Duolingo (DUOL)
Market Price (12/8/2025): $201.0 | Market Cap: $9.2 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Education Services
Duolingo (DUOL)
Market Price (12/8/2025): $201.0Market Cap: $9.2 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Education Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 40% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -56% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 15x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 140x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 41x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, Artificial Intelligence, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 40% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, Artificial Intelligence, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -56% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 15x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 140x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 41x |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
DUOL Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The search results indicate that Duolingo (DUOL) stock has experienced significant volatility and a notable drop in the latter part of 2025, including a "43% Drop in 2025" and a "64% from its previous peak". While initial reports in August 2025 showed strong performance and stock surges due to positive Q2 earnings and AI advancements, later news, particularly in September, November, and December 2025, highlights factors that would contribute to a significant decline.
Here are the key points for the stock movement:
1. **Increased Competition from AI (GPT-5) and Google's AI-driven tools**: After an initial surge following strong Q2 2025 results, Duolingo's shares reversed course due to fears of competition from OpenAI's GPT-5, which launched a custom web app to teach French. By September 3, 2025, Duolingo shares fell due to intensifying competition from Google's AI-driven language tools.
2. **Disappointing Q4 2025 Profit Outlook**: Despite reporting strong Q3 2025 earnings that surpassed revenue estimates (reported November 5, 2025), Duolingo's stock experienced a decline as its fourth-quarter EBITDA forecast fell short of analyst projections. This signaled potential margin pressure, leading investors to sell off the stock.
3. **Shift in Strategy Prioritizing User Growth Over Near-Term Monetization**: Duolingo's change in strategy to focus on teaching quality and user growth rather than immediate monetization efforts raised concerns among investors about the potential impact on near-term earnings, potentially causing a temporary slowdown in monetization. This was highlighted in analyst reports in November and December 2025.
4. **Analyst Downgrades and Price Target Reductions**: Several financial institutions revised their ratings and price targets for Duolingo. For example, Wells Fargo issued a low price target of $185 on November 6, 2025. KeyCorp downgraded Duolingo from an "overweight" to a "sector weight" rating on November 6, 2025. Needham & Company LLC and Scotiabank also dropped their price objectives in November 2025. DA Davidson reduced its price target from $220.00 to $205.00 on December 3, 2025. Goldman Sachs also lowered its price target on November 7, 2025.
5. **Legal Risks / Class-Action Investigation**: A pending class-action investigation was cited as a factor contributing to the decline in Duolingo's shares on September 3, 2025.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| DUOL Return | - | - | -33% | 219% | 43% | -42% | 78% |
| Peers Return | 28% | -4% | -20% | 41% | -11% | -24% | -7% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| DUOL Win Rate | - | 40% | 50% | 58% | 58% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 30% | 37% | 43% | 62% | 42% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| DUOL Max Drawdown | - | - | -41% | -0% | -30% | -48% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -18% | -19% | -41% | -22% | -47% | -36% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: COUR, UDMY, CHGG, LRN, ATGE.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/5/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | DUOL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -68.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 221.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 547 days | 464 days |
Compare to CVLT, ACIW, BLKB, HI, ARRY
In The Past
Duolingo's stock fell -68.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/23/2021. A -68.9% loss requires a 221.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to DUOL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.2% | 8.2% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.9% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.8% | -1.8% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.8% | 8.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.3% | 5.3% | -1.6% |
| 11072025 | DUOL | Duolingo | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.7% | -0.7% | -16.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.2% | 8.2% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.9% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.8% | -1.8% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.8% | 8.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.3% | 5.3% | -1.6% |
| 11072025 | DUOL | Duolingo | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.7% | -0.7% | -16.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Duolingo
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 35.56 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.1 |
| Rev LTM | 880 |
| Op Inc LTM | 50 |
| FCF LTM | 208 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 156 |
| CFO LTM | 243 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 200 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 11.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 10.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 5.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -3.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 15.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 13.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.1 |
| P/S | 2.6 |
| P/EBIT | 15.4 |
| P/E | 9.6 |
| P/CFO | 15.3 |
| Total Yield | 1.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.8% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -28.0% |
| 6M Rtn | -38.2% |
| 12M Rtn | -40.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 28.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -4.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -34.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -52.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -54.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -49.6% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/5/2025 | -25.5% | -28.2% | |
| 8/6/2025 | 13.7% | -4.6% | -21.1% |
| 2/27/2025 | -17.0% | -27.4% | -16.2% |
| 11/6/2024 | -1.0% | 1.4% | 15.6% |
| 8/7/2024 | 10.9% | 22.1% | 29.0% |
| 5/8/2024 | -18.0% | -27.5% | -22.8% |
| 2/28/2024 | 22.2% | 8.6% | 12.8% |
| 11/8/2023 | 21.4% | 22.6% | 28.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 9 | 10 |
| # Negative | 6 | 8 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 10.9% | 12.8% | 26.6% |
| Median Negative | -15.2% | -11.4% | -18.6% |
| Max Positive | 34.0% | 36.3% | 50.9% |
| Max Negative | -25.5% | -28.2% | -35.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5022025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2282025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3012023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11142022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5132022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3042022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Chen Stephen C. | General Counsel | 11192025 | Sell | 177.95 | 1,282 | 228,132 | 5,882,315 | Form |
| 1 | Skaruppa Matthew | Chief Financial Officer | 11192025 | Sell | 177.95 | 2,799 | 498,082 | 7,215,161 | Form |
| 2 | Glance Natalie | Chief Engineering Officer | 11192025 | Sell | 177.95 | 2,534 | 450,925 | 20,221,704 | Form |
| 3 | Meese Robert | Chief Business Officer | 11182025 | Sell | 177.95 | 1,444 | 256,960 | 22,001,026 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |