.4%-13.9%-4.1%-4.2%
3M Excs Rtn-32.1%-33.0%-28.6%-48.7%-67.7%-36.4%-34.7%
6M Excs Rtn-75.6%-20.0%-45.6%-59.9%-71.4%-40.8%-52.7%
12M Excs Rtn-58.2%-11.9%-51.6%-77.2%-56.6%-9.4%-54.1%
3Y Excs Rtn118.3%-107.8%-131.5%-165.4%8.6%58.9%-49.6%

Comparison Analyses

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity5,364,843
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202516.8%
Average Daily Volume3,483,471
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.54
Basic Shares Quantity45,950,000
Short % of Basic Shares11.7%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/5/2025-25.5%-28.2% 
8/6/202513.7%-4.6%-21.1%
2/27/2025-17.0%-27.4%-16.2%
11/6/2024-1.0%1.4%15.6%
8/7/202410.9%22.1%29.0%
5/8/2024-18.0%-27.5%-22.8%
2/28/202422.2%8.6%12.8%
11/8/202321.4%22.6%28.4%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive11910
# Negative687
Median Positive10.9%12.8%26.6%
Median Negative-15.2%-11.4%-18.6%
Max Positive34.0%36.3%50.9%
Max Negative-25.5%-28.2%-35.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025502202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024228202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023229202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231109202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023809202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023510202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022301202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221114202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022805202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022513202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021304202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

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 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Chen Stephen C.General Counsel11192025Sell177.951,282228,1325,882,315Form
1Skaruppa MatthewChief Financial Officer11192025Sell177.952,799498,0827,215,161Form
2Glance NatalieChief Engineering Officer11192025Sell177.952,534450,92520,221,704Form
3Meese RobertChief Business Officer11182025Sell177.951,444256,96022,001,026Form